Various Killing Joke page prices...

[Nexus]

All good points, but regarding this:

 

I would certainly feel safer with 1 100K Killing Joke page than 100K in Walking Dead art.

 

Strictly from a gambling standpoint, I'd take the WD art. Not $100K worth of random pieces, but $100K worth of key pages/covers.

 

In the past year, $100K could have bought the #19 cover (first Michonne), two key pages from that same issue, the #1 splash, a gory prison storyline page or two...and there would have still been PLENTY left over to spend however you wanted. Enough to buy four more recent covers (at least), if you have to spend the entire $100K.

 

Or you could have bought the KJ page with Barbara Gordon getting shot in the gut.

 

I'm not sure how much higher KJ prices can go (outside of one specific page); I guess we'll see. I'm not sure about WD, either, but at least there may be a nostalgia boost down the line. Again, we'll see.

 

Having said all that, I'd rather have a KJ page for my own collection than WD art. Just not that Barbara Gordon page.

[delekkerste]

All good points, but regarding this:

 

I would certainly feel safer with 1 100K Killing Joke page than 100K in Walking Dead art.

 

Strictly from a gambling standpoint, I'd take the WD art. Not $100K worth of random pieces, but $100K worth of key pages/covers.

 

In the past year, $100K could have bought the #19 cover (first Michonne), two key pages from that same issue, the #1 splash, a gory prison storyline page or two...and there would have still been PLENTY left over to spend however you wanted. Enough to buy four more recent covers (at least), if you have to spend the entire $100K.

 

Or you could have bought the KJ page with Barbara Gordon getting shot in the gut.

 

I'm not sure how much higher KJ prices can go (outside of one specific page); I guess we'll see. I'm not sure about WD, either, but at least there may be a nostalgia boost down the line. Again, we'll see.

 

Having said all that, I'd rather have a KJ page for my own collection than WD art. Just not that Barbara Gordon page.

 

+1

 

Apples-to-apples (in terms of quality), isn't KJ already the most expensive interior art of the entire '80s? Heck, maybe of the past 30-35 years? My guess is that $100K of WD art has more potential upside (and more potential downside), as KJ is already well-established as the pinnacle of Bolland's art which, combined with the Moore factor, Oracle/Joker tie-ins and scarce supply is reflected in prices which are already disproportionately high to their historical importance vis-a-vis, say, DKR and Watchmen.

[vodou]

Mmm. I think a big difference is nobody gave two hoots about $5 70s pages in 1980. Or $15 pages in 1984 (to keep it to 30 yrs specifically). It was all about whatever Russ Cochran was auctioning, what Mitch was carrying on about (yes, even back then!), all the great Golden Age pages from Sprang and the other folks getting up in age. The really really big moves percentage-wise over 30 years were in those $5 and $15 pages. Not Tarzan Sundays, Frazetta Ace McCoy (or even the big paintings for that matter), not Wrightson Frankenstein. Those were the stretches. Then and now. All you gotta do is look up the Sandy-whatshisname sell list from back then to see what some pretty special Wrightson was going for. Some at the 1000-2000 level. Corben, Adams, always hot. EC...hot (relatively so). Then and now. And they're all still a stretch, but actually more 'affordable' now then they were back then! Buying those, you could live with some nice art for 30 years and make a nice return too. But buying heaps and heaps of $5 Buscema Conan pages, whether Chan inked 'em or not...that's your retirement plan that beats stocks and everything else. That was the everyman's comic OA from the 80s. But god forbid you went all-in on Squadron Supreme mini art or the endless other things that were available then...no such luck. Buscema pulled ahead (after a very long slumber that is). It always looks so much easier in hindsight.

 

So what's the unturned stone in comic OA in 2014? What's the $5 equivalent now that will stand the test of time and then some? To be fair, it may not be anything in comic art, at least not to the same extent of incredible ROI. That's your point Gene, and one I agree with.

[Jesusjon]

All good points, but regarding this:

 

I would certainly feel safer with 1 100K Killing Joke page than 100K in Walking Dead art.

 

Strictly from a gambling standpoint, I'd take the WD art. Not $100K worth of random pieces, but $100K worth of key pages/covers.

 

In the past year, $100K could have bought the #19 cover (first Michonne), two key pages from that same issue, the #1 splash, a gory prison storyline page or two...and there would have still been PLENTY left over to spend however you wanted. Enough to buy four more recent covers (at least), if you have to spend the entire $100K.

 

Or you could have bought the KJ page with Barbara Gordon getting shot in the gut.

 

I'm not sure how much higher KJ prices can go (outside of one specific page); I guess we'll see. I'm not sure about WD, either, but at least there may be a nostalgia boost down the line. Again, we'll see.

 

Having said all that, I'd rather have a KJ page for my own collection than WD art. Just not that Barbara Gordon page.

 

+1

 

Apples-to-apples (in terms of quality), isn't KJ already the most expensive interior art of the entire '80s? Heck, maybe of the past 30-35 years? My guess is that $100K of WD art has more potential upside (and more potential downside), as KJ is already well-established as the pinnacle of Bolland's art which, combined with the Moore factor, Oracle/Joker tie-ins and scarce supply is reflected in prices which are already disproportionately high to their historical importance vis-a-vis, say, DKR and Watchmen.

 

I'm approaching this more from a TV/pop culture perspective. Like many shows, my assumption is that Walking Dead eventually suffers ratings declines and cancellation. Even if they go out on a high note, years later people forget, and there is a LOT of art out there. KJ has a very limited supply of pages and the story is already told. It is a quick read with no previous knowledge of continuity required. Easy access.

 

Sure, WD is a better bet if you have 10 key pieces. I was thinking of 50 2K pages, though I should have said that.

[delekkerste]

So what's the unturned stone in comic OA in 2014? What's the $5 equivalent now that will stand the test of time and then some? To be fair, it may not be anything in comic art, at least not to the same extent of incredible ROI. That's your point Gene, and one I agree with.

 

As someone who's constantly speculating on the future course of everything (as reflected in the prices of everything), I'm constantly trying to think of what the next big thing is. On a macro basis, the problem is that we are now 6 years deep into a near-zero interest rate environment which has seen cash flee from bank accounts into assets of every kind, whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, art, collectibles, etc. (even gold and silver, though they have been in a brutal bear market over the past 3 years, are still substantially higher than they were in the fall of 2008). There's really not much truly cheap (i.e., where outsized returns can be made for years) out there considering we've had nearly 6 years of this upward repricing - you either have to (a) find a market that's totally undeveloped and untapped, (b) bet big on a decline and catch the turn (almost no one will be able to do this), or else © wait for prices to correct to the downside and buy big at lower levels if you want to make truly outsized returns over the long run; I suspect © will be by far the easiest to do than (a) or (b) for most people. Not that you can't/haven't been able to make money in stocks, real estate, OA, etc. over the past few years and maybe for some time to come as well, but, if/when interest rates ever normalize,the repricing will occur in the opposite direction.

[DocR]

So what's the unturned stone in comic OA in 2014? What's the $5 equivalent now that will stand the test of time and then some? To be fair, it may not be anything in comic art, at least not to the same extent of incredible ROI. That's your point Gene, and one I agree with.

 

As far as unturned stones in modern OA. First off nothing today is priced as low relatively as some of the stuff back then. Run of the mill marvel/dc modern pages from middle of the road artists are 100-200 and it usually is all available. And the good stuff is already priced pretty high with the current big names already getting big money for their stuff. I certainly think the big names are a better bet to hold value but in no way would I expect 70s-80s ROI.

 

The best ROI will probably come from an obscure indy book or artist that breaks big into tv or Hollywood and becomes a comics/Hollywood amalgam along the lines of Frank Miller over the last 20 years. Finding this type of art ahead of the curve is the hard part. Think walking dead when it (the comic) first came out.

[delekkerste]

Good point. The hobby is simply at a (much) more advanced stage of development now than it was 20 years ago. It's really tough to make any kind of meaningful comparison with that era; it wasn't just the pre-Internet Age, it was practically the Stone Age given the lack of development and organization in the marketplace back then compared to what we have now (hearing some of the old stories about faxes and photocopied and carbon papered mailing lists going around, people getting FedEx'ed copies of CBG to get a jump on the classifieds...oh the horror, the horror ). When I think of a world without eBay, the dealer websites, Heritage, Comiclink, CAF...

[Solar]

So what's the unturned stone in comic OA in 2014? What's the $5 equivalent now that will stand the test of time and then some?

 

Something key from the books regarded as classics in 2034.

 

 

[Jesusjon]

There are also missing opportunities because of the shift to digital. You guys know I love BKV and there's a good chance he sticks around Hollywood doing more and more but the last two books he has worked on have no OA to speak of...

 

Some of those "little indie books" that break big will have no OA attached, which btw is another question about the future of the hobby. If few people are reading comics, and few people are entering the OA world, where does growth come from?

[vodou]

...it was practically the Stone Age given the lack of development and organization in the marketplace back then compared to what we have now (hearing some of the old stories about faxes and photocopied and carbon papered mailing lists going around, people getting FedEx'ed copies of CBG to get a jump on the classifieds...oh the horror, the horror ). When I think of a world without eBay, the dealer websites, Heritage, Comiclink, CAF...

There was the lack of liquidity too. I remember knowing how to sell comics, easy, but how to sell art? Ugh. I stayed away a lot longer than I would have otherwise, and when I did get in spent a lot less for a long time because I didn't know who I'd sell to (aside from dealers...nooooooooo, never!) and how to measure comps. It was all make it up as you go along (more or less). Imagine the nerve it took to buy anything that cost more than $100-300 in the 80s and more than $500-1000 in the 90s. (Talking non-SA here!) You just had to love it. It was simply sunk money. End of story. There was no assumption of greater fools to come!

[vodou]

Some of those "little indie books" that break big will have no OA attached, which btw is another question about the future of the hobby. If few people are reading comics, and few people are entering the OA world, where does growth come from?

The question is will comic OA transcend the end of new entry-level physical art? People like to talk as if they know, but nobody knows what happens here. I think we all agree that higher prices requires a growing collector base. Want new blood? I think you have to have something for them to get Day 1 for (relatively) cheap, something accessible they're reading this month. How high, too high?, is the barrier for entry if all that's available is a fixed supply (slowly dwindling even, through natural attrition) owned by people with solid memories of what they paid (too much) and a lack of 'need' to sell (assuming regular income or other retirement assets)? Sure they can get sketches, but I don't know how the casual $50 (today's dollars) sketch collector matures into the $500 panel page buyer when there's no middle ground, when $500 is the lowest priced pieces out there (someday in the future of course). Trying not to load the argument here, but if I am, try to ignore specifics and just open your mind to the problem...

 

When you started looking around to collect 'some' (ha!) comic art, what would your reaction have been if there were endless lazy-looking $10 sketches and...$150 panel pages up to $10k covers, but nothing in between $10 and $150? That's how it was when I started...except there were a lot, A LOT, of $25-$50 pages...like everywhere. New stuff, and plenty of old second-tier stuff. I was tripping over it. And that's how I got sucked in. One pro $25 page was easily, EASILY, 'worth' more than 2.5 sketches. Every day of the week. See??

 

Otherwise, if you see the above as a big problem like I do, then comic OA needs to transcend..become more than a collectible, it needs the museums and whatever to make it okay for mature investors to walk into it like they do with fine art, without having to grow into it with smaller geek purchases from what they're reading this month.

[DocR]

Some of those "little indie books" that break big will have no OA attached, which btw is another question about the future of the hobby. If few people are reading comics, and few people are entering the OA world, where does growth come from?

The question is will comic OA transcend the end of new entry-level physical art? People like to talk as if they know, but nobody knows what happens here. I think we all agree that higher prices requires a growing collector base. Want new blood? I think you have to have something for them to get Day 1 for (relatively) cheap, something accessible they're reading this month. How high, too high?, is the barrier for entry if all that's available is a fixed supply (slowly dwindling even, through natural attrition) owned by people with solid memories of what they paid (too much) and a lack of 'need' to sell (assuming regular income or other retirement assets)? Sure they can get sketches, but I don't know how the casual $50 (today's dollars) sketch collector matures into the $500 panel page buyer when there's no middle ground, when $500 is the lowest priced pieces out there (someday in the future of course). Trying not to load the argument here, but if I am, try to ignore specifics and just open your mind to the problem...

 

When you started looking around to collect 'some' (ha!) comic art, what would your reaction have been if there were endless lazy-looking $10 sketches and...$150 panel pages up to $10k covers, but nothing in between $10 and $150? That's how it was when I started...except there were a lot, A LOT, of $25-$50 pages...like everywhere. New stuff, and plenty of old second-tier stuff. I was tripping over it. And that's how I got sucked in. One pro $25 page was easily, EASILY, 'worth' more than 2.5 sketches. Every day of the week. See??

 

Otherwise, if you see the above as a big problem like I do, then comic OA needs to transcend..become more than a collectible, it needs the museums and whatever to make it okay for mature investors to walk into it like they do with fine art, without having to grow into it with smaller geek purchases from what they're reading this month.

 

I really believe in markets. I do believe this will all sort itself out. At some point the art will be sold by people or estates that don't care what was paid for it. They just want the money. This will either lead to a decrease in prices if no (or less of a) future market develops or result in a mature market for vintage items by people that have no nostalgia associated with them. I think Gene's points actually have a larger bearing on the results here then the constant worry of the ageing of the collector base. Stamps, numismatics, vintage baseball and historical memorabilia, vintage guns, cars, etc. All currently at highs. I believe it has more to do with macroeconomics than anything else.

 

As far as future nostalgic collectors, popularity of the characters. If 0.001% of kids/teenagers who watch the marvel movies end up getting into comic art, that is still 100s of people. All it takes is 10-20 big money people to keep prices healthy. I would also say the chances of Disney letting any of these characters fade in popularity is about as non-existent odds as you can have. Turn on television on a weekend morning, they have a cartoon for everyone at this point.

[vodou]

I really believe in markets. I do believe this will all sort itself out. At some point the art will be sold by people or estates that don't care what was paid for it. They just want the money. This will either lead to a decrease in prices if no (or less of a) future market develops or result in a mature market for vintage items by people that have no nostalgia associated with them. I think Gene's points actually have a larger bearing on the results here then the constant worry of the ageing of the collector base. Stamps, numismatics, vintage baseball and historical memorabilia, vintage guns, cars, etc. All currently at highs. I believe it has more to do with macroeconomics than anything else.

I think you're probably right in the long term, maybe today's kids in their early 30s will pass away and leave estate's of high-spend to be firesaled. But that's down the road. As for right now, everybody I know that's in their 60s and 70s that's talking about their stuff past their death has a spreadsheet for the wife and kids of what they paid and Heritage, Mitch, Burkey, Moy, Snyder on speed dial. I see the gap between those two groups being a serious re-pricing (along Gene's rate model) such that a lot of the liquidity options dry up. Right now comic art is too liquid. Everybody (and their spouses!) knows comic art is hot, keeps going up, is Big Money. That's why we're all fighting dealers at auction! For people to hang onto it past death leaving heirs to sell for 'whatever' requires people actually hanging onto things that long and the current market value being far enough away (lower) from cost that collectors aren't even tempted to cash in unless absolutely necessary. They'll die with it because they love it, even though the market doesn't (anymore).

 

Curiously enough...there are some other markets I'm involved in where this is exactly what happened. Once highly coveted and liquid objects are now being (and have been for a number of years) firesaled out of estates for 25-100% of cost...from back in the 1970s and 80s. And later pieces are taking actual realized hits against cost. All by the heirs. Prices were stagnant for so long there is a complete divorce by the collectors and later the heirs for cost basis and present liquid market value, so they go for whatever to generate cashflow and free up space. An absolute buyer's market. Very interesting. And disturbing. I'm getting some great deals...aesthetically at least...and yes, no matter the market by definition 'sorts it all out'.

 

Example: three weeks ago picked up a legitimate museum piece (no bs) for $400. Peanuts. What's that get me in 70s/80s comic art these days? Uh huh. But comps in this category from the same early 60s artist/period were around $10-15k in the early 90s and museums were actively acquiring, right at the peak. So you know people (or rather their estates) are getting burned hard. And that's nominally. Forget about inflation-adjusted. But I've got to go with only what I really love because I can't assume any sort of speculative profit on this material in my lifetime and dwindling space is always a concern. I'm safe at $400, probably could get it back out again without too much work, but more than that? Who knows??

 

There's always plenty of chatter that if prices cut in half or whatever, that would be great because the collectors could then buy it all up again. Because they're in it for the love not the money. As if. Not to say nobody would do that, but ask yourself, how much comic art would you buy if it was all available for 75% off...but with zero upside ever in your lifetime? Sunk money. Maybe breakeven someday...over the rainbow. How much would your wife really let you buy? And for that to happen, it would also mean all your oa friends would disappear, so no more high-fives on art days, you'd be one of the few "still" buying, probably laughed at as everybody would know comic oa is going nowhere. All done. Over. Peer pressure is a pretty big deal. Don't underestimate how much hotness in our hobby is due to everybody saying...it's HOT. Take that away, would it still be hot in your mind? (Again this is what I'm dealing with in the other segment, I'm not the only buyer but it's clear that I'm picking the bones with little competition...it's really weird. But the art is awesome...stuff I never thought I'd get a crack at!)

[Jesusjon]

 

There's always plenty of chatter that if prices cut in half or whatever, that would be great because the collectors could then buy it all up again. Because they're in it for the love not the money. As if. Not to say nobody would do that, but ask yourself, how much comic art would you buy if it was all available for 75% off...but with zero upside ever in your lifetime? Sunk money. Maybe breakeven someday...over the rainbow. How much would your wife really let you buy? And for that to happen, it would also mean all your oa friends would disappear, so no more high-fives on art days, you'd be one of the few "still" buying, probably laughed at as everybody would know comic oa is going nowhere. All done. Over. Peer pressure is a pretty big deal. Don't underestimate how much hotness in our hobby is due to everybody saying...it's HOT. Take that away, would it still be hot in your mind? (Again this is what I'm dealing with in the other segment, I'm not the only buyer but it's clear that I'm picking the bones with little competition...it's really weird. But the art is awesome...stuff I never thought I'd get a crack at!)

 

I would definitely buy a nice Killing Joke page at 75% off! I wouldn't be buying much of anything in multiples. Some favorites, some nostalgic treasures, and then I'd be happy. I'm not light years away from that now. 10 pieces, maybe 15, and I could be done done. There's still only one of each of these pages though so if I have my heart set on something Hari or Gene owns and loves, I'm probably SOL even if the market corrects to that extreme.

[Bronty]

Couldn't agree more that the 'I hope everything dies so I can buy more' is a crock of shlit. Where were all these guys in 1995 when things were in the crapper? Not buying books or art, and if they were, they weren't spending as much as now when you can buy something at heritage one week and recover most of your funds by selling it at clink anytime you feel like.

 

What is this other hobby you speak of?

[vodou]

What is this other hobby you speak of?

It's also art. I laid some hints in another thread...that's all I'll say for now, still feeding at the trough, don't need the extra competition (sorry!)

[Mephisto]

I remember seeing a pair of killing joke pages online priced at 4 or 6k in 2001.

 

That sounds about right. During that time, Joe Pruett was selling Bolland's artwork and he mentioned he was going to visit Bolland, who had recently discovered a box of art (hidden in the back of a closet?) and was bringing it back for sale.

 

Joe returned with the following:

 

-3 Killing Joke pages, including the splashy page with Batman in the Batmobile, a page with Batman, and I don't recall the content of the other

-Several Animal Man covers

-Several Animal Man cover prelims

-Several Wonder Woman cover prelims

-Several Invisibles cover prelims

-Green Lantern 127 cover

-all three Tales of the GL Corps cover

-a few miscellaneous items I can no longer remember.

 

The Killing Joke pages were $5K each, the splashy page was $8K.

To make a long story short, I had $5K burning a hole in my pocket and bought

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-3 Animal covers

-2Animal cover prelims

-3 Wonder Woman cover prelims

-2 Invisibles cover prelims

-all 3 Tales of the Green Lantern Corps covers

 

Sigh, hindsight is 20/20, but that being said, every cover was a winner, and the prelims were very nice, too.

 

Did you at least get the Wonder Woman prelim with Joker flashing her that was rejected?

[tth2]

So everyone should just stop quibbling about prices, because 20 years from now today`s prices will seem as cheap as the prices from 20 years ago do today.

 

I'm not saying that prices can't be higher 20 years from now, but will prices today look as cheap 20 years from now as prices from 20 years ago do today? I think whatever your view of the future course of this hobby is, there is virtually no chance of that starting at today's levels vs. the mostly 3 and 4 figure levels of 20 years ago. The hobby is simply at a different stage of development now versus back then (pre-Internet for most people, pre-eBay, pre-Heritage, pre-Comiclink, pre-CAF), and the course of future prices, however it may unfold, will reflect that.

You would've undoubtedly said the same thing in 1994, citing all the various developments that had happened in the period from 1974 to 1994 that had caused OA to be at their nosebleed 1994 prices, and why continued increases in prices at their then-current growth rates was unsustainable.

 

I would be happy to make a wager that in 2034, it is much more likely that people will be looking back wistfully at 2014 prices rather than thanking their lucky stars that they dodged the 2014 bullet.

[Bronty]

Yeah, he would have said that, and he would have been wrong, but at the same time, he has to be right sooner or later, no? The growth does have to slow down at some point and its reasonable to assume we are at that point for the great majority of comic OA. (that prices may increase... just slower).

 

This is where the discussions always bog down though because certainly some pieces may look real cheap in 20 years, and the rest that didn't perform as well, won't be talked about. So what are we talking about? The headline grabbers? Or the $500 - $5000 pages that form the majority of the market?

[Terry Doyle]

What is this other hobby you speak of?

It's also art. I laid some hints in another thread...that's all I'll say for now, still feeding at the trough, don't need the extra competition (sorry!)

 

Artist poop?