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If the crash comes...

Started by RockMyAmadeus,

467 posts in this topic

mysterio

mysterio

Posted
Posted
All it will take is a 2-3 comic book movies in a row to under-perform to put the brakes on the genre for the following 5 years.

 

Recall that Superman Returns was considered a financial failure at $200 mill. domestic & nearly $400 cumulative.

 

I hope 20 years from now we're not looking back at 2014 as the high-water mark for comic films, with a streak of such huge critical and financial winners in Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, Big Hero 6, Days of Future Past that 20+ more superhero films got green-lit for the next six years.

 

I'm not sure if 2-3 underperforming comic movies in a row will be enough. I think it would take major flops of several characters, at least. So far, we're averaging about one per year, according to Box Office Mojo:

 

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (2014) - $13 mil profit

Ghost Rider: Spirits of Vengeance (2012) - $51 mil profit

Dredd (2012) - $13 mil profit

Green Lantern (2011) - $116 mil profit

Jonah Hex (2010) - $10 mil profit

Losers (2010) - $23 mil profit

Punisher War Zone (2008) - $8 mil profit

Superman Returns (2006) - $200 mil profit

Elektra (2005) - $24 mil profit

Catwoman (2004) - $40 mil profit

 

And that's just major properties, not counting low-returns like Whiteout, RIPD, Surrogates, or Cowboys & Aliens.

 

I call it underperforming if it doesn't double its budget. Each movie is intended to fund the next movie, so just breaking even doesn't cut it.

 

Granted, none of these are examples from the "Marvel Cinematic Universe," per se, but neither are the in-development Suicide Squad and Teen Titans shows, so that can't be a factor.

 

None of those flops were heavily speculated upon or saw huge price increases off of those releases (and the two most recent were sequels, so movie hype was sort of baked into the existing prices). If something like Ant-man or Dawn of Justice is a big flop that could create a ripple effect on some of the spec books.

 

I have often wondered if Batman vs. Superman or Suicide Squad end up being a flop if that would really affect any of the Marvel properties or the speculation surrounding them. I think that many anticipate that the DC movies will continue to be bad, so expectations are low, whereas it is just the opposite with the MCU. If a Marvel film does poorly that could very well signal the wheels coming off of the wagon. Of course, Suicide Squad is one of the DC properties that has seen serious price spikes, so it could impact the overall spec market on the movie books.

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the blob

the blob

Posted
Posted

Dredd (2012) - $13 mil profit

......

Losers (2010) - $23 mil profit

 

---------------

 

I am thinking that 90-95% of the people who saw those two movies had never read the comics and probably didn't even know they had to do with comics. I will assume most just figured Dredd was a remake of the Stallone movie. And Losers...weren't the losers in the comic in WW II or did DC do a modern version too? only loosely related to the comic.

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JTLarsen

JTLarsen

Posted
Posted
All it will take is a 2-3 comic book movies in a row to under-perform to put the brakes on the genre for the following 5 years.

 

Recall that Superman Returns was considered a financial failure at $200 mill. domestic & nearly $400 cumulative.

 

I hope 20 years from now we're not looking back at 2014 as the high-water mark for comic films, with a streak of such huge critical and financial winners in Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, Big Hero 6, Days of Future Past that 20+ more superhero films got green-lit for the next six years.

 

I'm not sure if 2-3 underperforming comic movies in a row will be enough. I think it would take major flops of several characters, at least. So far, we're averaging about one per year, according to Box Office Mojo:

 

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (2014) - $13 mil profit

Ghost Rider: Spirits of Vengeance (2012) - $51 mil profit

Dredd (2012) - $13 mil profit

Green Lantern (2011) - $116 mil profit

Jonah Hex (2010) - $10 mil profit

Losers (2010) - $23 mil profit

Punisher War Zone (2008) - $8 mil profit

Superman Returns (2006) - $200 mil profit

Elektra (2005) - $24 mil profit

Catwoman (2004) - $40 mil profit

 

And that's just major properties, not counting low-returns like Whiteout, RIPD, Surrogates, or Cowboys & Aliens.

 

I call it underperforming if it doesn't double its budget. Each movie is intended to fund the next movie, so just breaking even doesn't cut it.

 

Granted, none of these are examples from the "Marvel Cinematic Universe," per se, but neither are the in-development Suicide Squad and Teen Titans shows, so that can't be a factor.

 

Profit? Really?

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Gatsby77

Gatsby77

Posted
Posted

Um...Jonah Hex was speculated upon, as were the Green Lantern keys (particularly Showcase 22 & GL # 7).

 

All Star Western # 10 in CGC 9.4 goes for $850-$900 today, vs. an average of $1,400 back in 2009 in the pre-movie hype days. (-37.5%)

 

In CGC 9.0 it goes for an avg. of $460 today, vs. $575 in 2009. (-20%)

 

Green Lantern # 7 in CGC 8.0 is down 47% since 2010, from $2,000 to $1,050.

 

In CGC 8.5 it peaked at $2,500 in 2011, vs. an average today of under $1,400 (-44%).

 

Bad movies directly affect value on the secondary collectors market.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
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Posted

 

I call it underperforming if it doesn't double its budget. Each movie is intended to fund the next movie, so just breaking even doesn't cut it.

 

Movies MUST at least double their budget, or they will not just be underperforming...they will be a loss.

 

"Box office gross" is just that: what is sold in tickets. Theatres and theatre chains typically take 50% of that number, to show the films.

 

That leaves 50% for production and advertising.

 

The vast, vast majority of films do not begin to see a profit until their production budget is doubled.

 

A movie is a substantial loss if the box office only matches the cost of production, because the studios only see half of the box office, typically.

 

A film that cost $200 Million to make will need a box office of $400 million just to "break even."

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JTLarsen

JTLarsen

Posted
Posted
Um...Jonah Hex was speculated upon, as were the Green Lantern keys (particularly Showcase 22 & GL # 7).

 

All Star Western # 10 in CGC 9.4 goes for $850-$900 today, vs. an average of $1,400 back in 2009 in the pre-movie hype days. (-37.5%)

 

In CGC 9.0 it goes for an avg. of $460 today, vs. $575 in 2009. (-20%)

 

Green Lantern # 7 in CGC 8.0 is down 47% since 2010, from $2,000 to $1,050.

 

In CGC 8.5 it peaked at $2,500 in 2011, vs. an average today of under $1,400 (-44%).

 

Bad movies directly affect value on the secondary collectors market.

 

I think a lot of books with no movie speculation peaked around then in CGC high grades. It'd be interesting to see if movie-related books suffered worse, but without more data it doesn't seem to me that you've established causality here.

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natevegas

natevegas

Posted
Posted

 

I call it underperforming if it doesn't double its budget. Each movie is intended to fund the next movie, so just breaking even doesn't cut it.

 

Movies MUST at least double their budget, or they will not just be underperforming...they will be a loss.

 

"Box office gross" is just that: what is sold in tickets. Theatres and theatre chains typically take 50% of that number, to show the films.

 

That leaves 50% for production and advertising.

 

The vast, vast majority of films do not begin to see a profit until their production budget is doubled.

 

A movie is a substantial loss if the box office only matches the cost of production, because the studios only see half of the box office, typically.

 

A film that cost $200 Million to make will need a box office of $400 million just to "break even."

Don't forget DVD & Blue-Ray + Pay per streaming revenue as well. Its not just ticket sales anymore.

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Gatsby77

Gatsby77

Posted
Posted
Um...Jonah Hex was speculated upon, as were the Green Lantern keys (particularly Showcase 22 & GL # 7).

 

All Star Western # 10 in CGC 9.4 goes for $850-$900 today, vs. an average of $1,400 back in 2009 in the pre-movie hype days. (-37.5%)

 

In CGC 9.0 it goes for an avg. of $460 today, vs. $575 in 2009. (-20%)

 

Green Lantern # 7 in CGC 8.0 is down 47% since 2010, from $2,000 to $1,050.

 

In CGC 8.5 it peaked at $2,500 in 2011, vs. an average today of under $1,400 (-44%).

 

Bad movies directly affect value on the secondary collectors market.

 

I think a lot of books with no movie speculation peaked around then in CGC high grades. It'd be interesting to see if movie-related books suffered worse, but without more data it doesn't seem to me that you've established causality here.

 

These weren't Bronze CGC peak-specific.

 

Were you actively collecting then? Going to shows? Selling at shows?

 

Green Lantern & Jonah Hex were uber-hot the year before their respective movie releases, _because_ of the pre-movie release speculation.

 

Especially because (in the case of Green Lantern) folks saw what had happened to Tales of Suspense 39 & Iron Man 1 with that movie.

 

Granted, I didn't see much speculation related to Punisher War Zone or Ghost Rider 2, but there was tons prior to the first Ghost Rider film (& the rumored John Singleton-directed Luke Cage movie around the same time) and prior to the Thomas Jane Punisher film as well.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

I call it underperforming if it doesn't double its budget. Each movie is intended to fund the next movie, so just breaking even doesn't cut it.

 

Movies MUST at least double their budget, or they will not just be underperforming...they will be a loss.

 

"Box office gross" is just that: what is sold in tickets. Theatres and theatre chains typically take 50% of that number, to show the films.

 

That leaves 50% for production and advertising.

 

The vast, vast majority of films do not begin to see a profit until their production budget is doubled.

 

A movie is a substantial loss if the box office only matches the cost of production, because the studios only see half of the box office, typically.

 

A film that cost $200 Million to make will need a box office of $400 million just to "break even."

Don't forget DVD & Blue-Ray + Pay per streaming revenue as well. Its not just ticket sales anymore.

 

No, and it hasn't been since the 80's...

 

However...it's incredibly difficult to make forecasts based on those sales, so they aren't generally counted in projections...at least until after the initial theatrical run.

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the authority

the authority

Posted
Posted
Dredd ruled.

Some great scenes in that movie, and I can look at Lena Headey all day.

 

She was also Sarah Conner in the short lived Terminator TV show.

 

Yep. If you watch 300 for no other reason... :cloud9:

 

I liked Dredd too. Over the top can be lots of fun with a little imagination. (thumbs u

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thehumantorch

thehumantorch

Posted
Posted

 

I call it underperforming if it doesn't double its budget. Each movie is intended to fund the next movie, so just breaking even doesn't cut it.

 

Movies MUST at least double their budget, or they will not just be underperforming...they will be a loss.

 

"Box office gross" is just that: what is sold in tickets. Theatres and theatre chains typically take 50% of that number, to show the films.

 

That leaves 50% for production and advertising.

 

The vast, vast majority of films do not begin to see a profit until their production budget is doubled.

 

A movie is a substantial loss if the box office only matches the cost of production, because the studios only see half of the box office, typically.

 

A film that cost $200 Million to make will need a box office of $400 million just to "break even."

Don't forget DVD & Blue-Ray + Pay per streaming revenue as well. Its not just ticket sales anymore.

 

And toys and collector cups and all the other licensed items. And cable reruns for years.

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JTLarsen

JTLarsen

Posted
Posted
Um...Jonah Hex was speculated upon, as were the Green Lantern keys (particularly Showcase 22 & GL # 7).

 

All Star Western # 10 in CGC 9.4 goes for $850-$900 today, vs. an average of $1,400 back in 2009 in the pre-movie hype days. (-37.5%)

 

In CGC 9.0 it goes for an avg. of $460 today, vs. $575 in 2009. (-20%)

 

Green Lantern # 7 in CGC 8.0 is down 47% since 2010, from $2,000 to $1,050.

 

In CGC 8.5 it peaked at $2,500 in 2011, vs. an average today of under $1,400 (-44%).

 

Bad movies directly affect value on the secondary collectors market.

 

I think a lot of books with no movie speculation peaked around then in CGC high grades. It'd be interesting to see if movie-related books suffered worse, but without more data it doesn't seem to me that you've established causality here.

 

These weren't Bronze CGC peak-specific.

 

Were you actively collecting then? Going to shows? Selling at shows?

 

Green Lantern & Jonah Hex were uber-hot the year before their respective movie releases, _because_ of the pre-movie release speculation.

 

Especially because (in the case of Green Lantern) folks saw what had happened to Tales of Suspense 39 & Iron Man 1 with that movie.

 

Granted, I didn't see much speculation related to Punisher War Zone or Ghost Rider 2, but there was tons prior to the first Ghost Rider film (& the rumored John Singleton-directed Luke Cage movie around the same time) and prior to the Thomas Jane Punisher film as well.

 

No, I wasn't selling at shows. And, yes, I remember that Green Lantern and Jonah Hex were hot. Sorry, "uber-hot," to use your expert terminology. And, yes, movie anticipation drove up prices. My point was that I think we also saw, around the same time, spikes in non-movie, high-grade CGC books. Without comparing movie books to non-movie books, you haven't established causality, let alone what portion of causality. Or, to put it in your terms: Were you actively studying statistics then?

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Prince Namor

Prince Namor

Posted
Posted
Um...Jonah Hex was speculated upon, as were the Green Lantern keys (particularly Showcase 22 & GL # 7).

 

All Star Western # 10 in CGC 9.4 goes for $850-$900 today, vs. an average of $1,400 back in 2009 in the pre-movie hype days. (-37.5%)

 

In CGC 9.0 it goes for an avg. of $460 today, vs. $575 in 2009. (-20%)

 

Green Lantern # 7 in CGC 8.0 is down 47% since 2010, from $2,000 to $1,050.

 

In CGC 8.5 it peaked at $2,500 in 2011, vs. an average today of under $1,400 (-44%).

 

Bad movies directly affect value on the secondary collectors market.

 

I think a lot of books with no movie speculation peaked around then in CGC high grades. It'd be interesting to see if movie-related books suffered worse, but without more data it doesn't seem to me that you've established causality here.

 

These weren't Bronze CGC peak-specific.

 

Were you actively collecting then? Going to shows? Selling at shows?

 

Green Lantern & Jonah Hex were uber-hot the year before their respective movie releases, _because_ of the pre-movie release speculation.

 

Especially because (in the case of Green Lantern) folks saw what had happened to Tales of Suspense 39 & Iron Man 1 with that movie.

 

Granted, I didn't see much speculation related to Punisher War Zone or Ghost Rider 2, but there was tons prior to the first Ghost Rider film (& the rumored John Singleton-directed Luke Cage movie around the same time) and prior to the Thomas Jane Punisher film as well.

 

No, I wasn't selling at shows. And, yes, I remember that Green Lantern and Jonah Hex were hot. Sorry, "uber-hot," to use your expert terminology. And, yes, movie anticipation drove up prices. My point was that I think we also saw, around the same time, spikes in non-movie, high-grade CGC books. Without comparing movie books to non-movie books, you haven't established causality, let alone what portion of causality. Or, to put it in your terms: Were you actively studying statistics then?

 

I bought and sold those books at the time and both got hot due to the movie. Green Lantern even saw a slight surge in #76 that cooled off immediately after the movie ended. I mean come on... All Star Western #10? Mainly Western collectors went after that book and then suddenly everyone wanted one because of the movie. Now, nobody much asks about it.

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Gatsby77

Gatsby77

Posted
Posted
Um...Jonah Hex was speculated upon, as were the Green Lantern keys (particularly Showcase 22 & GL # 7).

 

All Star Western # 10 in CGC 9.4 goes for $850-$900 today, vs. an average of $1,400 back in 2009 in the pre-movie hype days. (-37.5%)

 

In CGC 9.0 it goes for an avg. of $460 today, vs. $575 in 2009. (-20%)

 

Green Lantern # 7 in CGC 8.0 is down 47% since 2010, from $2,000 to $1,050.

 

In CGC 8.5 it peaked at $2,500 in 2011, vs. an average today of under $1,400 (-44%).

 

Bad movies directly affect value on the secondary collectors market.

 

I think a lot of books with no movie speculation peaked around then in CGC high grades. It'd be interesting to see if movie-related books suffered worse, but without more data it doesn't seem to me that you've established causality here.

 

These weren't Bronze CGC peak-specific.

 

Were you actively collecting then? Going to shows? Selling at shows?

 

Green Lantern & Jonah Hex were uber-hot the year before their respective movie releases, _because_ of the pre-movie release speculation.

 

Especially because (in the case of Green Lantern) folks saw what had happened to Tales of Suspense 39 & Iron Man 1 with that movie.

 

Granted, I didn't see much speculation related to Punisher War Zone or Ghost Rider 2, but there was tons prior to the first Ghost Rider film (& the rumored John Singleton-directed Luke Cage movie around the same time) and prior to the Thomas Jane Punisher film as well.

 

No, I wasn't selling at shows. And, yes, I remember that Green Lantern and Jonah Hex were hot. Sorry, "uber-hot," to use your expert terminology. And, yes, movie anticipation drove up prices. My point was that I think we also saw, around the same time, spikes in non-movie, high-grade CGC books. Without comparing movie books to non-movie books, you haven't established causality, let alone what portion of causality. Or, to put it in your terms: Were you actively studying statistics then?

 

Ok.

 

1) Why yes, ironically -- I was actively studying statistics then -- took a wonderful graduate class in applied stats / data modeling in spring 2010 -- it was a fun capstone to my three undergrad stats classes.

 

2) You raised a fair point and yes -- my quick survey of Bronze keys like Detective 400, Conan 1, Marvel Spotlight 5 & Hero For Hire 1 (proxies for the Bronze CGC bubble) all peaked from Aug. 2008-Sept. 2009.

 

That's particularly relevant because Conan 1 in 9.8 didn't even make those gains back in the later run-up to the 2011 movie.

 

But while that CGC bronze peak might apply to ASW 10 due to the movie hype & natural bubble cresting at the same time, it doesn't apply to Green Lantern keys, which peaked a good year to year and half after high-grade Bronze books as a whole.

 

Why?

 

Movie hype.

 

Either way -- my original point stands -- there was just as much pre-movie speculation with key Jonah Hex & Green Lantern books prior to their movies as we see today.

 

Ditto with ASM 300 before Spider-Man 3, Daredevil 168 before the Elektra movie, Marvel Spotlight 5 before the first Ghost Rider movie, Watchmen books before that film, etc.

 

The market is incredibly predictable in this way.

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