OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[jjeanius]

I grew up collecting Marvel superheroes in the mid 70's.

nobody needs to inform anyone of how awesome 10 cent war comics are, or are not, one look at a run of them is all that it takes especially golden age,..

they are not easy to find and that they have some of the most amazing covers in all of comics.

 

Another reason why war comics will continue to be sought after has to do with the fact that 2 of the greatest artists of the 20th Century and one of the the medium's most incredible storytellers have a large corpus of their work in the war genre:

 

- Joe Kubert

- Russ Heath

- Robert Kanigher

 

And I can't forget to mention a fantastic cover artist:

 

Jerry Grandinetti

 

Collectors who appreciate these legends will continue to "go to war" and experience some of best stuff ever published in the history of the American Comic Book.

 

And 83 is the pinnacle of this great era of the war genre...

 

This is a stretch.

[jjeanius]

I've been reading this thread from the beginning simply out of fascination. It does seem, though, that the avid collectors of war books are trying to convince everyone else to care. If something is truly collectible, and desirable, and growing in demand, this generally takes care of itself.

 

All I can say is this: I am 39, and I have been collecting comics for 30 years. I attended my first comic convention in 1985, and have been attending ever since. I can recognize just about every "major key" on sight, regardless of whether or not it is of any personal interest to me. I have spent a lifetime in comics. And yet, when I saw this thread for the first time, I initially opened it to find out the significance of OOAW 83. After 30 years of collecting comics, I had absolutely no idea what this book was. I didn't recognize the cover. This book did not register on any level.

 

Obviously, this book is extremely limited. Unfortunately, so is demand.

[thunsicker]

Perhaps bronzej could explain his definition of the term "breakthrough book" some more. Otherwise, there might be some misunderstanding of what he intended.

 

Sure- 83 is the first non-superhero genre key to exceed the value of some of the Overstreet Top 20 SA keys. If a war key competing with superhero keys in an age dominated by the superhero genre? If that's not a breakthrough, what is?

 

All it proves is that old people have money they didn't have the last 20 years and they are willing to spend it to regain a piece of their youth...

 

Seriously, the war genre is going to disappear along with westerns and everything else that is not popular with today's youth. It won't happen tomorrow, but it is coming.

 

There are way too many people in here that are blinded by the "what I collect is awesome" bug.

 

Your points about the demise of the war and western genres reminded me of the period after the Second World War when the superhero genre all but disappeared while the horror, crime, and romance genres dominated this medium. Perhaps it has nothing to do with "what I collect is awesome bug" but rather an understanding by some that many of the changes we see in this hobby we love are cyclical?

 

This may be the case, but at over 50 years of dominance I think you have to consider superheroes more than a cycle.

 

That said I don't believe that there is no chance of OAAW 83 popping. 30 years ago not many would have seen the rise of Pep 22 and Archie 1, but now they are definitely top 10 GA books.

[comick1]

Perhaps bronzej could explain his definition of the term "breakthrough book" some more. Otherwise, there might be some misunderstanding of what he intended.

 

Sure- 83 is the first non-superhero genre key to exceed the value of some of the Overstreet Top 20 SA keys. If a war key competing with superhero keys in an age dominated by the superhero genre? If that's not a breakthrough, what is?

 

All it proves is that old people have money they didn't have the last 20 years and they are willing to spend it to regain a piece of their youth...

 

Seriously, the war genre is going to disappear along with westerns and everything else that is not popular with today's youth. It won't happen tomorrow, but it is coming.

 

There are way too many people in here that are blinded by the "what I collect is awesome" bug.

 

Your points about the demise of the war and western genres reminded me of the period after the Second World War when the superhero genre all but disappeared while the horror, crime, and romance genres dominated this medium. Perhaps it has nothing to do with "what I collect is awesome bug" but rather an understanding by some that many of the changes we see in this hobby we love are cyclical?

 

This may be the case, but at over 50 years of dominance I think you have to consider superheroes more than a cycle.

 

That said I don't believe that there is no chance of OAAW 83 popping. 30 years ago not many would have seen the rise of Pep 22 and Archie 1, but now they are definitely top 10 GA books.

 

That may be true, but in the case of Archies, those have actually been in production continuously for the last 73ish years. They're available--along with the Enquirer and People--at the supermarket check-outs in more than one big SoCal chain. At least a couple of my 3rd graders come IN to my class every year already familiar with Archies (Of course, by the time I move them on to 4th, EVERY one of 'em loves Archies! So you can attribute the ENTIRETY of the Archie boom to ME!!!! ).

 

I don't think this is quite the same thing. Unless DC decides to do something tasteful, compelling, and approachable to all-age audiences, I don't see the same phenomenon in effect. I think there will always be a core group of collectors, but it won't have the resonance of a comic that has name recognition along the lines of Archie.

 

Ergo. . .time to sell your OAAW 83 (Jeffro and anybody else)!

[Gatsby77]

Obviously, this book is extremely limited. Unfortunately, so is demand.

 

This.

 

At $2,100 for a CGC 4.0 OAAW 83, your average collector and/or investor would much rather score:

 

4.0 Avengers 1

3.5 X-Men 1

4.5 Showcase 22

3.0 Journey Into Mystery 83

 

etc.

 

Again, I'm a Sgt. Rock fan. I'll consider an OAAW 83 for my collection, but I'm not naive enough to think that as an investment my $2,100 wouldn't be better spent elsewhere, or that it will legit outstrip the above books in the future for comparable amounts of today's dollars.

[bronze johnny]

I've been reading this thread from the beginning simply out of fascination. It does seem, though, that the avid collectors of war books are trying to convince everyone else to care. If something is truly collectible, and desirable, and growing in demand, this generally takes care of itself.

 

All I can say is this: I am 39, and I have been collecting comics for 30 years. I attended my first comic convention in 1985, and have been attending ever since. I can recognize just about every "major key" on sight, regardless of whether or not it is of any personal interest to me. I have spent a lifetime in comics. And yet, when I saw this thread for the first time, I initially opened it to find out the significance of OOAW 83. After 30 years of collecting comics, I had absolutely no idea what this book was. I didn't recognize the cover. This book did not register on any level.

 

Obviously, this book is extremely limited. Unfortunately, so is demand.

 

My preference is the superhero genre and I have nearly every SA Superhero key but that doesn't limit my appreciation for other genres. The fact that you had "absolutely no idea what this book was" is just one reason why this SA war key is slowly making its way up the hierarchy of SA keys and Overstreet should correct the oversight and be sure to include it on the list in the upcoming 45th Edition of the Price Guide.

 

By the way, how do you know demand is low for this book?

[bronze johnny]

Obviously, this book is extremely limited. Unfortunately, so is demand.

 

This.

 

At $2,100 for a CGC 4.0 OAAW 83, your average collector and/or investor would much rather score:

 

4.0 Avengers 1

3.5 X-Men 1

4.5 Showcase 22

3.0 Journey Into Mystery 83

 

etc.

 

Again, I'm a Sgt. Rock fan. I'll consider an OAAW 83 for my collection, but I'm not naive enough to think that as an investment my $2,100 wouldn't be better spent elsewhere, or that it will legit outstrip the above books in the future for comparable amounts of today's dollars.

 

As a diverse portfolio collector of SA keys, it's a book that's in my collection, along with AF 15, TOS 39, BB 28, SC 22, etc. While I respect your interest and postion as an investor, for me, collecting is not exclusive to investing.

[jjeanius]

 

My preference is the superhero genre and I have nearly every SA Superhero key but that doesn't limit my appreciation for other genres. The fact that you had "absolutely no idea what this book was" is just one reason why this SA war key is slowly making its way up the hierarchy of SA keys and Overstreet should correct the oversight and be sure to include it on the list in the upcoming 45th Edition of the Price Guide.

 

Interesting spin. And yet...now I know what this book is, and I still don't care. Sgt Rock simply isn't relevant to the vast majority of comic book collectors (and DC is currently doing nothing to change this).

 

 

By the way, how do you know demand is low for this book?

 

Simple. Look at every other SA key that sells for more in the same grade. Now cross-reference that with the books that are also much, MUCH more common. This is an extremely LONG list of books that have more demand even though they are also more common.

[bronze johnny]

 

My preference is the superhero genre and I have nearly every SA Superhero key but that doesn't limit my appreciation for other genres. The fact that you had "absolutely no idea what this book was" is just one reason why this SA war key is slowly making its way up the hierarchy of SA keys and Overstreet should correct the oversight and be sure to include it on the list in the upcoming 45th Edition of the Price Guide.

 

Interesting spin. And yet...now I know what this book is, and I still don't care. Sgt Rock simply isn't relevant to the vast majority of comic book collectors (and DC is currently doing nothing to change this).

 

 

By the way, how do you know demand is low for this book?

 

Simple. Look at every other SA key that sells for more in the same grade. Now cross-reference that with the books that are also much, MUCH more common. This is an extremely LONG list of books that have more demand even though they are also more common.

 

It's not spin- just my opinion. Should I refer to your's as spin? So you personally don't care for the book- nothing more for me to say here.

[jjeanius]

It's spin if you think that awareness that the book exists will suddenly make it more desirable to the uneducated.

 

Knowing about it is a far cry from caring about it.

 

Look at the list of every book currently ranked higher by value. Now...how many of those books are also more common?

 

How many other books are also close in value, but have census numbers that far exceed that of OOAW 83?

 

How much would OOAW 83 be worth if it were as common as AF 15? IMO, not very much at all.

[bronze johnny]

It's spin if you think that awareness that the book exists will suddenly make it more desirable to the uneducated.

 

Knowing about it is a far cry from caring about it.

 

Look at the list of every book currently ranked higher by value. Now...how many of those books are also more common?

 

How many other books are also close in value, but have census numbers that far exceed that of OOAW 83?

 

How much would OOAW 83 be worth if it were as common as AF 15? IMO, not very much at all.

 

Interesting spin and hypothetical question. Not interested in going back and forth with you about positions based on a "what if" - we differ on our collecting approaches. 'Nuff said.

 

[jjeanius]

It's spin if you think that awareness that the book exists will suddenly make it more desirable to the uneducated.

 

Knowing about it is a far cry from caring about it.

 

Look at the list of every book currently ranked higher by value. Now...how many of those books are also more common?

 

How many other books are also close in value, but have census numbers that far exceed that of OOAW 83?

 

How much would OOAW 83 be worth if it were as common as AF 15? IMO, not very much at all.

 

Interesting spin and hypothetical question. Not interested in going back and forth with you about positions based on a "what if" - we differ on our collecting approaches. 'Nuff said.

 

Choose not to answer?

 

That's OK, I'll fill you in on the last one: As supply increases, value decreases.

 

There are currently 105 copies of OOAW 83 on the census, as opposed to 2256 for AF 15. So...over 20 to 1. Divide current value of OOAW 83 by 20, and that's about right.

 

So...if it were as common as AF 15, a CGC 4.0 would be worth about $200. By contrast, AF 15 is $10k in 4.0.

 

So...how many other SA keys (or mid-keys) are worth $200+ in 4.0? Quite a few.

[comick1]

Obviously, this book is extremely limited. Unfortunately, so is demand.

 

This.

 

At $2,100 for a CGC 4.0 OAAW 83, your average collector and/or investor would much rather score:

 

4.0 Avengers 1

3.5 X-Men 1

4.5 Showcase 22

3.0 Journey Into Mystery 83

 

etc.

 

Again, I'm a Sgt. Rock fan. I'll consider an OAAW 83 for my collection, but I'm not naive enough to think that as an investment my $2,100 wouldn't be better spent elsewhere, or that it will legit outstrip the above books in the future for comparable amounts of today's dollars.

 

You make some very good points here. If I had that kinda change to "invest," I wouldn't be sinking it in to lower-grade OAAW 83 either.

 

However, I don't think the pricing spectrum from Good to NM is accurate. This is part of the problem with having really unreliable info about keys as rare (in grade) as the #83. First, it's just on fewer collectors' radars, but when the last high grade sale was at least a few years ago, there's little info for collectors/investors (C-link) about the "leader." I'm sure this has been discussed in other threads ad-nauseum, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that it's the high grade copies that "lead" the range. I'm getting clumsy in my verbiage here, but what I'm trying to say is that when a high grade copy (I'm calling it the "leader") makes a notable sale, it tends to drag the mid and low grade copies along with it. It happens with high-end GA and SA. Those high-grade ("leader") sales continue to drive the demand and notoriety of the lower grade ones. . .I would say that that dynamic seldom occurs in reverse. So when there's no "leader," there's stagnation--real or perceived. When you're talking about those blue-chip Marvels or even a Showcase 22, there are just more "leader" sales (WAYYYYYYY more in the case of every Marvel key--even the supposed "rare" ones like Hulk 1) that drag the lower-end market along. When the next high grade sale comes along for OAAW 83--no idea how long that'll be--it'll be interesting to see what happens to the more plentiful (but comparatively rare to Marvel) lower grade issues.

 

I COULD be wrong on this, but it's definitely a phenomenon that I've noticed over my years of collecting--even when, in the vast majority of observations, I'm not necessarily eyeing things for purchase. There just aren't very many high grade "leaders" in this case, so when we see "actual" current market data for OAAW 83 (GPA, Clink, even ebay), they're always the lower grade copies. It's interpreted by investors as "greater volatility" and doesn't have the "sure-fire" effect that the Blue-Chips do. There's just tons more hard data on those and the pricing precedent resonates as a sure bet. Are there other factors that are in effect? Sure! But I'd say that's a major one.

 

For the record, I agree with you. . .just trying to explain at least one of the factors that accounts for the book's perceived stagnation.

[bronze johnny]

It's spin if you think that awareness that the book exists will suddenly make it more desirable to the uneducated.

 

Knowing about it is a far cry from caring about it.

 

Look at the list of every book currently ranked higher by value. Now...how many of those books are also more common?

 

How many other books are also close in value, but have census numbers that far exceed that of OOAW 83?

 

How much would OOAW 83 be worth if it were as common as AF 15? IMO, not very much at all.

 

Interesting spin and hypothetical question. Not interested in going back and forth with you about positions based on a "what if" - we differ on our collecting approaches. 'Nuff said.

 

...based on a "what if"...?!? What are you talking about?

 

I posed three very relevant questions about the current comic book market. You simply choose not to answer.

 

You simply don't get the purpose of this thread. You don't see 83 as a key. My thread indicates that this book is a top 20 SA key per Overstreet only it was left off the list. My question for this thread has to do with whether 83 could rise higher. Since you don't accept 83's place as a SA key, why should I bother to waste my time arguing with you? Let me suggest you start a thread as to whether 83 is a key?

[jjeanius]

Hey - if you only care to hear from those that agree with you, I get it. You just should have spelled that out at the beginning.

 

Does anyone have some kool-aid I can drink? Getting kinda thirsty from all this riveting unwelcome debate.

[Bronty]

It's spin if you think that awareness that the book exists will suddenly make it more desirable to the uneducated.

 

Knowing about it is a far cry from caring about it.

 

Look at the list of every book currently ranked higher by value. Now...how many of those books are also more common?

 

How many other books are also close in value, but have census numbers that far exceed that of OOAW 83?

 

How much would OOAW 83 be worth if it were as common as AF 15? IMO, not very much at all.

 

Interesting spin and hypothetical question. Not interested in going back and forth with you about positions based on a "what if" - we differ on our collecting approaches. 'Nuff said.

 

Choose not to answer?

 

That's OK, I'll fill you in on the last one: As supply increases, value decreases.

 

There are currently 105 copies of OOAW 83 on the census, as opposed to 2256 for AF 15. So...over 20 to 1. Divide current value of OOAW 83 by 20, and that's about right.

 

So...if it were as common as AF 15, a CGC 4.0 would be worth about $200. By contrast, AF 15 is $10k in 4.0.

 

So...how many other SA keys (or mid-keys) are worth $200+ in 4.0? Quite a few.

 

$200? For the first rock? I think you are underestimating

 

Quite apart from Mick's valid point that more frequent trading would in some ways help the book, even if one accepts that the value would come down at an AF15 supply level, there's no way it would be $200. Its still the key war book. I can't see it being less than $500 in vg even as a very worst case scenario if you make it very common for an early SA book.

 

as for your not knowing about the book, its not that surprising when #81 was for a long time considered the 1st app (now considered a prototype).

[MusterMark]

It does seem, though, that the avid collectors of war books are trying to convince everyone else to care.

 

I know you didn't single any one out. But I would like to address this for what I MYSELF am trying to do. What I am trying to do is to show enthusiasm for a wide variety of comic genres and books. I love all comics. Because they are: comics. A novel idea, perhaps ...

 

If something is truly collectible, and desirable, and growing in demand, this generally takes care of itself.

 

Yes, you are right. Well put.

Thus, OAAW 83 has risen in value sharply over the last 10 years, in sales in many formats, including open.

Of course there are periods of leveling off and ups/downs - how could there not be?

Take, for example, ASM 1 (of which I own two copies). Over the last two years, AVERAGE sales of ASM 1 in many grades have been relatively stagnant. From month to month, there have been plenty of ups and downs, as of course there should be - there are so many variables that affect each individual sale.

 

I have spent a lifetime in comics. And yet, when I saw this thread for the first time, I initially opened it to find out the significance of OOAW 83. After 30 years of collecting comics, I had absolutely no idea what this book was. I didn't recognize the cover. This book did not register on any level.

 

Indeed, this is VERY easy to do. I too have been collecting for some time (though you much longer than me). A good example of this narrow approach and focus is: Me. Until recently, I had very little knowledge or interest in Romance books. Just very recently, I started reading the Romance threads on these boards. They are fascinating, informative and exciting. Next up for me will be: Westerns. As I said, I love comics because they are comics. If you had, by the way, read the War Comics thread even a little bit over the last so many years, this would not have happened to you.

 

 

Obviously, this book is extremely limited. Unfortunately, so is demand.

 

And thus, we have the contradiction. As stated earlier, Average prices for this book have risen significantly over the last 10 years (despite any periods of leveling-off/ups-downs, which occur with many books, including huge keys). If this tremendous increase in price is due to (or even in spite of) "extremely limited demand", then we will need to re-write our economics textbooks.

 

 

 

[bronze johnny]

Hey - if you only care to hear from those that agree with you, I get it. You just should have spelled that out at the beginning.

 

Does anyone have some kool-aid I can drink? Getting kinda thirsty from all this riveting unwelcome debate.

 

Get me a glass too. Again, We don't agree on whether 83 is a key. It's not the subject of this thread- My interest lies in discussing and debating 83's place among the top 20 SA keys list in the OSPG. So your conclusion that my not debating a tangential argument with you means I "only care to hear from those that agree with me?"

 

Now that's a stretch.

 

 

[jjeanius]

Hey - if you only care to hear from those that agree with you, I get it. You just should have spelled that out at the beginning.

 

Does anyone have some kool-aid I can drink? Getting kinda thirsty from all this riveting unwelcome debate.

 

Get me a glass too. Again, We don't agree on whether 83 is a key. It's not the subject of this thread- My interest lies in discussing and debating 83's place among the top 20 SA keys list in the OSPG. So your conclusion that my not debating a tangential argument with you means I "only care to hear from those that agree with me?"

 

Now that's a stretch.

 

 

I am saying that I do not see OOAW 83 as a key in the first place, and you are saying that this is not relevant to the topic of this thread - correct?

 

OK, I will restate my position in such a way as to make it relevant:

 

For starters, it would, first and foremost, need to be an SA KEY in order to make the list of TOP 5 SA KEYS. As I do not see it as an SA KEY to begin with, I certainly do not see it breaking into the TOP 5 SA KEYS. (thumbs u

[Gatsby77]

It's a key, probably a legit top 20 key.

 

(I know it was improperly left off the 2014 list, but whether it's still top 20 by value in 2015 means betting against relative increases in Adventure 247, FF # 2, and in particular, FF # 4. And if Guardians of the Galaxy continues to be a thing, Tales to Astonish 13 could join the top 20 within the next five years)

 

But the consensus pages ago was that a) it should be a top 20 key but not a top 10 key; and b) likely will never break the top 10 given:

 

1) The immense popularity of the top 10-12 Silver Age books it would need to displace

2) The limited appeal of war books relative to superhero books as a genre

3) Sgt. Rock ceased regular publication 30 years ago

4) There's no movie plans on the horizon

5) It'd be difficult to do as a movie because there's little to distinguish it from a generic war film like Fury

6) Recent sales trends (albeit in mid-grade) that show diminished demand for the issue relative to five years ago.

 

 

 

 

But Ok, so it rises by value from # 19 to what -- # 14? It's still going to be a niche book with limited appeal.

 

There's a romance book in the Bronze top 10. And the vast majority of collectors don't care, and would prefer to spend their shekels on any number of second-tier Marvel keys like Marvel Spotlight 5, Spider-Man 121-122, Werewolf By Night 32, or Hero For Hire 1 than on DC 100 Page Super Spectacular # 5.