AF 15 and the Restored Books Market

[ChasingKingKirby]

Although so Common

 

That's what gets me, it seems like the it's most plentiful Silver Age key, but it's far and away the highest priced book from that era by a huge margin.

yeah, the demand far outpaces the supply. It cracks me up whenever someone refers to AF15 as "rare"

 

I would definitely consider only 1300 blue labels for the whole world of the first appearance of one of the most popular super heroes of all time to be "rare". And you can figure 10-15% (or more?) of those are resubs. But just because something is rare does not mean it isn't available. AF 15's are readily available. But then again so are Batman 1's, even though there are less than 100 of those in a blue label. Further, the vast majority of those AF 15 slabs are low grade copies. Once you get above 5.5 the numbers for it are very small as well, and cost prohibitive for a lot of folks. This would explain why higher grade restored and lower grade blue label copies are seeing big price bumps.

 

-J.

 

 

What is the assumption on the slab vs raw population of AF15? My guesstimate is that there are thousands of copies that aren't slabbed.

 

I would say very few raws out there overall, and probably virtually none in higher grade (6.0+), as evidenced by the oodles and oodles of lower grade slabs on the census as it is. Everybody knows what this comic is, and people are even slabbing pieces of it now like they do some of those early Actions and Tecs.

 

-J.

 

Pretty sure there was a discussion about this not too long and I think the consensus was that there were 10 to 15K copies of AF15 that were probably floating around out in the world. That would mean less than 10% are slabbed.

 

Apart from the odd anecdote and urban legend you might hear, I find that highly dubious. Especially given the infrequency of newly slabbed copies that appear on the census. And again, even more so considering the percentage of AF 15's that are low grade on the census. If anything, the evidence would suggest that the bottom of the barrel is being scraped as far as raw AF 15's being discovered is concerned at this point. Moral of the story: Be happy if you are fortunate enough to have one in any grade, and don't hold your breath waiting for a massive influx of newly discovered copies to bring current prices down, if you're on the fence about buying one.

 

-J.

 

I'm not an expert on the AF15s market. I'm summarizing what Gator posted. (Who I would say IS an expert on the high end comic market...). I think there are plenty of copies out there, but even if there are 20000. I'm not sure that many copies would outstrip demand.

[Jaydogrules]

Although so Common

 

That's what gets me, it seems like the it's most plentiful Silver Age key, but it's far and away the highest priced book from that era by a huge margin.

yeah, the demand far outpaces the supply. It cracks me up whenever someone refers to AF15 as "rare"

 

I would definitely consider only 1300 blue labels for the whole world of the first appearance of one of the most popular super heroes of all time to be "rare". And you can figure 10-15% (or more?) of those are resubs. But just because something is rare does not mean it isn't available. AF 15's are readily available. But then again so are Batman 1's, even though there are less than 100 of those in a blue label. Further, the vast majority of those AF 15 slabs are low grade copies. Once you get above 5.5 the numbers for it are very small as well, and cost prohibitive for a lot of folks. This would explain why higher grade restored and lower grade blue label copies are seeing big price bumps.

 

-J.

 

 

What is the assumption on the slab vs raw population of AF15? My guesstimate is that there are thousands of copies that aren't slabbed.

 

I would say very few raws out there overall, and probably virtually none in higher grade (6.0+), as evidenced by the oodles and oodles of lower grade slabs on the census as it is. Everybody knows what this comic is, and people are even slabbing pieces of it now like they do some of those early Actions and Tecs.

 

-J.

 

Pretty sure there was a discussion about this not too long and I think the consensus was that there were 10 to 15K copies of AF15 that were probably floating around out in the world. That would mean less than 10% are slabbed.

 

Apart from the odd anecdote and urban legend you might hear, I find that highly dubious. Especially given the infrequency of newly slabbed copies that appear on the census. And again, even more so considering the percentage of AF 15's that are low grade on the census. If anything, the evidence would suggest that the bottom of the barrel is being scraped as far as raw AF 15's being discovered is concerned at this point. Moral of the story: Be happy if you are fortunate enough to have one in any grade, and don't hold your breath waiting for a massive influx of newly discovered copies to bring current prices down, if you're on the fence about buying one.

 

-J.

 

I'm not an expert on the AF15s market. I'm summarizing what Gator posted. (Who I would say IS an expert on the high end comic market...). I think there are plenty of copies out there, but even if there are 20000. I'm not sure that many copies would outstrip demand.

 

No question GAtor is the man, I bought a super key from him within a few weeks of joining the boards. A certain book that technically he wasn't even offering at the time and I almost had to beg him to sell me . But even he had to come on these boards to try and shake loose some AF 15's for sale, slabbed or raw, and saw how tight the supply is.

 

Again, I'm not saying there aren't any undiscovered AF 15's still out there. What I am saying is, judging by how the relatively small amounts hit the census every year, and how most of those are lower grade, I don't think we have tens of thousands still out there after nearly 15 years of CGC existence and FIVE highly lucrative movies shaking these things out of the rafters. My statement is based on an empirical analysis of the census, not anecdotes. Not even the anecdotes of my man GAtor. PS, Thanks again for that awesome AC 23 Rick! (thumbs u

 

-J.

[bronze johnny]

So the prevailing attitudes toward restored Silver Age books don't apply to AF 15? Can we expect to see the "AF 15 PLOD Exception" apply to other SA keys like Hulk and FF 1s as these books eventually follow Spidey into the stratosphere in terms of price?

[Jaydogrules]

So the prevailing attitudes toward restored Silver Age books don't apply to AF 15? Can we expect to see the "AF 15 PLOD Exception" apply to other SA keys like Hulk and FF 1s as these books eventually follow Spidey into the stratosphere in terms of price?

 

I'm still seeing restored AF 15s going at about 25% of blue label in the same grade which seems to be in line with just about anything restored in the silver age. The price increases in the restored segment are a direct result of the price increases in the blue label market. It is not a free standing phenomenon. I would imagine that it would always be better to buy a low grade blue than a higher grade purple. The market for restored comics in the silver age is very punishing, whether or not it is actually warranted. Most people would love to have an AF 15 restored or not. But if you're worried about more significant and consistent price appreciation and resale down the line then I would say buy a lower grade blue just to be on the safe side. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

 

[ChasingKingKirby]

Although so Common

 

That's what gets me, it seems like the it's most plentiful Silver Age key, but it's far and away the highest priced book from that era by a huge margin.

yeah, the demand far outpaces the supply. It cracks me up whenever someone refers to AF15 as "rare"

 

I would definitely consider only 1300 blue labels for the whole world of the first appearance of one of the most popular super heroes of all time to be "rare". And you can figure 10-15% (or more?) of those are resubs. But just because something is rare does not mean it isn't available. AF 15's are readily available. But then again so are Batman 1's, even though there are less than 100 of those in a blue label. Further, the vast majority of those AF 15 slabs are low grade copies. Once you get above 5.5 the numbers for it are very small as well, and cost prohibitive for a lot of folks. This would explain why higher grade restored and lower grade blue label copies are seeing big price bumps.

 

-J.

 

 

What is the assumption on the slab vs raw population of AF15? My guesstimate is that there are thousands of copies that aren't slabbed.

 

I would say very few raws out there overall, and probably virtually none in higher grade (6.0+), as evidenced by the oodles and oodles of lower grade slabs on the census as it is. Everybody knows what this comic is, and people are even slabbing pieces of it now like they do some of those early Actions and Tecs.

 

-J.

 

Pretty sure there was a discussion about this not too long and I think the consensus was that there were 10 to 15K copies of AF15 that were probably floating around out in the world. That would mean less than 10% are slabbed.

 

Apart from the odd anecdote and urban legend you might hear, I find that highly dubious. Especially given the infrequency of newly slabbed copies that appear on the census. And again, even more so considering the percentage of AF 15's that are low grade on the census. If anything, the evidence would suggest that the bottom of the barrel is being scraped as far as raw AF 15's being discovered is concerned at this point. Moral of the story: Be happy if you are fortunate enough to have one in any grade, and don't hold your breath waiting for a massive influx of newly discovered copies to bring current prices down, if you're on the fence about buying one.

 

-J.

 

I'm not an expert on the AF15s market. I'm summarizing what Gator posted. (Who I would say IS an expert on the high end comic market...). I think there are plenty of copies out there, but even if there are 20000. I'm not sure that many copies would outstrip demand.

 

No question GAtor is the man, I bought a super key from him within a few weeks of joining the boards. A certain book that technically he wasn't even offering at the time and I almost had to beg him to sell me . But even he had to come on these boards to try and shake loose some AF 15's for sale, slabbed or raw, and saw how tight the supply is.

 

Again, I'm not saying there aren't any undiscovered AF 15's still out there. What I am saying is, judging by how the relatively small amounts hit the census every year, and how most of those are lower grade, I don't think we have tens of thousands still out there after nearly 15 years of CGC existence and FIVE highly lucrative movies shaking these things out of the rafters. My statement is based on an empirical analysis of the census, not anecdotes. Not even the anecdotes of my man GAtor. PS, Thanks again for that awesome AC 23 Rick! (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

I HOPE you're right, but my gut says you're not. For every slabbed AF15 I see at cons, I see 5 raw ones. This is especially true for low grade ones. No way to know, but my money is still on there being at least 10 to 15,000 raw copies in the wild. At the bare minimum...

[Jaydogrules]

That's interesting at last year's SDCC I saw very few copies available, slabbed or otherwise. Very few hulk 1's too. Tons of x men 1s though. But even if there were "15,000" raw copies out there (no way, fuggetaboutit ), but even if there were, at the rate they show up on the census, it would take over 160 years for them to all be graded, and verified unrestored (yeah, that wouldn't happen either). So I think it's safe to say the AF 15 market is on solid ground for at least say, the next 50 years.

 

-J.

[ChasingKingKirby]

That's interesting at last year's SDCC I saw very few copies available, slabbed or otherwise. Very few hulk 1's too. Tons of x men 1s though. But even if there were "15,000" raw copies out there (no way, fuggetaboutit ), but even if there were, at the rate they show up on the census, it would take over 160 years for them to all be graded, and verified unrestored (yeah, that wouldn't happen either). So I think it's safe to say the AF 15 market is on solid ground for at least say, the next 50 years.

 

-J.

 

Oh, I think AF15 is on firm ground for our lifetime. Maybe some small dips but a more or less constant price climb. I just think the demand is incredibly high and will remain so. It's one of those books that defy logic, like Hulk 181. If Hulk 181 prices haven't collapsed with 6K+ copies on census and two crappy movies, then no chance AF15 does.

[Jaydogrules]

I would say you're absolutely right. Very few people will ever own an action 1 or a tec 27 but an AF 15 is still attainable for enough people that I doubt demand can ever be sated, particularly in the lower grades, regardless of how many pop up over the next several decades.

 

-J.

[kimik]

No question GAtor is the man, I bought a super key from him within a few weeks of joining the boards. A certain book that technically he wasn't even offering at the time and I almost had to beg him to sell me . But even he had to come on these boards to try and shake loose some AF 15's for sale, slabbed or raw, and saw how tight the supply is.

 

Again, I'm not saying there aren't any undiscovered AF 15's still out there. What I am saying is, judging by how the relatively small amounts hit the census every year, and how most of those are lower grade, I don't think we have tens of thousands still out there after nearly 15 years of CGC existence and FIVE highly lucrative movies shaking these things out of the rafters. My statement is based on an empirical analysis of the census, not anecdotes. Not even the anecdotes of my man GAtor. PS, Thanks again for that awesome AC 23 Rick! (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

I had a friend pick up an AF #15 in 3.5/4.0 at a garage sale a year ago.

 

Most of the copies I am aware of locally are raw. CGC is not as pervasive as we think in the hobby - there are a ton of former collectors out there that were actively collecting through the 70s, 80s and into the early 90s that amassed nice collections, some with multiple copies of keys and early SA books, but stopped collecting prior to or after the early 90s peak. I picked up two of these last year (one was DC centric so no AF #15, and the other one sold his AF #15, ASM #1, JIM #83 and TOS #39 to friends a couple of months earlier that needed them so all I landed were the Avengers #1 and X-Men #1) and was outbid on round one of another collection with multiple copies of the SA Marvel keys - he was unloading his undercopy runs first and most were complete to the early 90s.