Black Cat Mystery Comics #50 CGC 9.4

[Bonds25]

What is everyone's opinion on this book?

 

Ebay auction of Black Cat #50

 

It guides for $900 in NM 9.2, so $2300 seems like a fair price for a 9.4. I am REALLY tempted to buy this but a few things are giving me pause. First is the CR/OW pages, and second is the high census numbers. 11 copies have been graded and there are 2 in 9.6, 2 in 9.4 and 2 in 9.2.

 

What should I do??

[shrunkenhead]

Buy it! It's a blue chip book. Even with a dozen copies slabbed in high grade, there will always be demand for this book.

 

And when you don't want it anymore you can always sell it to me...for half price

[shrunkenhead]

Seriously though, I would check first that the seller is legit. He doesn't have a track record for spendy comics, at least not according to his feedback rating. Look into it before plunking the 2k...

[shiverbones]

Hey Matt, the CROW is most likely the same reason as the number of High grades. Almost all of the harvey warehouse copies had tanned edges from storage, but were beautiful otherwise. This book appears to be one of the warehouse copies, as the others most likely are that grade that high. Trying to find a 9.4 with OW pages would mean finding a copy of a black covered low paper quality horror comic that someone happened to save in NM shape, which is a serious longshot. I think the copy is right, but the price is another situation. It is a classic, perhaps THE classic cover of pre code horror, but that is not a bargain price. I think the fact that someone has not dropped a bid to stop the BIN is telling. I see it more as an $1800 book, but it really all depends on how much extra cash you have. If you can do it, and want the copy then go for it!

[sfilosa]

He just relisted it, and no one bid at $2,395.

 

WAY TOO MANY COPIES.

 

For all we know, there are 50 Harvey File Copies of this book and if that's the case most would be in the 9.0 to 9.6 range (probably most with Cr/OW pages).

 

The one thing you always have to remember about GA books, is a lot of long time collectors have no desire to slab or sell their books. Unlike Silver-Age Marvel's where the two BIGGEST collectors will not only slab most of their books, but will resubmit for higher grades. In other words, the LABEL matters to them.

[shrunkenhead]

Yes, most GA collectors have no interest in slabbing and selling, which equates to scarce supply, regardless of how many copies actually exist in a given grade.

 

I still think the reason this one is not selling has far less to do with the asking price than the it does with the suspicious credentials of the seller. The fact that he proudly touts this book as the copy in the CGC gallery gives me pause...who's to say he didn't lift the scan?

 

If this book was at Heritage, it would sell for the asking price. Comiclink would likely sell it, too, even though it mostly caters to the SA gang.

[*paull*]

As I've said before, spending big money on Harveys is not something that I see myself doing. Who knows how many are out there? Now if we were talking about a very rare comic, I'd see what the fuss was over, but in this case, I just don't think it's warranted. This is a Gerber 4 after all. In comparison, Weird Mysteries 5 and Mystery Mystery 12 are both Gerber 6.

 

By the way, I saw a 9.2 of BCM #50 in a dealer's stock recently for a similar price.

[shrunkenhead]

There are only three Harveys that I feel warrant multiples of guide, and this would be one of them. This is one of the few covers that has appeal even to those who don't "specialize" in pre-code horror. Although the cream to off white pages are slightly off-putting, it is a structural NM. Good stuff IMO. I'd be proud to own it.

[*paull*]

I agree that those few books should definitely go for over guide, but I won't pay crazy prices for one.

[Bonds25]

Thanks for the replies guys. I think I'll hold off buying it, but might have to hit the BIN if he ever relists it for $2,000.

[sfilosa]

The question is:

 

Are you buying the book mostly because you want it or because you want to FLIP it (eventually)?

[Bonds25]

The question is:

 

Are you buying the book mostly because you want it or because you want to FLIP it (eventually)?

 

I really love high grade horror and it's one of my favorite covers, but I always look at future resale value too. I don't want to pay $2,000 if I'm gone take a 25% loss if I decide to sell in the future.

[sfilosa]

All I can say is that most GA books haven't seen much movement in resale value in a few years. That's not where the "investment" action is.

 

That's not to say you shouldn't buy a book you want. But I know you bid on a lot of Silver-Age books I do, and that's where the action is (assuming you can get something below market value which has been very easy the past month).

[*paull*]

I understand what you are saying, but couldn't an opposite argument be made... that Silver Age is on a run right now and is due to level off or dip, while GA books have remained level for some time and are due for an increase?

[rjpb]

I think "investment" money is always going to be interested in HG copies of books that have broad appeal, regardless of era. Whether or not these are still "good" investments is another story. The bulk of low to mid grade GA books are probably sold to collectors who worry less about return than just aquiring books they want. Interest may ebb and flow regarding different genres and titles, and individual books might gain "classic" status, but I wouldn't expect a sudden rise in the general value of low-mid grade GA anytime soon.

 

I think the horror boom was mostly due to the Gerber guides driving the recognition of what was truely desirable in pre-code horror - not first issues, but classic covers - many of which were grossly undervalued. I think alot of dealers took this to mean that horror in general was hot, and they started raising prices on everything. Compared to superhero books from the same era - they were still cheap, and many collectors, not having too many sources outside of dealers, paid the higher prices - until Ebay came along. If Ebay has done anything, it has taken the supply-demand equation out of the hands of dealers. It may have made it harder to find those "bargain-at-guide" deals that you might luck into buying from a dealer who was unaware of a given book's true value, but it's also made lots of books more affordable when they routinely sell at 25-50% of guide.

[sfilosa]

understand what you are saying, but couldn't an opposite argument be made... that Silver Age is on a run right now and is due to level off or dip, while GA books have remained level for some time and are due for an increase?

 

I really don't see GA taking off ever again. I'm not saying that the values won't go up over time, but the "hot" money will never go there again.

 

Points:

1) The Gerber Guides got people excited (especially Pre-Code Horror Collectors) about GA. That was fifteen years ago and those who wanted to get "excited" did, and those that didn't, didn't. Just don't see a whole "HUGE" new group getting that excited about GA.

 

2) As anyone that is following CGC sales knows, the action has progressively gotten to the new books. Early on some GA was hot, Silver-Age is still pretty hot but the majority of the boom in prices over the past few years is in Bronze-Age books. I see this trend continuing (maybe to early 80's books, a la copper).

 

3) Look at the dealers / consignment websites that are constantly updated because of sales and new inventory. They sell almost all SA and newer books.

 

4) Remember that CGC has bought liquidity to buying/selling comic books. To have liquidity, there must be at least an ample supply. There is NOT an ample supply of quality GA books, so the "action" will not go there.

 

I really don't see GA ever catching the attention of large amounts of buyers and therefore seriously doubt that we will see huge price movement in the future.

[*paull*]

Good points by both of you. Personally, I just can't believe the prices that are being achieved by Silver and Bronze books, particularly the latter. I think it's fool's gold, and both markets are going to peak sometime soon. I expect a big sell-off which leads to too much supply.

 

I find the majority of Bronze age books to be complete junk... I can't imagine that someone is paying big money for high-grade issues of Marvel Team-Up and Captain America and Falcon.

 

Regarding GA, the Gerber guides definitely had a huge impact on pre-code horror and L.B. Cole cover keys. I agree completely that filler pre-code horror issues are way, way overpriced not only in guide but by dealers in general. The only pre-code horror books that I buy that could be considered "non-key" would be the Farrell horror series (Haunted Thrills, Voodoo, Fantastic Fears, etc.) even though there are some keys and classic covers mixed in there. Everything else I buy is considered a classic cover. Random issues of Fawcett, Atlas and ACG horror books interest me not at all, even if they are horror books. They could be $4 per issue and I still wouldn't buy. These books are some of the most over-priced in guide.

[sfilosa]

Hence one of my biggest complaints of the Overstreet Guide.

 

How do they determine the price of GA books that sell so infrequently? I've bought slabbed GA books in high-grade for 30-40% off of guide.

 

The other pet peeve is that issues will be broken out of a run, because it has a different artist, who hasn't really been a hot collectible artist for twenty years. Yet, as most of us know, it's the COVER that makes it interesting. But the better covers aren't broken out at all.

 

If you look at most peoples "UNDERVALUED" GA issues, it's ALL about the COVER.

[*paull*]

I don't buy superhero GA books, but I can speak for horror books, and they are almost universally WAY too high in guide. Only the classic covers sell for guide or more.

 

If this is the case with pre-code horror, I can only imagine what it's like for western and romance books. Dealers must sit on these forever.

[rjpb]

Even though romance was the most popular genre for a couple years in the early 50s - there doesn't seem to be alot of it around today relative to other genres - sure most of it still has little interest, but it always seems to sell no matter how low the condition - if priced right. Baker & Ward books, especially covers, and Fox books in general seem to sell for close to guide or higher. Company and era completists always seem have the hardest time filling holes in their romance runs.