Time Frame For Crash?

[Paul_Maul]

For those who believe in an impending crash, I know it is a sensitive issue to commit to a time frame.

If everyone promises not to throw it back at you if it doesn't happen, what would be your guess as to

how long it will take for 9.4 - 9.6 books to drop in value by, say, 50%. A rough estimate is fine.

 

Just curious as to how long I will have to wait to pick up some nice books, I'm getting tired of

seeing those holes in my Spidey collection.

 

This is a sincere inquiry, not a flame-baiting crash post.

[OldGuy]

If everyone promises not to throw it back at you if it doesn't happen, what would be your guess as to

how long it will take for 9.4 - 9.6 books to drop in value by, say, 50%. A rough estimate is fine.

 

Joe Collector predicted 2004. You can bet your @ss that he'll never live it down if it doesn't happen in the next 6 months.

[mindriot-migration]

This is a sincere inquiry, not a flame-baiting crash post.

 

[Foolkiller]

I don't think 9.4/9.6 books are going to drop in price by 50%. However, if as Gene noted, we go into a general severe economic downturn, expect some of the collectibles to get put out on the market at significant discounts.

 

For 9.4/9.6 books, a crash doesn't have to be a decrease by 50% of current prices.

[sfilosa]

Unless there is a total ECONOMIC CRASH, I seriously doubt that you will see a 50% drop across the board on GA and SA comics.

 

Could there be a small correction with stagnate prices for several years, SURE, but there really isn't the supply of high grade books available to have a major crash.

 

One of the main reasons why is because many of the nicest books are in a few collector/dealers hands. If they start selling everything at 50% off, they would be devauling their remaining collection/inventory. Plus one or two sales well below market value does not make a crash.

[Paul_Maul]

For 9.4/9.6 books, a crash doesn't have to be a decrease by 50% of current prices.

 

By stock market standards, a 20% drop off would be necessary to even call it a bear market in high

grade comics. Usually, the term crash is reserved for drop offs in the 75-90% category.

[FFB]

I think the crash has already started. When Comic-Keys' Amazing Fantasy #15 NM+ 9.6 went for $117,500, or almost five grand less than the CGC 9.4 went for on ComicLink in January, that tells me that the end is near.

[supapimp]

i think the market will correct itself, but not really crash for HG SA books from 62-65.

[Foolkiller]

I'm not using the stock market terminology of "crash" as my definition... I think there's going to be a lot of upset comic book investors if they can only sell their books at 80% of what they paid.

 

That may not fit the actual definition of "crash" but there'll be plenty of people who will be less than happy and plenty of others proclaiming a crash --

[awe4one]

i think the market will correct itself, but not really crash for HG SA books from 62-65.

 

I'm not singling you out here Supa....

 

But there either is or isn't going to be a crash....

 

Two years ago, everyone here was scoffing at the notion of a crash or even, if that's the word you choose to use, a correction. Now some generally agree that something will happen but now either caveat it as a correction or say there will be a crash except for "insert line of comics/genres here".

 

If some of you continue limiting down the exceptions, there won't be any left to except.....

 

Just an observation.....

 

Jim

[Mushroom]

A crash is not an across the board event. Some hyperinflated books will have a major correction whereas other keys in HG will flatten or continue to rise. Even during stock market crashes blue chip companies continue to survive and grow.

 

Desirability of the book.....size of the market......number of books available........price etc all determine the volatility.

 

Now where are you JC. Almost half way through the year and no crash. Is it coming or not.

[thecomicsheet]

Words of wisdom on market prediction:

 

If you say how much, don't say when.

If you say when, don't say how much.

[Foolkiller]

A crash is not an across the board event. Some hyperinflated books will have a major correction whereas other keys in HG will flatten or continue to rise. Even during stock market crashes blue chip companies continue to survive and grow.

 

Desirability of the book.....size of the market......number of books available........price etc all determine the volatility.

 

Now where are you JC. Almost half way through the year and know crash. Is it coming or not.

 

I definitely agree with this.

[joe_collector]

Now where are you JC. Almost half way through the year and no crash. Is it coming or not.

 

You know the funniest part?

 

You sappers will be up to your eyeballs in over-valued CGC slabs, your phone will be disconnected, you will either be evicted or foreclosed, you live in fear of repo men, the closest you'll get to a credit card is a commercial you saw at the bus station, but you'll laugh thinking that I was off on my prediction by a year or two.

 

Now that makes me smile.

[Illiterati-migration]

A crash is not an across the board event. Some hyperinflated books will have a major correction whereas other keys in HG will flatten or continue to rise. Even during stock market crashes blue chip companies continue to survive and grow.

 

Desirability of the book.....size of the market......number of books available........price etc all determine the volatility.

 

Now where are you JC. Almost half way through the year and know crash. Is it coming or not.

 

I definitely agree with this.

 

I don't. It's still a collectibles market. Collectibles, like it or not, are fad-based. See also: Beanie Babies, carnival glass, baseball cards...

 

I'm not saying that this dip will be the end, but comics are not the eternal cash cow that most people here want to believe they are.

[Foolkiller]

yeah but even certain baseball cards have clearly retained they're value... the very rare, the very exceptional piece.

 

Comics have maintained their collectability for quite some time, and I don't see the fan base eroding quite that quickly to the point that if there is a "crash" some of the books won't maintain or continue to rise in value.

[supapimp]

what's Mark McGwire's Topps Olympic card at currently? even though Ken Griffey Jr is rebounding this season what's his Upper Deck rookie at?

[Foolkiller]

I'm not referring to the more recent players... how about a Micky Mantle rookie... Hank Aaron... older cards that are clearly less plentiful carry much more value.

 

I don't disagree about the cards you're referring to... those to me are the "modern comics" that I believe are certainly being inflated.

 

Believe me, I agree that we're due for a definite correction of many silver/bronze Marvels that have escalated to unrealistic prices, but for the forseeable future, I also believe that there will be books that will maintain and still rise in value.

[lighthouse]

The crash will occur at 9:43 PM EST, October 27th, 2004...

[Illiterati-migration]

I'm not referring to the more recent players... how about a Micky Mantle rookie... Hank Aaron... older cards that are clearly less plentiful carry much more value.

 

I don't disagree about the cards you're referring to... those to me are the "modern comics" that I believe are certainly being inflated.

 

Believe me, I agree that we're due for a definite correction of many silver/bronze Marvels that have escalated to unrealistic prices, but for the forseeable future, I also believe that there will be books that will maintain and still rise in value.

 

Which books are you talking about? That is, which books will maintain their current value (and continue to rise)?