Do comics ever go down in price?

[Foolkiller]

People just aren't going to make the kind of income and wealth gains like they have in the past with all the markets starting at such inflated levels and globalization and demographics putting the squeeze on people thinking that they're entering their prime earning/investing years. And to keep prices rising into the 4, 5 and 6 figures for a lot of these books (which will get sold at some point), the market is going to need to see some big cash flowing into the market.

 

It's this thought that makes me believe that Gene's prediction on the direction of the comic book market is correct.

 

The thing I find hard to believe is that the books are going to keep going up in price over the long haul. As evidence, many people argue that over time the guide and actual realized sales have continued to escalate. I do not predict a crash, but I certainly forsee a leveling off, a gradual cooling off and later a slight decline on higher end books, simply for factors that are impacted by the outside economic forces that will make some of the power players with money to reconsider just how much they are willing to pay for certain books.

[Norrin_Radd]

What simple demographic analysis shows that there is going to be a lot of supply hitting the market starting in 5-10 years? Do we have an accurate demographic of what ages comic collectors are and when they are going to sell? I would think any baby boomers who have hung onto old collections would have slabbed and sold them in the rising market of the last few years. What other group will be selling on mass in the next decade?

 

 

Where are the new collectors going to come from to keep absorbing comics at a rising clip? The same question could have been raised anytime in the last 20 years. The truth is that you can't accurately forecast how the population of comic collectors is going to change in the future. There have been positive new dynamics which have changed the hobby in the past and there may well be positive trends in the future that increase participation in the hobby.

 

 

Your argument appears to be two-fold. The hobby is going to shrink due to cultural trends...

 

"Readership levels are rebounding, but from a tiny base - is this sustainable in the long-term? Cultural trends are favoring videogames and other interactive, digital, disposable entertainment."

 

And what people are in the hobby won't be able to contintue to push up prices.

 

"People just aren't going to make the kind of income and wealth gains like they have in the past with all the markets starting at such inflated levels."

 

I can see you point and how is colors your perception of the future of collecting expensive comics. How can prices increase if no one new enters the hobby and if most of those collectors are straped for cash?

 

But I respectfully disagree with your outlook.

[Foolkiller]

There have been positive new dynamics which have changed the hobby in the past and there may well be positive trends in the future that increase participation in the hobby.

 

I agree with the first part of your statement, but I think it's bleak on your second point, only because I don't see Marvel or DC really doing anything revolutionary to bring new readers to the fold. They've done plenty to excite their current readers, but we don't have an infusion of this new comic collector into the market. It seems like the average age is getting older.

[Aman619]

you know, when I try to guage the issue of a future limited supply of qualified buyers of 4, 5 and 6 figure comics ... I come back to the current reality as a guide. Comics are pretty thinly traded NOW! There arent all that many buyers in that category today, at the "peak". Its not like our ranks will thin from tens of millions down a few hundred thousand collectors. THAT would be a crash of immense proportions.

 

Today we have maybe a dozen players above 100K a book, and not all of them pay all cash. At 5 figures there are what? Fifty?? A hundred?? Will these kinds of numbers of customers be that hard to replace?? If you could figure out how many back issue buyers there are now, and their ages, you might come up with a reasonable scenario, wherein enough of these comics lovers accrue the cash to step up and take one of the FEW seats left vacant by the Boomer retirements and whatever financial catastrophes acomin that thin the ranks at the top.

 

I think one of our hobby ironic strengths IS its insularity from the national economy as a whole BECAUSE its such an obscure part of the collective psyche and economy of the nation... at least at the top end. What will happen down below may be another matter. Those who scrimp and save to buy $300 books just might have to buy food instead.

[Norrin_Radd]

There have been positive new dynamics which have changed the hobby in the past and there may well be positive trends in the future that increase participation in the hobby.

 

I agree with the first part of your statement, but I think it's bleak on your second point, only because I don't see Marvel or DC really doing anything revolutionary to bring new readers to the fold.

 

Of course you don't see it, it hasn't happened yet. Did anyone see eBay coming and how that would change the hobby? But it has done wonders for collecting back issues.

 

I think eventually things will come to a head and the Big Two will have to get off of their asses and do more to bring new readers into the fold. They may already be starting to move in that direction. Also, independent comic publisher may be more at the forefront of hooking new readers.

 

Time will tell.

[Foolkiller]

well, I'm sure more comic collectors would hope that you would be correct. But I think people could have predicted that technology might change the way comics were bought, traded and sold. As for this as of yet unhappened event, well, I think it's sort of a convenient way of supporting your argument by predicting something will happen, but we just have no idea what it is. although, I think historically, you're correct in saying that the pronouncement of the death of the comic market has been greatly exaggerated in the past, so we ought not pronounce it DOA quite yet.

 

There have been positive new dynamics which have changed the hobby in the past and there may well be positive trends in the future that increase participation in the hobby.

 

I agree with the first part of your statement, but I think it's bleak on your second point, only because I don't see Marvel or DC really doing anything revolutionary to bring new readers to the fold.

 

Of course you don't see it, it hasn't happened yet. Did anyone see eBay coming and how that would change the hobby? But it has done wonders for collecting back issues.

 

I think eventually things will come to a head and the Big Two will have to get off of their asses and do more to bring new readers into the fold. They may already be starting to move in that direction. Also, independent comic publisher may be more at the forefront of hooking new readers.

 

Time will tell.

[delekkerste]

I think one of our hobby ironic strengths IS its insularity from the national economy as a whole BECAUSE its such an obscure part of the collective psyche and economy of the nation... at least at the top end. What will happen down below may be another matter. Those who scrimp and save to buy $300 books just might have to buy food instead.

 

Aman, I strongly disagree with this statement. Sure, eBay and CGC have done wonders for the hobby, but would prices really be as high as they are now if comic collectors didn't leverage themselves to the hilt like everyone else, cash out home equity loans, etc. (i.e., participate in the credit/consumption euphoria that has been going on since the 1990s)? Demographic and economic trends impact people in our hobby as much as the next guy. Even the BSDs and MSDs in the hobby might have cause for concern if their home values and stock portfolios take a hit in the coming years or their businesses hit hard times. It's not like the rich and near-rich don't ever experience financial hardship and it's not like they haven't been binging on credit like everyone else (who do you think is buying all the luxury goods, 6-figure sports cars, 7-figure paintings and $3 million+ homes out there??)

[delekkerste]

well, I'm sure more comic collectors would hope that you would be correct.

 

Exactly. If we were talking about some other hobby that is going to be affected, IMO, by many of the same trends influencing the comic market, I wonder if Norrin would be so sanguine about the prospects for that hobby. It seems as though we are being asked to make a huge leap of faith regarding some unforeseen events that are going to propel the comic market to greater glory while ignoring the metaphysically certain events ("demography is destiny") that will affect the market in the coming years (I think just about anyone on the Boards realizes that it's pretty far-fetched to think that the Baby Boomers have already sold their collections - if anything, and I'm sure many collectors and especially dealers here would concur, they are likely to have been net buyers in the past 5 years along with everybody else).

[jbud73]

Ok, let me preface with a few things first - knowing what I know about macro-economic demography, I should stop buying comics right now. Any rational decision process would dictate this, but I guess the reason rational decision making never made it as a theory is because people are not rational.

 

Have a good look at Gene's signature line - its pretty much correct. Even with the advances in science and health care in general, a large blip on the demographic scale is going to be absorbed. Most demographers refer to the Baby Boom as the Black Plague in reverse. The influence of the Boom has been the number 1 impact on overall consumer economics for the last 3 decades. Im talking EVERYTHING, not just comics. In about 10 years the first wave of Boomers are going to stop breathing oxygen in mass quantities.

 

There will be a consumer gap which will extend to all markets, comics will not be immune. Will high grade comic books fetch big dollars YES. Will the hobby die out and everybody burn their books? NO. But who will fill the gap? Will the next 2-3 generations, because that is the influence that Baby Boomers have relatively speaking whole heartedly embrace all aspects of popular culture? I'm skeptical. I do not think Gene is talking Doom and Gloom, he's discussing reality. The reality is that Macro-economics, core supply demand economics are going to CHANGE. Every market will be affected differently however there will be an impact.

 

A few points that may help shore up the demand side in comics, please feel free to disagree Gene, but here are some conisderations.

 

1. Immigration: North American culture has benefitted greatly from immigration many of its GDP leaps can be tied to increases in population from other areas of the world. Immigrants usually try to assimilate existing culture in order to feel a sense of ownership, or belonging. Since I do not think BB culture will fade into obscurity - their influnece was too vast for too long a period, their may be positives benefits to pop culture of which comics are an entrenched part.

 

2. Antique Status: In 10-15 years some of the earliest GA books will start approaching that 100 year barrier and thus I believe have the potential to achieve elite anitque status. More than speculation, individuals with excessive disposable income tend to delve into areas like Art, not because they have any appeciation, but moreover for a sense of status and heirarchy. Comics could enter this realm as they get to be true antiques, or rare symbols of a now historical cultural generation.

 

I'm sure there are other Outside the Box factors, there always are, unforseen which will have various impacts in the hobby - But Demographic Destiny as Gene so aptly puts it will be a primary factor in the next decade or so.

[shrunkenhead]

 

2. Antique Status: In 10-15 years some of the earliest GA books will start approaching that 100 year barrier and thus I believe have the potential to achieve elite anitque status. More than speculation, individuals with excessive disposable income tend to delve into areas like Art, not because they have any appeciation, but moreover for a sense of status and heirarchy. Comics could enter this realm as they get to be true antiques, or rare symbols of a now historical cultural generation.

 

 

This seems quite plausible to me. Who would be surprised if Action #1 has a tremendous spike in price on its 100th anniversary? Granted that's a ways away, but the principle makes sense..

 

I don't think that Gene is a gloom and doomer, but I don't think that comics will go the way of the tulip, either. Quality material will endure. You guys'll see.

[jbud73]

No I don't think Comics are going the way of the Dinosaur. However, one of the OS Advisors said (paraphrasing) ' Invest in HG BA and in 20 years you will have your child college education' or something to that effect. I could not disagree more. Certain books transend comics, Action 1 is one of those books. Where I see the and I'm one of the people that buy these types of books - paying 500-1000 for a comic and thinking its going to be worth 10,000 in 5-10 years.

 

I buy comics because I appreciate the artform and the medium, but I know this is not the reason why everybody buys. Personally I start from the premise that I am flushing money down the toilet (Joe Collector) and go from there. I hope my comics don't lose all of their value, but Investment in someting tied to nostalgia is risky at the best of times.

[Aman619]

I think one of our hobby ironic strengths IS its insularity from the national economy as a whole BECAUSE its such an obscure part of the collective psyche and economy of the nation... at least at the top end. What will happen down below may be another matter. Those who scrimp and save to buy $300 books just might have to buy food instead.

 

Aman, I strongly disagree with this statement. Sure, eBay and CGC have done wonders for the hobby, but would prices really be as high as they are now if comic collectors didn't leverage themselves to the hilt like everyone else, cash out home equity loans, etc. (i.e., participate in the credit/consumption euphoria that has been going on since the 1990s)? Demographic and economic trends impact people in our hobby as much as the next guy. Even the BSDs and MSDs in the hobby might have cause for concern if their home values and stock portfolios take a hit in the coming years or their businesses hit hard times. It's not like the rich and near-rich don't ever experience financial hardship and it's not like they haven't been binging on credit like everyone else (who do you think is buying all the luxury goods, 6-figure sports cars, 7-figure paintings and $3 million+ homes out there??)

 

where we always differ is that i am talking at the tippy top. the 12 100K+ guys. and, by extension the very best books in the top shape. If when the economy tanks I dont know how that will affect the rest of the hobby. I guess it will directly relate to that % of "us" that are buying comics on margin. Just who and how many are saying that is?

 

Certainly an ebbing tide lowers all boats, and there is a lot of easy credit propping up real estate prices, and cars and other luxury goods. I guess this extends to comics buying..... but I still would like a realistic number as to how much and how deeply.

[Aman619]

 

said briefly:

Action#1 = YES. Action Force #4 = NO.

Amazing Fantasy #15 = YES Amazing adventures #37 = NO

 

and so on....

[FlyingDonut]

Although demography is destiny, why are we discounting the potential buying power of Generation Y, those born between 1979 and 1994? That generation is 65 million, the same size as the baby boomers, and more than three times the size of Generation X (1965-1979).

 

The first members of that cohort will turn 35 in 2014. Will there be a wave of nostalgia for early 90s books???

[dam60]

Although demography is destiny, why are we discounting the potential buying power of Generation Y, those born between 1979 and 1994? That generation is 65 million, the same size as the baby boomers, and more than three times the size of Generation X (1965-1979).

 

The first members of that cohort will turn 35 in 2014. Will there be a wave of nostalgia for early 90s books???

 

I firmly agree that the Generation Y ers at least till about 1985 or so (that's the year that my brother was born and my last real point of reference) will be interested in getting a few books but this is the thing - a "wave of nostalgia" is probably misplaced in the 90s books. How many people in my generation threw out their baseball cards or comic books? I sure as heck diddn't and when I finally did come back to the hobby there were all my books in the same boxes in my closet where they rested pretty much undisturbed for the last 10 years.

 

Granted, I did take the time to fill in runs and pick up new runs that had always interested me and I could never afford (take the Punisher for instance. That mini-series was north of $50 from 1990-1993 when I was really into it. That's a lot of money when you are 11-14. Hell, Ghost Rider 15 with the Glow in the Dark cover I couldn't afford when it was really hot but now you can't give that book away!). I personally gravitated towards vintage material and now love the GA but I don't know how many others will follow my path.

 

I question what my 11 and 13 year old cousins and their peers will be doing in twenty years. They dig the comic movies but haven't really made the leap into the books. I blame the outrageous prices of the new books these days more so than the lack of interest. I can tell you that if my kid wanted to spend $3 a pop on those pamphlets and not even get a full story I would aggressively try to push my kids into a different and more economical hobby.

 

DAM

[Foolkiller]

I can tell you that if my kid wanted to spend $3 a pop on those pamphlets and not even get a full story I would aggressively try to push my kids into a different and more economical hobby.

 

yup.

[october]

Trying to forecast economic trends one or two decades in advance is like trying to predict the weather a week from now. There are certain foreseeable features, but there are dozens you either fail to take into account or marginalize. The fact is, no one can predict what will happen to the comic, or any other, market in the non-immediate future. Here is a short list of factors that have not yet been discussed, but that could conceivably have a huge impact on the future market….

 

1. Large-scale interest in pop art

 

2. Distribution of comics in drug stores, supermarkets, ect

 

3. Increases in the minimum wage, decreases in average working hours or decreases in living costs

 

4. Comics embraced as a legitimate investment by non-collector, high profile speculators

 

5. TPB enter mainstream culture

 

6. Media popularization of comics (either through TV, movie, celeb culture, ect)

 

7. Renewed interest in reading among the young

 

8. The “big 2” dropping cover prices

 

You get the picture. My point is that trying to predict a system as inherently complex and unpredictable as a free market is really nothing more than speculation. Thinking that any one factor will have a determinative affect is just plain foolish. Not to mention the fact that most of us have a substantial financial or emotional commitment to our hobbies…a fact that makes our assessments something less than objective.

[delekkerste]

Although demography is destiny, why are we discounting the potential buying power of Generation Y, those born between 1979 and 1994? That generation is 65 million, the same size as the baby boomers, and more than three times the size of Generation X (1965-1979).

 

I think Gen Y is going to have a hard time of it. They'll be supporting all these Baby Boomers in retirement (via their inevitably higher taxes) and they'll be competing for jobs in an economy that is becoming far more global (and where the U.S. is at a decided disadvantage cost-wise). They will not have had the investment opportunities that we had become used to in the 1980s and 1990s. And what do you think the U.S. dollar will be worth by then? When Warren Buffett speaks of the "Sharecropper's Society" that the U.S. is becoming, what will be the consequences for Gen X and Gen Y going forward?

 

If anything, we should be looking what nostalgia items Chinese kids will be wanting to buy then, not what American kids of the '90s will be buying - they are unlikely to have the means and I think they will probably be far more nostalgic about '90s music, films, videogames, extreme sports, etc. than they will about the comics of the era. Whereas the Baby Boomers can look back and remember a time when comics were more ubiquitous, I doubt many Gen Yers will give comics a second thought when they grow older, even if they did have money to spend.

[Foolkiller]

Actually, at one point or another, all of these things have been brought up when we've discussed this issue before. Like most forecasting, nothing is a perfect science, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't be engaging in the conversation.

 

1 Large-scale interest in pop art

 

Is going to increase comic sales... how... ? this medium has been 80 years collecting comics as opposed to other forms of 'pop art'. I'm not sure I have any idea what you're talking about.

 

2. Distribution of comics in drug stores, supermarkets, ect

 

That was 40 years ago. It's 2005, not 1965.

 

3. Increases in the minimum wage, decreases in average working hours or decreases in living costs

 

Those are adjusted to inflation, but to real value. Could you explain how on earth this is going to any way impact comic sales.

 

4. Comics embraced as a legitimate investment by non-collector, high profile speculators

 

What are you talking about? Aren't all of the big speculators dropping out right now? Legitimate investors, yeah, I see Bill Gates investing in an Action #1. Jerry Seinfeld loves Superman, so does Howard Stern, and I don't see either of those guys sinking "big money" into comics.

 

5. TPB enter mainstream culture

 

Okay, here's one I'll grant you. Sort of. Better distribution in bookstores, but where you get this idea TPBs are in mainstream culture is beyond me.

 

6. Media popularization of comics (either through TV, movie, celeb culture, ect)

 

Here's another one. Spider Man and X-Men have been great. Let's see how the rest do.

 

7. Renewed interest in reading among the young

 

reading, but not American Comics, Manga.

 

8. The “big 2” dropping cover prices

 

even more of

 

 

October with all due respect, this is a perfect example of the blindness of so many comic collectors in relation to reality.

[delekkerste]

Trying to forecast economic trends one or two decades in advance is like trying to predict the weather a week from now.

 

I disagree. I believe it was Ben Graham who said that, in the short-run, the market is like a voting machine, but in the long-run, it is like a weighing machine. For example, during the tech bubble years, who knew when the insanity would end, but anyone with half a brain knew that it couldn't last forever (i.e., the long-term conclusion was predictable, but the short-term action was not).

 

Obviously, no one can forecast the future with certainty. But those potential factors that you cited are all very low probability events. IMO, I think the factors I have cited are much more likely to influence the future course of prices and participation in the hobby. Objectively, I think it's hard to argue with that. I have no financial or emotional incentive to be biased in this way, and yet it seems as though those who would argue the contrary have automatically defaulted to a bullish stance. The only rationale I can think of doing so is to extrapolate the last 2 or 3 decades (let's face it, there wasn't really an established hobby before that, so let's not say that comics have been going up since the 1930s) indefinitely into the future.

 

Only time will tell, of course, but I really don't think I will be wrong on this. But let's touch base in 15 years and talk about it then.