Historical Price Data - Revised to include 'Fine' data on pg 4 (not good)

[HarveySwick]

 

Thanks for all of the hard work Mark!

[rjrjr]

My analysis is complete. I looked at all price data from 1970-2013. Took out the 70s data to make the data more statistically significant. Additionally, I took out the 2 BA books and really just focused on 14 GA books and 12 SA books from 1980-present. If you just look at the return of the Dow Jones (DJIA) based on pricing, it's not really accurate, as those stocks pay dividends - so I compared the return of comic books vs. the DJIA with dividends reinvested. I broke the data down by decade.

 

Both a GA portfolio of books AND a SA portfolio of books outperformed the market by more than 3X. It's not like 1980 through 2012 was a rough time for the stock market, you would have made 42X your money during this time. It just so happens certain comic books returned 3X that. That means that $10,000 invested in the DJIA in 1980 would be worth $419,600 at the end of 2012, as where if the same were invested in comics, it would be worth around $1.3M at the end of 2012. I did not pick only the best performing the comic books, but I did pick mainly mega-key superhero books.

 

Here is a write up of my analysis for those interested, hope you enjoy:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/605970-mark-diestler/2508951-looking-for-last-minute-gift-ideas-comic-books-make-a-great-gift-and-an-even-better-investment

 

So, what you are saying is the comic book market (GA and SA) is in a bubble?

 

I think most of us already knew that. The questions are, when does the bubble burst and who will be left holding the bag?

 

I do not think it is wise to tell people comics or any collectible are better investments than stock long term. Just my opinion.

 

And now that I re-read what I wrote, it sounds awfully harsh.

 

I do want to thank you for the hard work you put into this, even if I disagree with your conclusions.

[RedGiant]

My analysis is complete. I looked at all price data from 1970-2013. Took out the 70s data to make the data more statistically significant. Additionally, I took out the 2 BA books and really just focused on 14 GA books and 12 SA books from 1980-present. If you just look at the return of the Dow Jones (DJIA) based on pricing, it's not really accurate, as those stocks pay dividends - so I compared the return of comic books vs. the DJIA with dividends reinvested. I broke the data down by decade.

 

Both a GA portfolio of books AND a SA portfolio of books outperformed the market by more than 3X. It's not like 1980 through 2012 was a rough time for the stock market, you would have made 42X your money during this time. It just so happens certain comic books returned 3X that. That means that $10,000 invested in the DJIA in 1980 would be worth $419,600 at the end of 2012, as where if the same were invested in comics, it would be worth around $1.3M at the end of 2012. I did not pick only the best performing the comic books, but I did pick mainly mega-key superhero books.

 

Here is a write up of my analysis for those interested, hope you enjoy:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/605970-mark-diestler/2508951-looking-for-last-minute-gift-ideas-comic-books-make-a-great-gift-and-an-even-better-investment

 

So, what you are saying is the comic book market (GA and SA) is in a bubble?

 

I think most of us already knew that. The questions are, when does the bubble burst and who will be left holding the bag?

 

I do not think it is wise to tell people comics or any collectible are better investments than stock long term. Just my opinion.

 

And now that I re-read what I wrote, it sounds awfully harsh.

 

I do want to thank you for the hard work you put into this, even if I disagree with your conclusions.

 

If you thought my conclusion was that we were in a bubble and that I thought that bubble was going to burst soon, then you must have been reading into my analysis too much, because that was not my conclusion. While I do point out that the comic book investment bubble is yet to burst, that does not mean it will do so anytime soon. There are bubbles everywhere. I actually think investing in GA or SA is a great investment (for certain books) and that is what people should be taking away from my analysis.

[rjrjr]

My analysis is complete. I looked at all price data from 1970-2013. Took out the 70s data to make the data more statistically significant. Additionally, I took out the 2 BA books and really just focused on 14 GA books and 12 SA books from 1980-present. If you just look at the return of the Dow Jones (DJIA) based on pricing, it's not really accurate, as those stocks pay dividends - so I compared the return of comic books vs. the DJIA with dividends reinvested. I broke the data down by decade.

 

Both a GA portfolio of books AND a SA portfolio of books outperformed the market by more than 3X. It's not like 1980 through 2012 was a rough time for the stock market, you would have made 42X your money during this time. It just so happens certain comic books returned 3X that. That means that $10,000 invested in the DJIA in 1980 would be worth $419,600 at the end of 2012, as where if the same were invested in comics, it would be worth around $1.3M at the end of 2012. I did not pick only the best performing the comic books, but I did pick mainly mega-key superhero books.

 

Here is a write up of my analysis for those interested, hope you enjoy:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/605970-mark-diestler/2508951-looking-for-last-minute-gift-ideas-comic-books-make-a-great-gift-and-an-even-better-investment

 

So, what you are saying is the comic book market (GA and SA) is in a bubble?

 

I think most of us already knew that. The questions are, when does the bubble burst and who will be left holding the bag?

 

I do not think it is wise to tell people comics or any collectible are better investments than stock long term. Just my opinion.

 

And now that I re-read what I wrote, it sounds awfully harsh.

 

I do want to thank you for the hard work you put into this, even if I disagree with your conclusions.

 

If you thought my conclusion was that we were in a bubble and that I thought that bubble was going to burst soon, then you must have been reading into my analysis too much, because that was not my conclusion. While I do point out that the comic book investment bubble is yet to burst, that does not mean it will do so anytime soon. There are bubbles everywhere. I actually think investing in GA or SA is a great investment (for certain books) and that is what people should be taking away from my analysis.

 

That is the conclusion I disagree with. Investing in comics or any collectible is not a great investment, again, in my opinion.

[RedGiant]

I do not think it is wise to tell people comics or any collectible are better investments than stock long term. Just my opinion.

 

The comics in my analysis have been a better investment over the past 30+ years - that's a fact. Doesn't mean it will continue and I would never tell people that comics are a better investment than stocks. I do state in the article NOT to cash out your 401k to buy comic books. I am just presenting some material for investment consideration, alternative investments. If you are looking to stock away some money and don't want to buy stocks or real estate and are looking to put your money somewhere, I am suggesting that certain comic books could be considered.

[NinjaSealed]

Just wanted to say great article and I hope the SA guys don't beat up on it too hard in the comments. I actually forwarded it to my father who always loves unconventional investments and has been lightly debating buying a book or two.

 

I will let you know what he thinks of it when he replies to me.

 

One interesting thing I thought of is even though the books are essentially cherry picked versus the market as a whole, (Obviously you could cherry pick companies who outperformed over this time.) "discovering" which books to invest in is a hell of a lot easier than picking the next apple.

[Ebel 1911]

Interesting stuff, thanks.

[AJD]

I had a crack at this a few years ago as well. See this post and forward.

 

Haven't updated it for a while though.

[RedGiant]

Just wanted to say great article and I hope the SA guys don't beat up on it too hard in the comments. I actually forwarded it to my father who always loves unconventional investments and has been lightly debating buying a book or two.

 

I will let you know what he thinks of it when he replies to me.

 

One interesting thing I thought of is even though the books are essentially cherry picked versus the market as a whole, (Obviously you could cherry pick companies who outperformed over this time.) "discovering" which books to invest in is a hell of a lot easier than picking the next apple.

Thanks for the kind words (everyone) and for passing it on to your father. As for the "cherry picked" comment, I was thinking the same thing when I wrote it, but while writing I really didn't think this was cherry picking. Sure, these are generally the "cream of the crop" books, but the analysis begins with 1980. All of these books had been in the market for 20 years or more and had already been established as "mega-keys." If you bought an Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27 in 1980 vs today, you would have been buying a massive book and spending a ridiculous amount of money on a comic book. Same holds true for the SA books, although not quite to the same gravity. This isn't the same in my mind as looking at the 30 best performing stock since 1980 - that would be cherry picking. This article doesn't compare those two, I feel this portfolio of comics is essentially the equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "cream of the crop" when it comes to individual stocks) - that is why I compared 26 great books to 30 great stocks. While it's not quite apples to apples, it was the closest and fairest comparison I could think of.

[RedGiant]

I had a crack at this a few years ago as well. See this post and forward.

 

Haven't updated it for a while though.

Thanks for sharing, I think my next step in the process may be to look at 'Fine" values instead of top values. See how those numbers shake out. I had thought about doing that when I started this journey but for simplicity reasons just looked at top value (as they are listed in a chart at the start of each OSPG, so I didn't have to look up each book individually). If I look at 'Fine' values which may represent a more fair assessment(?) then it will take quite a bit more time as I will have to look up each book for each year.

[NinjaSealed]

Just wanted to say great article and I hope the SA guys don't beat up on it too hard in the comments. I actually forwarded it to my father who always loves unconventional investments and has been lightly debating buying a book or two.

 

I will let you know what he thinks of it when he replies to me.

 

One interesting thing I thought of is even though the books are essentially cherry picked versus the market as a whole, (Obviously you could cherry pick companies who outperformed over this time.) "discovering" which books to invest in is a hell of a lot easier than picking the next apple.

Thanks for the kind words (everyone) and for passing it on to your father. As for the "cherry picked" comment, I was thinking the same thing when I wrote it, but while writing I really didn't think this was cherry picking. Sure, these are generally the "cream of the crop" books, but the analysis begins with 1980. All of these books had been in the market for 20 years or more and had already been established as "mega-keys." If you bought an Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27 in 1980 vs today, you would have been buying a massive book and spending a ridiculous amount of money on a comic book. Same holds true for the SA books, although not quite to the same gravity. This isn't the same in my mind as looking at the 30 best performing stock since 1980 - that would be cherry picking. This article doesn't compare those two, I feel this portfolio of comics is essentially the equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "cream of the crop" when it comes to individual stocks) - that is why I compared 26 great books to 30 great stocks. While it's not quite apples to apples, it was the closest and fairest comparison I could think of.

 

This is actually what I was trying to say in my post and just worded it horribly.

I think it is a very reasonable way to make the comparison, and the results to me are actually pretty surprising.

[thunsicker]

Just wanted to say great article and I hope the SA guys don't beat up on it too hard in the comments. I actually forwarded it to my father who always loves unconventional investments and has been lightly debating buying a book or two.

 

I will let you know what he thinks of it when he replies to me.

 

One interesting thing I thought of is even though the books are essentially cherry picked versus the market as a whole, (Obviously you could cherry pick companies who outperformed over this time.) "discovering" which books to invest in is a hell of a lot easier than picking the next apple.

Thanks for the kind words (everyone) and for passing it on to your father. As for the "cherry picked" comment, I was thinking the same thing when I wrote it, but while writing I really didn't think this was cherry picking. Sure, these are generally the "cream of the crop" books, but the analysis begins with 1980. All of these books had been in the market for 20 years or more and had already been established as "mega-keys." If you bought an Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27 in 1980 vs today, you would have been buying a massive book and spending a ridiculous amount of money on a comic book. Same holds true for the SA books, although not quite to the same gravity. This isn't the same in my mind as looking at the 30 best performing stock since 1980 - that would be cherry picking. This article doesn't compare those two, I feel this portfolio of comics is essentially the equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "cream of the crop" when it comes to individual stocks) - that is why I compared 26 great books to 30 great stocks. While it's not quite apples to apples, it was the closest and fairest comparison I could think of.

 

I don't buy that these comics are the equivalent of the DJIA. It would be more like if you were prescient enough to buy these 25 stocks 25 years ago.

 

Top 25 stocks of last 25 years.

 

That said interesting analysis.

 

EDIT: (82-07, not sure what it would look like now)

[RedGiant]

Just wanted to say great article and I hope the SA guys don't beat up on it too hard in the comments. I actually forwarded it to my father who always loves unconventional investments and has been lightly debating buying a book or two.

 

I will let you know what he thinks of it when he replies to me.

 

One interesting thing I thought of is even though the books are essentially cherry picked versus the market as a whole, (Obviously you could cherry pick companies who outperformed over this time.) "discovering" which books to invest in is a hell of a lot easier than picking the next apple.

Thanks for the kind words (everyone) and for passing it on to your father. As for the "cherry picked" comment, I was thinking the same thing when I wrote it, but while writing I really didn't think this was cherry picking. Sure, these are generally the "cream of the crop" books, but the analysis begins with 1980. All of these books had been in the market for 20 years or more and had already been established as "mega-keys." If you bought an Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27 in 1980 vs today, you would have been buying a massive book and spending a ridiculous amount of money on a comic book. Same holds true for the SA books, although not quite to the same gravity. This isn't the same in my mind as looking at the 30 best performing stock since 1980 - that would be cherry picking. This article doesn't compare those two, I feel this portfolio of comics is essentially the equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "cream of the crop" when it comes to individual stocks) - that is why I compared 26 great books to 30 great stocks. While it's not quite apples to apples, it was the closest and fairest comparison I could think of.

 

I don't buy that these comics are the equivalent of the DJIA. It would be more like if you were prescient enough to buy these 25 stocks 25 years ago.

 

Top 25 stocks of last 25 years.

 

That said interesting analysis.

 

EDIT: (82-07, not sure what it would look like now)

I think the opposite (and that's the point I'm trying to illustrate) - if you were a stock investor in 1982, you wouldn't know to buy those companies, but you'd be okay buying a portfolio of top companies at the time (the DJIA). In 1980 you might not know that ABC comic would return a billion percent over the next 30 years, but (generally speaking) all the books that I analyzed were massive books in 1980 - so if you were investing in comic books at the time, I think it is reasonable to assume purchasing the "top dogs" at the time would be similar to buying the DJIA.

[thunsicker]

So I don't know this, but were those in fact the top 10 GA and SA comics in the overstreet guide for 1980?

[RedGiant]

So I don't know this, but were those in fact the top 10 GA and SA comics in the overstreet guide for 1980?

My analysis looks at 14 GA and 12 SA, were they all the top in 1980? No. Are they are all the top in 2013? No. Some are the top, most are top 10 (BOTH for 1980 through today), but there are some that were not in the top 10 ever. For example, Crypt of Terror 17 is today only a $5300 book, for a GA book, nowhere near the charts.

[ComicConnoisseur]

My analysis is complete. I looked at all price data from 1970-2013. Took out the 70s data to make the data more statistically significant. Additionally, I took out the 2 BA books and really just focused on 14 GA books and 12 SA books from 1980-present. If you just look at the return of the Dow Jones (DJIA) based on pricing, it's not really accurate, as those stocks pay dividends - so I compared the return of comic books vs. the DJIA with dividends reinvested. I broke the data down by decade.

 

Both a GA portfolio of books AND a SA portfolio of books outperformed the market by more than 3X. It's not like 1980 through 2012 was a rough time for the stock market, you would have made 42X your money during this time. It just so happens certain comic books returned 3X that. That means that $10,000 invested in the DJIA in 1980 would be worth $419,600 at the end of 2012, as where if the same were invested in comics, it would be worth around $1.3M at the end of 2012. I did not pick only the best performing the comic books, but I did pick mainly mega-key superhero books.

 

Here is a write up of my analysis for those interested, hope you enjoy:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/605970-mark-diestler/2508951-looking-for-last-minute-gift-ideas-comic-books-make-a-great-gift-and-an-even-better-investment

Great job, and one of the best reports I have seen in a long time.

Going forward I have a hunch that the Silver Age keys will out perform the Golden Age keys. Marvel being with Disney now has added at least another 20 years for the characters to stay relevant and cutting edge. I would even expect low grade Silver Age keys to increase in value. IMHO

[StuporMan]

So I don't know this, but were those in fact the top 10 GA and SA comics in the overstreet guide for 1980?

My analysis looks at 14 GA and 12 SA, were they all the top in 1980? No. Are they are all the top in 2013? No. Some are the top, most are top 10 (BOTH for 1980 through today), but there are some that were not in the top 10 ever. For example, Crypt of Terror 17 is today only a $5300 book, for a GA book, nowhere near the charts.

 

To also put this into perspective, the DJIA now is not what it was in the early 80s either. The comic book market is much more stable as far as what it considers blue chip investments. Take a look at the companies in the DJIA in the early 80s:

 

Allied Chemical

Aluminum Company of America

American Can

American Express

ATT

American Tobacco

Bethlehem Steel

du Pont

Eastman Kodak

Exxon Corporation

General Electric

General Foods

General Motors

Goodyear

IBM

International Harvester

International Paper Company

Merck & Co., Inc.

Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing

Owens-Illinois Glass

Procter & Gamble

Sears Roebuck & Company

Standard Oil of California

Texaco Incorporated

Union Carbide

U.S. Steel

Westinghouse Electric

Woolworth

[Gatsby77]

That's cool:

 

So, here's the 1980 DJIA still on the list today (9/30).

 

American Express

AT&T

Dupont

Exxon

GE

IBM

Merck

3M

Procter & Gamble

 

That's not bad, considering that several sectors either didn't exist or have really taken off since (personal computing, investment banking, pharmaceuticals and dot coms).

 

Weirder for me is the companies that straight don't exist anymore (including Woolworth, and Kodak--which is technically still around but basically a bankrupt shell). American Can is now Citigroup, but still not represented in the DJIA.

[jimbo_707]

I do not think it is wise to tell people comics or any collectible are better investments than stock long term. Just my opinion.

 

The comics in my analysis have been a better investment over the past 30+ years - that's a fact. Doesn't mean it will continue and I would never tell people that comics are a better investment than stocks. I do state in the article NOT to cash out your 401k to buy comic books. I am just presenting some material for investment consideration, alternative investments. If you are looking to stock away some money and don't want to buy stocks or real estate and are looking to put your money somewhere, I am suggesting that certain comic books could be considered.

The only thing I'd point out is, with stocks you could do fairly well long term as long as you diversified across industries. With comics, you really had to pick the right books - superhorse mega-keys, which were not the only books people were singing the praises of when I first started collecting. The David McKay Feature Books used to be hot - I'd be curious to know how someone would have done investing in those.

[RedGiant]

I had a crack at this a few years ago as well. See this post and forward.

 

Haven't updated it for a while though.

Thanks for sharing, I think my next step in the process may be to look at 'Fine" values instead of top values. See how those numbers shake out. I had thought about doing that when I started this journey but for simplicity reasons just looked at top value (as they are listed in a chart at the start of each OSPG, so I didn't have to look up each book individually). If I look at 'Fine' values which may represent a more fair assessment(?) then it will take quite a bit more time as I will have to look up each book for each year.

 

Decided to look at 'Fine' pricing and the results are less than stellar. As where investing in the DJIA (and reinvesting dividends) netted $419,600 at the end of 2012 had you invested $10,000 at the beginning of 1980. For 'Fine' guide prices, $10,000 in the GA portfolio would have netted $338,700 and only $164,800 for the SA portfolio. Those numbers are still both better than DJIA investing if you had not reinvested dividends, as that would have only netted $156,236.

 

None of the SA books beat the market with fine pricing during this time. And there were only 5 out of 14 GA books that did. As where with top grade books (NM-) all 12 of the SA books outperformed the market and 10 out of the 14 GA books outperformed the market.

 

So my conclusions have been revised a bit, investing in highest grade holy grail (mainly) superhero books gives you the best shot at beating the stock market over time. But who has that kind of money just laying around that can be risked on comic book investing? Not me