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Opinions Please....

Started by JiveTurkeyMoFo,

13 posts in this topic

JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

Posted
Posted

I was looking at a couple of listings on ebay, and I got to thinking (I know, I know; a very dangerous endeavor for me); in the event of a major downturn in the back issue market, what types of books would be the most resistant to price drops and have the chance of rebounding the quickest; keys or highest (or near highest) graded copies?

 

Let's imagine a scenario: its 2005, and the GC has devestated the high grade comic market. The few comic dealers who had any hair left before the GC have lost it all now, Spawn # 1s are being marketed on eBay as "Read-N-Wipe" toilet paper, and JC has learned four extra languages, just to make sure there is a little variety in his posts whenever he types "I told you so".

 

Now, let's take two books that currently have a fair market value of roughly $5,500; a CGC 9.4 Spider-Man # 13 and a CGC 7.0 Spider-Man # 1. Both books have equal page quality (say OW/W), and the # 1 doesn't have any major problems (like chipping), just overall wear to bring it down to 7.0.

 

So, the question is: which book would still be more coveted in the wake of a major downturn? The mid-grade, but abundant key? The HTF, very high grade # 13 with the first appearance of a mediocre villain? Which one is likely to minimize its loss of FMV the best and why? Would there still be enough high grade collectors left in the market to generate demand for a ASM # 13 in 9.4, or would the ASM # 1 win because TRUE collectors (however you want to define that term) now can better afford nice Marvel keys again?

 

Assume, for the sake of this example, that the Spidey movie franchise is still going strong, so there is still a strong pop culture attraction to the character.

 

Even if you aren't a high grade Marvel collector, I'd like feedback. Give me logic and solid reasoning or give me death!

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davidking623

davidking623

Posted
Posted
I was looking at a couple of listings on ebay, and I got to thinking (I know, I know; a very dangerous endeavor for me); in the event of a major downturn in the back issue market, what types of books would be the most resistant to price drops and have the chance of rebounding the quickest; keys or highest (or near highest) graded copies?

 

Let's imagine a scenario: its 2005, and the GC has devestated the high grade comic market. The few comic dealers who had any hair left before the GC have lost it all now, Spawn # 1s are being marketed on eBay as "Read-N-Wipe" toilet paper, and JC has learned four extra languages, just to make sure there is a little variety in his posts whenever he types "I told you so".

 

Now, let's take two books that currently have a fair market value of roughly $5,500; a CGC 9.4 Spider-Man # 13 and a CGC 7.0 Spider-Man # 1. Both books have equal page quality (say OW/W), and the # 1 doesn't have any major problems (like chipping), just overall wear to bring it down to 7.0.

 

So, the question is: which book would still be more coveted in the wake of a major downturn? The mid-grade, but abundant key? The HTF, very high grade # 13 with the first appearance of a mediocre villain? Which one is likely to minimize its loss of FMV the best and why? Would there still be enough high grade collectors left in the market to generate demand for a ASM # 13 in 9.4, or would the ASM # 1 win because TRUE collectors (however you want to define that term) now can better afford nice Marvel keys again?

 

Assume, for the sake of this example, that the Spidey movie franchise is still going strong, so there is still a strong pop culture attraction to the character.

 

Even if you aren't a high grade Marvel collector, I'd like feedback. Give me logic and solid reasoning or give me death!

 

Id say Spidey 1 based on the fact thast I have never owned one or one that nice and would rather buy that book then the 13! When and if the crash happens!

 

Davidking623

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Zanarkand

Zanarkand

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In my opinion, the ASM #1 has the staying power. If a crash occurs, with a major downturn in prices paid for Silver Age, it's not going to be because people think 7.0s are overpriced. It's going to be backlash against overpriced high grade. Even if you think that in some cases the price is justified (like maybe it's the only 9.4 or something) all high grade is likely to suffer.

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Mr. Zipper

Mr. Zipper

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Spidey 1 hands down.

 

My thinking is that if/when the downturn occurs, it will hit HG slabs the hardest. A few points:

 

* HG slabs are the playthings of investors/speculators. When this segment divests, supply will go up, demand will go down, thus the price will go down.

 

* ASM 13 is a comic that is pricey because it has characteristics that are important to comic collectors ONLY. That is, because it has a white cover, it's hard to find in certain grades like ASM 28's black cover. This is a comic collecting SPECIFIC characteristic... and I don't see this type of book surviving the test of time. In 20 years will people be paying big bucks for certain issues JUST because it has a tough black and/or white cover? I tend to doubt it. IMO, over time, characteristics like this will become less important and collectors will focus on "gold standard" issues like ASM 1.

 

* ASM 1 transcends the comic collecting market and is of interest to all sorts of collectors because it is a piece of Americana - like Superman 1, Batman 1, etc. In the foreseeable future, rich men will want a copy of the first issue of Spiderman to display in their den along with their Mickey Mantle baseballs and golf trophys -- even if they are not "comic collectors." The same CANNOT be said for ASM 13. I can't imagine a non-comic collector thinking in 20 years, "Let me get a 9.4 copy of ASM 13 because it's hard to find with a nice white cover."

 

In short, I think ASM is insulated against many of the various conditions which will result when TGC and/or natural demographic drop off occurs in the comic collecting hobby.

 

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JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

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Zipper, I think your reasoning is well articulated and I am inclined to agree.

 

My only dissent is that ASM # 13 is a tough white cover with a difficult all-black spine. Of course, like you said, I don't see too many non-comic "prestige" collectors of the future touting an ASM # 13 to their upper crust buddies because of the difficult nature of the black spine.

 

And of course, just think of how valuable ASM # 1 will be when Sony inks that three J. J. Jameson Movie deal. grin.gif

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

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The typical buyer of a ASM #13 in HG are usually recession proof kind of individuals because they are loaded so I would stick with that. Even SA collectors are a dying breed I still still there will always be a strong demand for the best quality stuff. Normally I would say that the non-key books would be hardest hit in a down turn but in this example I would still go with the HG item. Having said that I'd find it hard to unload issue #1 in favour issue #13.

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