Are key comics good investments?

[Mmehdy]

Rock you might win the short term profit wise but the whole comic boob collecting world is going to suffer unless these crazy $725 prices for 2/10th a grading difference like you got stop.

 

You can tell the market what to do, but if the market isn't interested in listening, it won't do any good.

 

The market only cares about the number and color of the label. Beyond that, it really doesn't matter, generally.

 

Until the market wakes up and realizes that there is little to no difference between an average 9.6 and an average 9.8, this madness will not stop.

 

It's all about the number on the label.

 

It hasn't made any difference in coins for just about 30 years; why should it make a difference in comics? You can buy an MS64 1886-O Morgan dollar for $10,000...or an MS65 for $150,000, IF you can find one.

 

The difference is nothing more than, say, a single 1/8" scuff on Miss Liberty's chin, something only the most advanced graders would notice.

 

But that number on the label is all that matters.

 

 

 

Rock: the problem is the Difference in the prices as well as this insane 4K- to 12K prices rises....If you pay 12K for a 4k book two years ago...you are never gonna get to 36K in two years using the same price appreciation level.

 

It is not the label, its the market that needs correction, Just because somebody pays a stupid price at a auction that it means that is the actual market value. Now the auction house would have you believe that...but two bidders do not create actual value.

 

That is the myth created by "what you pay" is what its worth no matter what the price....is gonna blow up in buyers faces when demand subsides. What two top bidders on Ha. or CC pay is not reality....you in reality are paying the highest price in the world. Value to me means some type of recover other than a 20% loss right off the part for auction house fees. Which means when you pay 12K for the 4K book...just to break even you will need14,400 plus shipping costs. to put your book back the world stage...GOOD LUCK

 

I don't think you're quite understanding what I've said, but no matter.

 

I completely agree with you in this aspect: the market has gone into madness mode, and really can't sustain this. $5800 for a 9.2 FF #45? Madness.

 

However...that doesn't mean that everything has to be bought...or, indeed, IS bought...with an eye towards "making money on it."

 

These are still ephemera, regardless of how much people are willing to pay for them (or unwilling pay for them), and there are still many people who buy them and count the money as gone, as much as if it was a vacation or other purchase made where the money simply vanishes into thin air.

 

There are other, often far more satisfying, benefits to purchase than simple investment potential.

 

You say "two bidders do not create actual value"...well, what does? This is old paper; it has no intrinsic value beyond 10-20 minutes of entertainment. All the value of these items beyond entertainment value is made up, fictional, it doesn't exist, except at the moment of purchase. If two people can agree that this item has this value at this particular moment in time...that's what it is worth, to the person handing over the money. Will it be worth that....or more...in 5 minutes, 5 months, 5 years, or 5 decades? Who knows? But at that single moment of time, it WAS worth that to the person who bought it. Everything else is just wind.

 

Good point Rock...what does create value? Rarity coupled with demand....we have ask ourselves how did we get here from the simple collecting world of the 70's and 80's...how did we arrive at multi-million dollars prices...was it because the actual value increased...or was it as Rock has put it "the wind or hype".

 

This market is not a healthly sustaining market but one as (another board member called it) "Schizophrenic ". Dangerous times...the real question is HOW DID WE GET TO THIS POINT...and how we can avoid it in the future...any suggestions??

[RockMyAmadeus]

Rock you might win the short term profit wise but the whole comic boob collecting world is going to suffer unless these crazy $725 prices for 2/10th a grading difference like you got stop.

 

You can tell the market what to do, but if the market isn't interested in listening, it won't do any good.

 

The market only cares about the number and color of the label. Beyond that, it really doesn't matter, generally.

 

Until the market wakes up and realizes that there is little to no difference between an average 9.6 and an average 9.8, this madness will not stop.

 

It's all about the number on the label.

 

It hasn't made any difference in coins for just about 30 years; why should it make a difference in comics? You can buy an MS64 1886-O Morgan dollar for $10,000...or an MS65 for $150,000, IF you can find one.

 

The difference is nothing more than, say, a single 1/8" scuff on Miss Liberty's chin, something only the most advanced graders would notice.

 

But that number on the label is all that matters.

 

 

 

Rock: the problem is the Difference in the prices as well as this insane 4K- to 12K prices rises....If you pay 12K for a 4k book two years ago...you are never gonna get to 36K in two years using the same price appreciation level.

 

It is not the label, its the market that needs correction, Just because somebody pays a stupid price at a auction that it means that is the actual market value. Now the auction house would have you believe that...but two bidders do not create actual value.

 

That is the myth created by "what you pay" is what its worth no matter what the price....is gonna blow up in buyers faces when demand subsides. What two top bidders on Ha. or CC pay is not reality....you in reality are paying the highest price in the world. Value to me means some type of recover other than a 20% loss right off the part for auction house fees. Which means when you pay 12K for the 4K book...just to break even you will need14,400 plus shipping costs. to put your book back the world stage...GOOD LUCK

 

Just to chime in quickly re: the coins, there's a world of difference between most MS-64 Morgan Dollars and most MS-65 ones. Looking through a small quantity, you'd be able to discern the difference in quality easily enough, once you had enough experience. Like anything collectible, you might think your VF++ EC comic couldn't look any better, until you see a Gaines file copy in 9.8 for the first time to compare it with, and say "oh; so that's the difference."

 

There is no "world of difference" between "most" MS64 coins and MS65 coins.

 

There are minute differences that advanced collectors can point out.

 

If you dispute that, that's fine....but the crack and resub game that has been going on for nearly 3 decades now proves that dispute to be without merit. If MS64s weren't routinely regraded 65s...and unfortunately in reverse, as well..it wouldn't happen at all.

 

Crack and resub practices over the years simply means the coin stays a 64, gets properly graded a 65 (it was undergraded to start with), or barely squeaks into a 65 holder and becomes entombed (i.e. it probably didn't deserve to be a 65... grading is just an opinion, after all.) The crack and resub artist looks to take advantage of graders' mistakes. They happen on occasion, you know. But it's most often the case, a coin is the grade it is, for a reason, and stays that way no matter how often you resub.

 

When you get more experience in the coin market, you'll know that there are many tens of thousands, and more, borderline coins that have been resubbed multiple times in hopes for that bump, as well as knowing that, since 1986, there have been various periods of "tight" and "loose" grading (for example, the first generation PCGS "rattler" holders, which many believe are graded far more tightly than most that came after.) Also, you'll be able to identify things which even advanced buyers have trouble with...like hairlines, for example...that preclude the 65 grade, no matter what the rest of the coin looks like.

 

These are things that, with direct experience, you will be able to see more clearly. I would also recommend reading as much as you can about the graded coin market and its history, to fill in whatever knowledge gaps might exist.

 

You seem to be saying that grading is a science (your "grading is an opinion" comment notwithstanding), and that "a coin is the grade it is"...I assure you, that is not the case at all. While there are "grading mistakes" that everyone takes advantage of, the reality is far more basic: even the most experienced and capable graders at NGC and PCGS (and others) can disagree with their own grades on any two given days, and grading standards change ever so slightly over the years.

 

Believe as you wish, but I assure you, there IS a world of difference between most MS-64 dollars and most MS-65 dollars. If you aren't able to discern the differences, you just haven't observed enough coins. It comes with experience.

 

I don't know...you did, after all, try to compare a "VF++" (8.5-9.0) comic to a 9.8, which is quite a difference. That's akin to comparing an MS60 to an MS65 which is, in fact, a real "world of difference." I'm talking about a single grade designation, pluses and stars aside, not several.

 

You're probably right, though. I've only looked at a few million coins since 1982, so I probably need more experience.

 

 

And if you think 64 to 65 is tough -- PCGS now recognizes the half-grade of 64+. That one's a little trickier.

 

The "plus" and "star" designations aren't "half grades." As PCGS founder David Hall said in 2010:

 

"The high end for any particular grade represents the top 30 percent of the scale within a grade and I estimate that the plus designation would apply to approximately 15 percent to 20 percent of the coins within any individual grade."

 

By his words, the plus represents only the top 15 to 20%...not 50%....of the coins within any individual grade.

 

Here's a 64 common date Morgan:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1886-1-Morgan-Dollar-PCGS-MS64-Nice-Original-Color-/331584588109?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4d33fb494d

 

And here's the same date in 65:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1886-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS65-/291487193627?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43ddfd9a1b

 

Main differences can be found on the obverse on Liberty's cheek, and in the open field to the left of the portrait. These are the prime focal areas, and most often spell the difference between MS-63, 64, 65.

 

Yes, it's easy to find what Scott Travers and Jim Halperin call "64C" coins, and compare them to what might be called "65A" coins, and demonstrate that "world of difference."

 

However...that neither negates nor precludes the fact that there are, and have been, thousands and thousands of coins that were 64A coins, and ended up as 65C coins....the letter doesn't matter anymore, so long as the slab says 65.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

You say "two bidders do not create actual value"...well, what does? This is old paper; it has no intrinsic value beyond 10-20 minutes of entertainment. All the value of these items beyond entertainment value is made up, fictional, it doesn't exist, except at the moment of purchase. If two people can agree that this item has this value at this particular moment in time...that's what it is worth, to the person handing over the money. Will it be worth that....or more...in 5 minutes, 5 months, 5 years, or 5 decades? Who knows? But at that single moment of time, it WAS worth that to the person who bought it. Everything else is just wind.

 

Good point Rock...what does create value? Rarity coupled with demand....we have ask ourselves how did we get here from the simple collecting world of the 70's and 80's...how did we arrive at multi-million dollars prices...was it because the actual value increased...or was it as Rock has put it "the wind or hype"

 

I don't think we're communicatiing with each other very well. There is no such thing as "actual value", as if there is some "baseline" value that these things are "really" worth. What they are "really" worth is the amount of entertainment one gets out of them. Everything...every single dime above that value....isn't "actual worth"...it's what everyone has convinced everyone else involved they are "worth."

 

An Action Comics #1 only has value because lots of people want it, and are willing to pay more than the next guy to get it. If no one wanted it, it isn't worth anything. I have things that are much rarer, and much older, than Action Comics #1, that aren't worth $10...because no one wants them but me.

 

This market is not a healthly sustaining market but one as (another board member called it) "Schizophrenic ". Dangerous times...the real question is HOW DID WE GET TO THIS POINT...and how we can avoid it in the future...any suggestions??

 

We got to this point because of the double whammy of certification and tapped cultural entertainment potential (that is, films, TV, etc.)

 

 

[originalisbest]

Rock you might win the short term profit wise but the whole comic boob collecting world is going to suffer unless these crazy $725 prices for 2/10th a grading difference like you got stop.

 

You can tell the market what to do, but if the market isn't interested in listening, it won't do any good.

 

The market only cares about the number and color of the label. Beyond that, it really doesn't matter, generally.

 

Until the market wakes up and realizes that there is little to no difference between an average 9.6 and an average 9.8, this madness will not stop.

 

It's all about the number on the label.

 

It hasn't made any difference in coins for just about 30 years; why should it make a difference in comics? You can buy an MS64 1886-O Morgan dollar for $10,000...or an MS65 for $150,000, IF you can find one.

 

The difference is nothing more than, say, a single 1/8" scuff on Miss Liberty's chin, something only the most advanced graders would notice.

 

But that number on the label is all that matters.

 

 

 

Rock: the problem is the Difference in the prices as well as this insane 4K- to 12K prices rises....If you pay 12K for a 4k book two years ago...you are never gonna get to 36K in two years using the same price appreciation level.

 

It is not the label, its the market that needs correction, Just because somebody pays a stupid price at a auction that it means that is the actual market value. Now the auction house would have you believe that...but two bidders do not create actual value.

 

That is the myth created by "what you pay" is what its worth no matter what the price....is gonna blow up in buyers faces when demand subsides. What two top bidders on Ha. or CC pay is not reality....you in reality are paying the highest price in the world. Value to me means some type of recover other than a 20% loss right off the part for auction house fees. Which means when you pay 12K for the 4K book...just to break even you will need14,400 plus shipping costs. to put your book back the world stage...GOOD LUCK

 

Just to chime in quickly re: the coins, there's a world of difference between most MS-64 Morgan Dollars and most MS-65 ones. Looking through a small quantity, you'd be able to discern the difference in quality easily enough, once you had enough experience. Like anything collectible, you might think your VF++ EC comic couldn't look any better, until you see a Gaines file copy in 9.8 for the first time to compare it with, and say "oh; so that's the difference."

 

There is no "world of difference" between "most" MS64 coins and MS65 coins.

 

There are minute differences that advanced collectors can point out.

 

If you dispute that, that's fine....but the crack and resub game that has been going on for nearly 3 decades now proves that dispute to be without merit. If MS64s weren't routinely regraded 65s...and unfortunately in reverse, as well..it wouldn't happen at all.

 

Crack and resub practices over the years simply means the coin stays a 64, gets properly graded a 65 (it was undergraded to start with), or barely squeaks into a 65 holder and becomes entombed (i.e. it probably didn't deserve to be a 65... grading is just an opinion, after all.) The crack and resub artist looks to take advantage of graders' mistakes. They happen on occasion, you know. But it's most often the case, a coin is the grade it is, for a reason, and stays that way no matter how often you resub.

 

When you get more experience in the coin market, you'll know that there are many tens of thousands, and more, borderline coins that have been resubbed multiple times in hopes for that bump, as well as knowing that, since 1986, there have been various periods of "tight" and "loose" grading (for example, the first generation PCGS "rattler" holders, which many believe are graded far more tightly than most that came after.) Also, you'll be able to identify things which even advanced buyers have trouble with...like hairlines, for example...that preclude the 65 grade, no matter what the rest of the coin looks like.

 

These are things that, with direct experience, you will be able to see more clearly. I would also recommend reading as much as you can about the graded coin market and its history, to fill in whatever knowledge gaps might exist.

 

You seem to be saying that grading is a science (your "grading is an opinion" comment notwithstanding), and that "a coin is the grade it is"...I assure you, that is not the case at all. While there are "grading mistakes" that everyone takes advantage of, the reality is far more basic: even the most experienced and capable graders at NGC and PCGS (and others) can disagree with their own grades on any two given days, and grading standards change ever so slightly over the years.

 

Believe as you wish, but I assure you, there IS a world of difference between most MS-64 dollars and most MS-65 dollars. If you aren't able to discern the differences, you just haven't observed enough coins. It comes with experience.

 

I don't know...you did, after all, try to compare a "VF++" (8.5-9.0) comic to a 9.8, which is quite a difference. That's akin to comparing an MS60 to an MS65 which is, in fact, a real "world of difference." I'm talking about a single grade designation, pluses and stars aside, not several.

 

You're probably right, though. I've only looked at a few million coins since 1982, so I probably need more experience.

 

 

And if you think 64 to 65 is tough -- PCGS now recognizes the half-grade of 64+. That one's a little trickier.

 

The "plus" and "star" designations aren't "half grades." As PCGS founder David Hall said in 2010:

 

"The high end for any particular grade represents the top 30 percent of the scale within a grade and I estimate that the plus designation would apply to approximately 15 percent to 20 percent of the coins within any individual grade."

 

By his words, the plus represents only the top 15 to 20%...not 50%....of the coins within any individual grade.

 

Here's a 64 common date Morgan:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1886-1-Morgan-Dollar-PCGS-MS64-Nice-Original-Color-/331584588109?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4d33fb494d

 

And here's the same date in 65:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1886-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS65-/291487193627?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43ddfd9a1b

 

Main differences can be found on the obverse on Liberty's cheek, and in the open field to the left of the portrait. These are the prime focal areas, and most often spell the difference between MS-63, 64, 65.

 

Yes, it's easy to find what Scott Travers and Jim Halperin call "64C" coins, and compare them to what might be called "65A" coins, and demonstrate that "world of difference."

 

However...that neither negates nor precludes the fact that there are, and have been, thousands and thousands of coins that were 64A coins, and ended up as 65C coins....the letter doesn't matter anymore, so long as the slab says 65.

 

Good lord almighty man, you've been looking at coins since '82? Hooray. You got two years on me (since '84, here.) We're saying pretty much the exact same things I suspect, so I believe I'll let you win this internet argument. Yes indeed, grading is an art, not a science, and is an opinion. In my opinion, the opinion of PCGS is more often in tune with what the marketplace prefers (as far as a "strict grading" definition) vs. NGC.

 

And sorry, all the above said -- it IS easy to discern MS-64 from MS-65 MOST of the time with regard to MORGAN dollars. They are simply one of the easiest US coin series to grade, above all others. Nice and big, easy on the eyes.

 

Buyers (like you and I?) who understand that you buy the coin, not the label, can see that that grading labels aside, there are "very nice" 64's, and "weak" 65's. It's the nature of the grading beast.

 

My EC comic example was comparing VF+++ to 9.8 "just in case" you weren't that familiar with the concept of coin grading. Now that I realize you're a world-reknown expert since '82 (oooh!) I'll amend for you -- it's like comparing 9.4 to 9.8. And yep -- once you've seen enough of them (keep lookin', skippy!) there are marked differences between the two grades/coins/comics/whatever.

 

Good luck out there!

[thunsicker]

 

You say "two bidders do not create actual value"...well, what does? This is old paper; it has no intrinsic value beyond 10-20 minutes of entertainment. All the value of these items beyond entertainment value is made up, fictional, it doesn't exist, except at the moment of purchase. If two people can agree that this item has this value at this particular moment in time...that's what it is worth, to the person handing over the money. Will it be worth that....or more...in 5 minutes, 5 months, 5 years, or 5 decades? Who knows? But at that single moment of time, it WAS worth that to the person who bought it. Everything else is just wind.

 

Good point Rock...what does create value? Rarity coupled with demand....we have ask ourselves how did we get here from the simple collecting world of the 70's and 80's...how did we arrive at multi-million dollars prices...was it because the actual value increased...or was it as Rock has put it "the wind or hype"

 

I don't think we're communicatiing with each other very well. There is no such thing as "actual value", as if there is some "baseline" value that these things are "really" worth. What they are "really" worth is the amount of entertainment one gets out of them. Everything...every single dime above that value....isn't "actual worth"...it's what everyone has convinced everyone else involved they are "worth."

 

An Action Comics #1 only has value because lots of people want it, and are willing to pay more than the next guy to get it. If no one wanted it, it isn't worth anything. I have things that are much rarer, and much older, than Action Comics #1, that aren't worth $10...because no one wants them but me.

 

This market is not a healthly sustaining market but one as (another board member called it) "Schizophrenic ". Dangerous times...the real question is HOW DID WE GET TO THIS POINT...and how we can avoid it in the future...any suggestions??

 

We got to this point because of the double triple whammy of certification and tapped cultural entertainment potential (that is, films, TV, etc.) and the availability the internet auction houses gave us.

 

 

FTFY

 

 

EDIT: As far as how to avoid it in the future? One thing I've considered it to drop my GPA subscription. Figure out what I'd pay for a given comic rather than seeing what others are paying for it. I've kind of had to do this with Schomburg covers anyway as they are pretty thinly traded at any given grade. Don't get me wrong, I love GPA and it is an invaluable tool. But it has made me pass on comics that I would like to buy and buy comics I probably should have passed on.

[RockMyAmadeus]

We got to this point because of the double triple whammy of certification and tapped cultural entertainment potential (that is, films, TV, etc.) and the availability the internet auction houses gave us.

 

 

FTFY

 

 

Ok, I'll concede. Although, internet auction houses were operating long before the current madness (which can be dated to 2008, with the release of Iron Man.)

[Mmehdy]

 

You say "two bidders do not create actual value"...well, what does? This is old paper; it has no intrinsic value beyond 10-20 minutes of entertainment. All the value of these items beyond entertainment value is made up, fictional, it doesn't exist, except at the moment of purchase. If two people can agree that this item has this value at this particular moment in time...that's what it is worth, to the person handing over the money. Will it be worth that....or more...in 5 minutes, 5 months, 5 years, or 5 decades? Who knows? But at that single moment of time, it WAS worth that to the person who bought it. Everything else is just wind.

 

Good point Rock...what does create value? Rarity coupled with demand....we have ask ourselves how did we get here from the simple collecting world of the 70's and 80's...how did we arrive at multi-million dollars prices...was it because the actual value increased...or was it as Rock has put it "the wind or hype"

 

I don't think we're communicatiing with each other very well. There is no such thing as "actual value", as if there is some "baseline" value that these things are "really" worth. What they are "really" worth is the amount of entertainment one gets out of them. Everything...every single dime above that value....isn't "actual worth"...it's what everyone has convinced everyone else involved they are "worth."

 

An Action Comics #1 only has value because lots of people want it, and are willing to pay more than the next guy to get it. If no one wanted it, it isn't worth anything. I have things that are much rarer, and much older, than Action Comics #1, that aren't worth $10...because no one wants them but me.

 

This market is not a healthly sustaining market but one as (another board member called it) "Schizophrenic ". Dangerous times...the real question is HOW DID WE GET TO THIS POINT...and how we can avoid it in the future...any suggestions??

 

We got to this point because of the double whammy of certification and tapped cultural entertainment potential (that is, films, TV, etc.)

 

 

 

I think we are communicating, its the agreeing point that is in contention here. Rock, interesting comment about "what everybody else is convincing the collector what they are worth"....interesting....At no time in our collecting world had there ever been MORE convincing that today...the internet hype has increased values..... I do think however Action one is worth more than just entertainment value...there is sort of a historical value that has to be considered as well as the cultural impact it has created. OVER Two million dollars is another question....hype of course.....and note these world records seem to be broken currently by the very hype machines themselves "the auction houses"...and I cannot forget this classic line when CC/Metro was asked Why they bought the auction #1 for the world record price.....because in year or so we are gonna sell it for more...Classic

 

 

[ciorac]

It's been almost seven years since the last stock market and real estate crash. When will the next one be? Many of us lost 40% or more in our 401k "investments", and many more were left holding the bag with their real estate "investments".

 

Seven years later the real estate market is still recovering, slowly, and stocks are giddy again in some sectors I guess. Quite a number of my larger position stocks still haven't gotten back to the price they were years ago. I have no control over what they will do, or won't do.

 

Yet, my collection is worth many times more now than it was seven years ago.

 

 

My take on all of this is that there are winners and losers in every type of investment vehicle that we put our money into.

 

Although Gene espouses on the advantages of investing in the financial markets and talks about winners such as Apple and Disney, I know of quite a few people that have lost a ton of money on the last 2 major market crashes and have stated emphatically that they will not put another penny into the market.

 

Although we can also readily see countless winners in the giddy GA comic book market such as your pre-Robin 'Tec's, early Actions, keys & classic covers, etc; I can also look back at some of the nosebleed prices realized in the Greg Manning auction in the initial crazed days when CGC first started, knowing full well that it would still be hard to beat some of those prices after all these years.

 

Although real estate is only now slowly starting to recover in some parts of the country as Bill has indicated, there are other parts of the continent where prices have already more than doubled from their highs in 2007 prior to the financial crisis and is well on their way to a three-bagger or more.

 

I guess it all really depends on knowing the market that you are putting your money into and feeling comfortable with it. A little bit of luck also never hurts along with getting someadvice from the right people.

 

So, I guess I should talk to Gene when it comes to investing in stocks, spend some time with Bill when it comes to buying and selling comics, and try to listen to my wife more often when she natters away about the real estate market.

 

(thumbs u I'm here for your bro

[Ryan.]

The current comic book commodity market cannot be "shorted" either like oil.... we all know, like any widget ( slabbed book) that are treated like"cattle" the investor loses respect for the item it self. That what makes me so mad...that these speculators don't appreciate comic book collecting as a true "art" but for 10% per year.

 

I know that that the new and current GA reprints have cut some demand for the GA books, that is the good thing to come out of this, that the art will not be lost and can someday be brought up on a I-pad.

 

But the price manipulation cannot last forever...with veteran collectors like me saying enough is enough, Gene using the charts....we are headed for a serious correction which is gonna effect a lot people, a number of collectors losing faith and some turning their back on the comic book market forever.

 

I would restrict my Key buying to unrestored books as well, with the big big loses coming on restored books where demand is going to decrease the most, if you have nonessential books or dupes..put them up on the Big 3 while the wave is cresting.

 

Chattel.

[Mmehdy]

The current comic book commodity market cannot be "shorted" either like oil.... we all know, like any widget ( slabbed book) that are treated like"cattle" the investor loses respect for the item it self. That what makes me so mad...that these speculators don't appreciate comic book collecting as a true "art" but for 10% per year.

 

I know that that the new and current GA reprints have cut some demand for the GA books, that is the good thing to come out of this, that the art will not be lost and can someday be brought up on a I-pad.

 

But the price manipulation cannot last forever...with veteran collectors like me saying enough is enough, Gene using the charts....we are headed for a serious correction which is gonna effect a lot people, a number of collectors losing faith and some turning their back on the comic book market forever.

 

I would restrict my Key buying to unrestored books as well, with the big big loses coming on restored books where demand is going to decrease the most, if you have nonessential books or dupes..put them up on the Big 3 while the wave is cresting.

 

Chattel.

 

You can put your head in the sand...deny reality....but even a fool is gonna at some point figure out .this upswing in market prices cannot last forever. It's just gonna take you longer to acknowledge.

[lou_fine]

Rock you might win the short term profit wise but the whole comic boob collecting world is going to suffer unless these crazy $725 prices for 2/10th a grading difference like you got stop.

 

You can tell the market what to do, but if the market isn't interested in listening, it won't do any good.

 

The market only cares about the number and color of the label. Beyond that, it really doesn't matter, generally.

 

Until the market wakes up and realizes that there is little to no difference between an average 9.6 and an average 9.8, this madness will not stop.

 

It's all about the number on the label.

 

 

Rocky;

 

Have not been keeping up with the CGC market for slabbed MA books since it has never made sense to me that spanking new books fresh off the printing press needed slabbing.

 

Are prices still as silly as they were when CGC first came onto the scene? I still remember the first time I saw this was in one of the OS Comic Price Updates or something like that which pictured a 9.8 copy of The Shadow #1 by Chaykin selling for $2,500. I thought for sure there must have been a misprint and Overstreet had mistakingly placed the decimal in the wrong spot and had really meant only $25.00.

 

Little did I realize that this was going to be the wave of the future. Speculators would be paying for the CGC label, irregardless of the fact that the underlying comic book itself did not carry any real value. The last time I looked in OS, the book was still valued at only $4 in 9.2 NM-, and I strongly believe you would be lucky if you could find somebody to pay you even close to that that amount for a raw copy.

[COI]

It's simple math: compare the cost of the top books in the hobby relative to middle/upper-middle class incomes when the MH Action 1 traded hands, compared to now; is the pool of buyers available to acquire the top books larger or smaller today? The answer is, it's significantly smaller, despite comics being more present in the collective pop-culture consciousnesses than ever.

[The-Collector]

New fans will continue to be made not tons that get into collectinf but the appreciation for them will also be there to a degree. They'll never be worthless like sports cards.

 

I'm sure that's what sports card collectors said too about other hobbies.

 

Sports cards were never cool. Especially not to kids. No kid walks around with a babe Ruth t shirt on. Kids don't care about old sports stars. Heck I feel bad when one of the guys from my teams retire cause I mentally move on to the new young guy on the team.

 

They don't make new cool superheros for some reason. Superheros are known by everyone and it will stay that way for a long time. Disney won't let you forget. They've invested to much. Even if comicbooks Arnt as popular for years to come the hero's in then will be. That puts it miles ahead of sports stuff everyone forgets about

 

I agree with Gene nearly all of the time.

 

The only thing I would take issue with is the idea that in order to maintain value comics need to have some connection to fond childhood memories (please excuse me if you do not think the connection is necessary and I am straw man-ing you).

 

There are many many valuable collectibles that have no fond childhood memories attached, numismatics and tribal artifacts spring immediately to mind. No one who was alive to have fond memories of an 1804 silver dollar is alive and paying 3 million dollars for one today. The fact that no one is ridding their bike to the corner store to buy comics anymore seems to be one of the least important determinants of value, if not entirely irrelevant.

 

[Ryan.]

 

Sports cards were never cool.

 

Not true.

[zuulioso]

I have been following for 50 pages so maybe it was mentioned before and if so, please ignore this post (as it will probably be ignored anyway), but I have to wonder what the size of the market is that buys slabbed books that are > $500?

 

Also, what percentage of this market is made up of speculators as opposed to collectors?

 

I hear about a lot of big dollar books change hands that are dealer to dealer. Think about conventions where big sales happen before the show even opens. We hear dealer reports about how much they make at a show. How much of that will still be there when the speculator bubble bursts?

 

I am not referring to people giving up comics and not collecting them because of a generational/demographic issue. I am referring to the dealer to "dealer" exchanges where the sales are primarily based on perceived margin. Ex: A book's market is $1000, but I buy it from a dealer for $900 with the expectation I can sell it for a quick $100 profit.

 

Once that margin disappears there won't be any dealer to dealer sales like today.

 

THAT is what I think will cause the bubble burst. Not collectors leaving the market.

[delekkerste]

I agree with Gene nearly all of the time.

 

The only thing I would take issue with is the idea that in order to maintain value comics need to have some connection to fond childhood memories (please excuse me if you do not think the connection is necessary and I am straw man-ing you).

 

There are many many valuable collectibles that have no fond childhood memories attached, numismatics and tribal artifacts spring immediately to mind. No one who was alive to have fond memories of an 1804 silver dollar is alive and paying 3 million dollars for one today. The fact that no one is ridding their bike to the corner store to buy comics anymore seems to be one of the least important determinants of value, if not entirely irrelevant.

 

Well, no one alive today was around when 1804 silver dollars were issued, but everyone has used physical money at some point and developed a connection there, while the appreciation of precious metals is practically instinctual (not sure there is any culture that doesn't value it more than, say, your average rock or lump of tin). Similarly, when I was a young kid collecting baseball cards, me and my friends of course aspired to own a T-206 Honus Wagner or a 1952 Mickey Mantle, who were, of course, players from well before our time. But, we wouldn't have coveted these if we weren't collecting baseball cards in the first place.

 

People today collect EC comics or Golden Age DCs and Timelys even though they weren't even born during that era. But, the gateway for 99%+ of those collectors was getting into newer (or at least more familiar) comics when they were kids. It's not often that a 40-something Joe Sixpack in Cleveland is going to just decide out of nowhere that he's going to collect old Timelys without having been introduced to other comics at a younger age.

 

Some collectibles are more nostalgia-driven than others. Some don't even require that you had exposure as a kid - for example, there are some hobbies (like high-end art) that you may be pulled towards later in life if you make a large sum of money. But, for comics - you really need that gateway of new comics to introduce people, at a young(er) age, to the wider world of vintage back issue collecting. The TV shows and movies are poor substitutes for introducing people to the actual comics - it's a totally different experience that acts more like a substitute for the comic-reading/collecting experience than an introduction to such.

[FineCollector]

I have been following for 50 pages so maybe it was mentioned before and if so, please ignore this post (as it will probably be ignored anyway), but I have to wonder what the size of the market is that buys slabbed books that are > $500?

 

Also, what percentage of this market is made up of speculators as opposed to collectors?

 

I'm listening, John!

 

I'd love it if there was some way to break down the sales of some of these books, but I feel like collectors are less attached to their books than they used to be. In the old days, you'd buy a book from the local store at $5, but even if it doubled in price, you'd be selling at half or less, so you'd just keep it. Now, when the price spikes, it's an easy thing to cash in on. I'm sure lots of people bought the first Black Manta because of their love for the 70's and 90's cartoons, but when $500-800 flashes on screen, how attached are you really? If you're going to analyze market data of this kind, you'll have to make the distinction between the hardcore collector, and the opportunistic collector.

[The-Collector]

I agree with Gene nearly all of the time.

 

The only thing I would take issue with is the idea that in order to maintain value comics need to have some connection to fond childhood memories (please excuse me if you do not think the connection is necessary and I am straw man-ing you).

 

There are many many valuable collectibles that have no fond childhood memories attached, numismatics and tribal artifacts spring immediately to mind. No one who was alive to have fond memories of an 1804 silver dollar is alive and paying 3 million dollars for one today. The fact that no one is ridding their bike to the corner store to buy comics anymore seems to be one of the least important determinants of value, if not entirely irrelevant.

 

Well, no one alive today was around when 1804 silver dollars were issued, but everyone has used physical money at some point and developed a connection there, while the appreciation of precious metals is practically instinctual (not sure there is any culture that doesn't value it more than, say, your average rock or lump of tin). Similarly, when I was a young kid collecting baseball cards, me and my friends of course aspired to own a T-206 Honus Wagner or a 1952 Mickey Mantle, who were, of course, players from well before our time. But, we wouldn't have coveted these if we weren't collecting baseball cards in the first place.

 

People today collect EC comics or Golden Age DCs and Timelys even though they weren't even born during that era. But, the gateway for 99%+ of those collectors was getting into newer (or at least more familiar) comics when they were kids. It's not often that a 40-something Joe Sixpack in Cleveland is going to just decide out of nowhere that he's going to collect old Timelys without having been introduced to other comics at a younger age.

 

Some collectibles are more nostalgia-driven than others. Some don't even require that you had exposure as a kid - for example, there are some hobbies (like high-end art) that you may be pulled towards later in life if you make a large sum of money. But, for comics - you really need that gateway of new comics to introduce people, at a young(er) age, to the wider world of vintage back issue collecting. The TV shows and movies are poor substitutes for introducing people to the actual comics - it's a totally different experience that acts more like a substitute for the comic-reading/collecting experience than an introduction to such.

 

I think those points are all arguable. On what basis are movies a poor substitute? They are driving interest. The current movie boom coincides with the market run up which indicates some type of correlation, indicating that in fact they are a good substitute. And I am not sure how you justify that movies will have less/the same/or more impact than purchasing physical copies, except for an appeal to intuition.

 

I don't know whether they are good or not and overall I agree with you that comics do not look like a good investment. But I don't think you can justify that conclusion based on falling circulation and I take issue with the focus on nostalgia as a necessary driver of price. Nostalgia is obviously not necessary precondition for high values. And even if it were, the books remain culturally significant and if anything the characters have become more well known.

 

We have a multitude of factors at play here. It is very simplistic to say circulation is dropping and nobody rides their Schwinn to the milk bar anymore therefore prices are unsustainable. Just like it is overly simplistic to say movies are driving interest inexorably forward and their cultural impact means they will maintain their prices.

 

I have to view anyone who claims to be able to weigh those factors against each other and discern a future market direction with incredulity.

[delekkerste]

I think those points are all arguable. On what basis are movies a poor substitute? They are driving interest. Not sure how you quantity that they will not have the less/the same/or more impact than purchasing physical copies.

 

I don't know whether they are good or not. And overall I agree with you that comics do not look like a good investment. But I don't think you can justify that conclusion based on falling circulation and I take issue with the focus on nostalgia as a necessary driver of price. Nostalgia is obviously not necessary precondition for high values. And even if it were, the books remain culturally significant and if anything the characters have become more well known.

 

We have a multitude of factors at play here. It is very simplistic to say circulation is dropping and nobody rides their Schwinn to the milk bar anymore therefore prices are unsustainable. Just like it is overly simplistic to say movies are driving interest inexorably forward and their cultural impact means they will maintain their prices.

 

I have to view anyone who claims to be able to weigh those factors against each other and discern a future market direction with incredulity.

 

Movies drive interest in the characters, but, it's not enough that kids are wearing Batman and Spider-Man t-shirts if their only connection with the characters is the films, videogames and the clothes their parents buy them. Yes, we've seen some tick up in comic sales, though, when the median top 100 book has seen flat sales for the past decade, you really have to question how much (and how much of is new vs. old collectors). At the end of the day, to create new vintage comic collectors, you need to get them buying comic books. Virtually no one goes from watching a Spider-Man movie directly to plunking down 25 grand for an AF #15.

 

Far from being the new gateway to reading and collecting comics, the movies have co-opted these characters for their own. People go see "The Avengers" and then wait for "The Avengers: Age of Ultron" - they don't necessarily go out and buy a copy of the latest Avengers comic, or a Kree-Skrull War TPB, and they certainly don't go out and drop big coin on an original Avengers #1. The bottom line is that, for a thriving back issue hobby to exist in the future, we need to hook more actual comic book readers today. I don't believe in the Rule of 25 as a whole, but, think about this - a 13 year old today will be 38 in 25 years and potentially hitting his stride professionally. What's he going to be nostalgic about from his youth? Maybe watching all those superhero movies. But, is a 38-year old guy who never read the comics suddenly going to get into the comics then?

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but looking at every step in the process, the conversion rate is going to be so small compared to what it used to be when there were fewer entertainment options, and comics were cheap and ubiquitous. The first comics I ever read were bought by my parents at a rest stop on a family roadtrip. Later, when I became a collector, I had two friends who lent me their comics, and then I went out to the local 7-11 and bought my first comic on my own. What's the 2015 equivalent? Now we have in-car video, iPads and other handheld electronic devices to keep the kids occupied on the way to Walley World. Friends don't lend each other comic books anymore, they use social media to share photos and such. The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

People who enjoy the movies today will simply become nostalgic about the movies in 25 years, just like I like to watch Top Gun and Fast Times at Ridgemont High and Raiders of the Lost Ark. If they don't get hooked early into buying and reading comics, reading fansites/blogs, going to conventions, etc., they're not going to wake up in 25 years desiring to buy AF #15s and New Mutants #98 and such. I mean, sure, I'm sure there will be exceptions that prove the rule, but, in the aggregate, they won't have the numbers to replace the collectors who are exiting the hobby, which is the problem. It's all about converting more people into collectors and there are many reasons why that is not occurring at anywhere near the same rate as 20-30 years ago. IMO, it's very obvious which factor will be stronger in the long run, especially since all those billions of movie tickets sold have not managed to budge the median top 100 unit sales figure for a decade. If you're not creating a ton of new, young collectors today to replace those Baby Boomers and Gen Xers who leave, there won't be a thriving hobby 25 years from now. Math > hope/faith

[ciorac]

I think those points are all arguable. On what basis are movies a poor substitute? They are driving interest. Not sure how you quantity that they will not have the less/the same/or more impact than purchasing physical copies.

 

I don't know whether they are good or not. And overall I agree with you that comics do not look like a good investment. But I don't think you can justify that conclusion based on falling circulation and I take issue with the focus on nostalgia as a necessary driver of price. Nostalgia is obviously not necessary precondition for high values. And even if it were, the books remain culturally significant and if anything the characters have become more well known.

 

We have a multitude of factors at play here. It is very simplistic to say circulation is dropping and nobody rides their Schwinn to the milk bar anymore therefore prices are unsustainable. Just like it is overly simplistic to say movies are driving interest inexorably forward and their cultural impact means they will maintain their prices.

 

I have to view anyone who claims to be able to weigh those factors against each other and discern a future market direction with incredulity.

 

Movies drive interest in the characters, but, it's not enough that kids are wearing Batman and Spider-Man t-shirts if their only connection with the characters is the films, videogames and the clothes their parents buy them. Yes, we've seen some tick up in comic sales, though, when the median top 100 book has seen flat sales for the past decade, you really have to question how much (and how much of is new vs. old collectors). At the end of the day, to create new vintage comic collectors, you need to get them buying comic books. Virtually no one goes from watching a Spider-Man movie directly to plunking down 25 grand for an AF #15.

 

Far from being the new gateway to reading and collecting comics, the movies have co-opted these characters for their own. People go see "The Avengers" and then wait for "The Avengers: Age of Ultron" - they don't necessarily go out and buy a copy of the latest Avengers comic, or a Kree-Skrull War TPB, and they certainly don't go out and drop big coin on an original Avengers #1. The bottom line is that, for a thriving back issue hobby to exist in the future, we need to hook more actual comic book readers today. I don't believe in the Rule of 25 as a whole, but, think about this - a 13 year old today will be 38 in 25 years and potentially hitting his stride professionally. What's he going to be nostalgic about from his youth? Maybe watching all those superhero movies. But, is a 38-year old guy who never read the comics suddenly going to get into the comics then?

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but looking at every step in the process, the conversion rate is going to be so small compared to what it used to be when there were fewer entertainment options, and comics were cheap and ubiquitous. The first comics I ever read were bought by my parents at a rest stop on a family roadtrip. Later, when I became a collector, I had two friends who lent me their comics, and then I went out to the local 7-11 and bought my first comic on my own. What's the 2015 equivalent? Now we have in-car video, iPads and other handheld electronic devices to keep the kids occupied on the way to Walley World. Friends don't lend each other comic books anymore, they use social media to share photos and such. The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

People who enjoy the movies today will simply become nostalgic about the movies in 25 years, just like I like to watch Top Gun and Fast Times at Ridgemont High and Raiders of the Lost Ark. If they don't get hooked early into buying and reading comics, reading fansites/blogs, going to conventions, etc., they're not going to wake up in 25 years desiring to buy AF #15s and New Mutants #98 and such. I mean, sure, I'm sure there will be exceptions that prove the rule, but, in the aggregate, they won't have the numbers to replace the collectors who are exiting the hobby, which is the problem. It's all about converting more people into collectors and there are many reasons why that is not occurring at anywhere near the same rate as 20-30 years ago. IMO, it's very obvious which factor will be stronger in the long run, especially since all those billions of movie tickets sold have not managed to budge the median top 100 unit sales figure for a decade. If you're not creating a ton of new, young collectors today to replace those Baby Boomers and Gen Xers who leave, there won't be a thriving hobby 25 years from now. Math > hope/faith

 

Salient points. Here is a counter-point.

 

The world is going digital, this is absolutely true. People have always been collectors. This is also true. What will the future generations collect? If the world is digital and on demand, those things that the 13 year old now enjoys will be even more ubiquitous when he/she is 38. So they might just want to reach back to something that is NOT ubiquitous, comics or other such paper based items that will ultimately no longer be produced. The collecting gene (no pun intended Gene) won't go away. So the need to sate that Jones might be stronger than ever.