What would it REALLY take for the Comic OA market to 'Correct?'

[Silver Surfer]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

[Peter G]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

[comix4fun]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

[Peter G]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

You are taking the expression too literally

 

The New York Times gets my usage. Oh joy.

 

http://grammarist.com/usage/kick-the-can-down-the-road/

 

And others, http://www.claritycommunications.co.za/blog/kicking-the-can-down-the-road/

 

 

Pretty soon the can is gonna be too big to kick !!!!

 

https://goo.gl/images/2aW24I

[comix4fun]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

You are taking the expression too literally

 

The New York Times gets my usage. Oh joy.

 

http://grammarist.com/usage/kick-the-can-down-the-road/

 

And others, http://www.claritycommunications.co.za/blog/kicking-the-can-down-the-road/

 

 

Pretty soon the can is gonna be too big to kick !!!!

 

https://goo.gl/images/2aW24I

 

 

[Peter G]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

You are taking the expression too literally

 

The New York Times gets my usage. Oh joy.

 

http://grammarist.com/usage/kick-the-can-down-the-road/

 

And others, http://www.claritycommunications.co.za/blog/kicking-the-can-down-the-road/

 

 

Pretty soon the can is gonna be too big to kick !!!!

 

https://goo.gl/images/2aW24I

 

 

 

 

Oh. I missed the punchline.

[Terry Doyle]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

How about, 'A rolling can gathers no dust'?

[Peter G]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

How about, 'A rolling can gathers no dust'?

 

Is it the same size can the whole time though ? Because I think the size of the can was where Chris got hung up

[Pete Marino]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

How about, 'A rolling can gathers no dust'?

 

Is it the same size can the whole time though ? Because I think the size of the can was where Chris got hung up

 

What if we put a snowball inside the can?

[comix4fun]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.

 

Hopefully when I'm 95 years old.

 

Remember - The longer the can gets kicked, the bigger the can

 

 

I think you're thinking of a snowball rolling downhill.

 

I am pretty sure it's the same size can all the way through.

 

 

 

How about, 'A rolling can gathers no dust'?

 

Is it the same size can the whole time though ? Because I think the size of the can was where Chris got hung up

 

What if we put a snowball inside the can?

 

 

We'll have to consult the New York Times before we can confirm.

[KirbyJack]

Don't know about you guys, but I have zero problem with big cans.

[Will_K]

If you count just the Top 20 monthly titles that are currently published, that's about 500 pieces of OA that could enter the marketplace every month. For just the Top 20 titles !!

 

I think those pieces are the "canary in a coal mine". Those pieces are probably the most accessible in terms of price, nostalgia and availability.

 

How fast can the top 500 pieces of new art be absorbed by collectors ( not dealers/agents ) ??

 

How fast will those collectors "move up" to older original art ?

 

If the base of comic book readers can expand, that's great. Then you have to turn the reader into a collector. That's a high hurdle. I work with a guy that downloads comics and rarely buys physical comic books. I consider him a true fan. He buys comics for the story not the art. I think Millennials ( and younger ) generally don't collect physical objects. They don't collect DVDs, CDs or books, it's all digital. And even if they collected Beanie Babies or Pokemon when they were younger, what do they collect now ?

 

I can't believe there's any new class of speculator or investor that can sustain or "save" the OA market. There has to be some kind of organic growth in the collector base.

 

 

[Bronty]

Don't know about you guys, but I have zero problem with big cans.

 

yes!!!

[The-Collector]

Don't know about you guys, but I have zero problem with big cans.

 

yes!!!

 

so good.

[Peter G]

If you count just the Top 20 monthly titles that are currently published, that's about 500 pieces of OA that could enter the marketplace every month. For just the Top 20 titles !!

 

I think those pieces are the "canary in a coal mine". Those pieces are probably the most accessible in terms of price, nostalgia and availability.

 

How fast can the top 500 pieces of new art be absorbed by collectors ( not dealers/agents ) ??

 

How fast will those collectors "move up" to older original art ?

 

If the base of comic book readers can expand, that's great. Then you have to turn the reader into a collector. That's a high hurdle. I work with a guy that downloads comics and rarely buys physical comic books. I consider him a true fan. He buys comics for the story not the art. I think Millennials ( and younger ) generally don't collect physical objects. They don't collect DVDs, CDs or books, it's all digital. And even if they collected Beanie Babies or Pokemon when they were younger, what do they collect now ?

 

I can't believe there's any new class of speculator or investor that can sustain or "save" the OA market. There has to be some kind of organic growth in the collector base.

 

 

I love big cans as much as the next guy but that aside . . .

 

To your comments- I honestly think that the past 60 years of comic book fandom demonstrates that the hobby is not going to disappear. All this talk about comic readership being down and Millenials not collecting physical objects is an interesting line of argumentation. Nevertheless, I think the broader trend of comic book popularity in society is now well entrenched. This phenomena is much more indicative to me than anything else that comic books are not going away. The pop culture phenomena of comic books has successfully attracted people of all age groups and I have to believe that the visibility of comics in society is going to get stronger, not weaker.

 

The bigger issue that this thread hi lights for me as regards any correction in the OA market is a general fear of the precarious state of the economic conditions, both domestically ang globally. Specifically from the policy actions of our monetary mandarins at the Federal Reserve, Washington DC, and the machinations of Central Banks worldwide. To say nothing about the aging demographics across the West and its effects on unfunded entitlement programs and never ending structural budget deficits projected into the future.

 

So yes, It seems to me that the values on certain overvalued comic art may significantly fluctuate in the event that the global economy goes upside down at some point - but at what point, who knows? This economic experiment just continues to chug along undeterred. As regards, the inability of the market to absorb new art as you suggest, that would seem unlikely to me because new art is usually priced much lower at the onset. I don't think the market is going to have a difficult time absorbing low priced new art - barring a complete economic catastrophe.

 

 

 

 

[Peter G]

As an interesting aside, this thread hi lights how most price increases are actually psychological in nature, not physical limits. Money is is just an arbitrary benchmark.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9517347&fpart=5

[Doc Joe]

The vast majority of art (and comics) are not really desirable or valuable.

 

Comics do have one benefit of having a story to them, so a really beat up copy of an issue may still sell for 1$.

 

Much of the art out there is completely and utterly undesirable. Surely that is not part of the market; the market is "quality stuff" - however you decide to define that.

 

A modern poorly drawn panel page...how is that worth anything unless one person loves that story..but that is never going up in price.

 

Isn't this question about the market about pieces that have already sold for a decent amount - call it high 4 figures and up...will those be sustainable?

 

 

[Peter G]

The vast majority of art (and comics) are not really desirable or valuable.

 

Comics do have one benefit of having a story to them, so a really beat up copy of an issue may still sell for 1$.

 

Much of the art out there is completely and utterly undesirable. Surely that is not part of the market; the market is "quality stuff" - however you decide to define that.

 

A modern poorly drawn panel page...how is that worth anything unless one person loves that story..but that is never going up in price.

 

Isn't this question about the market about pieces that have already sold for a decent amount - call it high 4 figures and up...will those be sustainable?

 

 

Agreed. How "quality" is currently defined and will continue to be defined is the real issue at hand as regards "valuation".

 

 

[delekkerste]

As an interesting aside, this thread hi lights how most price increases are actually psychological in nature, not physical limits. Money is is just an arbitrary benchmark.

 

Of course psychology plays a huge role in valuing assets that do not change over time. The Mile High copy of Action #1 is presumably no different physically now than it was in 1982 when it sold for $25K. That said, there are real monetary barriers as well. Back in 1982, it took approximately 1.3 years of nominal pre-tax income at the median household rate to buy the Mile High Action #1. Psychologically, that would have been a near-impossible hurdle for most, but, at least theoretically, many thousands of collectors could have been able to afford it if they really, really wanted it (especially those in, say, the top quartile of income earners).

 

But, today? Even at a conservative valuation of $5 million, it would take...91 YEARS of pre-tax income at the median household income rate to buy the MH Action #1. That's no longer a psychological barrier - in fact, most people on the Boards seem to be wildly bullish on Action #1's future prospects even at current levels. But, the median or even top quartile of household income earners can only dream of owning the copy; now you would have to be in the top 0.1% or maybe even top 0.01 or 0.001% to have a shot at it. Substitute your favorite piece of vintage comic art and the same argument holds for OA.

 

So, in a nutshell, psychology prevented people from going on all-in on "blue chip" comics and comic art back when thousands could theoretically afford them, but, nowadays, at/near all-time highs, they are foaming-at-the-mouth bullish, but most can no longer afford it! The barrier has become as much or more mathematical as it is psychological. Paying $25K for the MH Action #1 in 1982 was considered insane. Paying $5 million for it today would be "a great deal" in the minds of many on this Board. We've come full circle psychologically for art & collectibles just as we have in stocks, bonds and real estate over the same timeframe.

[Peter G]

As an interesting aside, this thread hi lights how most price increases are actually psychological in nature, not physical limits. Money is is just an arbitrary benchmark.

 

Of course psychology plays a huge role in valuing assets that do not change over time. The Mile High copy of Action #1 is presumably no different physically now than it was in 1982 when it sold for $25K. That said, there are real monetary barriers as well. Back in 1982, it took approximately 1.3 years of nominal pre-tax income at the median household rate to buy the Mile High Action #1. Psychologically, that would have been a near-impossible hurdle for most, but, at least theoretically, many thousands of collectors could have been able to afford it if they really, really wanted it (especially those in, say, the top quartile of income earners).

 

But, today? Even at a conservative valuation of $5 million, it would take...91 YEARS of pre-tax income at the median household income rate to buy the MH Action #1. That's no longer a psychological barrier - in fact, most people on the Boards seem to be wildly bullish on Action #1s future prospects even at current levels. But, the median or even top quartile of household income earners can only dream of owning the copy; now you would have to be in the top 0.1% or maybe even top 0.01 or 0.001% to have a shot at it. Substitute your favorite piece of vintage comic art and the same argument holds for OA.

 

So, in a nutshell, psychology prevented people from going on all-in on "blue chip" comics and comic art back when thousands could theoretically afford them, but, nowadays, at/near all-time highs, they are foaming-at-the-mouth bullish, but most can no longer afford it! The barrier has become as much or more mathematical as it is psychological. Paying $25K for the MH Action #1 in 1982 was considered insane. Paying $5 million for it today would be "a great deal" in the minds of many on this Board. We've come full circle psychologically for art & collectibles just as we have in stocks, bonds and real estate over the same timeframe.

 

You are not going to get much disagreement on anything you wrote above, especially as regards comic book valuations. That said, an argument could be made that OA is a horse of a different color in so far as it was not really very collectible until more recently, and therefore has even further to run. In my mind, the major issue is "quality", and how the community reaches a consensus on defining "quality" in the decades ahead. There are more psychological barriers to explore ahead for OA I believe.