I always thought deflation would ruin the OA market

[SAM MALONE-migration]

but it seems I was wrong.

 

It seems the Federal Reserve has decided they are going to print money forever.

 

I think this may be good for OA.

 

That said, I am not a market professional so I could be wrong.

[Bronty]

25 posts? How are you not banned yet?

[delekkerste]

but it seems I was wrong.

 

It seems the Federal Reserve has decided they are going to print money forever.

 

I think this may be good for OA.

 

That said, I am not a market professional so I could be wrong.

 

The Fed started buying $40 billion/month of mortgage-backed securities in September 2012 and added $45 billion in monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury securities in December 2012. This came on the heels of two earlier rounds of quantitative easing which totaled well over a trillion dollars.

 

And yet, the price of gold is down 30% (it was down almost 40% at one point over the summer). Silver prices are down by well over half. The CRB Commodity Index is still about 40% below its 2008 high and more than 20% below where it was 2 years ago despite all the quantitative easing. Of course, most U.S. real estate is still recovering from the crash as well. And the U.S. dollar, far from going the way of Zimbabwe as you have said was imminent for years, was actually at a multi-year high this summer before weakening a bit recently. But, yes, do go on about how the Fed printing money is causing rampant hard asset price inflation.

 

Better to be silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

[SAM MALONE-migration]

so just to be clear . . . you are still waiting for Prechter's predictions to play out?

 

 

but it seems I was wrong.

 

It seems the Federal Reserve has decided they are going to print money forever.

 

I think this may be good for OA.

 

That said, I am not a market professional so I could be wrong.

 

The Fed started buying $40 billion/month of mortgage-backed securities in September 2012 and added $45 billion in monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury securities in December 2012. This came on the heels of two earlier rounds of quantitative easing which totaled well over a trillion dollars.

 

And yet, the price of gold is down 30% (it was down almost 40% at one point over the summer). Silver prices are down by well more than half. The CRB Commodity Index is still about 40% below its 2008 high and more than 20% below where it was 2 years ago despite all the quantitative easing. Of course, most U.S. real estate is still recovering from the crash as well. And the U.S. dollar, far from going the way of Zimbabwe as you have said was imminent for years, was actually at a multi-year high this summer before weakening a bit recently. But, yes, do go on about how the Fed printing money is causing rampant hard asset price inflation.

 

Better to be silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

[delekkerste]

so just to be clear . . . you are still waiting for Prechter's predictions to play out?

 

If you've been reading the investment thread in the Water Cooler, you'll know that there's been no bigger bull than me on these Boards over the past year. So, no, I haven't been waiting for Prechter's or anyone else's predictions to play out.

 

Prechter had a great run of calls from 1978-1987 and again from 1999 to 2010, but was ice cold from 1988 to 1998 and again the past few years. There have been times when I've agreed with him and times when I haven't, sometimes to my benefit and sometimes to my detriment. He has definitely been more right than the hyperinflationists, though, as the disinflationary environment, the strength of the U.S. dollar and decline in precious metals and other commodity prices attests to over the past couple of years. Finally, for the record, I have never been on board with Prechter's more extreme predictions, as I have long believed that his predictions do not take into consideration the extreme devaluation of the U.S. dollar over the decades.

 

As for OA, the market has clearly been more influenced by non-macro factors over the past few years. While the Fed's policies certainly haven't hurt the OA market environment, with gold and other hard asset prices tanking during this period, clearly they have not been the determining factor for OA's rise.

[Junkdrawer]

so just to be clear . . . you are still waiting for Prechter's predictions to play out?

 

If you've been reading the investment thread in the Water Cooler, you'll know that there's been no bigger bull than me on these Boards over the past year. So, no, I haven't been waiting for Prechter's or anyone else's predictions to play out.

 

Prechter had a great run of calls from 1978-1987 and again from 1999 to 2010, but was ice cold from 1988 to 1998 and again the past few years. There have been times when I've agreed with him and times when I haven't, sometimes to my benefit and sometimes to my detriment. He has definitely been more right than the hyperinflationists, though, as the disinflationary environment and strength of the U.S. dollar and decline in precious metals and other commodity prices attests to over the past couple of years. Finally, for the record, I have never been on board with Prechter's more extreme predictions, as I have long believed that his predictions do not take into consideration the extreme devaluation of the U.S. dollar over the decades.

 

As for OA, the market has clearly been more influenced by non-macro factors over the past few years. While the Fed's policies certainly haven't hurt the OA market environment, with gold and other hard asset prices tanking during this period, clearly they have not been the determining factor for OA's rise.

I couldnt have said it better Tennis anyone?