Modern Retailer Variants. To buy or not to buy.

[GOODBYE!-migration]

Some stores that have them are getting 69 to 100 bucks for one. Wizard today listed the price as $100 bucks retail. They are selling on ebay at a wholesale price of $50+. Demand is picking up.

 

But how long will it last?

 

Let's take a look at some data, shall we?

 

Here are the last few raw eBay sales:

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 VARIANT GREEN COVER

$15.00 1 Jul-04 08:18

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 DEALER INCENTIVE VARIANT CASSADAY

$41.99 1 Jul-02 07:07

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 RARE DEALER INCENTIVE VARIANT 1ST

$39.99 1 Jul-02 05:16

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 RARE DEALER INCENTIVE VARIANT 1ST

$39.99 1 Jul-01 16:30

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 dealer VARIANT INCENTIVE cover

$29.99 1 Jul-01 13:15

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 RARE DEALER INCENTIVE VARIANT 1ST

$39.99 1 Jul-01 09:31

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 RETAIL INCENTIVE 1ST VARIANT- MINT

$36.03 13 Jun-28 20:05

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN 1 Retailer First 1st Variant Cassaday

$24.50 9 Jun-28 17:43

 

ASTONISHING X-MEN #1 RARE VARIANT WHEDON CASSADAY

$28.00 9 Jun-28 15:55

 

Several also failed to sell at the 39.99 price point.

 

Well according to the data you presented it is trending up. You didn't list anything higher and one could argue that first buyers out of the gate were willing to forgo the wholesale discount to be the first people to get the book. It is also the week ending July Fourth so people are spending more money on gas, beer and fireworks than usual.

 

We both know not to pay retail for any book when we can get it on ebay for less but I predict this book ends up at $75-$100 or more Retail which makes $37.50-$50 a reasonable wholesale cost. Prices don't look too out of control presently on this book.

 

I think that with all the hoops that Marvel made buyers go through to get a single copy that dealers and fans will tend to hold onto them more than the average dealer incentive.

[rob_react]

Well according to the data you presented it is trending up. You didn't list anything higher and one could argue that first buyers out of the gate were willing to forgo the wholesale discount to be the first people to get the book. It is also the week ending July Fourth so people are spending more money on gas, beer and fireworks than usual.

 

We both know not to pay retail for any book when we can get it on ebay for less but I predict this book ends up at $75-$100 or more Retail which makes $37.50-$50 a reasonable wholesale cost. Prices don't look too out of control presently on this book.

 

I think that with all the hoops that Marvel made buyers go through to get a single copy that dealers and fans will tend to hold onto them more than the average dealer incentive.

 

I think you're going to spin this silly book in a positive light no matter what. So, go nuts. Have a ball. Even I'll admit there's a one in a million chance that you could make money on this book now that it's already out of the gate, so if you're that convinced:

 

BUY! BUY! BUY!

 

Just one point, when I wrote "RETAIL" I meant eBay. I know that eBay means a discount to the retail price, but what I was more getting at was the idea that buying this book secondhand at those sort of prices is playing with fire.

[FlyingDonut]

The Cassaday variant is NOT trending upward, it is trending downward. I've been selling them since the day they came out, one at a time. First day? $125 BIN. Ever since then they've been slowling drifting downward. This is my latest one, I'll be surprised if it breaks $40. Shipping on all of my items is $5, and the winning bidder also gets a Wizard World East program (don't laugh, they sell for $5-8).

[mitol]

Rob_react is right. This book will steadily decline in value, but if its print run is as low as stated, then it'll find that happy medium where supply=demand. My guess is somewhere between $30-40. The price will decrease even more once Cassaday and Whedon leave the book. It's been mentioned that this book is/will be similar to the Ultimate Spider-Man #1 White. Not a chance, unfortunately. One of many reasons why USM is still in such high demand is because Bendis/Bagley are still on the book. There is absolutely no possibility that both or either Whedon and Cassaday will remain even half as long. My prediction is 12 issues and both will move on. I know there were no variants involved, but remember what happened to X-Men and Spider-Man after Jim Lee and Todd McFarlane moved on? Even the back issues of those books aren't in high demand.

[lou_fine]

The low numbers on the New Mutants relaunch title mean there are less than ~7642 copies possible of the Dealer Incentive.

 

Couple this with the fact that orders for Astonishing X-men #1 had to be greater than Ultimate Fantastic Four #1(which sold over 200K) to get the Pink variant, let alone the Dealer incentive, it can conservatively be said that there probably exist less than 2-3,000 of the Cassaday cover and not really too many more of the Pink Variant. But who knows as Marvel could be sitting on another 10k of these.

 

Combine this with the fact that the Sketch Cover Director's Cut is crying out to be made into a pair with the Full Group shot on the Dealer Incentive and you have a book that fans will be well aware of but unable to get without competing with all the other X-Men fans out there. If Astonishing X-men has any legs this book will be the key for any Astonishing X-men completist the way the White Cover Ultimate Spider-man #1 is to Ultimate Spider-man fans.

 

If you are trying to imply that the variant version of Astonishing X-Men #1 is going to be like the White Spidey #1, I am sorry to say that the chances of this happening are slim to none. I believe that it'll be more like the Platinum Spidey #1 from the early 90's. And if you think this has turned out to be a good buy since it is now guiding for $100 as you stated, let me tell you a story.

 

Back in the early 90's (1990?) when I was attending my first SD con, the Spidey #1 book by McFarlane had just been released a couple of months earlier. A few of the dealers had this so-called rare variant version of the Spidy book. Only problem was that they were asking $1,000 for the book. This price was more than justified by the fact that this was an extremely rare book by the hottest artist at the time and the #1 issue of what would certainly turn into the biggest book of all time.

 

Being the dumb speculator type that I was, I missed my big opportunity once again. Instead, I ended up picking up high grade copies of Captain America #29 and #31 for my $1K which was roughly top guide at the time. When I went back to the other dealers, they simply laughed and said that I was throwing my money away on books that took almost 50 years to move up to $500 when I could have brought a book that had moved up to $1,000 in just 2 months. Now draw a trend line to that and it was obvious that I had just made a big mistake. Last time I looked, the 2 Caps are now guiding over $5K combined while the Spidey according to you is now at $100.

 

Bottom-line repeated: Retailer variants are nothing more than a sucker's play by the publishers to get the speculators to buy more copies of the same book, with prices usually starting at the top and having nowhere to go but down.

[blowout]

Retailer variants are nothing more than a sucker's play by the publishers to get the speculators to buy more copies of the same book, with prices usually starting at the top and having nowhere to go but down.

 

And the only people that will disagree with this statement are dealers, sellers and the very poorely informed.

[mitol]

Maybe a little OT, but what about the Batman #608 RRP and the Superman #204 RRP? Both are different than the AXM #1 as they could not be acquired by picking up a high volume of specific titles.

[GOODBYE!-migration]

Rob_react is right. This book will steadily decline in value, but if its print run is as low as stated, then it'll find that happy medium where supply=demand. My guess is somewhere between $30-40. The price will decrease even more once Cassaday and Whedon leave the book. It's been mentioned that this book is/will be similar to the Ultimate Spider-Man #1 White. Not a chance, unfortunately. One of many reasons why USM is still in such high demand is because Bendis/Bagley are still on the book. There is absolutely no possibility that both or either Whedon and Cassaday will remain even half as long. My prediction is 12 issues and both will move on. I know there were no variants involved, but remember what happened to X-Men and Spider-Man after Jim Lee and Todd McFarlane moved on? Even the back issues of those books aren't in high demand.

 

Good points but I did qualify by saying "if the book has legs". Yes, if they leave the title faster than Liefield on speed then the books will be little more than curiosities, But if they do stick around for 60 some issues, who knows. Do you have an inside line on the artists leaving so soon? I would think that Marvel would make it worth their while to stick around if they learned anything from the departures and subsequent drop in sales due to Lee and McFarlane leaving.

 

I bet the most bang for the buck is the Dell Otto variant anyways. Luckily I got five from Bobscomics.com at 20% off cover on an order of 10 #1's as he must not have ordered many Ultimate Fantastic Four #1's

 

You're right though, if its all a short term pump and dump by Marvel then no one will care about completeing a set, and you will likely be able to pick up the team cover cheap.

[mitol]

Do you have an inside line on the artists leaving so soon? I would think that Marvel would make it worth their while to stick around if they learned anything from the departures and subsequent drop in sales due to Lee and McFarlane leaving.

 

I heard it from Cassaday on FanBoy radio when they had him on, that Whedon was only committed to 12 issues with a "maybe more" after that. Cassaday pretty much echoed the same sentiment. This is no different than Jim Lee's run on Batman and Superman or Warren Ellis's run on UFF or Mark Millar's run on MK Spider-Man. Writers like Joss Whedon, Bryan Singer, and Kevin Smith, unfortunately, will not remain with a title for any lengthy period of time for the simple reason that it's not their bread and butter profession. They're just doing it because they were fans of the medium. We as fans will hopefully enjoy their work while they're on the title. I for one am glad that Bendis/Bagley have remained on USM as long as they have and especially glad to hear that they are determined to break Lee/Ditko's (I think it was Lee/Ditko) run of 100+ issues on the same title. After that, who knows.

 

As for AXM, I have one copy of the retail variant and am hoping to get both Whedon and Cassaday to sign it as a keepsake, but after their run, I really feel that this title will go the way of the 90's X-Men and Spider-Man.

[rob_react]

I for one am glad that Bendis/Bagley have remained on USM as long as they have and especially glad to hear that they are determined to break Lee/Ditko's (I think it was Lee/Ditko) run of 100+ issues on the same title. After that, who knows.

 

Stan Lee and Jack Kirby on Fantastic Four.

[mitol]

Stan Lee and Jack Kirby on Fantastic Four.

 

Thanks. I had a strong feeling I was wrong on that one.