Are key comics good investments?

[thunsicker]

I agree with Gene nearly all of the time.

 

The only thing I would take issue with is the idea that in order to maintain value comics need to have some connection to fond childhood memories (please excuse me if you do not think the connection is necessary and I am straw man-ing you).

 

There are many many valuable collectibles that have no fond childhood memories attached, numismatics and tribal artifacts spring immediately to mind. No one who was alive to have fond memories of an 1804 silver dollar is alive and paying 3 million dollars for one today. The fact that no one is ridding their bike to the corner store to buy comics anymore seems to be one of the least important determinants of value, if not entirely irrelevant.

 

Well, no one alive today was around when 1804 silver dollars were issued, but everyone has used physical money at some point and developed a connection there, while the appreciation of precious metals is practically instinctual (not sure there is any culture that doesn't value it more than, say, your average rock or lump of tin). Similarly, when I was a young kid collecting baseball cards, me and my friends of course aspired to own a T-206 Honus Wagner or a 1952 Mickey Mantle, who were, of course, players from well before our time. But, we wouldn't have coveted these if we weren't collecting baseball cards in the first place.

 

People today collect EC comics or Golden Age DCs and Timelys even though they weren't even born during that era. But, the gateway for 99%+ of those collectors was getting into newer (or at least more familiar) comics when they were kids. It's not often that a 40-something Joe Sixpack in Cleveland is going to just decide out of nowhere that he's going to collect old Timelys without having been introduced to other comics at a younger age.

 

Some collectibles are more nostalgia-driven than others. Some don't even require that you had exposure as a kid - for example, there are some hobbies (like high-end art) that you may be pulled towards later in life if you make a large sum of money. But, for comics - you really need that gateway of new comics to introduce people, at a young(er) age, to the wider world of vintage back issue collecting. The TV shows and movies are poor substitutes for introducing people to the actual comics - it's a totally different experience that acts more like a substitute for the comic-reading/collecting experience than an introduction to such.

 

I think those points are all arguable. On what basis are movies a poor substitute? They are driving interest. The current movie boom coincides with the market run up which indicates some type of correlation, indicating that in fact they are a good substitute. And I am not sure how you justify that movies will have less/the same/or more impact than purchasing physical copies, except for an appeal to intuition.

 

I don't know whether they are good or not and overall I agree with you that comics do not look like a good investment. But I don't think you can justify that conclusion based on falling circulation and I take issue with the focus on nostalgia as a necessary driver of price. Nostalgia is obviously not necessary precondition for high values. And even if it were, the books remain culturally significant and if anything the characters have become more well known.

 

We have a multitude of factors at play here. It is very simplistic to say circulation is dropping and nobody rides their Schwinn to the milk bar anymore therefore prices are unsustainable. Just like it is overly simplistic to say movies are driving interest inexorably forward and their cultural impact means they will maintain their prices.

 

I have to view anyone who claims to be able to weigh those factors against each other and discern a future market direction with incredulity.

 

Keeping in mind Gene's favorite quote that the plural of anecdote isn't proof...

If you read the boards and watch the new collectors come in there is a common story. "I collected comics as a kid and after watching XXXXX Movie I dusted off the old collection and did some research. After buying a few I noticed slabs and that brought me here." Now it's possible people are lying about having collected as kids. It's also possible that the movies aren't creating this new collector but is just bringing the old nostalgic collector back into the fold.

[RockMyAmadeus]

New fans will continue to be made not tons that get into collectinf but the appreciation for them will also be there to a degree. They'll never be worthless like sports cards.

 

I'm sure that's what sports card collectors said too about other hobbies.

 

Sports cards were never cool. Especially not to kids. No kid walks around with a babe Ruth t shirt on. Kids don't care about old sports stars. Heck I feel bad when one of the guys from my teams retire cause I mentally move on to the new young guy on the team.

 

They don't make new cool superheros for some reason. Superheros are known by everyone and it will stay that way for a long time. Disney won't let you forget. They've invested to much. Even if comicbooks Arnt as popular for years to come the hero's in then will be. That puts it miles ahead of sports stuff everyone forgets about

 

I agree with Gene nearly all of the time.

 

The only thing I would take issue with is the idea that in order to maintain value comics need to have some connection to fond childhood memories (please excuse me if you do not think the connection is necessary and I am straw man-ing you).

 

There are many many valuable collectibles that have no fond childhood memories attached, numismatics and tribal artifacts spring immediately to mind. No one who was alive to have fond memories of an 1804 silver dollar is alive and paying 3 million dollars for one today. The fact that no one is ridding their bike to the corner store to buy comics anymore seems to be one of the least important determinants of value, if not entirely irrelevant.

 

In fact, 1804 dollars have never been available to children, at any time, for any reason, since they were first made in 1834. They were presentation pieces, made for special occasions, and no one could have any connection to them as a child.

 

That doesn't mean a childhood connection with coins in general can't be formed...that's how I got mine....but it's not necessary, and some of the greatest collections ever assembled were done so by people who didn't begin actively collecting until they were adults.

 

 

This "you must have a childhood connection to reallllly appreciate it" idea doesn't hold water. There is no denying that nostalgia is a powerful, powerful force...but it's not the only one, and it's not even a necessary one. I didn't get into comics until I was 17, damn near grown, and I love the artform. And no, I don't suffer from any sort of diminished mental capacity. I don't read Superboy #90 and say "wow, that's great literature!" I can love and appreciate the artform for what it is, and what it was, without having to have been a 6 year old boy reading them when they came out.

 

(I DO read Alan Moore's Swamp Thing, and think that it is great literature, because it is. )

 

 

[delekkerste]

Salient points. Here is a counter-point.

 

The world is going digital, this is absolutely true. People have always been collectors. This is also true. What will the future generations collect? If the world is digital and on demand, those things that the 13 year old now enjoys will be even more ubiquitous when he/she is 38. So they might just want to reach back to something that is NOT ubiquitous, comics or other such paper based items that will ultimately no longer be produced. The collecting gene (no pun intended Gene) won't go away. So the need to sate that Jones might be stronger than ever.

 

I'm sure that, even in the caveman days, Ugg wanted to collect more rocks than Ooga, and that there is some truth to there being a genetic/instinctual urge to collect. That said, I think American-style collecting is largely a product of the environment - prosperity, personal property rights, and lots of room for storage. And, to me, the environment is changing (culturally at least) and the urge to collect can manifest itself in many new ways - such as collecting the most "likes" on Facebook or Twitter followers or building an extensive MP3 library or downloading the most porn.

 

I just watched the "21 Jump Street" movie this week and, yes, it's a low-grade comedy, but it was funny seeing how these two nitwits go back to high school as undercover narcs and find that social conventions that have prevailed for decades have been totally up-ended in just a few short years. There is definitely some truth in that, and I have my doubts whether today's youth will, in the aggregate, gravitate towards their father's and grandfather's hobbies even if they do become more materialistic and nostalgic over time than they are now.

 

Perhaps, in time, people will long for simpler times and the comfort of paper collectibles. I'm sure there will be people who fall into that category, just as there are younger people today who love antiques and Americana. But, on the whole, I guess I'm part of the Hannibal Lecter School of Collecting. What do we covet, Clarice? What we see every day (or, in this case, what we enjoyed in our younger days).

 

You will let me know when the lambs stop screaming, won't you?

[1950's war comics]

There is an extremely high likelihood that comic collecting in the future will go the route of stamp collectors

Philately was the number one collector field forever and now is on life support

the classic stamps still have demand but a lot of the stamp in the last 50-100 years have little value (and that's even factoring they still have a net usable value)

 

dekkerstat: You are the E.F. Hutton of these boards and it would be interesting to read your take on the rise and fall of the stamp collectors market and if you see any comparisons with comics - thanks

[delekkerste]

That doesn't mean a childhood connection with coins in general can't be formed...that's how I got mine....but it's not necessary, and some of the greatest collections ever assembled were done so by people who didn't begin actively collecting until they were adults.

 

This "you must have a childhood connection to reallllly appreciate it" idea doesn't hold water. There is no denying that nostalgia is a powerful, powerful force...but it's not the only one, and it's not even a necessary one. I didn't get into comics until I was 17, damn near grown, and I love the artform. And no, I don't suffer from any sort of diminished mental capacity. I don't read Superboy #90 and say "wow, that's great literature!" I can love and appreciate the artform for what it is, and what it was, without having to have been a 6 year old boy reading them when they came out.

 

Yup. People may never have seen an 1804 whatety-what but everybody has used money and stamps in their lives.

 

I've never said that we can only appreciate as adults what we appreciated at 6 or 10 or 13 years old - that would be completely asinine. But, vintage comics were targeted towards kids/teens/young adults, and, empirically, if you don't share some of that experience, it's not the same as picking up an old comic book at age 38. You might pick up Sandman or Watchmen at that age and enjoy it, but to really appreciate what comics were all about, without any experience of reading comics, trading comics, going to the LCS at a young age, talking about comics with friends, etc...you're not going to convert many of those people late in life into collecting out of nowhere. That's my point, not that we can only appreciate things to which we had a childhood connection.

 

And 17 is not anywhere close to being too late to develop a connection to this material.

[CBT]

stamp collecting can be compared much more strongly to baseball card collecting, but comics have always been separate, because you can actually do something with a comic (read it). While cards, like stamps(and coins), can only be looked at, they are at least derived from something else (the player on them).

 

Also, as people like to mention digital.... Digital Comic growth has already gone flat. It's growth will be tied to the market as a whole, but is not going to replace print comics. Those who want them, are already buying them, and to increase sales at this point, can only come through price reduction.

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

stamp collecting can be compared much more strongly to baseball card collecting, but comics have always been separate, because you can actually do something with a comic (read it). While cards, like stamps(and coins), can only be looked at, they are at least derived from something else (the player on them).

 

Also, as people like to mention digital.... Digital Comic growth has already gone flat. It's growth will be tied to the market as a whole, but is not going to replace print comics. Those who want them, are already buying them, and to increase sales at this point, can only come through price reduction.

 

One thing different from sports than stamps is sports has their own super hero stars in Tom Brady, LeBron James and Mike Trout.

Every year new sport stars come on the scene. These new sport stars attract the younger generations. Stamps doesn`t have that. Stamps is really a dead and old dying hobby in America, even when you ship something out for EBay they don`t even use postage stamps, but electronic stamps.

So comparing sports cards to stamps is suspect at best.

 

 

[Prince Namor]

New fans will continue to be made not tons that get into collectinf but the appreciation for them will also be there to a degree. They'll never be worthless like sports cards.

 

I'm sure that's what sports card collectors said too about other hobbies.

 

Sports cards were never cool. Especially not to kids. No kid walks around with a babe Ruth t shirt on. Kids don't care about old sports stars. Heck I feel bad when one of the guys from my teams retire cause I mentally move on to the new young guy on the team.

 

They don't make new cool superheros for some reason. Superheros are known by everyone and it will stay that way for a long time. Disney won't let you forget. They've invested to much. Even if comicbooks Arnt as popular for years to come the hero's in then will be. That puts it miles ahead of sports stuff everyone forgets about

 

I'm not sure how much of an age difference we are (I'm 51), but I can assure you, there was a time when sports cards were VERY cool. As late as 1992, people were going nuts for Shaquille O'Neal rookie cards. In fact, it was a younger crowd then, who were drawn to the NBA, leading to a still growing audience for the sport.

 

Kids may not wear t-shirts with Babe Ruth's face on it, but they do still buy jersey's of players and have an interest in their careers. Whereas once, sports cards were a part of that, to discount the popularity of it would be shortsighted. Air Jordan tennis shoes don't sell because they're 'good shoes', they sell because of the name. And Jordan's been retired for 16 years!

 

Spider-man may have done 2.4 Billion in Merchandise sales last year, but Jordan, just for Nike, did $2.7 Billion. That doesn't take into account any of his other endorsement sales.

 

Sports cards ARE dead - that business killed itself. But I think sports stars, through autographs, photos, jerseys, etc are still a big business.

[Mmehdy]

 

Sure there are going to be new collectors coming in...but down the road not to buy a comic book they can't touch, read, or feel at a very high and inflated price.

 

No they are gonna get graphic novels, reprints or go on line

 

The graded comic bookin a holder is gonna be 98% (if it isn't now) Speculator who buys and sells the comic book commodity as a widget. If you go on gold, a lot of true collectors have not slabbed there collection...major collections UNNTIL the decide to sell at speculator prices (worlds highest price).

 

So what new GEN kid is gonna want all star comics #15 in a slab......again we are in a market frenzy......brought on by the thinking...."somebody is gonna pay more", you book is worth 5x value if it is slabbed....and the whole world wants your book according to the auction houses.

[mycomicshop]

Salient points. Here is a counter-point.

 

The world is going digital, this is absolutely true. People have always been collectors. This is also true. What will the future generations collect? If the world is digital and on demand, those things that the 13 year old now enjoys will be even more ubiquitous when he/she is 38. So they might just want to reach back to something that is NOT ubiquitous, comics or other such paper based items that will ultimately no longer be produced. The collecting gene (no pun intended Gene) won't go away. So the need to sate that Jones might be stronger than ever.

 

I'm sure that, even in the caveman days, Ugg wanted to collect more rocks than Ooga, and that there is some truth to there being a genetic/instinctual urge to collect. That said, I think American-style collecting is largely a product of the environment - prosperity, personal property rights, and lots of room for storage. And, to me, the environment is changing (culturally at least) and the urge to collect can manifest itself in many new ways - such as collecting the most "likes" on Facebook or Twitter followers or building an extensive MP3 library or downloading the most porn.

 

Ciorac summed up my thoughts. Some portion of the population will always want to collect something, and if more and more of what we consume are digital experiences rather than tangible objects, the collectors among us will find something that appeals to them. Comic characters and stories have a bigger foothold in the entertainment world than ever before, and the back issue comic market is so small to begin with that it takes only a very small percentage of spillover from the consumer population to maintain it.

 

I don't think that garnering FB likes or curating a digital library are substitutes for collecting tangible, tradable objects--different types of activity.

[Prince Namor]

Sure there are going to be new collectors coming in...but down the road not to buy a comic book they can't touch, read, or feel at a very high and inflated price.

 

No they are gonna get graphic novels, reprints or go on line

 

The graded comic bookin a holder is gonna be 98% (if it isn't now) Speculator who buys and sells the comic book commodity as a widget. If you go on gold, a lot of true collectors have not slabbed there collection...major collections UNNTIL the decide to sell at speculator prices (worlds highest price).

 

So what new GEN kid is gonna want all star comics #15 in a slab......again we are in a market frenzy......brought on by the thinking...."somebody is gonna pay more", you book is worth 5x value if it is slabbed....and the whole world wants your book according to the auction houses.

 

So what is it you actually fear Mitch? That people won't read physical comics anymore or that they won't have the same monetary value for older books?

[delekkerste]

Ciorac summed up my thoughts. Some portion of the population will always want to collect something, and if more and more of what we consume are digital experiences rather than tangible objects, the collectors among us will find something that appeals to them. Comic characters and stories have a bigger foothold in the entertainment world than ever before, and the back issue comic market is so small to begin with that it takes only a very small percentage of spillover from the consumer population to maintain it.

 

I don't think that garnering FB likes or curating a digital library are substitutes for collecting tangible, tradable objects--different types of activity.

 

We can agree to disagree on what people collect, but, regardless, I don't see people deciding to collect comics en masse if they haven't had any previous attachment to them. Even if more and more tangible objects are going away, it's not like there aren't a nearly infinite number of ways to occupy one's time these days. Personally, I'd rather bet on things that could blow up big in the future (like virtual reality) than hope that a bunch of adults are going to wistfully pine for simpler days and decide to collect comics out of nowhere. It's such a narrow, comic collecting-centric view of the world you're espousing - I just don't think it's likely or realistic.

 

The comic market may be small, but (a) it's not that small and (b) it's small despite having positive generational tailwinds up 'til now. I think it's dangerous to just assume that there will be adequate replacements in terms of numbers of resources in the future. Upon closer inspection, I think it's almost certain that there won't be.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I think those points are all arguable. On what basis are movies a poor substitute? They are driving interest. Not sure how you quantity that they will not have the less/the same/or more impact than purchasing physical copies.

 

I don't know whether they are good or not. And overall I agree with you that comics do not look like a good investment. But I don't think you can justify that conclusion based on falling circulation and I take issue with the focus on nostalgia as a necessary driver of price. Nostalgia is obviously not necessary precondition for high values. And even if it were, the books remain culturally significant and if anything the characters have become more well known.

 

We have a multitude of factors at play here. It is very simplistic to say circulation is dropping and nobody rides their Schwinn to the milk bar anymore therefore prices are unsustainable. Just like it is overly simplistic to say movies are driving interest inexorably forward and their cultural impact means they will maintain their prices.

 

I have to view anyone who claims to be able to weigh those factors against each other and discern a future market direction with incredulity.

 

Movies drive interest in the characters, but, it's not enough that kids are wearing Batman and Spider-Man t-shirts if their only connection with the characters is the films, videogames and the clothes their parents buy them. Yes, we've seen some tick up in comic sales, though, when the median top 100 book has seen flat sales for the past decade, you really have to question how much (and how much of is new vs. old collectors). At the end of the day, to create new vintage comic collectors, you need to get them buying comic books. Virtually no one goes from watching a Spider-Man movie directly to plunking down 25 grand for an AF #15.

 

Far from being the new gateway to reading and collecting comics, the movies have co-opted these characters for their own. People go see "The Avengers" and then wait for "The Avengers: Age of Ultron" - they don't necessarily go out and buy a copy of the latest Avengers comic, or a Kree-Skrull War TPB, and they certainly don't go out and drop big coin on an original Avengers #1. The bottom line is that, for a thriving back issue hobby to exist in the future, we need to hook more actual comic book readers today. I don't believe in the Rule of 25 as a whole, but, think about this - a 13 year old today will be 38 in 25 years and potentially hitting his stride professionally. What's he going to be nostalgic about from his youth? Maybe watching all those superhero movies. But, is a 38-year old guy who never read the comics suddenly going to get into the comics then?

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but looking at every step in the process, the conversion rate is going to be so small compared to what it used to be when there were fewer entertainment options, and comics were cheap and ubiquitous. The first comics I ever read were bought by my parents at a rest stop on a family roadtrip. Later, when I became a collector, I had two friends who lent me their comics, and then I went out to the local 7-11 and bought my first comic on my own. What's the 2015 equivalent? Now we have in-car video, iPads and other handheld electronic devices to keep the kids occupied on the way to Walley World. Friends don't lend each other comic books anymore, they use social media to share photos and such. The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

People who enjoy the movies today will simply become nostalgic about the movies in 25 years, just like I like to watch Top Gun and Fast Times at Ridgemont High and Raiders of the Lost Ark. If they don't get hooked early into buying and reading comics, reading fansites/blogs, going to conventions, etc., they're not going to wake up in 25 years desiring to buy AF #15s and New Mutants #98 and such. I mean, sure, I'm sure there will be exceptions that prove the rule, but, in the aggregate, they won't have the numbers to replace the collectors who are exiting the hobby, which is the problem. It's all about converting more people into collectors and there are many reasons why that is not occurring at anywhere near the same rate as 20-30 years ago. IMO, it's very obvious which factor will be stronger in the long run, especially since all those billions of movie tickets sold have not managed to budge the median top 100 unit sales figure for a decade. If you're not creating a ton of new, young collectors today to replace those Baby Boomers and Gen Xers who leave, there won't be a thriving hobby 25 years from now. Math > hope/faith

 

Salient points. Here is a counter-point.

 

The world is going digital, this is absolutely true. People have always been collectors. This is also true. What will the future generations collect? If the world is digital and on demand, those things that the 13 year old now enjoys will be even more ubiquitous when he/she is 38. So they might just want to reach back to something that is NOT ubiquitous, comics or other such paper based items that will ultimately no longer be produced. The collecting gene (no pun intended Gene) won't go away. So the need to sate that Jones might be stronger than ever.

Here`s something that shows how digital has changed things so fast.

The other day I had 50 DVDS in my car, and left the car doors unlocked.

5 or 6 years ago I would have made sure those car doors were locked because those 50 dvds were worth thousands, now I would be lucky to get .50 cents to a 1.00 a piece for them.

 

So digital streaming is changing the landscape fast.

I will give kudos to comics for being the last hobby that has resistance the longest to digital, but eventually the numbers favor the younger generation reading and collecting comics on their iPads than seeking out a LCS to read and collect.

 

btw yes you can collect things digitally.

[IntoAnother]

I think those points are all arguable. On what basis are movies a poor substitute? They are driving interest. Not sure how you quantity that they will not have the less/the same/or more impact than purchasing physical copies.

 

I don't know whether they are good or not. And overall I agree with you that comics do not look like a good investment. But I don't think you can justify that conclusion based on falling circulation and I take issue with the focus on nostalgia as a necessary driver of price. Nostalgia is obviously not necessary precondition for high values. And even if it were, the books remain culturally significant and if anything the characters have become more well known.

 

We have a multitude of factors at play here. It is very simplistic to say circulation is dropping and nobody rides their Schwinn to the milk bar anymore therefore prices are unsustainable. Just like it is overly simplistic to say movies are driving interest inexorably forward and their cultural impact means they will maintain their prices.

 

I have to view anyone who claims to be able to weigh those factors against each other and discern a future market direction with incredulity.

 

Movies drive interest in the characters, but, it's not enough that kids are wearing Batman and Spider-Man t-shirts if their only connection with the characters is the films, videogames and the clothes their parents buy them. Yes, we've seen some tick up in comic sales, though, when the median top 100 book has seen flat sales for the past decade, you really have to question how much (and how much of is new vs. old collectors). At the end of the day, to create new vintage comic collectors, you need to get them buying comic books. Virtually no one goes from watching a Spider-Man movie directly to plunking down 25 grand for an AF #15.

 

Far from being the new gateway to reading and collecting comics, the movies have co-opted these characters for their own. People go see "The Avengers" and then wait for "The Avengers: Age of Ultron" - they don't necessarily go out and buy a copy of the latest Avengers comic, or a Kree-Skrull War TPB, and they certainly don't go out and drop big coin on an original Avengers #1. The bottom line is that, for a thriving back issue hobby to exist in the future, we need to hook more actual comic book readers today. I don't believe in the Rule of 25 as a whole, but, think about this - a 13 year old today will be 38 in 25 years and potentially hitting his stride professionally. What's he going to be nostalgic about from his youth? Maybe watching all those superhero movies. But, is a 38-year old guy who never read the comics suddenly going to get into the comics then?

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but looking at every step in the process, the conversion rate is going to be so small compared to what it used to be when there were fewer entertainment options, and comics were cheap and ubiquitous. The first comics I ever read were bought by my parents at a rest stop on a family roadtrip. Later, when I became a collector, I had two friends who lent me their comics, and then I went out to the local 7-11 and bought my first comic on my own. What's the 2015 equivalent? Now we have in-car video, iPads and other handheld electronic devices to keep the kids occupied on the way to Walley World. Friends don't lend each other comic books anymore, they use social media to share photos and such. The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

People who enjoy the movies today will simply become nostalgic about the movies in 25 years, just like I like to watch Top Gun and Fast Times at Ridgemont High and Raiders of the Lost Ark. If they don't get hooked early into buying and reading comics, reading fansites/blogs, going to conventions, etc., they're not going to wake up in 25 years desiring to buy AF #15s and New Mutants #98 and such. I mean, sure, I'm sure there will be exceptions that prove the rule, but, in the aggregate, they won't have the numbers to replace the collectors who are exiting the hobby, which is the problem. It's all about converting more people into collectors and there are many reasons why that is not occurring at anywhere near the same rate as 20-30 years ago. IMO, it's very obvious which factor will be stronger in the long run, especially since all those billions of movie tickets sold have not managed to budge the median top 100 unit sales figure for a decade. If you're not creating a ton of new, young collectors today to replace those Baby Boomers and Gen Xers who leave, there won't be a thriving hobby 25 years from now. Math > hope/faith

 

Salient points. Here is a counter-point.

 

The world is going digital, this is absolutely true. People have always been collectors. This is also true. What will the future generations collect? If the world is digital and on demand, those things that the 13 year old now enjoys will be even more ubiquitous when he/she is 38. So they might just want to reach back to something that is NOT ubiquitous, comics or other such paper based items that will ultimately no longer be produced. The collecting gene (no pun intended Gene) won't go away. So the need to sate that Jones might be stronger than ever.

Here`s something that shows how digital has changed things so fast.

The other day I had 50 DVDS in my car, and left the car doors unlocked.

5 or 6 years ago I would have made sure those car doors were locked because those 50 dvds were worth thousands, now I would be lucky to get .50 cents to a 1.00 a piece for them.

 

So digital streaming is changing the landscape fast.

I will give kudos to comics for being the last hobby that has resistance the longest to digital, but eventually the numbers favor the younger generation reading and collecting comics on their iPads than seeking out a LCS to read and collect.

 

btw yes you can collect things digitally.

 

To what extent will digital readers effect the hobby? I am 39 and have only read a few books on my iPad. One due to it being Private Eye by BKV and the only way to read it and the others were previews from creator friends. I do not like it, at all. I may be quite a few years older than the digital age yet find it just way too much, too loud if you will.

 

Will the few that (likely mostly our children) grow up with paper books be far more resistant to the change than the older crowds? I can see people who prefer paper over digital a much greater number in comparison to those who still prefer the old vinyl records and never made a thorough switch to 8 tracks/cassettes/CD's/downloads. Now something's change for the better, such as VHS compared to the choices today. Personally I do not see digital comics improving what they are.

[Gatsby77]

I liked the anecdote about your DVDs.

 

My first DVD player was stolen out of the back of my car when it was parked for less than five minutes.

 

Even more amazing is to go back and watch the really bad 2001 Michael Douglas movie "One Night at McCools." There's a scene where femme fatale Liv Tyler basically orgasms at the thought of stealing the guy's DVD player because it was (then) so rare & valuable.

[mycomicshop]

Ciorac summed up my thoughts. Some portion of the population will always want to collect something, and if more and more of what we consume are digital experiences rather than tangible objects, the collectors among us will find something that appeals to them. Comic characters and stories have a bigger foothold in the entertainment world than ever before, and the back issue comic market is so small to begin with that it takes only a very small percentage of spillover from the consumer population to maintain it.

 

I don't think that garnering FB likes or curating a digital library are substitutes for collecting tangible, tradable objects--different types of activity.

 

We can agree to disagree on what people collect, but, regardless, I don't see people deciding to collect comics en masse if they haven't had any previous attachment to them. Even if more and more tangible objects are going away, it's not like there aren't a nearly infinite number of ways to occupy one's time these days. Personally, I'd rather bet on things that could blow up big in the future (like virtual reality) than hope that a bunch of adults are going to wistfully pine for simpler days and decide to collect comics out of nowhere. It's such a narrow, comic collecting-centric view of the world you're espousing - I just don't think it's likely or realistic.

 

The comic market may be small, but (a) it's not that small and (b) it's small despite having positive generational tailwinds up 'til now. I think it's dangerous to just assume that there will be adequate replacements in terms of numbers of resources in the future. Upon closer inspection, I think it's almost certain that there won't be.

 

So do you think we've hit "peak comics"?

 

I'm not making any predictions about values continuing to move up and up. Some will be flat, some will go up, and some will go down. I think the rapid increases of some books over the past few years aren't likely to continue at the same pace, but that's not a very controversial statement. What I don't see happening is a large scale, across the board decline of interest and money in the back issue market over the next 10-15 years. Going further out, 20, 30, 40 years in the future, I don't know what the future holds.

 

I'm not betting on comics in the sense of buying and holding books hoping they go up in value. I totally am betting on comics in terms of having no intention of getting out of the business and seeing opportunities for continued growth.

[thunsicker]

Ciorac summed up my thoughts. Some portion of the population will always want to collect something, and if more and more of what we consume are digital experiences rather than tangible objects, the collectors among us will find something that appeals to them. Comic characters and stories have a bigger foothold in the entertainment world than ever before, and the back issue comic market is so small to begin with that it takes only a very small percentage of spillover from the consumer population to maintain it.

 

I don't think that garnering FB likes or curating a digital library are substitutes for collecting tangible, tradable objects--different types of activity.

 

We can agree to disagree on what people collect, but, regardless, I don't see people deciding to collect comics en masse if they haven't had any previous attachment to them. Even if more and more tangible objects are going away, it's not like there aren't a nearly infinite number of ways to occupy one's time these days. Personally, I'd rather bet on things that could blow up big in the future (like virtual reality) than hope that a bunch of adults are going to wistfully pine for simpler days and decide to collect comics out of nowhere. It's such a narrow, comic collecting-centric view of the world you're espousing - I just don't think it's likely or realistic.

 

The comic market may be small, but (a) it's not that small and (b) it's small despite having positive generational tailwinds up 'til now. I think it's dangerous to just assume that there will be adequate replacements in terms of numbers of resources in the future. Upon closer inspection, I think it's almost certain that there won't be.

 

So do you think we've hit "peak comics"?

 

I'm not making any predictions about values continuing to move up and up. Some will be flat, some will go up, and some will go down. I think the rapid increases of some books over the past few years aren't likely to continue at the same pace, but that's not a very controversial statement. What I don't see happening is a large scale, across the board decline of interest and money in the back issue market over the next 10-15 years. Going further out, 20, 30, 40 years in the future, I don't know what the future holds.

 

I'm not betting on comics in the sense of buying and holding books hoping they go up in value. I totally am betting on comics in terms of having no intention of getting out of the business and seeing opportunities for continued growth.

 

And yet there are many here who are debating just that. People who see the rise of the last 10 years and extrapolate that out for the next 10-15 years. If you notice the title of the thread is "Are key comics good investments", not are the prices going to drop precipitously in the next 10 years.

[Couchy81]

I agree with Gene nearly all of the time.

 

The only thing I would take issue with is the idea that in order to maintain value comics need to have some connection to fond childhood memories (please excuse me if you do not think the connection is necessary and I am straw man-ing you).

 

There are many many valuable collectibles that have no fond childhood memories attached, numismatics and tribal artifacts spring immediately to mind. No one who was alive to have fond memories of an 1804 silver dollar is alive and paying 3 million dollars for one today. The fact that no one is ridding their bike to the corner store to buy comics anymore seems to be one of the least important determinants of value, if not entirely irrelevant.

 

Well, no one alive today was around when 1804 silver dollars were issued, but everyone has used physical money at some point and developed a connection there, while the appreciation of precious metals is practically instinctual (not sure there is any culture that doesn't value it more than, say, your average rock or lump of tin). Similarly, when I was a young kid collecting baseball cards, me and my friends of course aspired to own a T-206 Honus Wagner or a 1952 Mickey Mantle, who were, of course, players from well before our time. But, we wouldn't have coveted these if we weren't collecting baseball cards in the first place.

 

People today collect EC comics or Golden Age DCs and Timelys even though they weren't even born during that era. But, the gateway for 99%+ of those collectors was getting into newer (or at least more familiar) comics when they were kids. It's not often that a 40-something Joe Sixpack in Cleveland is going to just decide out of nowhere that he's going to collect old Timelys without having been introduced to other comics at a younger age.

 

Some collectibles are more nostalgia-driven than others. Some don't even require that you had exposure as a kid - for example, there are some hobbies (like high-end art) that you may be pulled towards later in life if you make a large sum of money. But, for comics - you really need that gateway of new comics to introduce people, at a young(er) age, to the wider world of vintage back issue collecting. The TV shows and movies are poor substitutes for introducing people to the actual comics - it's a totally different experience that acts more like a substitute for the comic-reading/collecting experience than an introduction to such.

 

I agree with sentimentality being a factor. Your E.C. example fits my profile perfectly. I collected comics as a kid in the 80's - mid 90's and my favorite books from that time were the E.C. reprints. I collected a ton of them and read them multiple times. That is the reason why today I own vintage E.C. I have no real desire to own other golden age titles. If I'm being honest, the only reason I would own any other golden age is because it was a good price and I could flip it for a profit. The E.C.s will be in my collection for a long time.

 

In terms of the market, there are tons of people who own and sell E.C. and other golden age books. Trying to sell them to people who aren't dealers or have sentimentality towards the books is going to be a challenge. IMO. It's not an ancient artifact. There is too much variety and too many copies for the super-rarity factor to come into play once there are very few or no sentimental buyers left.

[delekkerste]

So do you think we've hit "peak comics"?

 

I'm not making any predictions about values continuing to move up and up. Some will be flat, some will go up, and some will go down. I think the rapid increases of some books over the past few years aren't likely to continue at the same pace, but that's not a very controversial statement. What I don't see happening is a large scale, across the board decline of interest and money in the back issue market over the next 10-15 years. Going further out, 20, 30, 40 years in the future, I don't know what the future holds.

 

I'm not betting on comics in the sense of buying and holding books hoping they go up in value. I totally am betting on comics in terms of having no intention of getting out of the business and seeing opportunities for continued growth.

 

I think it's salad days for vintage comic dealers, auction houses, speculators and some of the shops that survived the '90s implosion. But, surely, we hit "peak comics" ages ago back when everyone and their cousin owned a comic shop, the Image guys were treated and paid like rock stars, circulations were soaring, etc. None of which is to say anything about what back issue prices are going to do over the next 10 years, just that the impact of fewer people getting into comics today cannot help but be felt down the line. We can argue whether that's 10-15 years from now or 25-30 years from now, but it's going to happen. Tomorrow's collectors are being created today (or not being, as the case may be).

 

I do see similarities between stamps, cards and comics. Yes, each market has its own idiosyncracies, but, at the end of the day, it's all stuff that was a quintessential part of growing up in America and isn't any more. Granted, comics I do agree are more viable/robust on their own than stamps or cards, and I am optimistic that the hobby won't be anywhere near as dire as stamps are today (again, people, don't be fooled into thinking stamps and cards are healthy just because the top 0.001% of material fetches crazy prices - that's a totally misleading barometer). So, we might not get the wholesale displacement of collectors that other hobbies have seen, but I do think we'll get it at the margin, while the average age of participants will slowly continue to increase over time. Might not be a problem in the near-term, but it will be at some point. Not that in the absence of these secular factors that it's guaranteed to be all up, up and away - you can always get a bust driven by other things as well (obviously this is much harder to predict, though, as I learned to my chagrin in the first half of the 2000s).

[Mmehdy]

Sure there are going to be new collectors coming in...but down the road not to buy a comic book they can't touch, read, or feel at a very high and inflated price.

 

No they are gonna get graphic novels, reprints or go on line

 

The graded comic bookin a holder is gonna be 98% (if it isn't now) Speculator who buys and sells the comic book commodity as a widget. If you go on gold, a lot of true collectors have not slabbed there collection...major collections UNNTIL the decide to sell at speculator prices (worlds highest price).

 

So what new GEN kid is gonna want all star comics #15 in a slab......again we are in a market frenzy......brought on by the thinking...."somebody is gonna pay more", yogu book is worth 5x value if it is slabbed....and the whole world wants your book according to the auction houses.

 

So what is it you actually fear Mitch? That people won't read physical comics anymore or that they won't have the same monetary value for older books?

.

 

My fear is simple,.... That people will say comics used to be valuable before they crashed like cards and stamps ... Disrespect... Going back to the old days... And losing 40 years of building respect for the comic book world to a few greedy speculators who never gavel a dammm in the first place... They will run like rats off a sinking ship... And think of all the articles ... Comic market collaspes... I don't look forward to it.