Time Frame For Crash?

[PovertyRow]

It's delightful!

 

It's delicious!

 

It's delovely!

 

[ninanina]

delovely?

 

What the [!@#%^&^] is that?

[ninanina]

I mean...what is that?

[PovertyRow]

delovely?

 

What the [!@#%^&^] is that?

 

Cole Porter, man! Cole Porter!

 

::edited because I typoed the first "Cole" ...Cloe?::

[Aman619]

SHEESH! huh pov?

these kids know who Crusher Creel is, but not classic lyrics like "...Its delovely!"

[FlyingDonut]

hey Donut (I just love saying that!) I visited your site awhile back, but it dow=esnt seem up to date... do you update it all the time? Or mail out catalogues? or just do shows???

 

I haven't updated it in quite some time as my inventory turns too fast (a problem to have, I know). I almost exclusively do eBay these days, I'll do the occasional show if I get a lot of new stuff in. I do sell comics, though.

[FlyingDonut]

When you are so focused on being right that you ignore 99% of the marketplace to prove your point, you might want to rethink your views.

 

Lets just re-cap here. You sell comic books right?

 

Yes, and I'll stand by that statement, that 99% of all back issue comic sales are ungraded.

[delekkerste]

The problem with all of the crash theorists, as I've told Gene, is that none of you will DEFINE this crash. So everyone takes it to mean something different. I absolutely believe that modern [!@#%^&^] that is selling for stupid money i.e. the UFF 1 CGC 10 and DD 131 CGC 9.8 will crash. I absolutely believe that there will not be a unilateral crash of every genre, every age and every grade. You probably don't either. But you crash theorists make it sound so all-encompassing by your refusal to properly define what the hell it is you're arguing about.

 

Is it that the "crash theorists" haven't "properly defined what it is they're arguing about", or is it that you and others just don't like what they're saying? It seems like most people are willing to accept the notion that certain comics are going to crash...just not what they collect. IMO, it's bordering on delusional to believe that a crash in one area of the market won't have repercussions in other areas. Somebody used the example of how the dot-com and tech stocks crashed but the blue chips fared OK when the bubble popped. Oh, really? Sure, the blue chips fared better than the Nasdaq, but guess what? The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn't hit a new high since January 2000 and General Electric (the "Action #1" of blue chip stocks) is currently selling for only half of its peak value.

 

I believe the vast majority of the market (80% or more) will be affected by the forces I have described that will precipitate a crash or deep correction. It could be a quick decline or it could be drawn out over a number of years - no one can say for sure. I get the feeling that you're looking for a sense of false precision that no one can give you, i.e., these are the exact books that are going to be affected, these are the exact reasons why they are going to fall in value, these are the exact amounts that they are going to decline in value and this is the exact time the decline will start. This is information nobody can give you.

 

In the end, I'm metaphysically certain that it wouldn't make a whit of difference anyway. Let's face it - most people are too emotionally and/or financially vested in their collections to see a crash coming even if Marty McFly came back from the future in his DeLorean and told them exactly when and how the comic market would crash.

[FlyingDonut]

The problem with all of the crash theorists, as I've told Gene, is that none of you will DEFINE this crash. So everyone takes it to mean something different. I absolutely believe that modern [!@#%^&^] that is selling for stupid money i.e. the UFF 1 CGC 10 and DD 131 CGC 9.8 will crash. I absolutely believe that there will not be a unilateral crash of every genre, every age and every grade. You probably don't either. But you crash theorists make it sound so all-encompassing by your refusal to properly define what the hell it is you're arguing about.

 

Is it that the "crash theorists" haven't "properly defined what it is they're arguing about", or is it that you and others just don't like what they're saying? It seems like most people are willing to accept the notion that certain comics are going to crash...just not what they collect. IMO, it's bordering on delusional to believe that a crash in one area of the market won't have repercussions in other areas. Somebody used the example of how the dot-com and tech stocks crashed but the blue chips fared OK when the bubble popped. Oh, really? Sure, the blue chips fared better than the Nasdaq, but guess what? The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn't hit a new high since January 2000 and General Electric (the "Action #1" of blue chip stocks) is currently selling for only half of its peak value.

 

I believe the vast majority of comics (80% or more) of the market will be affected by the forces I have described that will precipitate a crash or deep correction. It could be a quick decline or it could be drawn out over a number of years - no one can say for sure. I get the feeling that you're looking for a sense of false precision that no one can give you, i.e., these are the exact books that are going to be affected, these are the exact reasons why they are going to fall in value, these are the exact amounts that they are going to decline in value and this is the exact time the decline will start. This is information nobody can give you.

 

In the end, I'm metaphysically certain that it wouldn't make a whit of difference anyway. Let's face it - most people are too emotionally and/or financially vested in their collections to see a crash coming even if Marty McFly came back from the future in his DeLorean and told them exactly when and how the comic market would crash.

 

I believe the vast majority of comics (80% or more) of the market will be affected by the forces I have described that will precipitate a crash or deep correction.

 

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books, mainly because they aren't high priced. Will we see a deep correction on overpriced, across the board CGC books? Probably. Will we see a deep correction on Fantastic Four 72 in VG? Probably not.

[joe_collector]

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books.

 

I agree with this, and just like the other market crashes in sportscards and coins, only those items that have been affected by the slabbing business will see a downward trend.

 

If you want to get a good feel for what's going to happen, look up what comics were selling for online in 1999-2000 (not Guide) and then see what the same books go for now. The only thing that has really changed since 1999-2000 is the CGC wave and the monstrous influx of brain-dead speculators.

 

The difference is what I call the "CGC Effect" and the old 2000 price will be the ceiling when the pre-CGC Speculative Bubble bursts, and many books, key and otherwise, will drop even lower.

[FlyingDonut]

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books.

 

I agree with this, and just like the other market crashes in sportscards and coins, only those items that have been affected by the slabbing business will see a downward trend.

 

If you want to get a good feel for what's going to happen, look up what comics were selling for online in 1999-2000 (not Guide) and then see what the same books go for now. The only thing that has really changed since 1999-2000 is the CGC wave and the monstrous influx of brain-dead speculators.

 

The difference is what I call the "CGC Effect" and the old 2000 price will be the ceiling when the pre-CGC Speculative Bubble bursts, and many books, key and otherwise, will drop even lower.

 

I agree with this, and just like the other market crashes in sportscards and coins, only those items that have been affected by the slabbing business will see a downward trend.

 

Exactly.

[jduran1]

Joe C why would you wish for a crash and actually predict one when that would of course hurt all of us on this forum. Now on to my response to the crash.

 

Major price adjustments may occur in Modern comics only. Bronze and Silver etc will see little bumps here and there but there is hugh demand and little supply for these high grade books. 9.4 and above. If we do have a crash in moderns, we can all look back at Michael Turner and DC with its multiple prints 2nd, 3rd, etc being the reason. I wish Marvel would have stayed with their no reprint policy. Low print runs is always good.

[joe_collector]

Joe C why would you wish for a crash and actually predict one when that would of course hurt all of us on this forum.

 

You've answered your own question.

 

Whenever the market is so hyped up over prices and valuation, rather than content and collectibility, then a crash is guaranteed. This sort of mindset is one of the major ingredients of any bubble.

 

Personally speaking, if my Bronze Age books suddenly become worthless, I could care less, as I collect not speculate. They'll never be worthless to me.

 

P.S. Some people on here may have noticed, but I've virtually stopped bidding on comics, and have not bought anything privately for about a month. I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and patiently waiting out this insanity.

[drbanner]

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books.

 

I agree with this, and just like the other market crashes in sportscards and coins, only those items that have been affected by the slabbing business will see a downward trend.

 

If you want to get a good feel for what's going to happen, look up what comics were selling for online in 1999-2000 (not Guide) and then see what the same books go for now. The only thing that has really changed since 1999-2000 is the CGC wave and the monstrous influx of brain-dead speculators.

 

The difference is what I call the "CGC Effect" and the old 2000 price will be the ceiling when the pre-CGC Speculative Bubble bursts, and many books, key and otherwise, will drop even lower.

 

I agree with this, and just like the other market crashes in sportscards and coins, only those items that have been affected by the slabbing business will see a downward trend.

 

Exactly.

 

Good...since there really has never been a premium on any slabbed book below 9.0, and since the market for slabbed 9.4+ "modern commons" (published between 1975 and 2001) has already crashed, we're left with the following books headed for impending doom:

 

1) CGC 9.9+ copies of the "hot book of the month" like USM 1; and

2) 9.4 or better gold and silver and early bronze.

 

So 9.4 or better gold and silver and early bronze age books are going to be the segment of the market that collapses? These are the books that have far out-gained the rest of the hobby in value since CGC's inception, so according to the theory above, these are the books that are going to crash, right?

[PovertyRow]

P.S. Some people on here may have noticed, but I've virtually stopped bidding on comics, and have not bought anything privately for about a month. I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and patiently waiting out this insanity.

 

Wait now. I thought you were bent out of shape over in Marketplace because you wasted your time preparing a Want List for someone who had a large number of HG books to sell, and then announced the books were already sold.

[delekkerste]

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books, mainly because they aren't high priced. Will we see a deep correction on overpriced, across the board CGC books? Probably. Will we see a deep correction on Fantastic Four 72 in VG? Probably not.

 

That's 80% of high-grade books. Jeez - when I refer to "the market" and "speculative bubbles", of course I'm only talking about high grade - that's so obvious that I don't bother clarifying this fact every time I post (I have stated as much several times in the past, though)! I don't know too many people who speculate on VG late SA Fantastic Fours.

 

That said, however, I do believe the low/mid grade sector will be somewhat impacted because the potential rate of return of *all assets* are interrelated. Do I think we will see a *crash* in this sector? NO. But I wouldn't be surprised to see prices stagnate or take a small dip in sympathy with the HG sector.

[FlyingDonut]

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books, mainly because they aren't high priced. Will we see a deep correction on overpriced, across the board CGC books? Probably. Will we see a deep correction on Fantastic Four 72 in VG? Probably not.

 

That's 80% of high-grade books. Jeez - when I refer to "the market" and "speculative bubbles", of course I'm only talking about high grade - that's so obvious that I don't bother clarifying this fact every time I post (I have stated as much several times in the past, though)! I don't know too many people who speculate on VG late SA Fantastic Fours.

 

That said, however, I do believe the low/mid grade sector will be somewhat impacted because the potential rate of return of *all assets* are interrelated. Do I think we will see a *crash* in this sector? NO. But I wouldn't be surprised to see prices stagnate or take a small dip in sympathy with the HG sector.

 

So, again, to be clear, you're talking about 80% of one percent of the market? All of this sturm und drang is over 0.8% of the marketplace?

 

OK. I agree with you 100%. On high grade speculative books, 80% of which is probably post-1966 fodder anyway, there's going to be a crash in prices, and, I believe, has already happened on 80% of THAT tiny segment of the marketplace.

 

Therefore we are in agreement that the REMAINING 99.2% of the back issue market is going to muddle along just fine.

[drbanner]

That is the first time you've come out and said how broad and deep it will be. I disagree. 80% of the market is, and has been, essentially selling for 40% off of Guide for 30 years. I simply do not see a deep correction on these books, mainly because they aren't high priced. Will we see a deep correction on overpriced, across the board CGC books? Probably. Will we see a deep correction on Fantastic Four 72 in VG? Probably not.

 

That's 80% of high-grade books. Jeez - when I refer to "the market" and "speculative bubbles", of course I'm only talking about high grade - that's so obvious that I don't bother clarifying this fact every time I post (I have stated as much several times in the past, though)! I don't know too many people who speculate on VG late SA Fantastic Fours.

 

That said, however, I do believe the low/mid grade sector will be somewhat impacted because the potential rate of return of *all assets* are interrelated. Do I think we will see a *crash* in this sector? NO. But I wouldn't be surprised to see prices stagnate or take a small dip in sympathy with the HG sector.

 

So, again, to be clear, you're talking about 80% of one percent of the market? All of this sturm und drang is over 0.8% of the marketplace?

 

OK. I agree with you 100%. On high grade speculative books, 80% of which is probably post-1966 fodder anyway, there's going to be a crash in prices, and, I believe, has already happened on 80% of THAT tiny segment of the marketplace.

 

Therefore we are in agreement that the REMAINING 99.2% of the back issue market is going to muddle along just fine.

 

So in the end, Hulk 181 will be the only casualty...

[awe4one]

So in the end, Hulk 181 will be the only casualty...

 

No....it's one of the exceptions.....

 

Jim

[duncan36]

I personally think the main point of devisiveness on this topic is around how people mentally see CGC graded books. The logic these days seems to be 'Ok I'll look at the CGC census and theres only 10 copies of this book at 9.4, theres only 10 copies of this book in the whole world at 9.4 its worth a fortune!'.

Somehow the book is no longer a Avengers #1 or Captain America #100 its one of 10 9.4's in the whole wide world.

 

Many collectors look at an 8.5 next to a 9.4 and see the couple of minor flaws that differeriante the books and realize they're the same book one has a few more tiny flaws than the other. Thats it.

 

Two diametrically opposed viewpoints. The real question is how many true collectors are willing to pay 300%+ for a CGC stamp and a comic with a few less tiny imperfections.

 

If theres a boatload of true collectors willing to do that, then the market is safe.

 

If theres not, and high grade CGC is the playground of pure speculators and pure speculators pretending to be collectors as many believe then the market is in dire trouble.