Is GPA (or any guide) a good indication of the current FMV of a book?

[blazingbob]

Everybody wants to be a dealer and pay wholesale and sell at full retail.

 

The need to be in at a instant profit is something that has crept into the market more and more over the years.

 

Patience to wait? Instant gratification is the "new collector"

[1Cool]

everyone else has already made my points.. but here's one

 

-What you paid for a book does not concern me beyond it possibly being a barrier for us coming to terms on a price.

 

If you overpaid vs the market... not my problem

if you paid market, and then the market dropped... not my problem.

 

If it's a relatively available book (i.e I can wait a few weeks and know there will be some on HA, ebAy or somewhere) then you have to move your price with the market if you are actually wanting to sell.

 

If you want to get over market (to match what you paid) and it's not a super scarce in demand book, then you are better off putting it away and waiting and hoping for a market adjustment in your favor.

 

Or put it up on a venue where people don't hold the GPA to be holy like E-Bay. Now if you want 2x GPA then even E-Bay is a problem but if you want 10%-20% over GPA averages then your best bet is to go where people seem to not care as much.

[SquareChaos]

 

Or put it up on a venue where people don't hold the GPA to be holy like E-Bay. Now if you want 2x GPA then even E-Bay is a problem but if you want 10%-20% over GPA averages then your best bet is to go where people seem to not care as much.

 

It sounds like your opinion is that GPA is not a good representation of FMV.

[miraclemet]

Or put it up on a venue where people don't hold the GPA to be holy like E-Bay. Now if you want 2x GPA then even E-Bay is a problem but if you want 10%-20% over GPA averages then your best bet is to go where people seem to not care as much.

 

yeah, though my point was what one pays for a book is irrelevant to a new transaction.

 

as far as eBay not being beholden to GPA, I've been in many auctions (when there are multiple bidders) that fly up to GPA average levels and then stall... so even eBay bidders either know GPA data, or the market is acting in accordance with what GPA is showing.

 

 

[IntoAnother]

 

Or put it up on a venue where people don't hold the GPA to be holy like E-Bay. Now if you want 2x GPA then even E-Bay is a problem but if you want 10%-20% over GPA averages then your best bet is to go where people seem to not care as much.

 

It sounds like your opinion is that GPA is not a good representation of FMV.

 

I'm starting to pick up that vibe as well.

 

This conversation should be made clear on what type of books are being discussed in regards to GPA. If it's mainly about "hot" books that are fairly common like ASM 300 or NM 98 then GPA is as good as it gets to determine a fair market price. If it's a blanket statement of GPA then it's more tricky.

 

Many of the books I collect do not hit the market often or are very limited in the grade I collect. So much so that I recently canceled my monthly GPA subscription because the history is either so dated or has none available.

[1Cool]

 

Or put it up on a venue where people don't hold the GPA to be holy like E-Bay. Now if you want 2x GPA then even E-Bay is a problem but if you want 10%-20% over GPA averages then your best bet is to go where people seem to not care as much.

 

It sounds like your opinion is that GPA is not a good representation of FMV.

 

It's a great way to get a starting point because it does document a ton of previous sales that took place in the recent past (90 average). But to say you will not go above the average seems limiting especially since about half the sales that make up the average are above the average. If there is a copy of the book available at GPA average then its a no brainer - you as a seller better set your price at the GPA average or lower.

[crassus]

Everybody wants to be a dealer and pay wholesale and sell at full retail.

The need to be in at a instant profit is something that has crept into the market more and more over the years.

 

Patience to wait? Instant gratification is the "new collector"

 

I agree completely with all of this. The part in bold above is imo the single most significant factor in shaping the current market dynamic. It has produced the paradoxical effect of crushing some value ranges on certain books to the extent that the OSPG is a joke and yet on the other hand has fed the speculative inflation that has also rendered the OSPG a joke. That GPA becomes a common reference point, with its instant stock-like price graphs, serves perfectly this dynamic.

[SquareChaos]

 

Or put it up on a venue where people don't hold the GPA to be holy like E-Bay. Now if you want 2x GPA then even E-Bay is a problem but if you want 10%-20% over GPA averages then your best bet is to go where people seem to not care as much.

 

It sounds like your opinion is that GPA is not a good representation of FMV.

 

It's a great way to get a starting point because it does document a ton of previous sales that took place in the recent past (90 average). But to say you will not go above the average seems limiting especially since about half the sales that make up the average are above the average. If there is a copy of the book available at GPA average then its a no brainer - you as a seller better set your price at the GPA average or lower.

 

I guess the same logic could be used by the buyer - half the selling prices were below GPA, why won't you sell it for below the average?

 

But I get your point. As I stated previously, I use it as a starting point. If there's a book with absolutely zero heat I tend to try to stick to it pretty closely. Though I will say... I believe GPA to be somewhat inflated at times since so much of their data includes eBay's 10%, but what are you gonna do? :shrug:

[1Cool]

Lets use real word examples - I got a PM about a Tomb of Dracula 10 CGC 9.4 that I've just started selling and set a price of $750 for it. I got a PM saying the last sale was for $650 and the 90 day average was less then the $750. The book seems to be pretty hot so I asked him to look at the other copies on the market right now and none are even close to $750. He said he couldn't go above the last sale of $650 and was confident he could find another at that price if he waited. I find more and more people (especially on the boards) will not go above the 90 day average no matter what book it is.

 

I do find this also happens on Facebook like with the Y: Last Man #1 CGC I recently sold. I had it listed up at $700 and didn't have a nibble. Dropped it to $650 and someone PMed me and said the GPA is $594 and he wanted it for that much shipped. I pointed out how hot the book is and the price other people were charging and he stuck to the 90 day average. I declined and sold it for $650 on the boards.

 

This is just a few examples of how prevalent sticking to the 90 day average has become.

[blazingbob]

Ebay's 10%? Paypal's 3%?

 

This is another big peeve of mine.

 

Ebay's 10% and Paypal's 3% are the COST OF DOING business as a retailer. If the book sells for $100 on Ebay it sold for $100, not $87 net to the seller.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if the college system shouldn't make understanding how business works a mandatory course.

 

I have costs when selling on my website. does that automatically mean the buyer is entitled to those if I sell on the boards with its Zero percent cost to the seller?

 

 

[comix4fun]

My question is two fold - if every copy of a book available is $800 or more then doesn't the current base market price become $800?

 

 

 

 

 

Umm, no.

 

You're quoting the base "asking" price. Market price is based on completed sales only.

 

That concept explains why real estate appraisals use only final sale prices and not listing prices as comps.

 

Good analogy. But if everyone in a hot neighborhood started asking 20% over the typical appraisal price wouldn't you have to pay the price asked if you wanted to buy a house in that neighborhood? You can always go find a house in another neighborhood but the price is appraisal +20% if you want in that neighborhood. By quoting previous sales you are talking about houses that have already sold which does you no good when trying to buy an available house.

 

 

Doesn't really alter the reality that market value is closed deal sale price.

 

When you buy a place the bank only deals in the reality of closed sales and not the fantasy of asking price.

[oakman29]

I know this may sound strange , but this is what my feelings are on the subject.

I research prices on all avenues, GPA, board members websites, most of all EBay.

When it really comes down to it. If the book looks nice and it's exactly what I want, I will buy for a premium price . disregarding eBay, or GPA.

 

[batman_fan]

I know this may sound strange , but this is what my feelings are on the subject.

I research prices on all avenues, GPA, board members websites, most of all EBay.

When it really comes down to it. If the book looks nice and it's exactly what I want, I will buy for a premium price . disregarding eBay, or GPA.

 

bang on ! GPA is far from the end all be all people seem to act like it is. It captures the very basic info of SOME transactions and provides limited information on the true grade and/or eye appeal of a book. Since CGC doesn't consider a lot of defects to affect the grade, it makes the numerical number on the label only of limited value.

[RockMyAmadeus]

GPA is only a record. It only records raw data. Like any data, it has to be analyzed before it can be used.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

I wouldn't mind sitting on a HG TOD 10 as it is not an easy book. You don't have to adhere to GPA, but if it's common like an iron fist 14, then you're just foolish.

[SquareChaos]

Ebay's 10%? Paypal's 3%?

 

This is another big peeve of mine.

 

Ebay's 10% and Paypal's 3% are the COST OF DOING business as a retailer. If the book sells for $100 on Ebay it sold for $100, not $87 net to the seller.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if the college system shouldn't make understanding how business works a mandatory course.

 

I have costs when selling on my website. does that automatically mean the buyer is entitled to those if I sell on the boards with its Zero percent cost to the seller?

 

 

I don't have a business degree, I have a science degree, so I can't comment with any authority ::

 

But what you're saying isn't exactly what I meant but that may be my fault.

[lizards2]

I know this may sound strange , but this is what my feelings are on the subject.

I research prices on all avenues, GPA, board members websites, most of all EBay.

When it really comes down to it. If the book looks nice and it's exactly what I want, I will buy for a premium price . disregarding eBay, or GPA.

 

Me too. Except in my case, the premium price is usually about 50% of GPA ::

[SquareChaos]

Lets use real word examples - I got a PM about a Tomb of Dracula 10 CGC 9.4 that I've just started selling and set a price of $750 for it. I got a PM saying the last sale was for $650 and the 90 day average was less then the $750. The book seems to be pretty hot so I asked him to look at the other copies on the market right now and none are even close to $750. He said he couldn't go above the last sale of $650 and was confident he could find another at that price if he waited. I find more and more people (especially on the boards) will not go above the 90 day average no matter what book it is.

 

I do find this also happens on Facebook like with the Y: Last Man #1 CGC I recently sold. I had it listed up at $700 and didn't have a nibble. Dropped it to $650 and someone PMed me and said the GPA is $594 and he wanted it for that much shipped. I pointed out how hot the book is and the price other people were charging and he stuck to the 90 day average. I declined and sold it for $650 on the boards.

 

This is just a few examples of how prevalent sticking to the 90 day average has become.

 

There's a push and pull from both sides. If the buyer wants the book badly enough they'll pay a premium - that's what the seller is hoping for when they price a "hot" book a bit higher than the last sold price. The "hot" nature of it means a lot of people apparently want it badly, it's just another example of counter intuitive human nature. People are afraid they'll "miss out" or that the "window will close" on a price that they can afford, so they pursue the book the most when it's at it's peak. It's a terrible idea in general, but it certainly happens, and of course sellers would be foolish not to set their prices accordingly.

 

Sometimes those buyers are correct, sometimes that window will close on them, but the vast majority of these books are hardly Hulk 1 / AF 15 / Action 1, etc. The odds state they're not even TMNT 1 or IH 181. To draw from your example, YtLM... why is it hot? It's been on again off again for nearly a decade as far as feature films go, there's no rhyme or reason to it (that I'm aware of), it just heats up and cools off. I personally wouldn't pay a premium on that title, and of course I may be wrong, but my guess is it'll cool off again. That's just an example of the forces and thought processes at play in these transactions. I think someone refusing to pay a premium on a book like that... it makes perfect sense to me.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

The bottom line is NO, your asking price is not FMV if it is not based off of completed sales. In your scenario it's more "cheaper copy than I could find on Ebay".

[Red_Hood]

Ebay's 10%? Paypal's 3%?

 

This is another big peeve of mine.

 

Ebay's 10% and Paypal's 3% are the COST OF DOING business as a retailer. If the book sells for $100 on Ebay it sold for $100, not $87 net to the seller.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if the college system shouldn't make understanding how business works a mandatory course.

 

I have costs when selling on my website. does that automatically mean the buyer is entitled to those if I sell on the boards with its Zero percent cost to the seller?

 

 

I don't know why you try to explain it to people. Most either don't have the common sense and/or business sense, it's become a lost art.

You've made the best posts in this thread but people feel they are entitled these days.

 

As a fellow dealer, I'm not completely concerned with GPA and I've heard it all when someone tries to negotiate using it in their favor.

I concentrate on trends and what the competition has available and I will set pricing according to that. I'm not going to give away keys because someone claims to be a genuine collector. I've sold books that I've actually saw relisted in this place for nearly absolutely zero margin ( and that's people trying to make a buck at this game?!? huh... great strategy.)

Being patient is also a key to success. People who live and die for that one next sale are the ones to be leery of.