Overstreet #42: Common Themes: Market Reports

[mintcollector]

Being a high grade collector of CGC graded comic books, I really only use the Overstreet Price Guide for two uses. The first is it sets a 'baseline' as to what a non-slabbed book can be worth. The second reason is the market reports, which I enjoy reading.

 

That being said, it was interesting to see how the many different contributors and dealers who write this year's market reports have decided to put their 'unique' spin on the 'correction' which occurred in the 'bronze' and 'copper' age markets. It is based on these reports ( and how accurate and honest their reports are) that I determine what dealers I want to do business with.

 

Comparing these reports to previous market reports, it is interesting to me as to how many dealers and contributors who once said that 'bronze' age comic books were a great investment are now saying 'enjoy what you own' or 'market corrections are necessary.' Quick note: I agree with the last statement, as corrections weed out speculators. This in turn, makes any market stronger over time.

 

I was wondering what the overall thoughts of the forum are concerning not only this current 'theme' in the Overstreet Guide, but any others.

 

In conclusion, in the antique (and collectibles) market, there is a saying; 'wish it true and it can come true.' This is an uncommon statement that simply means if you consistently tell people the market of a certain item is down, it will remain down. Tell people the market is strong and growing, and the market will grow.

 

In an upcoming thread I will be posting in the 'bronze' age forum; I will be posting about the 'fallacy' of the supposed 'rule of 25.' An expert in my field (of antiques and collectibles) has commented on this, and I will eventually post about it, when I get more time (hint: basically everything I said in previous threads about this, was 'spot on.').

 

Any other thoughts on common market report themes?

[delekkerste]

1. I'm not sure that "correction" is the proper characterization for what we've seen in the BA market. Does anybody think that, in inflation-adjusted terms, these books will ever reach/top the heights reached some years ago with all the HG supply that has been unearthed and/or manufactured? Will I ever recoup the $2K+ on my ASM #122 9.6 that I bought in 2001?

 

2. I have never been a believer in The Rule of 25. For every example you can find where it works, there are many more examples where it didn't. At best it is a weak tendency; it may be more statistically significant vs. pure chance, but it is definitely far, far from a sure thing. I look forward to reading your own observations on the subject.

[comicwiz]

My first thought is that anyone who sounds like they might be recalibrating their reality in more current market reports was trying to do what you suggest in earlier reports, and that was to paint a picture of the markets strengths.

 

Further to this point is your analogy of being careful what you wish for - and the tendency for people to bring up softening sales to improve their buying position.

 

The reality is that this doesn't translate well in comics and other collectible categories like Star Wars toys.

 

I'll start with comics. When I first joined these boards, there were a few collectors who tuned their radars and focuses so sharply, and would collect only romance, horror, DC 100 Pagers, war, underground comix (me), etc.

 

These are markets which many with more eclectic collecting tastes will dabble in, and a few might pick up a Neal Adams 100 Pager, or the first Sgt Rock, but not many will actually try to string together a sequential run of an entire series or title.

 

Because of this, the demand tends to gravitate towards the more popular superhero titles. That is where the real market "strength" lies, and because of the amount of submissions padding the census, it will continue to drag negatively on the value of post 70's Marvels.

 

Not to suggest that DC or pre-70's comics in general will fare better in any predetermined way, but it seems to be a lot more difficult to string together a higher grade run of books or a title from that era and prior.

 

The same applies with vintage Star Wars toys. In fact, still keeping with the idea of promoting market strengths, the opposite would ring true when you capture collector sentiment toward more popular characters like Boba Fett.

 

Many of the old guard, purist collectors get quite incensed by the "hype" driven demand that revolves around the Boba Fett character as they realize that it's the demand that drives the prices sky high and produces a "Fett tax" when buying any carded figures or rare foreign lines.

 

Following this sentiment is the belief that this type of character focus demand drives away interest from other characters and keeps their values unfairly depressed. It is this debasing theory which I've also mentioned on these boards as well when it comes to observing how the hobby has gravitated towards key comics.

 

These are realities that I have seen and continue to observe. In response to the notion of painting a picture of the hobby that tries to maintain a positive position, in my dealings, I try to explain all these nuances and don't sugar coat the situation. I think that if more people did this, we wouldn't have to deal with too drastic a market correction, but rather one that evolves with more stability and protracted growth.

 

I also realize that this type of thinking goes against the dominant trend of speculating on villains or new character films and the dramatic rise of first appearance comics, but I find that when this type of speculating occurs, these value spikes are the most vulnerable and sensitive to becoming the next comic market bubble, with dealers and those reporting on markets finding themselves needing to back-peddle on what they might have previously said about the hobby and the strength of hype-driven first appearances.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Being a high grade collector of CGC graded comic books, I really only use the Overstreet Price Guide for two uses. The first is it sets a 'baseline' as to what a non-slabbed book can be worth. The second reason is the market reports, which I enjoy reading.

 

That being said, it was interesting to see how the many different contributors and dealers who write this year's market reports have decided to put their 'unique' spin on the 'correction' which occurred in the 'bronze' and 'copper' age markets. It is based on these reports ( and how accurate and honest their reports are) that I determine what dealers I want to do business with.

 

Comparing these reports to previous market reports, it is interesting to me as to how many dealers and contributors who once said that 'bronze' age comic books were a great investment are now saying 'enjoy what you own' or 'market corrections are necessary.' Quick note: I agree with the last statement, as corrections weed out speculators. This in turn, makes any market stronger over time.

 

I was wondering what the overall thoughts of the forum are concerning not only this current 'theme' in the Overstreet Guide, but any others.

 

In conclusion, in the antique (and collectibles) market, there is a saying; 'wish it true and it can come true.' This is an uncommon statement that simply means if you consistently tell people the market of a certain item is down, it will remain down. Tell people the market is strong and growing, and the market will grow.

 

In an upcoming thread I will be posting in the 'bronze' age forum; I will be posting about the 'fallacy' of the supposed 'rule of 25.' An expert in my field (of antiques and collectibles) has commented on this, and I will eventually post about it, when I get more time (hint: basically everything I said in previous threads about this, was 'spot on.').

 

Any other thoughts on common market report themes?

Looking forward to the report. (thumbs u

[VintageComics]

In conclusion, in the antique (and collectibles) market, there is a saying; 'wish it true and it can come true.' This is an uncommon statement that simply means if you consistently tell people the market of a certain item is down, it will remain down. Tell people the market is strong and growing, and the market will grow.

 

This phenomenon is something I've been saying has been going on for years.

 

The market volatility on many sales can be attributed to bidding based on internet chatter. Internet chatter has increased the cycle of volatility.

 

Someone says a character is hot or will be hot and sales heat up.

 

Someone says a character is losing popularity and sales cool off.

 

So people often do not buy what they personally like (this would increase market stability). They buy what they think others will like (this would decrease market stability).

 

This, I think, has been at the heart of the volatility of the comic market.

[rodan57]

Because of this, the demand tends to gravitate towards the more popular superhero titles. That is where the real market "strength" lies, and because of the amount of submissions padding the census, it will continue to drag negatively on the value of post 70's Marvels....

 

The same applies with vintage Star Wars toys ....

 

Following this sentiment is the belief that this type of character focus demand drives away interest from other characters and keeps their values unfairly depressed. It is this debasing theory which I've also mentioned on these boards as well when it comes to observing how the hobby has gravitated towards key comics.

 

As a person who collects to read, I like to buy comics in very nice condition (7.0-8.5). Nice is a vague descriptor but most collectors probably understand the nostalgic factor in reading an old book that looks like its only a couple of well-preserved years away from the newsstand. (Even the word, newsstand, is a nostalgic term.)

 

I love many of the most popular and expensive titles but would still love them even should they not be so expensive. I would rather the comic book market stay low key so that books stay affordable. By affordable and low key, I mean a collectable wherein it really doesn't matter if I get any monetary return out of it, as I enjoyed the reading and collecting. I am probably the exact opposite of Mr. Mehdy.

 

So I am interested in the debasing concept in contrast with the rising tide raises all ships.

 

Thanks for the post.

[mintcollector]

Pardon my typing and grammar, I am on my I-Pad...

 

While I will post the best response and analysis i received on the 'rule if 25' a little later, possibly by this weekend; I did want to comment on all the talk of the 'bronze age' market.

 

Number one, comparing the 'bronze age' market to the years 2000-2003; and I am sure we all agree that the market has taken a large hit. That being said, some books, within the last few years, have actually gone up. Did anyone really believe that a TOD #1 in 9.8 was worth ten times as much as a 9.4; back in 2003? I asked the same question about Swamp Thing #1 as well. Yet, at $900-$1000, these books in that high of grade may not be that bad. Personally, I prefer to own these in 9.4, which I do. Ironically, prices in 9.2 to 9.4 appear to be very stable for a lot of 'bronze age' books right now. I do not see that trend changing all too much (surprisingly).

 

Number two, 'copper age' books (certain ones), have actually increased in value in the last few years. I remember passing on GI Joe #1 in 9.8 for about $125. Look at it now. Same can be said for Transformers #1, NM 87 and the like. Why are these books gaining, yet we view the 'bronze age' as falling? A quick analysis of GPA will put this all in perspective.

 

After the latest thread about 9.6 and 9.8 'bronze age' books appeared, I did a quick check on some of my books on GPA. Taking the aggregate average of what I paid for my collection, I am still ahead...very far ahead. I also reholder every book I buy, and these costs are fully factored in, including all shipping costs as well (just in case I get questions on that; I truly mean all costs-even the resealable comic bags). Keep in mind that I also own esoteric books like Ghosts #1, Dead of Night #1, and Vault of Evil #1, which incidentally I paid $125 for in 9.4. Now here is the 'kicker', if you look at what you pay for each individual item, you will drive yourself nuts! Look at the average. Investors in antiques and collectibles who do the best, dollar cost average their collections. This is how investors get ahead overall. Therefore, the goal should be to buy right most of the time. I also emphasize cross-collecting as well, but that is a topic or another day.

 

Just some thoughts...

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'