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In 40 years, Is Comic Collecting Dead? ?

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1990 = (?... couldn't locate)

 

Remember, 1990 would have been a record year with Batman (1989) being released in theatres and lighting off Batmania, but I do get your point.

 

I'm not saying that total readership sales are not dropping but the other thing to keep in mind is that there are also many different titles carrying the A tier characters, so where there used to only be a few Batman (or Spider-man) related titles in 1970 you have multiple titles title including parallel universes, children and adolescent versions, etc.

 

They've thinned sales out for many a character by going after several target audiences with a wide variety of titles.

 

 

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1990 = (?... couldn't locate)

 

Remember, 1990 would have been a record year with Batman (1989) being released in theatres and lighting off Batmania, but I do get your point.

 

I'm not saying that total readership sales are not dropping but the other thing to keep in mind is that there are also many different titles carrying the A tier characters, so where there used to only be a few Batman (or Spider-man) related titles in 1970 you have multiple titles title including parallel universes, children and adolescent versions, etc.

 

They've thinned sales out for many a character by going after several target audiences with a wide variety of titles.

 

Those are also very good points. People have got on my case before claiming I'm shouting "the sky is falling", when all I'm trying to do is point out the myriad complexities in analyzing markets.

 

Comics may continue to decline in sales and popularity, or they could make an amazing turnaround comeback. Roller-skating, once massively popular, declined to a rather small niche pasttime, then came roaring back in a slightly altered version as skate-boards.

 

But it's not fair to make fun of all of those "over the decades" who said comics were declining, when in fact, that is exactly what they did. And during all of that period, there were massively popular big-budget comics-based movies, and sales continued to decline nonetheless, so claiming the future viability of comics based on movie popularity seems to be an argument that can also be easily dismissed.

 

On the other hand, an ever-dwindling audience for comics collectibles is nevertheless paying ever-increasing prices to obtain their favorites.

 

So, as I said, it's all very complicated...

 

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Pulpguide akaTim --

 

What do you think may happen in the next 10-20 years when the Baby Boomers (for whatever reason) are inclined or forced to sell off their collections?

 

It seems like there could be a massive amount of material with not enough active collectors to either purchase it all, and/or maintain current price levels.

 

Am I mistaken or does this seem to be happening in the pulp hobby right now?

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To be fair I don't think he was making fun of anyone, Just that despite a lot of pessimissim over the last 40 years, whether correct or not, that Comic collecting is still going strong.

 

What has struck me though and something I have not thought about. We all talk about print numbers for certain titles but how many title are there now compared to the past and how would print numbers compare across the whole range (shrug)

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On the other hand, an ever-dwindling audience for comics collectibles is nevertheless paying ever-increasing prices to obtain their favorites.

 

That is very true. Few would argue that the stamp collecting hobby is thriving (anyone can plainly see that it is not), even if there are still stamps selling for hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars to an ever-aging and ever-dwindling base of collectors. I suspect the same will happen for comics.

 

Comic book circulations are in a secular downtrend, but there are enough people in their 30s-60s now who grew up with the characters, stories and books in the pre-digital age and have rediscovered (if they ever left) the hobby and are going strong now. Certainly the advent of CGC and the Internet, along with the resurgence of superhero films over the past decade, has helped to turbo-charge the nostalgia of these generations of readers and collectors.

 

But, I hate to say it, this is clearly the Golden Age of Comic Book Collecting and it's probably not going to get better than it's been. We've had a perfect storm in the hobby over the past 10-15 years - CGC and the Internet gave the market commodification, transparency and liquidity that it did not have for the first 6 decades of the hobby. Comic book readership peaked decades ago, but comic book movies stoked the nostalgia of those who grew up in the '60s-early '90s before comics lost the hearts and minds of late Gen Y and the Millennials. A booming economy (unsustainble as it was) and cheap credit created lots of paper wealth and helped develop comics into a real market.

 

Comics won't be dead in 40 years, but a lot of today's current collectors will be, sad to say. Today's youth, though they will have enjoyed a lot of good superhero films and videogames and maybe the occasional graphic novel, will not have been indoctrinated into comic culture in the numbers that the Boomers, Gen X and early Gen Y were. Some people will always want cool old stuff, but there will be fewer of them than there are now. They will also likely be poorer on average, as they will be paying for the excesses that older generations enjoyed for so long.

 

So, 40 years from now, comic collecting will still be alive, and there may even be some shockingly high prices for certain items, but, by and large, it will be a smaller hobby that is more discriminating about what it values.

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To be fair I don't think he was making fun of anyone, Just that despite a lot of pessimissim over the last 40 years, whether correct or not, that Comic collecting is still going strong.

 

Oh, I'm not blaming that specific poster (though it may have looked like it)... he was just voicing a very common argument. I just think the argument is flawed from a logical standpoint.

 

What has struck me though and something I have not thought about. We all talk about print numbers for certain titles but how many title are there now compared to the past and how would print numbers compare across the whole range (shrug)

 

I don't think that's too relevent, however. What comic publishers have realized is that overall readers have a become a tiny fraction of what there once was. But the small group that remains are very hardcore about the hobby... they will keep buying multiple titles if they are published.

 

However, in the 1960s, Batman sold 500,000 copies per month... that means a minimum of 500,000 readers (actually more, as publishers estimated comics were passed around to friends and siblings, meaning an actual reader base of 1,000,000+).

 

Today, even if there are 10 Batman titles, they are being sold to the same 50,000 core base readers for Batman. And with everyone hyperventilating over 9.8s, they certainly are NOT being passed around to others to read.

 

I'm not sure how a hobby that shows a 95% drop in participants over a 50 year span can be described as "still going strong", no matter how much is paid for specific examples.

 

But will it turn around? We can make as scientific speculations as we can based on available data, but there are always unforseeable variables.

 

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Pulpguide akaTim --

 

What do you think may happen in the next 10-20 years when the Baby Boomers (for whatever reason) are inclined or forced to sell off their collections?

 

It seems like there could be a massive amount of material with not enough active collectors to either purchase it all, and/or maintain current price levels.

 

Am I mistaken or does this seem to be happening in the pulp hobby right now?

 

Well, delekkerste just posted one of the best-written and I think fair analyses I've seen yet, so there's not a lot I can add to his. As for the pulps... it's a very strange "market". There are only about 500 serious pulp collectors left, and maybe another 500 or so dabblers. On the other hand, pulp collections are so scarce, that they are usually absorbed pretty quick (one buyer bought much of the recent Frank Robinson collection by himself).

 

Normally, as you say, with many pulp collectors being in their 80s, a lot of material would be expected to be surfacing all at once. But pulp collectors are fairly egocentric as a group, and many believe the public is just dying to see what they've accumulated, and so are leaving their collections to libraries in their wills.

 

They've been warned against doing this by some of the leading pulp authorities, but they're pretty stubborn. Of course, libraries often have no idea what to do with this esoteric and brittle material, so it usually gets heaped into a basement to be dealt with later, which never happens, and eventually time and neglect rid the world of another group of rarities.

 

But the scarcity of pulps themselves hinders their collectibility, as it's hard to draw in new collectors with something that's difficult to obtain at the outset. Comics, at least, have enough scarcities to make the hunt interesting, but enough common books, even major keys, that makes collecting feasible for many.

 

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On the other hand, an ever-dwindling audience for comics collectibles is nevertheless paying ever-increasing prices to obtain their favorites.

 

That is very true. Few would argue that the stamp collecting hobby is thriving (anyone can plainly see that it is not), even if there are still stamps selling for hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars to an ever-aging and ever-dwindling base of collectors. I suspect the same will happen for comics.

 

Comic book circulations are in a secular downtrend, but there are enough people in their 30s-60s now who grew up with the characters, stories and books in the pre-digital age and have rediscovered (if they ever left) the hobby and are going strong now. Certainly the advent of CGC and the Internet, along with the resurgence of superhero films over the past decade, has helped to turbo-charge the nostalgia of these generations of readers and collectors.

 

But, I hate to say it, this is clearly the Golden Age of Comic Book Collecting and it's probably not going to get better than it's been. We've had a perfect storm in the hobby over the past 10-15 years - CGC and the Internet gave the market commodification, transparency and liquidity that it did not have for the first 6 decades of the hobby. Comic book readership peaked decades ago, but comic book movies stoked the nostalgia of those who grew up in the '60s-early '90s before comics lost the hearts and minds of late Gen Y and the Millennials. A booming economy (unsustainble as it was) and cheap credit created lots of paper wealth and helped develop comics into a real market.

 

Comics won't be dead in 40 years, but a lot of today's current collectors will be, sad to say. Today's youth, though they will have enjoyed a lot of good superhero films and videogames and maybe the occasional graphic novel, will not have been indoctrinated into comic culture in the numbers that the Boomers, Gen X and early Gen Y were. Some people will always want cool old stuff, but there will be less of them than there are now. They will also likely be poorer on average, as they will be paying for the excesses that older generations enjoyed for so long.

 

So, 40 years from now, comic collecting will still be alive, and there may even be some shockingly high prices for certain items, but, by and large, it will be a smaller hobby that is more discriminating about what it values.

 

This may be the best-written, most-succinct, and fair (realistic without being gloomy) analyses I've seen yet. Sure, something could and may happen that would void this prediction, but based on the information at hand, this is an outstanding post! :applause:

 

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Tim, I always like your posts. Plus, you have your expert knowledge in pulps which is a market more advanced in its decline than comics are.

 

As you say, it's complex trying to predict what will happen and also to truly analyze what's currently going on. As Roy points out, the publishers have more titles for one thing.

 

I did want to make a comment on the below as it might not have been the best title to pick. (It certainly shows the absolute decline with today's current tiny numbers though.)

 

 

Batman monthly sales (for instance):

 

1970 = 294,000

1980 = 129,000

1990 = (?... couldn't locate)

2000 = 51,000

2010 = 63,000

 

In 1980 Batman was considered lame and Detective was on the chopping block I believe. By 1990 that book was probably selling a ton and probably well above 1980's numbers. And comparing 2010 to even 2000 is tricky because even more people wait for the trade (which people do pass around) so readership could be nicely up over 2000. Of course with the Hush storyline in 2003 or so Batman was the top selling title for a few months, over 100,000, and I'd say that was much more profitable for DC than selling the similar numbers in 1980 when things were far more inefficient. That's a different point, but kind of goes to Roy's point that purely looking at circulation is a little complex. (Your point about the titles all going to the same 50,000 readers now is a good one.)

 

Anyway, at my little shop within a rock poster gallery it's going to be interesting to see who walks in and whether the dollar comics buyers/TPB buyers outnumber the vintage buyers 50-1. I tend to doubt it but I have a large metro population to draw back issue collectors from who will make the trip for my old stuff as opposed to TPB buyers who have other good stores throughout the bay area.

 

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To be fair I don't think he was making fun of anyone, Just that despite a lot of pessimissim over the last 40 years, whether correct or not, that Comic collecting is still going strong.

 

Oh, I'm not blaming that specific poster (though it may have looked like it)... he was just voicing a very common argument. I just think the argument is flawed from a logical standpoint.

 

What has struck me though and something I have not thought about. We all talk about print numbers for certain titles but how many title are there now compared to the past and how would print numbers compare across the whole range (shrug)

 

I don't think that's too relevent, however. What comic publishers have realized is that overall readers have a become a tiny fraction of what there once was. But the small group that remains are very hardcore about the hobby... they will keep buying multiple titles if they are published.

 

However, in the 1960s, Batman sold 500,000 copies per month... that means a minimum of 500,000 readers (actually more, as publishers estimated comics were passed around to friends and siblings, meaning an actual reader base of 1,000,000+).

 

Today, even if there are 10 Batman titles, they are being sold to the same 50,000 core base readers for Batman. And with everyone hyperventilating over 9.8s, they certainly are NOT being passed around to others to read.

 

I'm not sure how a hobby that shows a 95% drop in participants over a 50 year span can be described as "still going strong", no matter how much is paid for specific examples.

 

But will it turn around? We can make as scientific speculations as we can based on available data, but there are always unforseeable variables.

 

Tim,

I would have to disagree with you. I simply don't think you have an accurate view of the hobby. The comic market has changed, and I don't think you can view all of comicdom as a function of how many people currently read Batman, which is how Diamond has assessed the market for years.

What is important is the diversity of characters and titles available now, and the "other" part of the comic industry, the part which reaches kids today, including the trade paperback market, the toy/collectible market, the investment market, the gaming market, and the movie franchises.

5 years ago, NO ONE outside of the hobby knew who the Avengers were. Oh, they knew the Hulk, and some had knowledge of Captain America, but now, almost everyone knows who they are. This HAS to translate into gains in the future of the hobby. The more titles which are converted successfully to blockbuster films, the more the hobby will grow. The more games the companies make with these and other characters, the more the hobby will grow.

The Walking Dead is a perfect example of this. It translates on every level. As a comic book, it was good. As a TV series, it is a phenomenon. There are toys, statues, video games, and even more comics.

And virtually no one is grading new comics. If you look at the last 10 issues of Batman, most have 5 or 6 9.8 graded copies on the census. That is .1% (.001) of the print run being graded.

I don't doubt that comics are not traded as they were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean they aren't getting around. All you have to do is go to any major convention, and you will find hundreds of people who are shopping the 50 cent and 1.00 bins. And many of them are buying stacks of comics. Their opinion........ Why pay $3.99 cover for something that may or may not be good, when you can buy it at a convention for 50 cents? It is hard to argue the logic.

 

I think most in this thread have some good points, but I don't think all is doom and gloom. I think the future of comics is bright, and in my opinion, comics are here to stay for the forseeable future, in some form or another.

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To "House of Collectibles" -- I don't know if Batman was a good choice or not... it's just a popular character that I looked up as an example... there may be better or worse examples out there to base an analysis on.

 

I disagree with Dale, like I've said before, on the movies-as-influence angle. They have never in the entire history of comics caused more than a temporary uptick of interest in the actual comics title. If now is going to be different, there would have to be a solid argument as to why now, and only now, this trend would change.

 

I think most in this thread have some good points, but I don't think all is doom and gloom. I think the future of comics is bright, and in my opinion, comics are here to stay for the forseeable future, in some form or another.

 

Well, again, I don't think it's doom and gloom either. In fact, I try not to analyze these things with thinking either "good" or "bad", as that influences to the detriment of the analysis. I think it's more about predicting changes in the hobby, and adjustments in scale, rather than the "death" of anything. I think the following quote will likely be accuarte, but it's just an opinion...

 

So, 40 years from now, comic collecting will still be alive, and there may even be some shockingly high prices for certain items, but, by and large, it will be a smaller hobby that is more discriminating about what it values.

 

As a businessman whose livelihood depends on this stuff, I have to constantly make and adjust long-term predictions in order to survive. Right now I am in the process of putting thousands of dollars where my mouth is, by reinventing the shop yet again (something I find necessary to do every few years). And I am also working on collectibles reference projects at present that involve years and thousands of hours of work, so I'm certainly planning on the long haul (one dealing with vintage paperbacks, and two potential projects about comics. The comics projects I'd wished I'd started earlier, as I actually believe they would, at least temporarily, expand interest in vintage comics... but I've got so much time invested in another project they'll have to wait).

 

Heck... only 500 potential customers or not, I'm still dealing in pulps... so comics would have to decline a lot more for me to abandon them!

 

 

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Maybe

I work at one of the biggest if not the biggest comic shops in Houston and there are still lots and lots of kids still looking to read and collect...besides im pretty sure the words ( no more kids read comics and collecting will be dead in X amount of years) has been said during the 70's,80,90, and 2000's by the "grown up" lol ...So im not worried at all.

 

This argument and chastisement of previous "doomsayers" always comes out in these threads to indicate that today's "doomsayers" are out of touch. Of course it's based on a strawman to begin with. Few people have used the term "dead" to describe the future of comics, and if they do, they don't mean it to be taken literally... as in, "not a single person on the entire planet will ever read or collect a comic book again!"

 

If, we replace "dead" with the still-loaded word "dying", however it paints a different picture. You are making fun of all those over the years that expressed dismay over the future trends of comic books... but you know what... they were right, and you chastisers among you were wrong.

 

Batman monthly sales (for instance):

 

1970 = 294,000

1980 = 129,000

1990 = (?... couldn't locate)

2000 = 51,000

2010 = 63,000

 

So, despite a very small uptick by 2010, probably in this case due to the Dark Knight movies, all of those people you are making fun of in the 70s, and 80s, and 90s, etc., were 100% correct in their predictions.

 

That, of course, doesn't mean that "past patterns will be indicators of future events", but it is extremely silly to put down people whose crime was making accurate predictions and analyses. Do you folks still make fun of that Galileo guy too?

 

 

Maybe comic readers are more diverse now and not everybody buys Batman monthly floppies from a Diamond supplied LCS?
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Seems like comics on e-readers and in bookstores (unheard of in 1980) are doing just fine. Manga is comics too, lets combine their sales to the total figure. Super hero monthlies aren't doing great, I personally see it as a good thing for comics overall.

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Seems like comics on e-readers and in bookstores (unheard of in 1980) are doing just fine. Manga is comics too, lets combine their sales to the total figure. Super hero monthlies aren't doing great, I personally see it as a good thing for comics overall.

 

My apologies. I assumed when we say "comics" we're talking physical monthly publications. I don't know of anybody anywhere at any time that has suggested that the art form iteslf would just vanish. When major magazines have recently put out articles such as "the end of books?" they aren't suggesting humans will quit reading... they are talking about the physical publication of the bound paper product... and even moreso they are talking the mainstream publication of said product, not small art houses with tiny niche markets.

 

 

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To "House of Collectibles" -- I don't know if Batman was a good choice or not... it's just a popular character that I looked up as an example... there may be better or worse examples out there to base an analysis on.

 

I don't think Marc was specifically talking about Batman, I think most of us are leaning towards the point that in 1970 it was easy to find readership numbers because you would just find the number of comics sold from publication numbers.

 

Now you have multiple ways of reading the same issue - trades, original issues, digital format, etc.

 

I posted this in the Original Art forum but it probably works well here as well

 

In music, there's young fans who still listen to The Beatles, AC/DC, Earth Wind & Fire.

 

Interesting you say that: I know several kids, all aged 20 or younger (so born in either the 1990's or the 2000's) who are infatuated with older bands.

 

There are a couple of brothers who are no older than 10 or 12 years old who are learning nothing but classic rock from a guitar teacher that used to teach my daughter. It was a real eye opener.

 

For whatever reason, reaching back into the past is a real thing and happening across all forms of art...always did.

 

Although demand might diminish over time as cultural relevance fades, there will always be some interest in older things.

 

Walking Dead, record breaking movies and plenty of stories are being burned into people's awareness. It's going to be interesting to see how the latest comic craze translates into nostalgia 15-20 years from now.

 

We currently have a comic craze on our hands. It's going to be interesting to see what sticks and remains with people when they are raising their children.

 

Inevitably, some will buy into nostalgia, and some will even look back into things that they "missed out" on the same way I got into Golden Age a few years ago.

 

Complex issue, for sure.

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To be fair I don't think he was making fun of anyone, Just that despite a lot of pessimissim over the last 40 years, whether correct or not, that Comic collecting is still going strong.

 

Oh, I'm not blaming that specific poster (though it may have looked like it)... he was just voicing a very common argument. I just think the argument is flawed from a logical standpoint.

 

What has struck me though and something I have not thought about. We all talk about print numbers for certain titles but how many title are there now compared to the past and how would print numbers compare across the whole range (shrug)

 

I don't think that's too relevent, however. What comic publishers have realized is that overall readers have a become a tiny fraction of what there once was. But the small group that remains are very hardcore about the hobby... they will keep buying multiple titles if they are published.

 

However, in the 1960s, Batman sold 500,000 copies per month... that means a minimum of 500,000 readers (actually more, as publishers estimated comics were passed around to friends and siblings, meaning an actual reader base of 1,000,000+).

 

Today, even if there are 10 Batman titles, they are being sold to the same 50,000 core base readers for Batman. And with everyone hyperventilating over 9.8s, they certainly are NOT being passed around to others to read.

 

I'm not sure how a hobby that shows a 95% drop in participants over a 50 year span can be described as "still going strong", no matter how much is paid for specific examples.

 

But will it turn around? We can make as scientific speculations as we can based on available data, but there are always unforseeable variables.

 

Tim,

I would have to disagree with you. I simply don't think you have an accurate view of the hobby. The comic market has changed, and I don't think you can view all of comicdom as a function of how many people currently read Batman, which is how Diamond has assessed the market for years.

What is important is the diversity of characters and titles available now, and the "other" part of the comic industry, the part which reaches kids today, including the trade paperback market, the toy/collectible market, the investment market, the gaming market, and the movie franchises.

5 years ago, NO ONE outside of the hobby knew who the Avengers were. Oh, they knew the Hulk, and some had knowledge of Captain America, but now, almost everyone knows who they are. This HAS to translate into gains in the future of the hobby. The more titles which are converted successfully to blockbuster films, the more the hobby will grow. The more games the companies make with these and other characters, the more the hobby will grow.

The Walking Dead is a perfect example of this. It translates on every level. As a comic book, it was good. As a TV series, it is a phenomenon. There are toys, statues, video games, and even more comics.

And virtually no one is grading new comics. If you look at the last 10 issues of Batman, most have 5 or 6 9.8 graded copies on the census. That is .1% (.001) of the print run being graded.

I don't doubt that comics are not traded as they were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean they aren't getting around. All you have to do is go to any major convention, and you will find hundreds of people who are shopping the 50 cent and 1.00 bins. And many of them are buying stacks of comics. Their opinion........ Why pay $3.99 cover for something that may or may not be good, when you can buy it at a convention for 50 cents? It is hard to argue the logic.

 

I think most in this thread have some good points, but I don't think all is doom and gloom. I think the future of comics is bright, and in my opinion, comics are here to stay for the forseeable future, in some form or another.

 

:applause:

I was waiting for you to post.

 

 

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Sitting on the front stoop in 1944, reading my ADVENTURE COMICS #94,

never did I think I would still have it this many years later and that it would

be worth more than a dime. You never know.

 

mm

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Seems like comics on e-readers and in bookstores (unheard of in 1980) are doing just fine. Manga is comics too, lets combine their sales to the total figure. Super hero monthlies aren't doing great, I personally see it as a good thing for comics overall.

 

My apologies. I assumed when we say "comics" we're talking physical monthly publications. I don't know of anybody anywhere at any time that has suggested that the art form iteslf would just vanish. When major magazines have recently put out articles such as "the end of books?" they aren't suggesting humans will quit reading... they are talking about the physical publication of the bound paper product... and even moreso they are talking the mainstream publication of said product, not small art houses with tiny niche markets.

 

You're posting circulation numbers to indicate readership and interest. Readership and interest is not easily factored in through Diamond figures these days. What's to say someone who reads ASM on his iPad isn't interested in bidding on an AF15?
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To be fair I don't think he was making fun of anyone, Just that despite a lot of pessimissim over the last 40 years, whether correct or not, that Comic collecting is still going strong.

 

Oh, I'm not blaming that specific poster (though it may have looked like it)... he was just voicing a very common argument. I just think the argument is flawed from a logical standpoint.

 

What has struck me though and something I have not thought about. We all talk about print numbers for certain titles but how many title are there now compared to the past and how would print numbers compare across the whole range (shrug)

 

I don't think that's too relevent, however. What comic publishers have realized is that overall readers have a become a tiny fraction of what there once was. But the small group that remains are very hardcore about the hobby... they will keep buying multiple titles if they are published.

 

However, in the 1960s, Batman sold 500,000 copies per month... that means a minimum of 500,000 readers (actually more, as publishers estimated comics were passed around to friends and siblings, meaning an actual reader base of 1,000,000+).

 

Today, even if there are 10 Batman titles, they are being sold to the same 50,000 core base readers for Batman. And with everyone hyperventilating over 9.8s, they certainly are NOT being passed around to others to read.

 

I'm not sure how a hobby that shows a 95% drop in participants over a 50 year span can be described as "still going strong", no matter how much is paid for specific examples.

 

But will it turn around? We can make as scientific speculations as we can based on available data, but there are always unforseeable variables.

 

My point wasn't related to simply one charactor. There are lots of different titles and charactors. I may not read X-men but I do read X-factor. If I quite liked Mutants, in the 60's and 70's I literally had the choice of one title. I've not considered how this would affect the figures before and like your post only mentioned and looked at the single titles and I was interested on how many books DC, Marvel et al sell now than they did in say the 60's. It may not mean anything but I would I would figure it would be a better comparison that say 261,000 vs. 50,000 for a single title. 2c but then again I am no expert and simply thinking out loud hm

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