GSX#1 discussion

[Vger7]

When I was a kid, GSX#1 and X#94 were the books I coveted most but couldn't afford. The whole “mutant” concept was not new but its success started with these books and I consider the X-run from #94 to #143 to be the pinnacle of comics. Rich with detail, characterization and new concepts never seen in comics prior.

 

After the housing crisis, the GSX#1 was one of the books that wasn't able to fully recover. 9.8's lingered in $4k to $5k territory for the longest time. I felt the 9.8's were actually holding back the more affordable 9.6's that was starting break $3k in 2015 before the market softened last November.

 

However, the most recent CL auction shows a 9.8 having ended at $7100, which seems promising, while the 9.6 has taken a hit at $2600. Yes, I know that there are a couple of other recorded sales of 9.8's after 2012 above $7k but being the only ones in their respective years, these seem fishy to me.

 

I know this book is not rare and the white cover allows for more higher graded copies, as opposed to the X#94. And it may be a long while before it breaks new ground but I do like this book and feel that it's been somewhat neglected.

 

Full disclosure: I do own copies of this book in various grades. I'm not trying to pump, then dump this book. Just trying to gauge sentiment to better understand why this book has been wallowing. Any thoughts? Are the X-Men passé?

 

Another book that's been struggling is GL#76, but this is probably a separate discussion unless some one can find a connection.

[s14roller]

I suppose it's hard to really say but it may be because it's still not technical the first book that started it (Xmen 1) even though it launched the new team. I persoanlly think GSXM1 is a great book and important for a few diff reasons, as is Xmen94.

[Gatsby77]

I think GSX # 1 is just boring to most investors / speculators these days.

 

It's blue chip and an easy sale (i.e., incredibly liquid) but it's been a super-key for decades.

 

And in this current movie-driven speculative environment, most folks feel it's fully priced.

 

i.e., after 6 X-Men movies, 2 Wolverine movies, etc. there's little room left for explosive growth.

 

Vs. what we saw with Daredevil # 1 after the new Netflix show, ASM 129 with the announcement of the same, or even the 2nd-3rd tier keys that _could_ see massive gains if they announce a movie or Netflix appearance (ie., Moon Knight, She-Hulk, Nova, etc. -- even a new Arnold Conan).

 

Even New Teens Titans 2 will likely see greater gains over the next three years than GSX 1 because Deathstroke's the next logical additional to the Suicide Squad universe.

 

So the smart money is on buying 3x 9.8s of that netting a bigger ROI than one 9.0 or 9.2 copy of GSX 1 for the same cash.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

There also isn't the same sustained excitement for mutant books that there was 20 or so years ago

[Vger7]

I've had similar thoughts. Like GSX#1, ASM#129 was also flat until the Punisher appeared on Netflix. Financially, it makes sense. Moon Knight holds more promise than the fully realized GSX#1... but, where are collectors? Do they already have a GSX#1? Is the collecting market that small? If the success of the current market is primarily based on speculators, this makes me nervous. The money has to come from somewhere and not everyone can make money all the time, which feels like a set up for a big fall.

 

I've also noticed less interest in books like GL#76 and DD#158, which suggests that the market is more focused on the lucrative 1st appearances, supporting the spec market theory.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I've had similar thoughts. Like GSX#1, ASM#129 was also flat until the Punisher appeared on Netflix. Financially, it makes sense. Moon Knight holds more promise than the fully realized GSX#1... but, where are collectors? Do they already have a GSX#1? Is the collecting market that small? If the success of the current market is primarily based on speculators, this makes me nervous. The money has to come from somewhere and not everyone can make money all the time, which feels like a set up for a big fall.

 

I've also noticed less interest in books like GL#76 and DD#158, which suggests that the market is more focused on the lucrative 1st appearances, supporting the spec market theory.

You're going to have some people that do both. I will occasionally buy books that I think that long-term value potential, but don't necessarily want for my collection, to later flip to get the books that I do want cheaper (in effect).

[Westy Steve]

I hate how the "movie bump" phenomenon has changed the landscape of comics, but I think I understand it. I remember books like TOS 39 and JIM 83 got huge movie bumps. The reason was because they were pretty rare books to begin with. Ok, "rare" is relative, but let's just say, "rare enough" to keep the price up. Likewise, other books receiving movie bumps have risen and fallen. Honestly, the only way to play that movie bump is to either own a book when the movie is announced, or buy it immediately before the run-up.

 

The problem is...what about us collectors? To me, the movie bumps are making it harder to collect what I want. I want a JIM 83, but it will take a long time for it to fall. There are so many titles inflated by movie bumps that it's playing hazard with my ability to collect...which is why I started collecting Xmen.

 

Here's why: Way back in the stone age, the first Spiderman movie caused early issues of Spidey to go way up. Same with Batman. But then the movie bump faded, and they did come back down. In fact, they actually slumped, which was sort of what you'd expect when a blue chip crashes...it doesn't really crash, but slumps. Anyway, the beauty of classic stories and "true" key books is that after the prices on these slumped for a while (a surprisingly long while), they did go back up.

 

So my thought process is that there are a lot of dollars chasing the latest movie bump. And all those dollars are stretching the comicbook marketplace. People are spending their money chasing movie bumps instead of buying "important" books. But this "FAD" will end. Eventually, people will realize that it's just too hard to chase it all, or maybe Hollywood will have some flops and stop making superhero films, and they'll disappear like Woody's Round-up during the space race.

 

So I think people will come back to the true keys. Quality trumps all eventually. But here's the other side of the argument. There have been several movies made about the X-men. Likewise, there has only been one movie made about the Green Lantern. Over time, on any given night, you're 7 or 8 times as likely to catch an X-men movie rerun on cable TV as you are likely to catch the Green Lantern movie for the simple fact that there are SO MANY X-men movies and only one Green Lantern movie. I think the sheer number of movies will keep X-men's star from fading. It's like some kind of "weight". That should keep X-men, Spiderman and Batman keys in the limelight long after many movie bump keys have faded.

 

Steve

[MetalPSI]

I want one, but can't afford it right now. I'm just going to wait it out and hopefully pick it up when the price drops again

[Vger7]

I admit that I've got my feet in both camps as well but I consider myself a collector first and flipper second. The movies have definitely had an impact but I also think that CGC is equally to blame (or credited) for the speculation market. In fact, I only started flipping books after I discovered, and eventually accepted slabbed books. What purpose do slabbed books serve if not to help facilitate a resale?

 

We all know that slabbed books command a premium, especially at high grades… but locally, I'm now seeing RAW books being priced the same as their certified counterpart and GPA now becoming the new Overstreet, except much easier and quicker to access. I also see tons of great books neglected for not containing a "1st appearance" and this separation of "key" versus a "run" issue is becoming greater.

 

I don't want to be one of those old guys who refuses to embrace change or new technology… and I'm all for the exuberance or the speculation party that we are all enjoying… again. However, I do think that the party should be relative to certain realities… like the actual number of collectors that are out there or the statistically flat salaries of middle class.

 

If people are busy chasing the next hot movie book… then perhaps the current value GSX#1 is about right. 9.8's are still far from its all time recorded high of about $12k. Now that the slabbed market is maturing, perhaps it is where it should always have been, which suggests other high flying key books are overvalue and are due correction.

 

Hi Meta

[oakman29]

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. GSX #1 is the Action 1 of the Bronze age, it's importance is immeasurable.

[MetalPSI]

Lets say I see a really nice raw copy, what should I be expected to pay? NM 9.0-9.8

[Vger7]

You should be able to find a decent RAW copy for about $500 but if you're looking for a high grade, I would buy it slabbed. I recently picked up a 9.0 copy for $1225. From there, the price goes up to about $6k for a 9.8... or $7k based on recent CL sale.

 

Any chance you'll be coming over for FanExpo this summer? Shall we meet up for some ice cream?

[MetalPSI]

No chance, I've got way too much on my plate this year. And to be honest, I am not a big fan of Ontario. I might come see the falls again, I'll let ya know

[maraxusofkeld]

I hate how the "movie bump" phenomenon has changed the landscape of comics, but I think I understand it. I remember books like TOS 39 and JIM 83 got huge movie bumps. The reason was because they were pretty rare books to begin with. Ok, "rare" is relative, but let's just say, "rare enough" to keep the price up. Likewise, other books receiving movie bumps have risen and fallen. Honestly, the only way to play that movie bump is to either own a book when the movie is announced, or buy it immediately before the run-up.

 

The problem is...what about us collectors? To me, the movie bumps are making it harder to collect what I want. I want a JIM 83, but it will take a long time for it to fall. There are so many titles inflated by movie bumps that it's playing hazard with my ability to collect...which is why I started collecting Xmen.

 

Here's why: Way back in the stone age, the first Spiderman movie caused early issues of Spidey to go way up. Same with Batman. But then the movie bump faded, and they did come back down. In fact, they actually slumped, which was sort of what you'd expect when a blue chip crashes...it doesn't really crash, but slumps. Anyway, the beauty of classic stories and "true" key books is that after the prices on these slumped for a while (a surprisingly long while), they did go back up.

 

So my thought process is that there are a lot of dollars chasing the latest movie bump. And all those dollars are stretching the comicbook marketplace. People are spending their money chasing movie bumps instead of buying "important" books. But this "FAD" will end. Eventually, people will realize that it's just too hard to chase it all, or maybe Hollywood will have some flops and stop making superhero films, and they'll disappear like Woody's Round-up during the space race.

 

So I think people will come back to the true keys. Quality trumps all eventually. But here's the other side of the argument. There have been several movies made about the X-men. Likewise, there has only been one movie made about the Green Lantern. Over time, on any given night, you're 7 or 8 times as likely to catch an X-men movie rerun on cable TV as you are likely to catch the Green Lantern movie for the simple fact that there are SO MANY X-men movies and only one Green Lantern movie. I think the sheer number of movies will keep X-men's star from fading. It's like some kind of "weight". That should keep X-men, Spiderman and Batman keys in the limelight long after many movie bump keys have faded.

 

Steve

 

I am a big X-men fan and I think all of the movies have been garbage, and that has been a reason why there has not been much growth in that area for some time. Look at what at what the first Avengers movie for Avengers #1.

[Westy Steve]

I see your point. I personally feel that the general public is more accepting towards superhero movies than the collecting community is. It ruffles our feathers when it isn't done exactly like we remember it. I know my wife likes the X-men movies and she never read the comics. That's just the experience at my home.

[maraxusofkeld]

I see your point. I personally feel that the general public is more accepting towards superhero movies than the collecting community is. It ruffles our feathers when it isn't done exactly like we remember it. I know my wife likes the X-men movies and she never read the comics. That's just the experience at my home.

 

I know it comes to personal tastes but the office numbers on the X-men movies were not at all amazing domestically, if it was not for overseas markets some of them may not have even made their money back or made a small profit. If someone told you 20 years ago that Iron Man and the Avengers would be in more successful movies than the X-men, you would have laughed in their face. I know I would have.

[Chillax23]

I think GSXM #1 is arguably the most important book in the bronze age (either GSXM1 or IH181) and the only thing that really keeps it "affordable" is the abundant supply. I still think it should be worth more than it is (full disclosure I have a CGC 8.5 copy that is my keeper - so I am not pumping this book for monetary gains) due to its significance. Especially considering what people are paying for lesser books like HFH1, WWBN32, etc.

[Vger7]

I'm not a fan of the X movies either but last couple have been better. I think that McAvoy and Fassbender are excellent actors and they really help sell the story for me.

 

I think where the GSX#1 is concerned, it just seems to be off peoples radar. A lot of people like the book and recognize it's importance but are not chasing it.

[KPR Comics]

Almost 365 sales reported on GPA during the last 12 months. Doesn't equal "off the radar"

[Vger7]

Almost 365 sales reported on GPA during the last 12 months. Doesn't equal "off the radar"

 

365 sales..., but relative to what? The number of collectors? Sales of other similar keys? Past sales? A number is just a number without context.

 

From what I can gather, I think the GSX#1 is either undervalued or valued just right. I don't think it's overvalued as so many "hot" book are.