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Darkseid vs Standard and Poor's
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Started by HighStakesComics,

44 posts in this topic

thunsicker

thunsicker

Posted
Posted
I mostly put together the list to test the conventional wisdom that SA Marvels are a can't miss investment from here, which I disagree with strongly.

 

The DC keys don't have that same conventional wisdom consensus.

 

For that reason, I agree with you that they have a better chance of doing well as a investment speculation.

 

Where are the DC SA keys? That is where the better opportunity will be over the next few years IMHO as they are starting from a much lower value point.

 

FTFY

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Shrevvy

Shrevvy

Posted
Posted

Someone mentioned this would give evidence of the stocks>comics debate. It won't. Even if comics come out ahead, the bet is rigged in favor of comics. Still, this will be fun to watch. A bet makes it even more interesting.

 

I see at least three large flaws with the comparison.

 

Transaction costs - You buy comics with 0% commission, but you sell with something much higher - call it 10% (higher at Heritage, potentially lower at eBay). You buy and sell stocks with a much smaller commission on the way in and the way out. Stocks already have an inherent edge because of transaction costs. That should not be discounted.

 

Asset vs Index - The bet is "cherry picking" a select group of comics or a single comic, but chosing a market index for stocks. This will produce more volatility for the comic side of the bet, which could either be good or bad. A more appropriate comparison would be all comics or all silver age, etc if comparing to an index.

 

Liquidity - Although not captured in the numbers, there is a HUGE liquidity advantage in stocks. Say you wanted to invested $50k in that FP#1 CGC 9.6. Not going to happen. Even if it could happen, that would drive a CGC 9.6 well above $650 in the process. Say you have an AF15 CGC 4.0 and have to sell it tomorrow. Will you get full GPA? Maybe, maybe not. Using the same $50k investment, could you sell 5 copies at full GPA tomorrow? Probably a bit harder. The least liquid stock in the S&P 500 trades ~$20 million a day. That is probably more liquidity than occurs in the most liquid comic book in a year.

 

 

 

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Hamlet

Hamlet

Posted
Posted

I think I've been clear that the actual bet itself won't show much. The time frame is too short and FP1 is a single book.

 

I do think that it will be much more interesting to watch the group of Marvel keys I selected versus the S&P500 over a longer time frame. I think that as the years go by that will show the inherent advantage of investing in stocks over comics.

 

Someone mentioned this would give evidence of the stocks>comics debate. It won't. Even if comics come out ahead, the bet is rigged in favor of comics. Still, this will be fun to watch. A bet makes it even more interesting.

 

I see at least three large flaws with the comparison.

 

Transaction costs - You buy comics with 0% commission, but you sell with something much higher - call it 10% (higher at Heritage, potentially lower at eBay). You buy and sell stocks with a much smaller commission on the way in and the way out. Stocks already have an inherent edge because of transaction costs. That should not be discounted.

 

Asset vs Index - The bet is "cherry picking" a select group of comics or a single comic, but chosing a market index for stocks. This will produce more volatility for the comic side of the bet, which could either be good or bad. A more appropriate comparison would be all comics or all silver age, etc if comparing to an index.

 

Liquidity - Although not captured in the numbers, there is a HUGE liquidity advantage in stocks. Say you wanted to invested $50k in that FP#1 CGC 9.6. Not going to happen. Even if it could happen, that would drive a CGC 9.6 well above $650 in the process. Say you have an AF15 CGC 4.0 and have to sell it tomorrow. Will you get full GPA? Maybe, maybe not. Using the same $50k investment, could you sell 5 copies at full GPA tomorrow? Probably a bit harder. The least liquid stock in the S&P 500 trades ~$20 million a day. That is probably more liquidity than occurs in the most liquid comic book in a year.

 

 

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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

Posted
Posted
Yeah, but stocks are BORING!

 

lol

 

Stocks are a challenge, but I`m pretty sure Darkseid keys will beat bonds and savings accounts over the next few years.

Bonds pay junk.

Bond interest rates.

 

Your better off investing in comic book keys.

If you pick the right comics/sportscard/lego/videogames

you will beat bonds and the interest a bank pays you for a savings account.

 

Stocks is a little different game, and should be treated as such.

Still don`t let that scare you from picking the right comic book keys.

2c

 

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BlowUpTheMoon

BlowUpTheMoon

Posted
Posted
I think I've been clear that the actual bet itself won't show much. The time frame is too short and FP1 is a single book.

 

I do think that it will be much more interesting to watch the group of Marvel keys I selected versus the S&P500 over a longer time frame. I think that as the years go by that will show the inherent advantage of investing in stocks over comics.

 

Someone mentioned this would give evidence of the stocks>comics debate. It won't. Even if comics come out ahead, the bet is rigged in favor of comics. Still, this will be fun to watch. A bet makes it even more interesting.

 

I see at least three large flaws with the comparison.

 

Transaction costs - You buy comics with 0% commission, but you sell with something much higher - call it 10% (higher at Heritage, potentially lower at eBay). You buy and sell stocks with a much smaller commission on the way in and the way out. Stocks already have an inherent edge because of transaction costs. That should not be discounted.

 

Asset vs Index - The bet is "cherry picking" a select group of comics or a single comic, but chosing a market index for stocks. This will produce more volatility for the comic side of the bet, which could either be good or bad. A more appropriate comparison would be all comics or all silver age, etc if comparing to an index.

 

Liquidity - Although not captured in the numbers, there is a HUGE liquidity advantage in stocks. Say you wanted to invested $50k in that FP#1 CGC 9.6. Not going to happen. Even if it could happen, that would drive a CGC 9.6 well above $650 in the process. Say you have an AF15 CGC 4.0 and have to sell it tomorrow. Will you get full GPA? Maybe, maybe not. Using the same $50k investment, could you sell 5 copies at full GPA tomorrow? Probably a bit harder. The least liquid stock in the S&P 500 trades ~$20 million a day. That is probably more liquidity than occurs in the most liquid comic book in a year.

 

 

 

Post underneath the quoted text! :frustrated:

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slym2none

slym2none

Posted
Posted
I think I've been clear that the actual bet itself won't show much. The time frame is too short and FP1 is a single book.

 

I do think that it will be much more interesting to watch the group of Marvel keys I selected versus the S&P500 over a longer time frame. I think that as the years go by that will show the inherent advantage of investing in stocks over comics.

 

Someone mentioned this would give evidence of the stocks>comics debate. It won't. Even if comics come out ahead, the bet is rigged in favor of comics. Still, this will be fun to watch. A bet makes it even more interesting.

 

I see at least three large flaws with the comparison.

 

Transaction costs - You buy comics with 0% commission, but you sell with something much higher - call it 10% (higher at Heritage, potentially lower at eBay). You buy and sell stocks with a much smaller commission on the way in and the way out. Stocks already have an inherent edge because of transaction costs. That should not be discounted.

 

Asset vs Index - The bet is "cherry picking" a select group of comics or a single comic, but chosing a market index for stocks. This will produce more volatility for the comic side of the bet, which could either be good or bad. A more appropriate comparison would be all comics or all silver age, etc if comparing to an index.

 

Liquidity - Although not captured in the numbers, there is a HUGE liquidity advantage in stocks. Say you wanted to invested $50k in that FP#1 CGC 9.6. Not going to happen. Even if it could happen, that would drive a CGC 9.6 well above $650 in the process. Say you have an AF15 CGC 4.0 and have to sell it tomorrow. Will you get full GPA? Maybe, maybe not. Using the same $50k investment, could you sell 5 copies at full GPA tomorrow? Probably a bit harder. The least liquid stock in the S&P 500 trades ~$20 million a day. That is probably more liquidity than occurs in the most liquid comic book in a year.

 

 

 

Post underneath the quoted text! :frustrated:

 

I really don't know why people post like that. It is frustrating.

 

 

 

-slym

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Vikingreed

Vikingreed

Posted
Posted
Yeah, but stocks are BORING!

 

lol

 

Stocks are a challenge, but I`m pretty sure Darkseid keys will beat bonds and savings accounts over the next few years.

Bonds pay junk.

Bond interest rates.

 

Your better off investing in comic book keys.

If you pick the right comics/sportscard/lego/videogames

you will beat bonds and the interest a bank pays you for a savings account.

 

Stocks is a little different game, and should be treated as such.

Still don`t let that scare you from picking the right comic book keys.

2c

 

I probably should invest more in other areas than I do, but I LOVE comics.

I'm not treating them as a retirement option, however. Just a hobby. I can't imagine ever selling...

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kimik

kimik

Posted
Posted
I mostly put together the list to test the conventional wisdom that SA Marvels are a can't miss investment from here, which I disagree with strongly.

 

The DC keys don't have that same conventional wisdom consensus.

 

For that reason, I agree with you that they have a better chance of doing well as a investment.

 

Where are the DC SA keys? That is where the better opportunity will be over the next few years IMHO as they are starting from a much lower value point.

 

Off the top of my head and because I do not follow any of the war titles you could consider the following for Silver and Bronze DC.

 

Action #252

Adventure #247

Brave & Bold #28

Brave & Bold #34

Showcase #4

Showcase #22

Showcase #30

Showcase #34

Batman #232 (GL #76 is a consideration, but I think Batman #232 is a better choice due to Ra's Al Ghul being on TV now)

HOS #92

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Hamlet

Hamlet

Posted
Posted
The Comiclink sale from last night was $650 again--

 

http://www.comiclink.com/Auctions/item.asp?back=%2FComicTrack%2FAuctions%2Fbids%2Easp&id=1061418

 

I'm starting to think I need to be buying Forever People #1 on Comiclink and selling them on E-bay. :D

 

I almost put in a $650 dollar bid myself so that I my bet would be hedged :D

 

One sold on E-bay for $849 on 6/11.

 

It is a little strange how different the market seems to be for this book on E-bay vs Comiclink.

 

 

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Hamlet

Hamlet

Posted
Posted

Looks like this ended up being pretty much a wash between the FP1 in 9.6 and the S&P 500 according to the rules of the bet.  The last two sales of the FP1 don't look real good trend-wise though (490 and 525).

I just signed back up on GPA to check on the FP1.  I will probably update the key list out of curiosity. 

 

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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Hamlet said:

Looks like this ended up being pretty much a wash between the FP1 in 9.6 and the S&P 500 according to the rules of the bet.  The last two sales of the FP1 don't look real good trend-wise though (490 and 525).

I just signed back up on GPA to check on the FP1.  I will probably update the key list out of curiosity. 

 

OP should have chose Ironman #55 first Thanos instead.

Even though Darkseid came first we will find Thanos is considered bigger and badder which equals hotter.

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