ASM 121 vs ASM 328 on the OCAL

[glenbru]

I've just updated the OCAL with a little debate of which cover will ultimately hammer for more in the upcoming Heritage auction.

 

Love for all to stop by and chime in with opinions!

 

Thanks,

Glen

 

http://originalcomicartlocator.blogspot.com/2013/02/art-highlight-asm-121-vs-asm-328.html

[delekkerste]

ASM #121 is a better and more important cover in every way than ASM #328. That said, a $700K+ price for the #121, as nice as it is, would still strike me as being pretty out there. Maybe not as much as the #328's $657K, but that price is regarded by nearly all as the ultimate outlier and should really not be used as any sort of market benchmark (I would add that few believe that we have heard the full story behind that purchase). Should the #121 hammer for less than the #328, as I expect it will (though, you can't rule anything out these days) it would be no reflection on the worthiness of the former as opposed to the odiously offensive price paid for the latter.

 

I do agree with your point, though, that even aberrant sales like the #328 can and do influence the confidence of bidders to pay more. You saw it also with the DD #188 cover, which showed that a cover didn't need to be key/historic or even that old to fetch 6-figures and also with the DKR #3 splash, which made everything else look positively cheap by comparison (even if they really weren't).

 

I don't think there is any statistically significant predictive power to comparing the prices of lots at any point before the actual sale dates, let alone 2+ weeks in advance. Sometimes pieces get bid up to the point where they get no more bids in the live session; other times prices multiply several fold or more during the live bidding. It's all pretty much meaningless until the final hammer comes down.

[glenbru]

If we discount the ASM 328 cover and call it and aberration, what do we say about the DKR splash vs the ASM 121 cover, Gene?

 

Shouldn't the 121 cover be worth more than the DKR splash? It would be IMHO.

 

Glen

[lb jefferies]

I think once you get in this stratosphere it's pointless to compare one sale price to another. At a certain point it goes past "market value" and becomes a battle between two or more "gotta have it" collectors. That certain point being somewhere (far) below the ASM 328 cover and the DKR splash.

[Nexus]

If we discount the ASM 328 cover and call it and aberration, what do we say about the DKR splash vs the ASM 121 cover, Gene?

 

Shouldn't the 121 cover be worth more than the DKR splash? It would be IMHO.

 

Glen

 

IMHO, what the ASM #121 cover is "worth" has nothing to do with the DKR splash. What we've seen at these upper levels is that the buyers will simply pay whatever it takes to get their piece, without regard to any comps. Relative worth/value isn't a consideration. So forget ASM #328 or DKR splash or any other outlier sale. The ASM #121 cover will sell for whatever it's going to sell for.

[glenbru]

I think the comparison becomes a which would you rather have--at any price point..and more so at higher price points.

 

Don't we all constantly see people blow good money on something and think that we would have known how to spend their money better than them?

[Nexus]

I'll also add that where the bid currently stands, especially compared to where the #328 cover stood at the same point during its listing, is completely meaningless as well.

[glenbru]

It's always a consideration for a buyer when we're below the relative comps. Once the auction has gone above the comps it's anybody's guess where it will end and can become a battle between two parties that have to have it. I do think interested bidders pay attention to those comps--even if they're suspect.

[glenbru]

It's information. You can choose to ignore it if you like. I do think its worth considering.

 

I'll also add that where the bid currently stands, especially compared to where the #328 cover stood at the same point during its listing, is completely meaningless as well.

[delekkerste]

If we discount the ASM 328 cover and call it and aberration, what do we say about the DKR splash vs the ASM 121 cover, Gene?

 

Shouldn't the 121 cover be worth more than the DKR splash? It would be IMHO.

 

Glen

 

I think the #121 should be worth more than the DKR splash, yes. But that just tells me that the DKR splash has no business being valued anywhere near $448K. I'd be curious to know if anyone actually thinks the splash is still worth that much? My guess is that it wouldn't fetch anywhere near that amount in a no-reserve auction now, even with the overall market substantially higher, after removing the high bidder from the first time around (i.e., the owner) from the equation.

 

Not to mention that he'd have to get more like $475K now to break even with inflation and that's assuming zero auction fees and having paid no sales tax at the time of purchase. Assuming a 10% commission rate, 8.25% sales tax at time of purchase and 6% inflation since time of purchase, the owner would need to get $571K just to breakeven in real terms. Going through Heritage at 19.5% and no seller's commission gets you $639K. You can't just look in the rear-view mirror on this stuff. Comic art used to be cheap. Now it fetches big bucks. Sure, it's nothing compared to high-end contemporary art, but, then again, the pool of capital chasing it is minuscule by comparison.

 

If you actually do the math, like I have, I don't think it's far-fetched at all to say that there is very likely a growing # of pieces being bought nowadays that will never be resold at a price high enough to compensate for future inflation and transaction costs. And, should that really be any surprise? High-end OA was probably already appreciating at an unsustainable 15-20% per annum clip between 2009 and 2011 before the roof blew off last year. If you paid $657K for the ASM #328 cover, you basically paid for the next 50-75 years of potential price appreciation on day 1. I suspect that the cover was bought at that price because of a strong emotional attachment to it. And you know what? That's perfectly fine if you have that kind of money to spend. Emotional attachment is the only reason why people should be spending ludicrous sums like that on comic art. Anyone thinking that they can pay up like that and have the art be the cash cow it used to be at these price levels I think is going to be in for a rude shock at some point. At these kinds of prices, I think these are trophies to be won and enjoyed, not safe places to park your money.

[delekkerste]

IMHO, what the ASM #121 cover is "worth" has nothing to do with the DKR splash. What we've seen at these upper levels is that the buyers will simply pay whatever it takes to get their piece, without regard to any comps. Relative worth/value isn't a consideration. So forget ASM #328 or DKR splash or any other outlier sale. The ASM #121 cover will sell for whatever it's going to sell for.

 

Bingo. What these trophy pieces sell for has everything to do with what a very small number of potential buyers will pay to get their piece and very little about anything else. Whatever the final hammer price paid is often has little to do with what the piece should ostensibly be worth, either absolutely or relative to other comps. I also think the "value" ascribed to a piece from the winning bid is also very misleading, as I showed with my DKR #3 splash example above. All of these pieces, if resold immediately after purchase, would resell at a loss between taxes, transaction costs and the removal of the high bidder from the proceedings. Inflation will also raise the real (inflation-adjusted) bar to breakeven, let alone profit, going forward as well.

[glenbru]

If we discount the ASM 328 cover and call it and aberration, what do we say about the DKR splash vs the ASM 121 cover, Gene?

 

Shouldn't the 121 cover be worth more than the DKR splash? It would be IMHO.

 

Glen

 

I think the #121 should be worth more than the DKR splash, yes. But that just tells me that the DKR splash has no business being valued anywhere near $448K. I'd be curious to know if anyone actually thinks the splash is still worth that much? My guess is that it wouldn't fetch anywhere near that amount in a no-reserve auction now, even with the overall market substantially higher, after removing the high bidder from the first time around (i.e., the owner) from the equation.

 

Not to mention that he'd have to get more like $475K now to break even with inflation and that's assuming zero auction fees and having paid no sales tax at the time of purchase. Assuming a 10% commission rate, 8.25% sales tax at time of purchase and 6% inflation since time of purchase, the owner would need to get $571K just to breakeven in real terms. Going through Heritage at 19.5% and no seller's commission gets you $639K. You can't just look in the rear-view mirror on this stuff. Comic art used to be cheap. Now it fetches big bucks. Sure, it's nothing compared to high-end contemporary art, but, then again, the pool of capital chasing it is minuscule by comparison.

 

If you actually do the math, like I have, I don't think it's far-fetched at all to say that there is very likely a growing # of pieces being bought nowadays that will never be resold at a price high enough to compensate for future inflation and transaction costs. And, should that really be any surprise? High-end OA was probably already appreciating at an unsustainable 15-20% per annum clip between 2009 and 2011 before the roof blew off last year. If you paid $657K for the ASM #328 cover, you basically paid for the next 50-75 years of potential price appreciation on day 1. I suspect that the cover was bought at that price because of a strong emotional attachment to it. And you know what? That's perfectly fine if you have that kind of money to spend. Emotional attachment is the only reason why people should be spending ludicrous sums like that on comic art. Anyone thinking that they can pay up like that and have the art be the cash cow it used to be at these price levels I think is going to be in for a rude shock at some point. At these kinds of prices, I think these are trophies to be won and enjoyed, not safe places to park your money.

 

 

That's fair to say, Gene. However, If you were able to pick up the 121 cover at or less than the price of DKR splash I think you stand a much better chance of turning a future profit on the 121 than on the DKR. That's not scientific. Its just what my gut tells me.

[Nexus]

I think the comparison becomes a which would you rather have--at any price point..and more so at higher price points.

 

What you or I or Joe Blow or anyone else who isn't going to be a player at these levels would rather have is a fun "What If?" scenario in the same vein as who would win in a fight, the Hulk or the Thing. But all that really matters is what the real players would rather have. I'm going to guess that the real buyer of ASM #328 isn't going to be a player for ASM #121. In a broader sense, I'm guessing there's actually very little crossover appeal between the two, despite both depicting the same character. How many fans of #121 also place a similarly high value (not just monetarily, but in terms of significance) on #328? Let alone DKR. There really isn't much to connect the two with regards to potential auction results, when the intended audiences differ so much.

 

The one commonality they share is that they're considered "A" trophy pieces. That, more than anything else, will determine where #121 finishes.

 

Don't we all constantly see people blow good money on something and think that we would have known how to spend their money better than them?

 

Yes, but I doubt any of those BSDs care if we approve of how they blow their money.

[Nexus]

It can be information, but it can also be noise. In this case, I believe it's noise. I don't believe how #328 did will have much bearing on #121.

 

And, to answer an earlier question, I personally find ASM #121 to be more impressive than either the DKR splash or the ASM #328 cover. It may be the most "important" piece of OA I've seen auctioned by Heritage. But for my own personal nostalgia, I would rather have the DKR splash. I don't think any of that will have any effect on this current auction.

 

It's information. You can choose to ignore it if you like. I do think its worth considering.

 

I'll also add that where the bid currently stands, especially compared to where the #328 cover stood at the same point during its listing, is completely meaningless as well.

[ashrael]

While I consider the ASM 121 cover more desirable and valuable, I am not sure that its final price can get hit the (too high) price of the 328. I would think the ASM 122 cover would have a much better chance of besting the ASM 328.

[alxjhnsn]

The final price for ASM 121 will depend on whether on not there are two wealthy people of the right generation to bid on it. It won't be for its artistic merit; nostalgia and historical significance will drive that bad boy.

 

BTW, I like the cover as a cover. I thought it was effective when I bought it off the rack and I think its effective now. Plus you get head shots of everyone by JR and a Spidey butt shot.

[batman_fan]

I think the comparison becomes a which would you rather have--at any price point..and more so at higher price points.

 

What you or I or Joe Blow or anyone else who isn't going to be a player at these levels would rather have is a fun "What If?" scenario in the same vein as who would win in a fight, the Hulk or the Thing. But all that really matters is what the real players would rather have. I'm going to guess that the real buyer of ASM #328 isn't going to be a player for ASM #121. In a broader sense, I'm guessing there's actually very little crossover appeal between the two, despite both depicting the same character. How many fans of #121 also place a similarly high value (not just monetarily, but in terms of significance) on #328? Let alone DKR. There really isn't much to connect the two with regards to potential auction results, when the intended audiences differ so much.

 

The one commonality they share is that they're considered "A" trophy pieces. That, more than anything else, will determine where #121 finishes.

 

Don't we all constantly see people blow good money on something and think that we would have known how to spend their money better than them?

 

Yes, but I doubt any of those BSDs care if we approve of how they blow their money.

 

I share your thoughts. I could definitely throw out a number that I think these pieces will go for, but since I am not playing, it really has no meaning other than to be a matter of "I can guess a bigger number than you". Now if we are talking about a piece I really want than is in the $5k to $10k range, then my opinion may matter (but I would likely not give it).

[VintageComics]

ASM #328 is a good cover?

 

 

Before that cover set a record nobody would have looked twice at it compared to all the other covers in the canon.

 

 

[Overthetopinc]

Dont know about all that Vintagecomics...I had been saying for years if that 328 cover ever showed up it would go for over 200k. Fans of Mcfarlane will always put 316,328 and spidey 1 up there with the best of the best. All depends who you ask.

thanks,

Matthew

[delekkerste]

Let's also not forget that, before last July's Heritage auction, the consensus was that the Spider-Man #1 cover was McFarlane's best and most valuable Spidey cover (I think most people would still agree with that, the nutty #328 sale result notwithstanding). That is probably the most iconic cover of the past 25 years and it fetched a comparatively reasonable $358,500. I absolutely think this cover should be worth more than both the DKR #3 splash and the ASM #328 cover. IMO, it should be worth more than the ASM #121 cover as well.

 

It's easy to say that, "the ASM #121 cover is a better cover than the ASM #328 cover, so why couldn't it sell for more". But, it's a far less clear-cut comparison when you compare the ASM #121 to the McSpidey #1 cover, especially when the latter sold for much less than the far inferior #328.