New Guide prices

[clobberintime]

Had an interesting talk with someone at the very top of the cgc food chain the other day about pricing of high grade books and the over all market. I won't name the person but his name is the same as the first name of one of the regular celebrity guests on the Gong show. This guy was there in the beginning of the cgc rush. I was paying for some books and mentioned the recent slow down on ebay and he replied of course that ebay isn't really the market - like a lot of the big timers say. he explained that the real market money is in getting the coin collector nuts to buy comics - the problem is they can't understand why you pay multiples of guide for a 9.4 book - if the guide says $1000 then why does it cost $5000? So to "fix" this problem the big time players have gotten together with Overstreet to correct the price guide - and thereby get more of the really bigtime coin buyers into the comic book market! That way they can easily understand comic book prices and know just what to invest in. This ought to really be great for the hobby ( he says with a wink - a winkl is as good as a nod to a blind bat) I think. The idea is to put the high grade comic book prices to such a level that the coin nuts think it is worth taking a look at -right now i would imagine most serious coin collectors look down their noses at this stuff as Mr. gong show said the average coin he sold last year was $85,000.00!! So you have to get comics priced in that range to get those guys to think about it seriously. Also he related that since the market is flooded with fine to vf books, they dont have a lot of investment potential. So i guess the new guide may severely slash values on those. Hope all of you were collecting only nms cause it looks like otherwise with the change of some print, your books just became the next closest thing to Charmin. Reminds me a little bit of when the guide first changed a few years ago when the silk glovers like sothebys got into comics and got way above guide prices for stuff. The guide jacked up the nm prices and the lower grade stuff was slashed. this looks like it will be a bit more drastic though. at least it is good to know who is helping to create the new guide for us though!

[aardvark88]

The back issue market was in the doldrums for a couple of years. Then a few yrs ago, Ostreet slashed the ratio on gd, vg, fn books. Suddenly, there was a resurgence at the lower levels as collectors came back in droves to pick up what they perceived as silver age bargains at the new, lower VF & down grades. Great for raw comic collectors. Not good for the vf silver age investor who just got hammered.

[supapimp]

i think that's fine if it starts below VF+ 8.5

[ninanina]

So if your guessing the new guide is going to be slashing the prices on VF's and lower, does that mean they are? Why wouldn't they simply raise NM as you say and leave Fines and Very Fines where they are? You stated this mearly as an opinion so I am not sure what you're saying.

[FlComicFan]

I doubt the grades good to vf will see much change either up or down. I dont expect prices to go down on low grade. I expect the new NM 9.0 will be worth what 9.4 was worth more or less on 1970 and older books. That might even extend into Bronze books. I have no clue what multiplier they will use or formula for the 9.4 especially pre 1968. Those are just too violatile to accurately price. Even longtime dealers have trouble putting a price on super high grade stuff hence the person_without_enough_empathying over crazy prices. Best to put some atmosperic price and take offers. I believe for the next few years the guide will become just that a guide and not the price list many have used it as for many years. Being able to search Ebays past auctions as well as past sales on the Internet you will need to do your own research on the values of the high grade and like penny stocks they will likely be all over the place especially on post 1968 books. I do think its high time that for Golden Age books the more desirable covers get a breakout in the guide. Its ridiculous that a run of 10 Golden Age books can guide for the same price when 1 or 2 of them might have standout covers which any collector would much rather have than the common covers.

[COI]

I doubt that VF books are going to be slashed. Although they are abundant, they are still the poor man's NM( I don't mean that you're poor if you buy VF ). However, It's was obvious to me from 2 years ago that because of CGC the gap between VF and NM will widen. This dosen't mean VF's will be slashed, just that they will be substantially lower than their NM counterparts.

 

 

[FlComicFan]

yep much more common speads will widen to reflect scarcity much like coin prices. people laughed when I used to think good would be 1% of true NM one day on many books. Its all coming true the hobby is evolving into more of a mathematical/ratio based one each and every day

[ninanina]

I don't mind that at all. The way clobberintime started this thread the Apocalypse had arrived.

I also think true VF's in Silver Age, while certainly a lot more common than NM, are still a tough find. And only because a lot of the collectors are hanging onto their copies due to the fact it really is a bad time to sell.

 

Many people have already said that one of the reasons Comic Shops do not look after their back-issue buying is because what they have available barely cracks VG. As far as e-bay goes, too many sellers don't know what a VF is and sell Fines, and F/VF's as VF's. A true poor man's NM. As abundant as they are, I can't help feeling as the NM's go up, so will the VF's.

 

If you don't agree with my point of view, please give it to me right between the eyes.

[FlComicFan]

VF will appreciate on older material where there is little hope of obtaining NM's I believe most Marvel completists only reasonable goal is VF or down for runs as only a very select few could afford to put together a run of even a second tier title say Daredevil in NM. They will go up but it wont the same spikes percentage wise that NM's do. Realisitcally what has happened is that finally true high grade is ascending to closer to its trun marker price levels. VF is a fantastic copy but just isnt attarative to the investor mentality of many of the new collectors from other hobbies who are pushing the CGC price wave. Enjoy your VF's and enjoy the stable prices you can buy them for. I doubt they will be lower ever on quality vintage books and they will appreciate nicely but probably not like they did during the run up of the past 12 years or so especially on Silver.

[duncan36]

Great lets take comics further out of the hands of the people who really care about comics and make the back issue market dependant on a small number of dealers who punt ultra-high grade books back and forth amongst each other. Comics and their back issues always have been driven by fans, and those who honestly care about comics, these new trends are worrying to say the least from that standpoint.

[ninanina]

Well said.

I really don't know what's going on. Overstreet grading? CGC grading? The dealer grading? I am giving some serious thought to just sitting out the next 5 years to let everyone sort it out. When it's all over, I'll still be here and so will the hobby.

[clobberintime]

I don't know the exact details on the price spreads but that in itself is not hte point of the post. what bothers me is that it sounds like you have 5 or 6 guys sitting around decding on what the prices should be and the desire to change the price system is based on the desire to lure big money coin collectors into the market. Overstreet prices are supposed to be based on years of collected data and the wisdom of the old time dealers and collectors. Now it sounds to me that 3 years of cgc and the oppurtunity to make some quick money means you can chuck all that. Did Overstreet ever show those valiant prices at what those books sold for for a few months? Or a Superman 75 at some insane price? The idea with the only guide that really matters is that it was not going to cater to market frenzy and blips to preserve its credibility. if they are changing the guide for the above stated reasons i think credibility is gone. and what happens in a couple of years when the coin specs tire of looking at those plastic cgc holders and try to resell at a profit? And the base line assumption to this grading scheme is that anything below 9.0 is not desirable. In the last few years I have been lucky to have the income to buy some nice books - books that I have lusted after for nearly 30 years. before that i bought in grades i could afford which was fine to vf. only a handful of real collectors can afford the really high grade stuff now - but it sounds like soon all the really top end stuff may be in the hands of guys who have no real idea who Ditko is or why spidey 28 is so cool or what is important about FF 13. I view comics as part of my youth and those times, and also as an investment. it sounds like that cgc coupled with the new guide startegy is aimed at making them just another investment commodity - which will make the people who really want the books or know anything about them have absolutely no chance of ever owning them.

[clobberintime]

I also told the person i was speaking with about all this about my problems seeing any visible differences in books in the 9.2 to 9.8 range. I have had many posts stating that I can see not much visible differences in any books graded above 9.2 that could justify the big prices jumps. He assured me that those differnces did exist and the incremental price jumps come from the coin market - for example a 9.8 coin might fetch several hundred thousand more dollars than a 9.4! If you remember the very first Manning auctions that is where a lot of the cgc pricing and "values" began their evolution as one entity bought about 99% of the material and as to speak established the market. Dont get me wrong - I am no chicken little market crash guy as many of the old timers around here know. But i am worried that bad things are on the horizon. artificial manipulation of prices in one way or another is not a good thing!

[ninanina]

Thanks for clearing that up. What you describe is scary. Duncan36 has already suggested we get together and decide our own prices to set ourselves apart from what's happening at CGC/Overstreet. If what you're suggesting happens, perhaps many of the collectors (like you and me) may just tell Overstreet to take a flying leap sideways as quite perhaps they may not be the "experts" they used to be. But somehow, I just can't see them reducing VF and lower to the levels suggested on your earlier post.

[PovertyRow]

I also told the person i was speaking with about all this about my problems seeing any visible differences in books in the 9.2 to 9.8 range.

 

Well take a 32 or 52 or 100 or whatever page item, put it in a sealed holder so only the front first 1 and last back pages show and the answer may be there.

[fantastic_four]

If the early Manning auctions mostly had items consigned and bought by the same person as the rumor goes, I don't see how it's fraud. A little manipulation, yeah, but all of us spending big bucks on books are doing so basically because we want to. This guy here seems to have no problem with paying the normal multiples of guide:

 

http://cgi3.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?MfcISAPICommand=ViewBidItems&userid=voodoocrashcult&completed=1&sort=3&all=0&rows=0

 

The guy you talked to made it sound a bit underhanded, with all the talk of raising the prices for the coin guys; but it's mostly non-coin guys paying those exact same prices, so I don't see a big problem with the legitimization of the prices that these books are going for. And based upon your bidding, I don't think you really do either.

[Lockjaw]

Sigh, this whole thread sounds like it got started based on one of those a friend of a friend told me type stories (I am trying to hint that it sounds like the idea that Overstreet is going to enter into some sort of pact with high-end dealers to reel in the coin guys sounds more like an urban myth than something grounded in facts).

 

Anyone else on this thread willing to agree with me? It is just too naive to believe that "the person" Clobberintime claims to have chatted with is some sort of grading/comic information kingpin that is going to provide proof that the changes this group of people he/she has spoken with (who or whatever they may be, animal, vegetable, mineral...who knows) wants will be showing up down the road in the Overstreet price guide. Not to mention this person can claim what they want when the guide comes out, as they have not provided any evidence to show that this unknown group presented idea A to Overstreet, and lo and behold, what "they" wanted to change has actually happened.

 

I think I garbled my point a bit...but I think everyone on these threads understands what I am trying to say. If it swims like a fish, looks like a fish, taste like a fish...this story looks and sounds fishy to me. By the way Clobberintime, even if you provide a "name," this means nothing...I can claim I talked to President Bush yesterday, but unless I can come up with some concrete evidence of this, one might as well believe I spoke to Bob Jablonsky, just as sure as they believe I spoke to President Bush. Not trying to pick on you, but your "conversation" with said person could have easily come from your imagination, just as easily as it could be true.

 

Regards

Christopher H.

 

[fantastic_four]

What we do know for a fact is that Overstreet will begin to list 9.0 prices in the next guide.

 

What we don't know yet but are all guessing is that the 9.4 prices will slide down into the 9.0 slot for Silver and below, and also possibly for some Bronze books. And that the 9.4 prices might reflect some of the multiples currently being paid in the marketplace.

 

There are a lot of ways to characterize the price increase for 9.4 if this does occur...you could say it's a result of the confidence CGC has instilled in people to pay higher prices for unrestored, well-graded comics. You could say it's to more accurately inform people out of touch with the market of the going prices, and that could be coin guys, collectors out of the hobby for many years, or somebody's grandma selling her late husband's collection. Or you could say it's because of a tightening up in Overstreet's grading to coincide with his new release of the 2003 Grading Guide which lowered the population of books that people were previously calling NM 9.4.

 

However you characterize it, the guy Clobberintime talked to is probably right; he just stated it in a way that sounds controversial.

[supapimp]

However you characterize it, the guy Clobberintime talked to is probably right; he just stated it in a way that sounds controversial.

 

if you don't release the name it's always going to be controversial

[fantastic_four]

Well he said the guy shares a first name with a regular from the Gong show...an Internet search shows the regulars were Jaye P. Morgan, Arte Johnson, Rip Taylor, and Jamie Farr...any guesses as to which one he meant?