FF 45, Dont believe the hype ?:?!!

[SquareChaos]

When you're mostly selling to people who are buying because they want to flip....that's a big, big warning sign.

 

RMA has a very valid point here – also: I can’t really see why a person who gets passionate about one or two movies should become so interested to "have" first appearance books. Interest and affection are not things that you artificially create, they come from an awareness which is acquired by getting to know the characters and their history.

 

Even sticking to Marvel alone, in the majority of cases they’ve de facto cut the bridges with the characters (Civil War is a good example), and continued to do so. Who would want to own, say, a Fantastic Four #45 when what they are doing with the Inhumans may largely have very little to do with what the Inhumans have been along the Marvel age?

 

I see how an accidental moviegoer, or children (these movies are mostly not for children, anyway) can get interested in movies and then discover a long tradition and history of a character, get passionate about them and then become readers and collectors, but unless there is some looking back, and consistency in the development of the characters, this is not a market destined to last.

Do you realize Disney actually "killed" Disney comics in your country though the 1960s/70s? This did not happen elsewhere, but when there is not continuity and sense, and the companies are only seeing short-term income, well, that is just bad.

 

This has typically been my take on it.

 

The main thing these inflated prices do is discourage actual collectors - there is a growing list of books that I want that I will not allow myself to consider due to cost.

 

I doubt that I'll walk away from the hobby because of it, not with new books appearing that I do enjoy, but I don't think it is a healthy sign for the industry as a whole.

 

Don't even get me started on people buying / holding things as an investment.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The amount of times the phrase "This/these will only go up in value" is repeated on these boards should also be a very, VERY serious warning sign that all is not well in the House of Cards.

[COI]

Ever notice how books that are pumped up pre-movie deflate after the movie has come and gone? That's because the run up in prices doesn't reflect real demand by new fans touched by the film's reach; it reflects people who already put money in comics to focus their speculative dollars on a handful of books, waiting for that perfect time to dump when anticipation for the film is at its highest. Flippers making margins off of flippers, not fans buying copies to keep. Sounds real sustainable.

[Bookery]

No, even in a full market collapse, the amount of money printed out of thin air since it was a $100 book, is so massive, it cant.

 

Could it nominally go down to an equivalent amount of money to whatever $100 was worth, maybe in a falling tide bottoms out all boats scenario.

 

This is in interesting point to factor in. Depending upon numerous and conflicting sources, the real rate of inflation over the past 4 to 5 years is somewhere between 25% and 40%. One can assume that collecibles are not immune to this. So even routine books should have risen, say, 50% over the last 7 to 8 years just to stay even. Many haven't, of course, and those that have stayed static or even dipped have in reality plummeted fairly severely.

 

To be considered a truly "hot" book when adjusted for inflation, a book probably should have at least doubled in value over that time frame (which obviously, a number of them have).

 

[COI]

 

RMA has a very valid point here – also: I can’t really see why a person who gets passionate about one or two movies should become so interested to "have" first appearance books. Interest and affection are not things that you artificially create, they come from an awareness which is acquired by getting to know the characters and their history.

 

 

It's the fanboy's delusional fantasy-fueled fallacy that the decades old newsprint they developed a fondness for reading collecting over a lifetime can be equally appealing as a collectible to anyone who sees a movie they like. As if people leave theaters saying "that was a great movie; now I need to spend thousands in a depressed economy on their debut in a medium I've never had attachment to before".

[JollyComics]

I sold FF #45 CGC 8.5 four years ago for measly $95.

 

See how I felt about it.

[RCheli]

I'm trying to decide when to put my Avengers #55 up for sale. A week before the movie is released, maybe?

[Rip]

I would sell any and all 55's and 57's now! Especially the 55.

[1Cool]

I'm trying to decide when to put my Avengers #55 up for sale. A week before the movie is released, maybe?

 

I've got an ungraded FN copy I'm thinking the same thing. It seems the AV 55 boat may have sailed but who know we may se a huge uptick right before the movie comes out.

[1Cool]

I would sell any and all 55's and 57's now! Especially the 55.

Why?

[chrisco37]

 

It's the fanboy's delusional fantasy-fueled fallacy that the decades old newsprint they developed a fondness for reading collecting over a lifetime can be equally appealing as a collectible to anyone who sees a movie they like. As if people leave theaters saying "that was a great movie; now I need to spend thousands in a depressed economy on their debut in a medium I've never had attachment to before".

 

Such a Debbie-downer. You could ruin a wet dream.

[COI]

The amount of times the phrase "This/these will only go up in value" is repeated on these boards should also be a very, VERY serious warning sign that all is not well in the House of Cards.

 

You can now buy a house in what used to be one of the greatest manufacturing cities in the world for $500, but FF 45 will never drop much lower than where it is now. Because reasons.

[1Cool]

 

RMA has a very valid point here – also: I can’t really see why a person who gets passionate about one or two movies should become so interested to "have" first appearance books. Interest and affection are not things that you artificially create, they come from an awareness which is acquired by getting to know the characters and their history.

 

 

It's the fanboy's delusional fantasy-fueled fallacy that the decades old newsprint they developed a fondness for reading collecting over a lifetime can be equally appealing as a collectible to anyone who sees a movie they like. As if people leave theaters saying "that was a great movie; now I need to spend thousands in a depressed economy on their debut in a medium I've never had attachment to before".

 

Saw a younger guy buy a AV 57 reprint book at the Indiana Con and he said some day he would have the original since he has loved Vision for awhile. Guy couldn't have been older then 25 so I do think people do go out looking for the 1st appearance of the characters they know. People were running all over the place looking for BA 12 at every con I go to with plenty of them being younger people. Its not all doom and gloom.

[COI]

 

It's the fanboy's delusional fantasy-fueled fallacy that the decades old newsprint they developed a fondness for reading collecting over a lifetime can be equally appealing as a collectible to anyone who sees a movie they like. As if people leave theaters saying "that was a great movie; now I need to spend thousands in a depressed economy on their debut in a medium I've never had attachment to before".

 

Such a Debbie-downer. You could ruin a wet dream.

 

Can and have.

[COI]

 

RMA has a very valid point here – also: I can’t really see why a person who gets passionate about one or two movies should become so interested to "have" first appearance books. Interest and affection are not things that you artificially create, they come from an awareness which is acquired by getting to know the characters and their history.

 

 

It's the fanboy's delusional fantasy-fueled fallacy that the decades old newsprint they developed a fondness for reading collecting over a lifetime can be equally appealing as a collectible to anyone who sees a movie they like. As if people leave theaters saying "that was a great movie; now I need to spend thousands in a depressed economy on their debut in a medium I've never had attachment to before".

 

Saw a younger guy buy a AV 57 reprint book at the Indiana Con and he said some day he would have the original since he has loved Vision for awhile. Guy couldn't have been older then 25 so I do think people do go out looking for the 1st appearance of the characters they know. People were running all over the place looking for BA 12 at every con I go to with plenty of them being younger people. Its not all doom and gloom.

 

The Vision hasn't been in a movie yet, and he clearly already had some attachment to the character; a character which hasn't had much exposure outside of comics, which means he probably has a history with the medium. Not what I'm talking about above.

 

[fantastic_four]

this book is common in high grade

 

I can only assume you've never actually looked for one. It has always been the hardest issue to find in high grade in the 41 to 50 range along with #42 and #43, and it's harder than most issues going all the way back to 20 or so. There are a few random issues that are harder to find from 20 to 100 than #45 is, but not many. It's all relative, but when you're talking about this particular issue, it's not comparatively true to describe this one as "common in high grade." Both #44 and #46 are two to three times more available than 45.

 

Having said that, I'm similarly skeptical of current prices. Impossible to say until we see what the movies are like. I definitely don't see this one staying significantly higher than #49 like it has become.

[CBT]

The amount of times the phrase "This/these will only go up in value" is repeated on these boards should also be a very, VERY serious warning sign that all is not well in the House of Cards.

 

It is indeed, good thing no one has said it in this thread yet.

[Hamlet]

Funny how the people talking about all of that inflation never produce any numbers showing how they calculated it.

 

Inflation has been very, very low since the financial crisis. I'd love to see the crazy basket of goods someone would have to come up with to show 25% inflation over the last 5 years.

 

Take gas--

 

http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=60

 

That's deflation.

 

Take rents--

 

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/rent/us/

 

These numbers only go to 2013, but its pretty clear we're not seeing massive rent inflation.

 

 

 

I've never seen anyone produce something with actual realistic numbers that has shown that the CPI is wildly off over the time frame we are talking about. They are usually focused in on some outlier that bugs them, and coming up with a number based on "feel".

 

 

 

 

This is in interesting point to factor in. Depending upon numerous and conflicting sources, the real rate of inflation over the past 4 to 5 years is somewhere between 25% and 40%. One can assume that collecibles are not immune to this. So even routine books should have risen, say, 50% over the last 7 to 8 years just to stay even. Many haven't, of course, and those that have stayed static or even dipped have in reality plummeted fairly severely.

 

To be considered a truly "hot" book when adjusted for inflation, a book probably should have at least doubled in value over that time frame (which obviously, a number of them have).

[CBT]

No, even in a full market collapse, the amount of money printed out of thin air since it was a $100 book, is so massive, it cant.

 

Could it nominally go down to an equivalent amount of money to whatever $100 was worth, maybe in a falling tide bottoms out all boats scenario.

 

This is in interesting point to factor in. Depending upon numerous and conflicting sources, the real rate of inflation over the past 4 to 5 years is somewhere between 25% and 40%. One can assume that collecibles are not immune to this. So even routine books should have risen, say, 50% over the last 7 to 8 years just to stay even. Many haven't, of course, and those that have stayed static or even dipped have in reality plummeted fairly severely.

 

To be considered a truly "hot" book when adjusted for inflation, a book probably should have at least doubled in value over that time frame (which obviously, a number of them have).

 

Yah, Walking Dead, hyperinflation, and 0% interest rate accounts for the majority of the run up imo. The whole comic market is a massive bubble. Slabbed comics are a huge bubble. High end Silver and Golden Age are a huge bubble. Modern comics are a huge bubble. Marvel Movie books a big bubble.

 

What matters a lot more than a specific valuation, is the relative valuation. Where do books lie relative to each other.

 

FF45/46 are permanently higher up relative to all other books, than they were prior to inhumans becoming mainstream. Nothing more nothing less.

 

The error people make is looking at the roller coaster speculative books of say 09-12, that flare up and then crash down, and then try to say that Marvel books will track the same course.

 

Books that werent key, have become key, and some people accept it (or front-runned it ), and others deny it.

 

What someone is willing to pay for a key, or for any comic, is not about new people seeing a movie and running out and buying a book (and i dont think anyone thinks that it is, thats a strawman), its about being a collector, and what books do you want to have in your collection.

 

The 90s bubble pushed a lot of people out of comics, the comic book movie era has brought a lot of those people back. When they came back, and fully realized that their collections were worthless, they go after keys.

 

The people that never left are more than happy to tell them what books they should buy, and what keys are important. Sites like recalledcomics invent pseudo-keys, and hold up prices on "rare" errors and variants. Walking Dead runs up prices on optioned for TV books, (which kinda popped in '13, certainly it peaked in '13).

 

There is without doubt lots of speculative money pouring into Marvel movie books, some of which will probably fall a fair bit. I have never hesitated in my pointing out that Ironman 55 is a Villain book. (imo the most overvalued Marvel movie spec book). BUT, lots of books that werent keys have become keys, and thats not going to go away.

 

FF45/46 will NEVER go back to where they were, but there will be buying opportunities and pull backs. I am happy to eat my words when I am proven wrong. But I am much happier I bought my very high grade copies ahead of the jump, and have no intention of selling them trying to time a top. They are keepers, and a couple more books permanently off the market.

[CBT]

Saw a younger guy buy a AV 57 reprint book at the Indiana Con and he said some day he would have the original since he has loved Vision for awhile. Guy couldn't have been older then 25 so I do think people do go out looking for the 1st appearance of the characters they know. People were running all over the place looking for BA 12 at every con I go to with plenty of them being younger people. Its not all doom and gloom.

 

I am torn on AV57. 2 Years ago I was telling everyone in private to buy this book because it was going to explode. I bought the 7.5 in my sig for a bit over $100 and it was high at the time, and my hope was to sell it for $500 once the hype hit.

 

Once prices really started jumping I thought, I will hang on and sell it the week the movie comes out when everyone is hyped on him.

 

Personally I never cared for the Vision, and its a bit frustrating that it sounds like he is going to have a permanently significant role in the movies. I do think his book could go up another 25% once vision mania hits.

 

I'll likely sell into the mania, but if I had a 9.6 or 9.8 and only one copy, I probably would just keep it. Getting a 7.5 back via raw and slab, should be pretty easy. Getting a top tier copy back without paying through the nose...well. Not a gamble I would take if I had one.