Is GPA (or any guide) a good indication of the current FMV of a book?

[1Cool]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

[IntoAnother]

The current market price of something means absolutely nothing if it's not selling at that price to me. The wishful thinking by some sellers does not mean the books value has increased to me due to an asking price.

 

GPA does capture outliers in both directions so overall it's a very sound tool to determine the average sale price for commonly sold books in my opinion. It is also useful to see the market trends from month to month.

[Vger7]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

I totally agree and as a buyer, I've made purchases based on where I see a particular book is heading, which often means paying above GPA. But as a seller, I've had to be realistic. Depending on the book and what I paid for it, I'm happy to let it go at a discount so that the buyer can feel they have the advantage. My only selling rule is not to sell for less than what I paid.

[StuporMan]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

If every SALE has been at $800, then the market value becomes $800. If every available copy is $800 and the market value isn't $800, they will sit until someone brings their market value down closer to actual market value. Sometimes there will be a slingshot effect where that same book was moving at $600 briskly, then sellers jack up their BINs to $800 and it sits for a couple weeks. If auction sales of the same book start to reach close to $800, you'll see that book start moving at $800 again.

 

I see a lot of people quote/use GPA data inaccurately. The last sale may show market value to one person at one sale, but the average value shows the trend. I usually go off of average value +/- 10% to make my decisions. That's where those up and down arrows become important too. Then again, GPA is selective in its data, so it isn't a comprehensive tool.

[1Cool]

Great discussion so far. I see it as a back and forth between the patient seller who doesn't mind letting a book sit for a couple weeks and the patient buyer who will wait for an auction to possibly get the book they want at a lower price or wait for the seller to come down a bit.

[Bomber-Bob]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

If every SALE has been at $800, then the market value becomes $800. If every available copy is $800 and the market value isn't $800, they will sit until someone brings their market value down closer to actual market value. Sometimes there will be a slingshot effect where that same book was moving at $600 briskly, then sellers jack up their BINs to $800 and it sits for a couple weeks. If auction sales of the same book start to reach close to $800, you'll see that book start moving at $800 again.

 

I see a lot of people quote/use GPA data inaccurately. The last sale may show market value to one person at one sale, but the average value shows the trend. I usually go off of average value +/- 10% to make my decisions. That's where those up and down arrows become important too. Then again, GPA is selective in its data, so it isn't a comprehensive tool.

 

While your analysis on the averages makes sense, both buyers and sellers will quote whichever

price is better for their situation. 90 day, 12 month, last sale, page quality of last sale, etc. whatever works better for them. Bargains can be had when the seller is not interpreting the data correctly. Knowledge of the eye appeal of the last sale also helps. Big honking crease 6.0 vs a loose centerfold 6.0 are not equal.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

Great discussion so far. I see it as a back and forth between the patient seller who doesn't mind letting a book sit for a couple weeks and the patient buyer who will wait for an auction to possibly get the book they want at a lower price or wait for the seller to come down a bit.

Common Krap is Common Krap. If a book is readily available, someone is going to sell at a reasonable price. The price the on Ebay pull out of their bottoms and the books rot on display instead of being sold. The prices of FMV are what the book is trading at for common stuff, and it takes more work to set a price on scarce books. But in the end, FMV is established through sales, not a window display.

[Meeklo]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

I totally agree and as a buyer, I've made purchases based on where I see a particular book is heading, which often means paying above GPA. But as a seller, I've had to be realistic. Depending on the book and what I paid for it, I'm happy to let it go at a discount so that the buyer can feel they have the advantage. My only selling rule is not to sell for less than what I paid.

 

This is starting to be a problem when comparing GPA to "paid for" numbers.

 

I have come across a lot of people lately who are selling a book for higher than GPA. When I ask them to come down to GPA, they respond that that is less then what they paid for it.

 

Then don't sell the book!!!

 

If you were dumb enough to pay more than GPA, then you cannot expect a buyer to also be dumb enough to buy it off of you. Hold onto to that book until GPA at least matches what you put into it. Otherwise take the loss.

[rapid08]

If the book has many entries in GPA, I tend to think 12 mo avg +/- std deviation is a good price. This filters out some of the outliers. To comment on previous arguments, 'for sale' prices have absolutely nothing to do with fair market value. Until something is sold and recorded, it's like it never happened. Which brings up another point that often you have sellers quoting 'private sale' prices. Since private sale prices can't be verified, they are completely BS to me. I'm not sure how anyone would take 'private sale' prices as a consideration, especially as a buyer.

[comix4fun]

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800?

 

 

 

 

 

Umm, no.

 

You're quoting the base "asking" price. Market price is based on completed sales only.

 

That concept explains why real estate appraisals use only final sale prices and not listing prices as comps.

[comix4fun]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

I totally agree and as a buyer, I've made purchases based on where I see a particular book is heading, which often means paying above GPA. But as a seller, I've had to be realistic. Depending on the book and what I paid for it, I'm happy to let it go at a discount so that the buyer can feel they have the advantage. My only selling rule is not to sell for less than what I paid.

 

This is starting to be a problem when comparing GPA to "paid for" numbers.

 

I have come across a lot of people lately who are selling a book for higher than GPA. When I ask them to come down to GPA, they respond that that is less then what they paid for it.

 

Then don't sell the book!!!

 

If you were dumb enough to pay more than GPA, then you cannot expect a buyer to also be dumb enough to buy it off of you. Hold onto to that book until GPA at least matches what you put into it. Otherwise take the loss.

 

 

Paying more than GPA doesn't make anyone dumb.

 

The entire comic market is based on the willingness of people to pay more, over time, than books had sold for in the past.

 

 

[thecopperagekids]

Great discussion so far. I see it as a back and forth between the patient seller who doesn't mind letting a book sit for a couple weeks and the patient buyer who will wait for an auction to possibly get the book they want at a lower price or wait for the seller to come down a bit.

 

With eBay, you have to be patient.

 

A couple weeks can be a couple of months, or more, actually.

 

Putting slabbed books or up in auction, unless it is right when a trailer pops.... pretty much guarantees you will get 25$-75% of the price would would get for your BIN price.

 

 

 

 

[Meeklo]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

I totally agree and as a buyer, I've made purchases based on where I see a particular book is heading, which often means paying above GPA. But as a seller, I've had to be realistic. Depending on the book and what I paid for it, I'm happy to let it go at a discount so that the buyer can feel they have the advantage. My only selling rule is not to sell for less than what I paid.

 

This is starting to be a problem when comparing GPA to "paid for" numbers.

 

I have come across a lot of people lately who are selling a book for higher than GPA. When I ask them to come down to GPA, they respond that that is less then what they paid for it.

 

Then don't sell the book!!!

 

If you were dumb enough to pay more than GPA, then you cannot expect a buyer to also be dumb enough to buy it off of you. Hold onto to that book until GPA at least matches what you put into it. Otherwise take the loss.

 

 

Paying more than GPA doesn't make anyone dumb.

 

The entire comic market is based on the willingness of people to pay more, over time, than books had sold for in the past.

 

 

Yeah...dumb is a strong word.

 

I would re-word it as "If you chose to overpay FMV (based of GPA or sold eBay listings) then you cannot expect any buyers from you to pay for your decision". So still, either hold on to the book and hope FMV catches up to what you paid for it or sell it at a loss and do a better job paying FMV in the future.

[blazingbob]

LMAO.

 

I guess my database of previous sales is "all fantasy".

 

 

[1Cool]

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800?

 

 

 

 

 

Umm, no.

 

You're quoting the base "asking" price. Market price is based on completed sales only.

 

That concept explains why real estate appraisals use only final sale prices and not listing prices as comps.

 

Good analogy. But if everyone in a hot neighborhood started asking 20% over the typical appraisal price wouldn't you have to pay the price asked if you wanted to buy a house in that neighborhood? You can always go find a house in another neighborhood but the price is appraisal +20% if you want in that neighborhood. By quoting previous sales you are talking about houses that have already sold which does you no good when trying to buy an available house.

[thecopperagekids]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

I totally agree and as a buyer, I've made purchases based on where I see a particular book is heading, which often means paying above GPA. But as a seller, I've had to be realistic. Depending on the book and what I paid for it, I'm happy to let it go at a discount so that the buyer can feel they have the advantage. My only selling rule is not to sell for less than what I paid.

 

This is starting to be a problem when comparing GPA to "paid for" numbers.

 

I have come across a lot of people lately who are selling a book for higher than GPA. When I ask them to come down to GPA, they respond that that is less then what they paid for it.

 

Then don't sell the book!!!

 

If you were dumb enough to pay more than GPA, then you cannot expect a buyer to also be dumb enough to buy it off of you. Hold onto to that book until GPA at least matches what you put into it. Otherwise take the loss.

 

 

Paying more than GPA doesn't make anyone dumb.

 

The entire comic market is based on the willingness of people to pay more, over time, than books had sold for in the past.

 

 

Yeah...dumb is a strong word.

 

I would re-word it as "If you chose to overpay FMV (based of GPA or sold eBay listings) then you cannot expect any buyers from you to pay for your decision". So still, either hold on to the book and hope FMV catches up to what you paid for it or sell it at a loss and do a better job paying FMV in the future.

 

No, "dumb" is the wrong word.

 

GPA, is a reference point...just like Overstreet is only a *guide*.

 

When pricing books, you have to be on top of market trends.

 

GPA reports sales AFTER they occur.Not before.

 

It isn't a damn crystal ball......Comix4fun and Bob's posts nailed this home already, actually.

 

 

[IntoAnother]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

I totally agree and as a buyer, I've made purchases based on where I see a particular book is heading, which often means paying above GPA. But as a seller, I've had to be realistic. Depending on the book and what I paid for it, I'm happy to let it go at a discount so that the buyer can feel they have the advantage. My only selling rule is not to sell for less than what I paid.

 

This is starting to be a problem when comparing GPA to "paid for" numbers.

 

I have come across a lot of people lately who are selling a book for higher than GPA. When I ask them to come down to GPA, they respond that that is less then what they paid for it.

 

Then don't sell the book!!!

 

If you were dumb enough to pay more than GPA, then you cannot expect a buyer to also be dumb enough to buy it off of you. Hold onto to that book until GPA at least matches what you put into it. Otherwise take the loss.

 

This is one of the more absurd things you've said, and that's saying a lot.

[blazingbob]

Wow, what did you guys do before GPA?

 

Prior to GPA all you had was the Overstreet price guide which was an annual publication.

 

Buying decisions were based on sales trends and price comparison at shows, websites etc.

 

You can either be a "Market Maker" or a "Market follower" which is a GPA argument I've heard since it started.

 

Which is what I referred to as "Toilet bowl pricing as the flush goes down".

 

If everybody refused to pay over GPA or even GPA books would slowly flush down to zero.

 

Sadly I see the "Let somebody else go first or unless it is validated by an auction result" your price is not relevant.

[miraclemet]

everyone else has already made my points.. but here's one

 

-What you paid for a book does not concern me beyond it possibly being a barrier for us coming to terms on a price.

 

If you overpaid vs the market... not my problem

if you paid market, and then the market dropped... not my problem.

 

If it's a relatively available book (i.e I can wait a few weeks and know there will be some on HA, ebAy or somewhere) then you have to move your price with the market if you are actually wanting to sell.

 

If you want to get over market (to match what you paid) and it's not a super scarce in demand book, then you are better off putting it away and waiting and hoping for a market adjustment in your favor.

[SquareChaos]

I've had several discussions about the going price of a book this last week and the buyer always quotes the GPA average as the price they will not exceed. A couple have sounded irritated when I decline their offer and ask them to point out an available copy of the book at that price and none can find a book but say they are patient and will just wait for a copy to come available. Inevitably a less patient buyer comes around and grabs the book at the price I asked for.

 

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800? If GPA says there has been 10 copies of a book sold in the last 12 months and the average is $675 then is the going price $675 even though there are no copies available at that price and a theoretically a bunch of the sales had to have been above $675 to make the average?

 

If you actually have a reason to think the book is worth more than the GPA price then that makes perfect sense, but if there is no real reason then I can understand why people would think you were putting the books up at a price that invited negotiation.

 

The buyers may have felt like you were wasting their time - sort of the inverse of the complaints I often see about the WTB forum.

 

This is just my speculation here BTW, I don't mean it to sound like a dig.