9.6/9.8 market oversaturated???

[chrisco37]

Lots and lots of people.

 

I've got a few. Luckily, they are all relatively low dollar books. But, I won't get back what I paid anytime in the near future. Maybe not ever.

 

Gene has commented on some books he bought back in the day that he'll probably never recoup.

 

I'm sure old boardie Sullypython must have some. He was impossible to beat in auctions if he really wanted something.

[Flaming_Telepath]

Nick

While I agree that more people are pressing it would be disingenuous to point to that being the only reason for falling prices.

There are huge amounts of HG bronze out there. Huge amounts.

To make it seem like pressing is the only cause is, well, making obvious your disdain for the practice without aknowlwdging another underlying market pressure.

 

I'd agree if we were talking about the whole Bronze market, but we're specifically discussing the 9.6 & 9.8 market.

 

And in that arena, pressing has had a huge impact. I'd say it was the greatest single factor.

[MutantKeys]

Well, I overpaid on almost everything I purchased for my old Copper X-Men collection. Luckily, I sold before that market crashed, and profited on some of the "rarer" books. Those 1 of 2 in 9.8 are more like 1 of 50+ now. "Manipulation" destroyed the market for Copper and early Modern books.

[zuulioso]

Supply and Demand

Whats your point?

Supply has increased, prices decrease, :shrug:

Didnt need the link, know what it is, took both Micro and Macro in college

 

I meant it to be my reply to the original question. Not your response. Sarcasm was intended.

 

Posted before reading your same explanation.

[joeypost]

Well, I overpaid on almost everything I purchased for my old Copper X-Men collection. Luckily, I sold before that market crashed, and profited on some of the "rarer" books. Those 1 of 2 in 9.8 are more like 1 of 50+ now. "Manipulation" destroyed the market for Copper and early Modern books.

 

Partly true Danny. But in reality, when everyone who had long boxes of those X-Men books saw they were getting $200+ for each copy decided to send in multiple copies. This would have happened regardless if the books were pressed. Send in 50 with a 9.8 pre-screen and hope for the best.

[ft88]

Collectibles are an interesting phenomenon where prices actually affect demand inversely to the typical Supply/Demand curves.

 

But ultimately wouldn't lower prices make, at least buyers, happy? If I had lost out on that 9.8 Spidey 129, I can now buy one for a fraction of its high. Great right.

 

Ed

[MisterX]

Something that struck me reading this year's OPG was in how many market reports the advisors talked about pressing and the CPR game.

 

It was mentioned a lot more than in previous years. Last year, maybe three to five mentions -- this year it seems like they were all bringing it up. Even Bob O. brings it up in his annual report.

 

And many advisors, in the same sentence, linked those practices to the decline in prices for the Bronze market, Bronze keys and HG 9.6/9.8 BA books.

[cheetah]

The number of CA and modern books in 9.8 that don't require pressing is enormous while the collecting pool is small. 5,000 potential 9.8s with 50 people willing to pay big prices means the hobby was destined for a decline regardless of pressing. When you can go to a convention and walk out with a few thousand 9.8 candidates in a few hours, you know the hobby won't sustain high numbers.

 

Conversely, look at the GA market where the number of HG books is very limited, and prices have been more stable (though there has been a decline since CGC first started). So it's all supply and demand and supply can't support prices that are much more than a few dollars higher than the raw book + grading fee.

[Jeffro.]

But ultimately wouldn't lower prices make, at least buyers, happy? If I had lost out on that 9.8 Spidey 129, I can now buy one for a fraction of its high. Great right.

 

Ed

 

Yup, great for buyers.

 

Until the day comes when they want to/have to sell and can only get back a fraction of what they paid.

[miraclemet]

Collectibles are an interesting phenomenon where prices actually affect demand inversely to the typical Supply/Demand curves.

 

But ultimately wouldn't lower prices make, at least buyers, happy? If I had lost out on that 9.8 Spidey 129, I can now buy one for a fraction of its high. Great right.

 

Ed

 

but there is a difference between lower prices, and prices trending lower...

 

Buying a book for $500 that used to be worth $1500 (and out of your price range) is sweet.

 

Buying a book for $500 that used to be worth $1500 and is continuing to trend down is only sweet if you have no care about its future value. Otherwise why buy if its gonna be worth $300 in 6 more months? The longer you plan on keeping a book, the less you care about that fact...

[cheetah]

It helps to remember that a lot of folks are still collectors first. Getting a book to complete a run or fill a key slot is sometimes worth overpaying for.

[VintageComics]

Awesome. Another pressing thread.

 

Danny, learn to use the search function.

 

This is something I posted a few months ago in the bronze forum. Rather than retype it I'll just copy and paste it here and add/edit in a few more points that I think are worth repeating:

 

I know that pressing is often blamed for the downturn in prices but pressing has been around for many years and has been discussed heavily on this forum for as long as I can remember.

 

In my opinion, the largest downturn in the bronze and late silver market happened some time around 2009 from what I have been able to remember.

 

I remember having a bunch of books at auction towards the end of 2009 that had done reasonably well in the past and I got killed on many of them for that auction. In fact, I remember the boards in general lamenting about the state of the market in late 2009 in many threads. Since then much of the market also started to bounce back (as stated by others in those same threads).

 

I attribute it to several factors, one being the state of the economy. 2008-2009 was a massive downturn for the US economy that left a lot of people either short on money or worried about being short on money. That caused people to sell their books in need of additional income. - More supply due to poor economy AND less demand because people needed money more than comics.

 

Second in roughly 2008-2009 there was a large shift to selling stuff through all the new auction houses being set up (Comiclink, Comicconnect, Pedigree - Heritage was the only game in town offering really high quality material through auction until the others caught on). It got to the point where dealers were choosing the auction route rather than sitting on books and waiting to get their prices. Add in the fact that the economy was struggling and you have a large supply (as people needed the money) and you had a perfect storm for auction houses. Pushing a lot of products through auctions forced buyers to choose between venues and without a second bidder to drive prices up prices began to decline. Once people realized that auction wasn't the route for everyone to take, people started being more selective to which books went to auction (I know I was). - More supply

 

There were also a few very big collectors that dropped out of the market during that time period. I know that for a fact as I spoke to them. Guys setting records by beating each other up at auction and guys putting together multiple runs of books decided to pull back. Having a few big guns drop out of the market (or just shift direction in collecting interests) did cause a shift in prices as they stopped chasing books and also started selling books. - So less demand AND more supply

 

So yes, while pressing does increase supply there were a lot of other factors at work than just pressed books coming to market.

 

 

I'd also add that in the last 4 years we've also uncovered NO LESS THAN 4 SA/BA Pedigrees (Rocky Mountain, Sucha News, Savannah, Twin City) which have been absorbed reasonably well into the market - Obviously more supply

 

Additionally, this was a post made by another board member in another thread that made a very compelling argument about demand.

 

Collecting as we know it only really takes off after the introduction of the middle class. Prior to that it was only museums, libraries, universities and the very wealthy that were the traditional collectors, but they collect for very different reasons than you and I and most of us. Museums to study and preserve, universities to study and educate as well as libraries, basically for posterity.

 

When I think of collecting, if think of it was mostly a western society 21st century phenomenon, and more or less the latter half of the 21st century after wwII. Go to any third world or developing nation, they don't collect, they're to preoccupied with putting food on the table. Collecting has very much to do with disposable income, and as long as the middle class has disposable income, we'll have a viable comic collecting community. Like someone mentioned in an earlier post, the hobby will exist, but with regards to values, who knows.

 

Ah, who gives a mess, ce la vie. What will be will be. Enjoy your hobby and stop thinking about how much or how little your books will be worth in 40 years.

 

So to summarize, we've had:

 

1) pressing increasing supply

2) massive downturn in the world economy increasing supply and decreasing demand

3) collectors dropping out increasing supply and decreasing demand

4) 4 new SA and BA pedigrees increasing supply

 

It's not just one thing. It can't be, because it's obvious that there are many factors involved. It's a complex situation that IMO for the most part has been perpetuated by the massive downturn in the US and world economy leading to all other factors.

 

I genuinely believe that this is the underlying reason for price drops wherever we have seen them.

[seanfingh]

 

Pressing is (1) and the general economic downturn post 2008 is (1a).

[paperheart]

'Manufactured collectibles'. (thumbs u

 

those two words combined with that sig line

[B-Smooth]

9.9 will be the new 9.8, and cgc will continue to protect that grade. Flaws that can't be pressed out will help keep 9.9's at a minimum. Can't press out blunted corners, or bindery flaws.

[Sal]

I've begun looking at slabs - and comics in general, really - as more akin to "clothes" than "collectibles."

 

When you buy an expensive shirt, or suit, or pair of shoes, you're not worried about the price at the time. Or you are, and are able to rationalise it to yourself. Same with slabs. You don't really need it, but hopefully it brings you some joy or happiness or appreciation or closer to finishing off whatever run you're after. Looking at it that way, along with staying away from the same books it seems like everyone and their mother is chasing after, keeps me from going insane at the amount of $$$ I've dropped on this stupid hobby.

 

I expect someone might bring up the utilitarian aspect of clothes, and yes, that's true. But the difference between a $40 dress shirt and a $200 one is nothing to do with utility, and in some cases not even quality

[VintageComics]

Pressing is (1) and the general economic downturn post 2008 is (1a).

 

I think you have them reversed. In fact, I believe you have them reversed.

 

There was no greater change in quality of life than the recent change in the world economy. It affected every aspect of life for people around the entire globe. Entire economies were crushed, "blue chip" corporations almost went out of business, people's savings were decimated and countless jobs were lost. Entire countries teeter on the verge of bankruptcy.

 

It's generally accepted that most collectors are middle class or upper class since lower class generally don't have the disposable income. The middle class was almost wiped out with most of the wealth shifting to the richest of the rich. That vacuuming of money out of the middle class has an effect on people's spending and collecting habits.

 

The massive rush to sell long collected collections, to find books to flip, to press books...those are all perpetuated by the need for people to supplement their income mainly because the wallets begin to tighten up at home first.

 

You put a financial strain on the main collecting class and they can no longer afford to sit on books that cost them disposable income, no matter how much they love them. You are going to increase supply as they sell for cash and decrease demand as they can no longer buy.

 

The fact that both the decrease in comic prices on more common stuff and the massive shift in the economy both happened in 2008-2009 is not just a con-incidence IMO.

[musicmeta]

I've begun looking at slabs - and comics in general, really - as more akin to "clothes" than "collectibles."

 

When you buy an expensive shirt, or suit, or pair of shoes, you're not worried about the price at the time. Or you are, and are able to rationalise it to yourself. Same with slabs. You don't really need it, but hopefully it brings you some joy or happiness or appreciation or closer to finishing off whatever run you're after. Looking at it that way, along with staying away from the same books it seems like everyone and their mother is chasing after, keeps me from going insane at the amount of $$$ I've dropped on this stupid hobby.

 

I expect someone might bring up the utilitarian aspect of clothes, and yes, that's true. But the difference between a $40 dress shirt and a $200 one is nothing to do with utility, and in some cases not even quality

 

Oh yes, I most definitely over paid for some CGC books, but at the time I bought them, I simply had to have it. No way I'm going to recoup that cost, but I don't care, it filled a hole in my collection at the time and I don't miss the money now that's been several years.

I'm getting to the point where I really like nice well graded raw comics that present well. So much cheaper more times than not.

[seanfingh]

Pressing is (1) and the general economic downturn post 2008 is (1a).

 

I think you have them reversed. In fact, I believe you have them reversed.

 

There was no greater change in quality of life than the recent change in the world economy. It affected every aspect of life for people around the entire globe. Entire economies were crushed, "blue chip" corporations almost went out of business, people's savings were decimated and countless jobs were lost. Entire countries teeter on the verge of bankruptcy.

 

It's generally accepted that most collectors are middle class or upper class since lower class generally don't have the disposable income. The middle class was almost wiped out with most of the wealth shifting to the richest of the rich. That vacuuming of money out of the middle class has an effect on people's spending and collecting habits.

 

The massive rush to sell long collected collections, to find books to flip, to press books...those are all perpetuated by the need for people to supplement their income mainly because the wallets begin to tighten up at home first.

 

You put a financial strain on the main collecting class and they can no longer afford to sit on books that cost them disposable income, no matter how much they love them. You are going to increase supply as they sell for cash and decrease demand as they can no longer buy.

 

The fact that both the decrease in comic prices on more common stuff and the massive shift in the economy both happened in 2008-2009 is not just a con-incidence IMO.

 

Right, it was a big deal, and continues to be. And as it relates to comics, it has almost as much impact as the fact that there are dozens if not hundreds of people dry mount pressing comics.

[comix4fun]

Well, I overpaid on almost everything I purchased for my old Copper X-Men collection. Luckily, I sold before that market crashed, and profited on some of the "rarer" books. Those 1 of 2 in 9.8 are more like 1 of 50+ now. "Manipulation" destroyed the market for Copper and early Modern books.

 

 

 

On copper and moderns I don't think it's manipulation to a great extent. Almost any main publisher book from 1980 to now is not rare in high grade, at all. They are out there.

 

There just had to be an incentive for someone to take a random copper or modern book that guides for $10-20 and spend $30 to slab it.

 

Incentive such as a certain elf-avatared fellow buying the "one and only" 9.8 for a crazy multiple of guide. A few years later all those copper/modern rarities are pretty common in 9.8.

 

Simply because they weren't in a slab doesn't mean they weren't 9.8's all along.