Your guestimates on how many of these are around.

[shadroch]

Would anyone care to share their thoughts on how many copies of a pre-1965 Marvel comic might be out there in midgrade(4.5-7.0)I've been tracking JIM 109 for awhile now and the supply seems almost endless.Six months ago I'd have said less than or around 5,000 copies still existed,but now I think that number is too low.10,000 or more seems quite possible but then you run up against the fact that that would mean almost 10% of the books still exist 40 years after they were published.

Hoarding of books seems to have really taken off in 1968,but the supply from before'65 seems to almost outweigh the demand.Thoughts,comments?

 

Noel

[fantastic_four]

the supply from before'65 seems to almost outweigh the demand.Thoughts,comments?

 

I agree. I can't remember when Marvel started printing the yearly distribution averages in their comics that Krause's Standard Catalog of Comics has compiled, but it was right around the mid-60s. I think Stan Lee has said that the distribution totals changed a lot for Marvel from 1961 to 1965 as their titles got more and more popular, with the big jump coming when Spidey #1 was released, so it depends on what year you're talking about, but I think the range is somewhere between 200,000 and 500,000 copies per issue with 1961 and 1962 issues possibly being lower.

 

I'm no distributor, but I've heard they used to get half of the copies printed returned to them, so you would cut the total print run at least in half to get the total number that went out into circulation. If you further try to guess how many have been destroyed over the years, which I've never heard ANY way to even semi-accurately gauge, we might just assume that 80% of them got thrown away at some point and that only 20% survived in some shape. Assuming that, then (200,000 / 2) * 0.20 = 20,000 as a minimum and (500,000 / 2) * 0.20 = 50,000 as a maximum.

 

I'd say the counts on any given issue are somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000. Your estimate of 5,000 seems too low to me also, although it could be accurate for the earliest Marvels such as FF 1 to 10, JiM 83 to 90, and Hulk 1 to 6 before Marvel caught fire.

[blowout]

There are probably way more than 10,000 copies.

[fantastic_four]

Just checked the Standard Catalog, and it looks like Marvel started publishing distribution numbers in most of their magazines in 1966. Here are some of the average number of issues distributed per issue for that year:

 

• Spidey 32 to 43 = 340,155 copies
• FF 46 to 57 = 329,379 copies
• Daredevil 24 to 35 = 275,361 copies
• Avengers 24 to 35 = 269,994 copies
• X-Men 16 to 27 = 255,070 copies

I don't know why this is yet, but the Standard Catalog lists circulation figures for Journey Into Mystery further back than the other titles, all the way back to 1962. Is this a barometer for the distribution increases for the other pre-1965 Marvel titles? Quite possibly...here are the JiM totals:

• Journey Into Mystery 76 to 87 = 132,113 copies
• Journey Into Mystery 88 to 99 = 187,895 copies
• Journey Into Mystery 100 to 111 = 205,075 copies
• Journey Into Mystery 112 to 123 = 232,644 copies
• Journey Into Mystery 124, 125 and Thor 126 to 135 = 296,251 copies. This is for 1966, the same year as the other titles listed above, so we could project backwards for the other titles starting with this year to get a rough idea of what the total circulation for those titles might have been...

[JohnBull]

There are probably way more than 10,000 copies.

 

I've got a dollar that says you're wrong.

[markseifert]

Six months ago I'd have said less than or around 5,000 copies still existed,but now I think that number is too low.10,000 or more seems quite possible

Noel

 

Interesting post. Could you tell us more about how you came up with your number? Have you been trying to count up distinct copies for sale over a given period and made a guestimate based on that?

[blowout]

 

Interesting post. Could you tell us more about how you came up with your number?

 

Pure speculation.

[shadroch]

 

Interesting post. Could you tell us more about how you came up with your number?

 

Pure speculation.

 

 

Used the extrapulation methods I learned at a former job,talked to multiple dealers and collectors,tracked copys offered on various auction sites, read the entrails of various specimens of roadkill,and a wee bit of speculation.

[FlyingDonut]

There are probably way more than 10,000 copies.

 

Will there be 320% more, or 640% more? Both of those are not "way more", apparently.

[markseifert]

 

Interesting post. Could you tell us more about how you came up with your number?

 

Pure speculation.

 

 

Used the extrapulation methods I learned at a former job,talked to multiple dealers and collectors,tracked copys offered on various auction sites, read the entrails of various specimens of roadkill,and a wee bit of speculation.

 

Roughly how many copies do you think are available for sale (market-wide) at any given time? And to clarify, are you talking midgrade copies or total number of copies regardless of grade?

[shadroch]

I tried tracking books that were either described as VG or better,or appeared to be when viewing the scans.While many were severely overpriced,had price been no object i could have bought in the high three figure range over a matter of a half a year.I spoke to a dealer who offered me several hundred that he'd had in his inventory for years. Several mid-level dealers had a dozen or so.Almost every dealer I contacted had multiple copies,or could easily get them for me.I don't want to go too deep into the details as it may be used in an upcoming article.Lets just say it was an eye-opening experiance.Fifteen years ago,this book was considered kind of hard to find and in dmand. What was a real sellers market on that book has completely reversed itself.

[markseifert]

I spoke to a dealer who offered me several hundred that he'd had in his inventory for years. Several mid-level dealers had a dozen or so.

 

Wow. It doesn't surprise me that there are several dealers around with a dozen or so, but that somebody has hundreds is incredible. Hope you do your article, interesting stuff!

 

It's been many, many years since I've hit the convention scene, but 10-15 years ago there used to be a guy who'd be at Chicago con who bought practically every Avengers #4 he could lay his hands on if it was a reasonably good deal. I remember talking to one dealer who said he sold him 12-15 or so copies over the years, and speculation back then was that he might have hundreds in his possession even then. He seemed to be pretty well known for it, maybe somebody here remembers who I'm talking about.

[Silver Surfer]

There are probably way more than 10,000 copies.

 

Will there be 320% more, or 640% more? Both of those are not "way more", apparently.

 

Beat me to it.

[the blob]

I don't think there are really more of 109 than any of the others from that period. perhaps it may have sold better and was kept more than some of the other more generic JIM issues due to the cross over, but the same would be true for 112 (hulk cross over).

 

i'm certainly no expert, but there was a time in the mid and late 90s when I focused on JIM more than many other SA titles, and I can honestly say I wouldn't see 109 around as often as some of the other issues -- but that could be because it was in more "permanent" collections due to the x-men connection and its appeal to a broader audience than just kirby/thor fans. I have 3, maybe 4, copies of several of those other issues in the early 100s, whereas I only have 2 copies of 109, a reader and one in VF or thereabouts.

 

I understand you've done some sort of analysis, but a look at ebay auctions up right now doesn't make it seem like the book is really more plentiful than the others near it in the run.

 

As for your dealer who claims 100 copies... maybe he liked the book and thought it was a good bet? Heck, it was probably a $2-3 book in the early 80s when the X-Men were hot, had I been thinking long-term and had the money, I may have hoarded. He didn't say he's had them since the 60's, did he? (I find it puzzling that a dealer would describe something like that as a book that he's had sitting around.. why degrade material that you may be trying to sell for a couple grand?) As for dealers who can muster 10 pretty easily...if I have 2-4 of each of these JIMs, I don't find it too shocking that a dealer would have more.

 

I'm not a dealer or anything, but I have 6 copies of FF 48 (in "G" to F/VF, nothing exciting) and only 2 copies of 49. Does that mean there are 3X more copies of 48 than 49?

 

People were speculating way back when, but I just don't see why they would have speculated more on 109 than 110, 111 or 112. if they were buying 100 copies of each book to hold long-term they'd be doing it each month.

[blowout]

People were speculating way back when, but I just don't see why they would have speculated more on 109 than 110, 111 or 112. if they were buying 100 copies of each book to hold long-term they'd be doing it each month.

 

It would have been speculated on for exactly the reasons you suggeted in your own post. The book has more cross-over appeal than the surrounding issues because of the Magneto/ X-Men conection.

[the blob]

yes, but did they really have the same sort of advance notice to speculate like they do now? and newstands weren't ordering an extra 100 copies because they thought magneto was cool. and anyway, x-men was marvel's least popular title and magneto wasn't such a big deal then. people who were buying to hoard were doing so for 109, 109, 100, etc. and why wouldn't the same be true for 112? i just don't buy that the particular issue is relatively common. if anything, my experience is that i've seen the other issues more in going through thousands of long and short boxes at shows over the years, although, as stated, that could just be because 109 is in more permanent collections and people care less about the third appearance of the cobra and mr. hyde or whatever (a book i've seen a lot of)

 

if somehow orders got bumped up 10% because of the cross-over, i don't see how we're going to notice it 40 years later.

 

now, the #1 issues in 1968 are another story.

 

when the few collectors out there were hoarding back in 1965, how did they do it? did they have their newstand order extra copies for them? were they buying enough to get books directly from the distributor?

[shadroch]

I didn't mean to imply that JIM 109 was either scarcer nor more popular originally than the issues around it. I just picked that book as an example because I believe ,at this moment,it is more desireable than the issues around it. I'm fairly sure it sold in similar numbers(Magneto might have given it a small bump),but for several years now the demand for 109 has been higher for 108 or 110.Though not as great as the demand for 112,where the supply does seem to be less than the demand.

My point was that JIM 109 is a fairly early Marvel with crossover appeal to X-Men fans,yet the supply seems near endless.

[the blob]

"My point was that JIM 109 is a fairly early Marvel with crossover appeal to X-Men fans,yet the supply seems near endless."

 

ok, fair enough. my impression from your original post is that you thought maybe there were twice as many of these out there as the other issues (estimate of "5,000" being raised to "10,000") and that it was hoarded in disproportionate numbers compared to 108, 110.

 

with that said, i think you can say the same about most post-65 marvels. the books sells for $20-30 or whatever in mid-grade not because it's "rare" per se, but because people want it, it's a cool cross-over, kirby, magneto, "journey into mystery" itself has some appeal (the early issues, i forget when they stopped, still had some sci fi back-up stories, right?)

 

How many silver age marvel collectors are out there? Not the casual collector with 50 books, but people who have been at this a while. What is Comic Book Market Place's circulation? What was it 10 years ago? You don't buy that magazine unless you collect the old stuff. We're talking thousands, if not tens of thousands, of collections out there. One has to think the book is going to be in at least 20% of the collections. Some people may have multiples.

 

seriously, how many NM copies of Wolverine 1, ASM 300, etc. are out there? They sell for more than this book does in F/VF.

[shadroch]

 

I love and collect older stuff but gave up on Comic book marketplace quite awhile ago.Alter Ego and Back Issue magazine are much more relevant to me.

[Norrin_Radd]