GPAnalysis artificial inflation via eBay

[VinnyT]

I've been looking to pick up a Batman #1 New52 Sketch variant lately and have been really looking into past auctions, trends, etc. Over the last 12-18 months, the price of that book has SOARED, way past what it should considering it's only a 1:200. If you look at the last few sale prices, a CGC 9.8 goes steadily from 950 to 1000 to almost 1100. What's equally interesting is that you can get a signed 9.8 copy by Capulla for 1100 on eBay right now (and that's also what GPAnalysis shows the value of a 9.8 CGCSS).

 

Generally speaking, a blue label should be worth less than a yellow label, but in this case it's actually the opposite. So that got me thinking.

 

GPAnalysis incorporates all ebay auctions.. but the system would have absolutely no way of tracking whether or not a bidder actually paid -- or whether a transaction was later canceled. So if I wanted to artificially inflate the price of one of my books, I could ask a friend to buy a comic at a super high price - then just cancel the auction later. Do it again with another friend or two, and now you have a solid trend and the value of the book magically jumps...

 

Am i way off base here?

 

[Meeklo]

Careful…this board likes to jump to conclusions and assumptions. They may think you are asking "if it is okay to do this" or read this as "I'm a potential con artist who wants to scam people".

 

For a realistic answer…you are pretty much correct, but sometimes some canceled eBay sales have been removed from the GPA records. It doesn't look like that is common but it can happen.

 

Also, keep in mind that GPA is not as popular as this board seems to make it. I believe most people selling on eBay do not use it or even know of it. So trying to mark up GPA results would only attract the attention of a few users…now eBay's Sold and Completed is another story...

[1Cool]

Now if you could get Wizard to say your book is hot then you are golden.

[Kyle R.]

Now if you could get Wizard to say your book is hot then you are golden.

 

That's what spec sites are for......

[N/A]

I've been looking to pick up a Batman #1 New52 Sketch variant lately and have been really looking into past auctions, trends, etc. Over the last 12-18 months, the price of that book has SOARED, way past what it should considering it's only a 1:200. If you look at the last few sale prices, a CGC 9.8 goes steadily from 950 to 1000 to almost 1100. What's equally interesting is that you can get a signed 9.8 copy by Capulla for 1100 on eBay right now (and that's also what GPAnalysis shows the value of a 9.8 CGCSS).

 

Generally speaking, a blue label should be worth less than a yellow label, but in this case it's actually the opposite. So that got me thinking.

 

GPAnalysis incorporates all ebay auctions.. but the system would have absolutely no way of tracking whether or not a bidder actually paid -- or whether a transaction was later canceled. So if I wanted to artificially inflate the price of one of my books, I could ask a friend to buy a comic at a super high price - then just cancel the auction later. Do it again with another friend or two, and now you have a solid trend and the value of the book magically jumps...

 

Am i way off base here?

 

You are assuming a yellow sells for more than a universal. That is not always true and certainly not true when there are quite a few SS. Have you checked the census? In the current market a #1 of a popular title going from $950-$1,100 is not an overly significant jump.

[___]

I personally dislike the GPA tool. Doesn't capture everything and so many take it for gospel when it isn't. eBay is the large online auction site, you can simply look at "sold listings" to derive at what the current going rate is for a book. Yes you will always have transactions that end up being cancelled.

[jreezy]

GPA is not the end all be all. Also , ratios don't really matter if the book is in demand especially variants.

[awakeintheashes]

I've been looking to pick up a Batman #1 New52 Sketch variant lately and have been really looking into past auctions, trends, etc. Over the last 12-18 months, the price of that book has SOARED, way past what it should considering it's only a 1:200. If you look at the last few sale prices, a CGC 9.8 goes steadily from 950 to 1000 to almost 1100. What's equally interesting is that you can get a signed 9.8 copy by Capulla for 1100 on eBay right now (and that's also what GPAnalysis shows the value of a 9.8 CGCSS).

 

Generally speaking, a blue label should be worth less than a yellow label, but in this case it's actually the opposite. So that got me thinking.

 

GPAnalysis incorporates all ebay auctions.. but the system would have absolutely no way of tracking whether or not a bidder actually paid -- or whether a transaction was later canceled. So if I wanted to artificially inflate the price of one of my books, I could ask a friend to buy a comic at a super high price - then just cancel the auction later. Do it again with another friend or two, and now you have a solid trend and the value of the book magically jumps...

 

Am i way off base here?

Sellers can notify GPA of cancellations and often do. Somebody was doing what you mentioned to New Mutants #87 earlier this year.

[awakeintheashes]

Also, I don't see anything nefarious happening. As time goes on, some books become more sought after. The last sale in 2014 and the first sale in 2015 were six months apart. It's possible that supply dried up at the end of 2014 and demand continued to grow.

[valiantman]

Artificial inflation has always been possible... without using a "third party" like Ebay.

 

If a dealer wanted to say certain books were moving swiftly in their Overstreet report, it wouldn't matter if they actually were. Looking back through old Overstreets, it's obvious that either certain books only sold for certain dealers or those dealers were the only ones who had those books... because no other dealers were mentioning them in their reports. Wizard was the same song, second verse.

 

It's no different than the "special of the day" at a restaurant either being what's truly special that day... or what the manager really wants to get rid of.

 

GPAnalysis compiles all of the Ebay CGC sales (and other sale sites), so even if a market is being manipulated by someone, you can combine the GPAnalysis results with the UNSOLD books on sites like Ebay and determine whether you want to pay $X to receive Y.

 

Unsold books tell you that the demand isn't (currently) at that price level for that seller. If one seller is manipulating their sales, the same book at the same price won't sell for someone else. It will be unsold, sitting and waiting for an actual buyer.

 

GPAnalysis isn't perfect, doesn't claim to be, but you're far better off knowing what GPAnalysis says than just going by recent Ebay "sales" (super-limited version of GPA) or the Overstreet guide and a dealer's comments in his market report (the way it was for decades).

[IntoAnother]

I believe at this point many of the of Batman #1 sketch covers are now in personal collections. With fewer copies available on a book as sought after as a Batman #1 it was bound to continue to climb in price.

 

Keep in mind that the majority of collectors want a blue label, and only a blue label but they are not available often. In addition a Capullo only SS may not appeal to the SS crowd (yet I sold my only copy in November for $1250) who would prefer to pay the signature premium only if it were to have signatures by Snyder and Capullo.

 

It is most likely a $1000+ book now due to the lack of availability, high demand, and with the Batman/Superman movie buzz. I don't see it coming back down either without a large price correction or crash IMO.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

This thread has the perfect storm of GPA corruption, modern variant print-run assumptions and marketplace pricing assumptions to create some truly epic disagreements. I don't even think a seasoned board shill could have created a better topic... I can only hope the usual run of suspects come in and "drop knowledge" on everyone and get the thread locked with their normal polarizing grandstanding.

 

 

That being said: OP as others stated your suspicions on GPA are possible but likely will go unproven and your assumptions about the relative value of blue versus yellow label books is a leap in logic. I wouldn't lose sleep over this unless you are heavily invested in modern variants... In which case I recommend some valium and something to hang onto for the duration of the ride.

 

[IntoAnother]

This thread has the perfect storm of GPA corruption, modern variant print-run assumptions and marketplace pricing assumptions to create some truly epic disagreements. I don't even think a seasoned board shill could have created a better topic... I can only hope the usual run of suspects come in and "drop knowledge" on everyone and get the thread locked with their normal polarizing grandstanding.

 

 

That being said: OP as others stated your suspicions on GPA are possible but likely will go unproven and your assumptions about the relative value of blue versus yellow label books is a leap in logic. I wouldn't lose sleep over this unless you are heavily invested in modern variants... In which case I recommend some valium and something to hang onto for the duration of the ride.

 

 

Goofballs for variants

 

Or...

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

It is frightening how anti-knowledge this place has become.

 

Truly frightening.

 

[VinnyT]

Thanks all. It was just speculation on my part, so I appreciate the feedback. I haven't been involved in collecting for very long so I'm still learning the ropes.

 

Thanks again.

[VinnyT]

Also, just curious, why would a collector prefer a blue label to a yellow label? Because it's unblemished? I would imagine that a yellow would eventually hold higher value anyway...

[N/A]

Also, just curious, why would a collector prefer a blue label to a yellow label? Because it's unblemished? I would imagine that a yellow would eventually hold higher value anyway...

 

Blue label would hold value and have a wider range of buyers. A blue label can become a yellow. The reverse not so much. The SS crowd is a much smaller group than blue label which is a smaller group than raws.

 

Yellows can sell for more but it is the quantity vs blue label. Also the registry competition where SS is awarded more points so CGC can promote the program.

[Meeklo]

I usually always prefer a blue label...I'm not a huge fan of autographs. And I hate when I'm trying to find a rare book, and all I can find are the more expensive yellow labels. Just because someone wanted to eventually squeeze more money out of a buyer, they had to go and turn a $500 book into a $800 book.

[Kyle R.]

Plus, the signature RUINS the cover..!!!

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I usually always prefer a blue label...I'm not a huge fan of autographs. And I hate when I'm trying to find a rare book, and all I can find are the more expensive yellow labels. Just because someone wanted to eventually squeeze more money out of a buyer, they had to go and turn a $500 book into a $800 book.

 

As long as there are people willing to pay that $800, it will continue.

 

The good news for some is that the market has made a considerable correction, and yellow labels can now frequently be had for less than a comparable blue (I sold a 9.4 Thor #165 SS for $1375....the blue before that sold for $1700+. Oops.)

 

The good news about THAT is that, eventually, the creators won't feel so offended that people are "making money off of their signatures" (despite the fact that they happily let other people make money of their actual work), and so may stop charging Hollywood fees to sign things.

 

We shall see.