FF 45, Dont believe the hype ?:?!!

[Columbia Comics]

I took the opportunity afforded by the big price gain/bubble/who knows on FF45 to sell my 9.4 copy.

 

I might know the guy who bought it based on the who knows factor. I think it has room to move still.

 

(thumbs u

 

Hope you are right sir!

[Mr. Hog]

I did say 3 or 4 times that my observations are local and anecdotal.

 

With that said, my wife was pondering a job in Jackson, MIssissippi so I checked out real estate prices in Madison County, which I guess is the really nice suburb to live down there. Oh well, my dreams of moving to a mansion on a lake for 1/4 of the price of my Brooklyn home were crushed!

 

Considering a move to Denver... Likely going to have to part with a good selection of my collection to make it happen. I feel your pain brother. Prices are not what I thought they'd be.

[CBT]

I took the opportunity afforded by the big price gain/bubble/who knows on FF45 to sell my 9.4 copy.

 

I might know the guy who bought it based on the who knows factor. I think it has room to move still.

 

I think it will continue moving in spurts at least to the film, than after it probably pull back a bit as people realize they cant get "even more" for it. Inhumans 2 would be the next big target for it, but given that Marvel wants to replace mutants with inhumans, it definitely has long legs.

[Bookery]

Give me a real non-kook site that has real data that shows inflation has been a lot higher than 2-3%/year since the financial crisis. Look back at many consumer prices, and you see things were awfully pricey already in 2007/2008. They crashed during the crisis, and are now somewhat higher than they were in 2007/2008, but not dramatically so.

 

Anytime someone actually sits down and tries to truly measure inflation, they end up in the ballpark of CPI, or they pick a spending basket that is not representative of the general population.

 

How many McDonald's chicken sandwiches (zero inflation for like a decade) get eaten for every Ribeye steak (high inflation)? The basket of goods you use to measure inflation needs to reflect the general population's spending.

 

Your example above is actually a great illustration of what's wrong with CPI. The cost of steak goes up and up. Finally, a household gives up and quits buying steak, switching to cheaper hamburger instead. The CPI looks at this and determines that people are spending less on beef now than before. The CPI goes down. The media announces that CPI is down, therefore inflation is down. But it's inflation that caused the change in behavior which caused the CPI to report less beef-spending in the first place!

 

I won't post site-links for 3 reasons...

 

(A) I've already caused too much thread derailment.

 

(B) Even though economics in and of itself is entirely different than politics, it won't be the first time the two have been conflated on this Board. I've never gotten a thread locked, and I don't intend to now.

 

© Even if the above two weren't an issue, I still wouldn't be inclined to do so. And I seriously mean this without intending offense... but in 20 years or more I don't know of anyone that takes the CPI seriously outside of certain government jobs tied directly to benefitting from the use of that index, or news reporters who can't count their own pocket change let alone understand economics issues. You're the one with an unusual argument demanding that others provide you with scientific evidence that the sky appears blue. Sure, we can do it... but why should we? If you have a theory that disproves gravity, the burden is on you to prove it, not for others to keep retracing the obvious.

 

ANYWAY... back on topic... the only point I was making... whether you believe inflation is 2% or 200%... is that it is at least some factor when determining price escalations, INCLUDING collectibles. A book that hasn't risen in 5 or 10 years, has in reality actually fallen in price. A book that rises must rise above the rate of inflation (whatever it is) to show an actual increase in collector interest. That is all.

[Hamlet]

 

Your example above is actually a great illustration of what's wrong with CPI. The cost of steak goes up and up. Finally, a household gives up and quits buying steak, switching to cheaper hamburger instead. The CPI looks at this and determines that people are spending less on beef now than before. The CPI goes down. The media announces that CPI is down, therefore inflation is down. But it's inflation that caused the change in behavior which caused the CPI to report less beef-spending in the first place!

 

I won't post site-links for 3 reasons...

 

(A) I've already caused too much thread derailment.

 

(B) Even though economics in and of itself is entirely different than politics, it won't be the first time the two have been conflated on this Board. I've never gotten a thread locked, and I don't intend to now.

 

© Even if the above two weren't an issue, I still wouldn't be inclined to do so. And I seriously mean this without intending offense... but in 20 years or more I don't know of anyone that takes the CPI seriously outside of certain government jobs tied directly to benefitting from the use of that index, or news reporters who can't count their own pocket change let alone understand economics issues. You're the one with an unusual argument demanding that others provide you with scientific evidence that the sky appears blue. Sure, we can do it... but why should we? If you have a theory that disproves gravity, the burden is on you to prove it, not for others to keep retracing the obvious.

 

ANYWAY... back on topic... the only point I was making... whether you believe inflation is 2% or 200%... is that it is at least some factor when determining price escalations, INCLUDING collectibles. A book that hasn't risen in 5 or 10 years, has in reality actually fallen in price. A book that rises must rise above the rate of inflation (whatever it is) to show an actual increase in collector interest. That is all.

 

I agree that it probably isn't useful to discuss this further here. I just find it a little strange that everyone dismisses CPI with a sneer, when it is really the only serious attempt out there to quantify inflation that actually shows its work. They go into detail about what weighting they give each category, when they change the categories and why. No one else I've seen does anything even remotely useful to quantifying inflation with any kind of transparency. Is it perfect? Nope. Is it better than anything else I've seen? Yup.

 

MIT has an index that appears to track CPI pretty closely, but they don't provide details of their index online, so it really isn't useful--

 

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

 

Likewise for Shadowstats, who's numbers defy basic logic when you extrapolate them out for a large number of years. He shows no work, so it doesn't serve any purpose. He can say inflation is 8%/year. I can say its 50%/year with as much credibility.

 

I'd love for someone to PM me a link to any serious attempt to track inflation that shows their work.

 

Note that the BLS specifically points out that your example of substituting hamburger for steak is not the case. It is probably worth reading their Common Misconceptions page--

 

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiqa.htm

 

[Sqeggs]

Give me a real non-kook site that has real data that shows inflation has been a lot higher than 2-3%/year since the financial crisis. Look back at many consumer prices, and you see things were awfully pricey already in 2007/2008. They crashed during the crisis, and are now somewhat higher than they were in 2007/2008, but not dramatically so.

 

Anytime someone actually sits down and tries to truly measure inflation, they end up in the ballpark of CPI, or they pick a spending basket that is not representative of the general population.

 

How many McDonald's chicken sandwiches (zero inflation for like a decade) get eaten for every Ribeye steak (high inflation)? The basket of goods you use to measure inflation needs to reflect the general population's spending.

 

Your example above is actually a great illustration of what's wrong with CPI. The cost of steak goes up and up. Finally, a household gives up and quits buying steak, switching to cheaper hamburger instead. The CPI looks at this and determines that people are spending less on beef now than before. The CPI goes down. The media announces that CPI is down, therefore inflation is down. But it's inflation that caused the change in behavior which caused the CPI to report less beef-spending in the first place!

 

I won't post site-links for 3 reasons...

 

(A) I've already caused too much thread derailment.

 

(B) Even though economics in and of itself is entirely different than politics, it won't be the first time the two have been conflated on this Board. I've never gotten a thread locked, and I don't intend to now.

 

© Even if the above two weren't an issue, I still wouldn't be inclined to do so. And I seriously mean this without intending offense... but in 20 years or more I don't know of anyone that takes the CPI seriously outside of certain government jobs tied directly to benefitting from the use of that index, or news reporters who can't count their own pocket change let alone understand economics issues. You're the one with an unusual argument demanding that others provide you with scientific evidence that the sky appears blue. Sure, we can do it... but why should we? If you have a theory that disproves gravity, the burden is on you to prove it, not for others to keep retracing the obvious.

 

ANYWAY... back on topic... the only point I was making... whether you believe inflation is 2% or 200%... is that it is at least some factor when determining price escalations, INCLUDING collectibles. A book that hasn't risen in 5 or 10 years, has in reality actually fallen in price. A book that rises must rise above the rate of inflation (whatever it is) to show an actual increase in collector interest. That is all.

 

Hamlet is right on this one. The CPI measures inflation quite well as it affects the average person. If you aren't average -- you have large medical expenses or for some other reason you buy a mix of goods different than the goods in the CPI market basket -- then the measure may be off in terms of the prices you see.

 

I think the CPI deniers have to take one of two positions:

 

1. Inflation is impossible to measure

 

or

 

2. Inflation can be measured but the government refuses to measure it properly for political reasons.

 

Evidence against position 1. is that over the long run, other measures of the price level, such as the CPI minus food and energy prices or the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), give about the same results as the CPI. There is value in having a measure of changes in an average of the prices of the goods and services the typical person buys and the CPI does that about as well as it can be done.

 

Or to return to Hamlet's point, there is no other plausible measure of changes in average prices that gives a much different result. The inflation rate may not have been exactly 1.6% last year, but it wasn't 5% or 10% or 20% or whatever number people want to pull out of a hat based on increases in the price of this or that particular thing they buy.

 

With respect to position 2., how plausible is it that the career civil servants who calculate the CPI would have been cooking the books all of these years without any of them spilling the beans? It would be an enormous news story if there was any truth to it. Which there isn't.

 

 

[the blob]

man, now i want a nice steak. although a nice juicy hamburger would be good too.

[Hamlet]

man, now i want a nice steak. although a nice juicy hamburger would be good too.

 

Don't eat the hamburger, or the BLS will just use it as an excuse to claim inflation is lower than it really is.

[the blob]

but i can't afford steak.

[Hamlet]

I recommend the inflation-defying McChicken sandwich. Still one dollar after all these years, as long as you don't factor in the additional health insurance costs it will cause you.

 

We've had to start paying a little more for the double cheeseburger, but they somehow manage to keep cranking out that McChicken for a dollar. I avoid watching Soilent Green when eating one.

 

Whatever you do, don't let them pawn that McDouble thing with only one slice of cheese on you. That is not a double cheeseburger.

 

but i can't afford steak.

[CBT]

While it wasnt started out that way, the CPI is a tool. A tool to control perceptions, and to keep obligations tied to inflation as manageable as possible.

 

Ad hominem attacks cant change the truth, the CPI, unemployement, housing, etc are all extremely massaged, controlled, and managed.

 

That doesnt mean there isnt still value or useful information in it, you just need to not take it at face value, and be aware of the hedonically, seasonally adjusted, revised after the fact, etc nature of them

[vaillant]

I don’t know what’s the CPI but I could never eat hamburgers…

[Sqeggs]

While it wasnt started out that way, the CPI is a tool. A tool to control perceptions, and to keep obligations tied to inflation as manageable as possible.

 

Ad hominem attacks cant change the truth, the CPI, unemployement, housing, etc are all extremely massaged, controlled, and managed.

 

That doesnt mean there isnt still value or useful information in it, you just need to not take it at face value, and be aware of the hedonically, seasonally adjusted, revised after the fact, etc nature of them

 

Not to drag this out, but these statements are simply untrue. If this were happening, wouldn't one of the many people who have worked for the BLS through the decades -- during Dem. and Rep. administrations -- have mentioned it somewhere? Wouldn't someone have said, "Well, we would really rather measure inflation (or unemployment or whatever) another way, but we aren't allowed to for political reasons"?

 

To believe your statements is to believe that there is an enormous conspiracy underway that has persisted for decades.

 

The government statistics are as accurate as the career civil servants who calculate them can make them, subject, of course, to the budgets they have available to them.

[the blob]

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/03/was_the_calcula.html

 

The way CPI is calculated changed in the 90's. Whether it was done the right way is open to debate. Comments in the link discuss the "substitution" point. Are prices really flat if let's say the average family spends $150 a week on groceries, but they are only doing so by substituting steak they could once afford with chuck, eating a lot of spaghetti and sauce rather than vegetables, canned food over fresh, etc. I still buy my kids boneless chicken breast, but the "all natural" stuff from the nice supermarket is now $5.99 a pound rather than the $3.99 a pound it used to be, so I just buy whatever krap is on sale because I am a terrible parent.

 

OTOH, markets and buying patterns do change over time and that ought to be reflected too.

 

This all started because someone thought geezers on social security were making out like bandits and needed their yearly COLAs cut. Ditto government pensioners an so on.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I recommend the inflation-defying McChicken sandwich. Still one dollar after all these years, as long as you don't factor in the additional health insurance costs it will cause you.

 

We've had to start paying a little more for the double cheeseburger, but they somehow manage to keep cranking out that McChicken for a dollar. I avoid watching Soilent Green when eating one.

 

Whatever you do, don't let them pawn that McDouble thing with only one slice of cheese on you. That is not a double cheeseburger.

 

but i can't afford steak.

 

Sigh.

 

The corporate food trick has been to decrease the portion size, while maintaining the price, to make it appear as if the price hasn't gone up.

 

In the 2000's and prior, nearly every ice cream manufacturer sold ice cream in half gallon sizes (64 fluid oz.)

 

Since 2007 or so, almost all the manufacturers have reduced the size of the containers to 1.75 quarts (56 fluid oz.) or worse, 1.5 quarts (48 fluid oz.)

 

Same price.

 

While there are a few who have held the half gallon size, you now have to look for them.

 

I know you know this, Hamlet, but less quantity for the same price is a price hike.

 

And the exact same thing has happened at Big Food, along with other neato tricks (fillers) to convince people that they are getting the same thing, for the same price. Look at a Big Mac lately....?

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

Give me a real non-kook site that has real data that shows inflation has been a lot higher than 2-3%/year since the financial crisis. Look back at many consumer prices, and you see things were awfully pricey already in 2007/2008. They crashed during the crisis, and are now somewhat higher than they were in 2007/2008, but not dramatically so.

 

Anytime someone actually sits down and tries to truly measure inflation, they end up in the ballpark of CPI, or they pick a spending basket that is not representative of the general population.

 

How many McDonald's chicken sandwiches (zero inflation for like a decade) get eaten for every Ribeye steak (high inflation)? The basket of goods you use to measure inflation needs to reflect the general population's spending.

 

Your example above is actually a great illustration of what's wrong with CPI. The cost of steak goes up and up. Finally, a household gives up and quits buying steak, switching to cheaper hamburger instead. The CPI looks at this and determines that people are spending less on beef now than before. The CPI goes down. The media announces that CPI is down, therefore inflation is down. But it's inflation that caused the change in behavior which caused the CPI to report less beef-spending in the first place!

 

I won't post site-links for 3 reasons...

 

(A) I've already caused too much thread derailment.

 

(B) Even though economics in and of itself is entirely different than politics, it won't be the first time the two have been conflated on this Board. I've never gotten a thread locked, and I don't intend to now.

 

© Even if the above two weren't an issue, I still wouldn't be inclined to do so. And I seriously mean this without intending offense... but in 20 years or more I don't know of anyone that takes the CPI seriously outside of certain government jobs tied directly to benefitting from the use of that index, or news reporters who can't count their own pocket change let alone understand economics issues. You're the one with an unusual argument demanding that others provide you with scientific evidence that the sky appears blue. Sure, we can do it... but why should we? If you have a theory that disproves gravity, the burden is on you to prove it, not for others to keep retracing the obvious.

 

ANYWAY... back on topic... the only point I was making... whether you believe inflation is 2% or 200%... is that it is at least some factor when determining price escalations, INCLUDING collectibles. A book that hasn't risen in 5 or 10 years, has in reality actually fallen in price. A book that rises must rise above the rate of inflation (whatever it is) to show an actual increase in collector interest. That is all.

Agreed.

[Badger]

I recommend the inflation-defying McChicken sandwich. Still one dollar after all these years, as long as you don't factor in the additional health insurance costs it will cause you.

 

We've had to start paying a little more for the double cheeseburger, but they somehow manage to keep cranking out that McChicken for a dollar. I avoid watching Soilent Green when eating one.

 

Whatever you do, don't let them pawn that McDouble thing with only one slice of cheese on you. That is not a double cheeseburger.

 

but i can't afford steak.

 

Sigh.

 

The corporate food trick has been to decrease the portion size, while maintaining the price, to make it appear as if the price hasn't gone up.

 

In the 2000's and prior, nearly every ice cream manufacturer sold ice cream in half gallon sizes (64 fluid oz.)

 

Since 2007 or so, almost all the manufacturers have reduced the size of the containers to 1.75 quarts (56 fluid oz.) or worse, 1.5 quarts (48 fluid oz.)

 

Same price.

 

While there are a few who have held the half gallon size, you now have to look for them.

 

I know you know this, Hamlet, but less quantity for the same price is a price hike.

 

And the exact same thing has happened at Big Food, along with other neato tricks (fillers) to convince people that they are getting the same thing, for the same price. Look at a Big Mac lately....?

 

CPI does not measure cost per Big Mac or McChicken; it measures cost per ounce(gram) of meat, flour, etc. Corporate tricks on size only work on the unsavy consumer not the CPI. Please see:

 

http://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/AverageRetailFoodAndEnergyPrices_USandMidwest_Table.htm

 

for proof.

[CBT]

I don’t know what’s the CPI but I could never eat hamburgers…

 

My dad was born in Italy, and he enjoys them, you just need to have a good one

[rjpb]

 

Your example above is actually a great illustration of what's wrong with CPI. The cost of steak goes up and up. Finally, a household gives up and quits buying steak, switching to cheaper hamburger instead. The CPI looks at this and determines that people are spending less on beef now than before. The CPI goes down. The media announces that CPI is down, therefore inflation is down. But it's inflation that caused the change in behavior which caused the CPI to report less beef-spending in the first place!

 

 

That would be an example of Chained CPI, and not the index currently used to calculate things like COLAs for Social Security. Not that there aren't those in Washington that would like it to be.

[comix4fun]

My goodness