Future of the Top 10 SA comics (5 years from now)?

[Chillax23]

..... I'm assuming by "Top 10" we are referring to value in OPG. This list above is actually not too bad...... but with the influence on value that scarcity in grade plays on demand, I just don't see ASM 1, X-Men 1, or DD 1 supplanting the FF on this list. I also don't see SC 4 ever outperforming Hulk 1. The only reason I could see SC 4 so high on the list is historical significance, which should, conversely apply to the FF as well. We also may be applying too much influence on Movie Hype/ "street cred" as a factor. If Box Office success is such a prime driver, why is Avengers 1 not on this list ? Books generally spike BEFORE a movie is released, not after, when prices generally correct or stabilize. I'm also not understanding why SC 22 is so high on the list..... D.C. has already blown one GL movie. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

In regards to a few things above:

SC4 is right around par with IH1 in terms of pricing, though the "recorded" data is very scarce for the SC4 book is around 3k per point in lower grades, just like the Hulk is. Agree FF is well dug in as a big key and just because the movie bombed (lets be honest it didn't stand a chance as everyone wants it to go to marvel). AV1 is too common to be higher on the list which reduces its credit. SC22 shouldn't be that high either agreed.

 

If the list was solely concerned with pure awesomeness then SC22 should be that high - but since it is not and value has to play a role, while it should not be #6 it certainly belongs at #10 (maybe 1 spot higher in 5 years if the current trends continue).

 

I just don't think ST110 will maintain/increase its value long term - i.e., in 5-10 years. It is a key book, but no more important than several other key books that are not in the top 10 (i.e., Avengers 1 and 4, DD1, Action Comics 252, Adventure 247)

[AmazingSaul]

..... I'm assuming by "Top 10" we are referring to value in OPG. This list above is actually not too bad...... but with the influence on value that scarcity in grade plays on demand, I just don't see ASM 1, X-Men 1, or DD 1 supplanting the FF on this list. I also don't see SC 4 ever outperforming Hulk 1. The only reason I could see SC 4 so high on the list is historical significance, which should, conversely apply to the FF as well. We also may be applying too much influence on Movie Hype/ "street cred" as a factor. If Box Office success is such a prime driver, why is Avengers 1 not on this list ? Books generally spike BEFORE a movie is released, not after, when prices generally correct or stabilize. I'm also not understanding why SC 22 is so high on the list..... D.C. has already blown one GL movie. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

In regards to a few things above:

SC4 is right around par with IH1 in terms of pricing, though the "recorded" data is very scarce for the SC4 book is around 3k per point in lower grades, just like the Hulk is. Agree FF is well dug in as a big key and just because the movie bombed (lets be honest it didn't stand a chance as everyone wants it to go to marvel). AV1 is too common to be higher on the list which reduces its credit. SC22 shouldn't be that high either agreed.

 

If the list was solely concerned with pure awesomeness then SC22 should be that high - but since it is not and value has to play a role, while it should not be #6 it certainly belongs at #10 (maybe 1 spot higher in 5 years if the current trends continue).

 

I just don't think ST110 will maintain/increase its value long term - i.e., in 5-10 years. It is a key book, but no more important than several other key books that are not in the top 10 (i.e., Avengers 1 and 4, DD1, Action Comics 252, Adventure 247)

 

I think with the JLA movie in the works, SC22 will increase in price. Right now would be the time to get a higher grade copy before the price increase.

 

SC22 is actually one of my favorite stories in the silver age. As long as the movie or movies where he appears are decent or good there is plenty of hope.

[AmazingSaul]

for those of us who can't (or won't) afford to buy those top ten type books-- this is like ranking top models. Fun but not very productive.

Daredevil #1 and X-MEN #1 are good bets to go up, even in low grades over the next 5 years.

 

I am a little skeptical on X men 1. It has the most movies and merchandise yet the lower grades are still very affordable. You can still get a nice copy for about 3k. Maybe it's because there's too many? How much more can another movie help it? It's hard but I feel maybe in 10 years not 5... Just seems too soon.

[jimjum12]

..... I'm assuming by "Top 10" we are referring to value in OPG. This list above is actually not too bad...... but with the influence on value that scarcity in grade plays on demand, I just don't see ASM 1, X-Men 1, or DD 1 supplanting the FF on this list. I also don't see SC 4 ever outperforming Hulk 1. The only reason I could see SC 4 so high on the list is historical significance, which should, conversely apply to the FF as well. We also may be applying too much influence on Movie Hype/ "street cred" as a factor. If Box Office success is such a prime driver, why is Avengers 1 not on this list ? Books generally spike BEFORE a movie is released, not after, when prices generally correct or stabilize. I'm also not understanding why SC 22 is so high on the list..... D.C. has already blown one GL movie. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

In regards to a few things above:

SC4 is right around par with IH1 in terms of pricing, though the "recorded" data is very scarce for the SC4 book is around 3k per point in lower grades, just like the Hulk is. Agree FF is well dug in as a big key and just because the movie bombed (lets be honest it didn't stand a chance as everyone wants it to go to marvel). AV1 is too common to be higher on the list which reduces its credit. SC22 shouldn't be that high either agreed.

 

If the list was solely concerned with pure awesomeness then SC22 should be that high - but since it is not and value has to play a role, while it should not be #6 it certainly belongs at #10 (maybe 1 spot higher in 5 years if the current trends continue).

 

I just don't think ST110 will maintain/increase its value long term - i.e., in 5-10 years. It is a key book, but no more important than several other key books that are not in the top 10 (i.e., Avengers 1 and 4, DD1, Action Comics 252, Adventure 247)

 

..... you mention several books above that I find to be very compelling as possible "fast risers" in the next 5 years. The number of female hobbyists is on a steady rise and Supergirl is poised to become a hot franchise..... so Action 252 .....and if D.C. could ever let go of their insistence on near terminal procrastination, The LSH franchise is SO ripe with potential..... ADV 247 ...... As far as AV 1 and 4 in regards to availability, I recall a statement once made by David Q Bowers. For reference sake, Bowers started selling coins in the 50's for fun and profit while he was still in High School. He went on to become one of the most well known and successful coin dealers in the history of that hobby. But I digress. His comment, very astute for a high schooler, was made in reference to his decision to pursue coin dealing as a full time career. He noted that coins were a good choice because they were (a) in demand, and (b) had a supply to MEET the demand. An item can be so rare that it basically defies market analysis. High Grade examples of SC 4, Hulk 1, and FF 1 come close to being that way..... as does ADV 247 to some degree. Using the OPG top 10 list as a baseline can be misleading, due to it's focus on value in high grade. As has been alluded to in previous posts, demand is as crucial as scarcity to a large degree..... and I've yet to see any real attempts at data analysis in regards to that factor...... so, therefore, it is difficult to speculate from the armchair. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[VintageComics]

So what is your top 10? I see the comments but you did not list your top 10.

 

Pushy pushy.

 

1 - AF15

2 - SC 4

3 - Hulk 1

4 - BB 28

5 - ASM 1 (even though I don't like it here)

6 - SC 22

7 - TOS 39

8 - JIM 83

9 - XM 1

10 - DD 1

 

 

 

..... I'm assuming by "Top 10" we are referring to value in OPG. This list above is actually not too bad...... but with the influence on value that scarcity in grade plays on demand, I just don't see ASM 1, X-Men 1, or DD 1 supplanting the FF on this list. I also don't see SC 4 ever outperforming Hulk 1. The only reason I could see SC 4 so high on the list is historical significance, which should, conversely apply to the FF as well. We also may be applying too much influence on Movie Hype/ "street cred" as a factor. If Box Office success is such a prime driver, why is Avengers 1 not on this list ? Books generally spike BEFORE a movie is released, not after, when prices generally correct or stabilize. I'm also not understanding why SC 22 is so high on the list..... D.C. has already blown one GL movie. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

The voice of reason and experience.

 

Until a few years ago Showcase #4 was a dead book. I agree that it was historically important and extremely cool but it didn't sell.

 

SC 22 is high on the list because there is another GL movie push coming.

 

 

 

 

[sfcityduck]

I'm not convinced that in the long term movies and tv really matter that much.

 

If they do, then shouldn't the fast risers be SC 4, ST 110, BB 28, Adv. 252, DD 1, TTA 27?

 

And shouldn't the big losers be AF 15, FF 1, and X-Men 1?

[jimjum12]

I'm not convinced that in the long term movies and tv really matter that much.

 

If they do, then shouldn't the fast risers be SC 4, ST 110, BB 28, Adv. 252, DD 1, TTA 27?

 

And shouldn't the big losers be AF 15, FF 1, and X-Men 1?

 

... I couldn't agree more.... my questions were mostly rhetorical. I've always believed that the market for high end keys has always been a totally different animal than popular culture merchandising and even the comic collecting market in general. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Iceman399]

So what is your top 10? I see the comments but you did not list your top 10.

 

Pushy pushy.

 

1 - AF15

2 - SC 4

3 - Hulk 1

4 - BB 28

5 - ASM 1 (even though I don't like it here)

6 - SC 22

7 - TOS 39

8 - JIM 83

9 - XM 1

10 - DD 1

 

 

 

..... I'm assuming by "Top 10" we are referring to value in OPG. This list above is actually not too bad...... but with the influence on value that scarcity in grade plays on demand, I just don't see ASM 1, X-Men 1, or DD 1 supplanting the FF on this list. I also don't see SC 4 ever outperforming Hulk 1. The only reason I could see SC 4 so high on the list is historical significance, which should, conversely apply to the FF as well. We also may be applying too much influence on Movie Hype/ "street cred" as a factor. If Box Office success is such a prime driver, why is Avengers 1 not on this list ? Books generally spike BEFORE a movie is released, not after, when prices generally correct or stabilize. I'm also not understanding why SC 22 is so high on the list..... D.C. has already blown one GL movie. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

The voice of reason and experience.

 

Until a few years ago Showcase #4 was a dead book. I agree that it was historically important and extremely cool but it didn't sell.

 

SC 22 is high on the list because there is another GL movie push coming.

 

 

 

 

Showcase 4 didn't sell? Though I don't have the experience first hand that you would or Bob/Rick etc. But just looking back several years I found this data (again using GPA as its the easiest data to pull from):

 

I chose CGC 3.0 as this seems to be a good starting point for a low grade book that won't depend heavily on eye appeal that can vary greatly like a 0.5 or 1.0

 

Hulk 1 in 2015

6 total sales

 

Hulk 1 in 2011

3 recorded sales averaging $2390

 

Hulk 1 in 2007

4 recorded sales averaging $1618

 

Showcase 4 in 2015

1 sale in 2015

 

Showcase 4 in 2011

2 recorded sales averaging $2697

 

Showcase 4 in 2007

1 sale at $2032

 

Based on that I don't think you can easily conclude that Showcase 4 didn't sell. I think it sells for the same frequency it did then as it does now. Its just a book that doesn't trade hands often.

 

*edit* Though the showcase 4 numbers are clearly lower than the IH numbers when you compare census numbers you have a whopping 3.66:1 ratio for IH:SC

 

[jimjum12]

...... The whole Flash run was basically dead for a long time. The show has changed that to some degree.... and, I admit, it's surprisingly good. It's easily the most scarce of the SA Keys..... and while this is pure speculation on my part, I believe if it's scarcity level was on par with IH 1, the pricepoint for SC 4 would be much, much lower. I think scarcity is the driving force with the book. It wasn't that long ago that the 9.6 "Newsboy copy was sold, and the result, considering the books scarcity in that condition, was rather underwhelming. I still approach it reverently as the first SA book GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Iceman399]

...... The whole Flash run was basically dead for a long time. The show has changed that to some degree.... and, I admit, it's surprisingly good. It's easily the most scarce of the SA Keys..... and while this is pure speculation on my part, I believe if it's scarcity level was on par with IH 1, the pricepoint for SC 4 would be much, much lower. I think scarcity is the driving force with the book. It wasn't that long ago that the 9.6 "Newsboy copy was sold, and the result, considering the books scarcity in that condition, was rather underwhelming. I still approach it reverently as the first SA book GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

100% agree there. Just like if the scarcity level of IH was at the same as AF15 IH wouldn't have the same price point it does now. Both things going into price evaluation

 

Scarcity

Popularity

[jimjum12]

...... The whole Flash run was basically dead for a long time. The show has changed that to some degree.... and, I admit, it's surprisingly good. It's easily the most scarce of the SA Keys..... and while this is pure speculation on my part, I believe if it's scarcity level was on par with IH 1, the pricepoint for SC 4 would be much, much lower. I think scarcity is the driving force with the book. It wasn't that long ago that the 9.6 "Newsboy copy was sold, and the result, considering the books scarcity in that condition, was rather underwhelming. I still approach it reverently as the first SA book GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

100% agree there. Just like if the scarcity level of IH was at the same as AF15 IH wouldn't have the same price point it does now. Both things going into price evaluation

 

Scarcity

Popularity

 

(thumbs u

 

.... like I mentioned earlier.... what I would really like to see is some collected quantifiable data in regards to demand. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Iceman399]

...... The whole Flash run was basically dead for a long time. The show has changed that to some degree.... and, I admit, it's surprisingly good. It's easily the most scarce of the SA Keys..... and while this is pure speculation on my part, I believe if it's scarcity level was on par with IH 1, the pricepoint for SC 4 would be much, much lower. I think scarcity is the driving force with the book. It wasn't that long ago that the 9.6 "Newsboy copy was sold, and the result, considering the books scarcity in that condition, was rather underwhelming. I still approach it reverently as the first SA book GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

100% agree there. Just like if the scarcity level of IH was at the same as AF15 IH wouldn't have the same price point it does now. Both things going into price evaluation

 

Scarcity

Popularity

 

(thumbs u

 

.... like I mentioned earlier.... what I would really like to see is some collected quantifiable data in regards to demand. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Which is next to impossible that data would only be observational data which is not really quantifiable.

 

Observational data would put SC4 > AF15 > IH1 based solely on the WTB threads on the boards here...

[jimjum12]

The ship has probably already sailed, but an average of unique bids per grade point divided by number of auctions by grade point would have helped (...per specific franchise/issue). The number of views per specific auction possibly..... those things would aide in formulating a more educated viewpoint. So many folks base the demand of a vintage book on the sales figures of it's most recent print incarnation, which is about as "apples and oranges" as we can get. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.... while mass appeal and "investment potential" may play a role in the justification of someone's decision to make a high end luxury purchase, I still believe that the typical person buying these things are people who can afford to buy what they want and doing just that...... buying what they WANT. As for me..... I'll take that solid and shiny FF 1, thank you please

[miraclemet]

Current

1. Amazing Fantasy #15

2. Incredible Hulk #1

3. Fantastic Four #1

4. Showcase #4

5. Amazing Spider-Man #1

6. Journey Into Mystery #83

7. Brave and the Bold #28

8. X-Men #1

9. Tales of Suspense #39

10 Tales to Astonish #27

 

with SC22 and Avengers 1 on the outside looking in.

 

In 5 years

 

1. Amazing Fantasy #15

2. Showcase #4

3. Incredible Hulk #1

4. Brave and the Bold #28 (on the heels of the new success of the DC movie brand and the JLA movie)

5. Amazing Spider-Man #1 (getting heat following the inclusion in the MU movies, and the strato-prices of AF15)

6. Journey Into Mystery #83

7. Fantastic Four #1

8. X-Men #1

9. Showcase 22 (coming off a successful relaunch of the GL brand movie)

10 Avengers 1 (in 5 years we'll be almost 10 years past the Avengers movie, and those kid fans might have the $$ to buy a key)

 

off the list

Tales of Suspense #39 (only because the character is so wildly different styled than the current and movie version)

Tales to Astonish #27 (still popular thanks to inclusion in addition MU movies, but the heat will settle a bit)

[Iceman399]

So many folks base the demand of a vintage book on the sales figures of it's most recent print incarnation, which is about as "apples and oranges" as we can get. GOD BLESS...

 

I have never thought or heard of this. Mind you I think its an absolutely silly way to examine a books vintage value/popularity.

 

Lets do some variants, incentives, have a good creative team, terrible artist and delayed publication schedule.

[sagii]

Five years from now?

 

AF 15

TOS 39

IH 1

SC 4

FF 1

Av 1

B&B 28

Xmen 1

JIM 83

Av 4

 

[BarryAllen]

Five years from now?

 

AF 15

TOS 39

IH 1

SC 4

FF 1

Av 1

B&B 28

Xmen 1

JIM 83

Av 4

 

I don't understand Avengers 4. It isn't any more significant than Cap 100 or other random Cap "semi-key" books except to comic enthusiasts and more importantly (much more importantly) prices are relatively FLAT versus 2011. Almost zero growth in this book after 2 Captain America and 2 Avengers movies. This book is not going to grow rapidly enough to even scratch the bottom of the top ten...

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off). Maybe it doesn't fall off this list in 5 years, but it will certainly continue to drop as the growth of the other books aggressively eclipse it. Something needs to change for this book for its place to be held other than the collective "hope" of aging enthusiasts...

[sfcityduck]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

[BarryAllen]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

[Sqeggs]

Five years from now!

 

1-AF 15

2-X-Men 1

3-TOS 39

4-BB 28

5-HULK 1

6- DAREDEVIL 1

7-Strange Tales 110

8-JIM 83

9-SC 4

10-FF 1(barely hanging on to the top 10. How the mighty have fallen!).

 

As reasonable a list as any, although count me as being in the camp that's skeptical of the staying power of ST 110.

I think Doctor Strange is going to be a huge movie at box office, certainly bigger than Ant-Man or the latest Fantastic Four

Benedict Cumberbatch the guy playing Doctor Strange is very popular with millennials.

 

Maybe. I bow to no one in my admiration for Cumberbatch, but he couldn't keep The Fifth Estate from being one of the bigger bombs in recent Hollywood history. I would say the film could go either way, but however it does, I wouldn't bet on ST 110 over FF 1 in the long run.

 

 

Well the subject matter kept most people away, and was not produced to do hundreds of millions at the box office like Dr Strange, a potential Marvel blockbuster, is being crafted to do.. Very different film projects with very different expectations.

 

Oh, certainly The Fifth State was never going to do huge numbers. But it did receive a wide release and did essentially no business. So it very much underperformed the studio's expectations.

 

My point is that I don't think Cumberbatch has enough of a fan base to drive a Dr. Strange movie beyond what it would otherwise do.