What would it REALLY take for the Comic OA market to 'Correct?'

[DocR]

As an interesting aside, this thread hi lights how most price increases are actually psychological in nature, not physical limits. Money is is just an arbitrary benchmark.

 

Of course psychology plays a huge role in valuing assets that do not change over time. The Mile High copy of Action #1 is presumably no different physically now than it was in 1982 when it sold for $25K. That said, there are real monetary barriers as well. Back in 1982, it took approximately 1.3 years of nominal pre-tax income at the median household rate to buy the Mile High Action #1. Psychologically, that would have been a near-impossible hurdle for most, but, at least theoretically, many thousands of collectors could have been able to afford it if they really, really wanted it (especially those in, say, the top quartile of income earners).

 

But, today? Even at a conservative valuation of $5 million, it would take...91 YEARS of pre-tax income at the median household income rate to buy the MH Action #1. That's no longer a psychological barrier - in fact, most people on the Boards seem to be wildly bullish on Action #1s future prospects even at current levels. But, the median or even top quartile of household income earners can only dream of owning the copy; now you would have to be in the top 0.1% or maybe even top 0.01 or 0.001% to have a shot at it. Substitute your favorite piece of vintage comic art and the same argument holds for OA.

 

So, in a nutshell, psychology prevented people from going on all-in on "blue chip" comics and comic art back when thousands could theoretically afford them, but, nowadays, at/near all-time highs, they are foaming-at-the-mouth bullish, but most can no longer afford it! The barrier has become as much or more mathematical as it is psychological. Paying $25K for the MH Action #1 in 1982 was considered insane. Paying $5 million for it today would be "a great deal" in the minds of many on this Board. We've come full circle psychologically for art & collectibles just as we have in stocks, bonds and real estate over the same timeframe.

 

This is as much related to the increase in price (in comparison to the median household income) as it is to what has happened to the median household income vis a vis the the top .001% Your argument still stands but the ratio appears much worse because so much of the income growth has been at the millionaire/billionaire level. Monetary policy has inflated all assets to the point of insanity and benefitted the upper echelons of the income ladder while probably hurting everyone else.

[Peter G]

As an interesting aside, this thread hi lights how most price increases are actually psychological in nature, not physical limits. Money is is just an arbitrary benchmark.

 

Of course psychology plays a huge role in valuing assets that do not change over time. The Mile High copy of Action #1 is presumably no different physically now than it was in 1982 when it sold for $25K. That said, there are real monetary barriers as well. Back in 1982, it took approximately 1.3 years of nominal pre-tax income at the median household rate to buy the Mile High Action #1. Psychologically, that would have been a near-impossible hurdle for most, but, at least theoretically, many thousands of collectors could have been able to afford it if they really, really wanted it (especially those in, say, the top quartile of income earners).

 

But, today? Even at a conservative valuation of $5 million, it would take...91 YEARS of pre-tax income at the median household income rate to buy the MH Action #1. That's no longer a psychological barrier - in fact, most people on the Boards seem to be wildly bullish on Action #1s future prospects even at current levels. But, the median or even top quartile of household income earners can only dream of owning the copy; now you would have to be in the top 0.1% or maybe even top 0.01 or 0.001% to have a shot at it. Substitute your favorite piece of vintage comic art and the same argument holds for OA.

 

So, in a nutshell, psychology prevented people from going on all-in on "blue chip" comics and comic art back when thousands could theoretically afford them, but, nowadays, at/near all-time highs, they are foaming-at-the-mouth bullish, but most can no longer afford it! The barrier has become as much or more mathematical as it is psychological. Paying $25K for the MH Action #1 in 1982 was considered insane. Paying $5 million for it today would be "a great deal" in the minds of many on this Board. We've come full circle psychologically for art & collectibles just as we have in stocks, bonds and real estate over the same timeframe.

 

This is as much related to the increase in price (in comparison to the median household income) as it is to what has happened to the median household income vis a vis the the top .001% Your argument still stands but the ratio appears much worse because so much of the income growth has been at the millionaire/billionaire level. Monetary policy has inflated all assets to the point of insanity and benefitted the upper echelons of the income ladder while probably hurting everyone else.

 

+1

 

I think the direness of the economic condition for the middle class cannot be overstated. Things are really really really bad out there for the middle class and probably only going to get much worse. I am much more concerned about the general state of the economy on the lower and mid tier OA items than I am concerned about Millenials wanting to buy tangibles or comic book readership going down. The rich will always buy their toys.

 

I think it was the Dave Mandel podcast that brought attention the likely bifurcation between lower and higher end OA pieces in the years ahead. I found it humorous that he sold off all those DK pages to consolidate into a single splash page. Even though it sounded like he regretted it after the fact, I think that is the likely trend for the hobby. If somebody could sell their entire collection to fund the purchase of a single item that will appreciate at a higher rate than the aggregate of the parts, than from a financial perspective, it makes sense to do so.

 

Looking at comic books as an analogy, how many people now regret not selling off their "meaningless" runs of issue 2,3,4,5,6 etc to consolidate into just the keys. That was the winning financial move. And I believe it is the eventual trend for OA too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SquareChaos]

When speaking about the ills of the middle class you really need to define the spectrum. College educated workers are doing much, much better statistically than non-college educated middle class members.

 

My understanding is that it's really a story of layers, there's more fracture among the various middle class strata than there was 30 years ago with regard to education and profession and it falls along the line of manufacturing versus services work. The services layer is itself split among highly skilled and service industry low skilled labor.

 

The traditional middle class, as we used to think of it (manufacturing mostly), is in a death spiral and it isn't coming back for most of those people. But the rest, those will desirable skills for the new economy, are still middle class and they're hanging in there.

[Peter G]

When speaking about the ills of the middle class you really need to define the spectrum. College educated workers are doing much, much better statistically than non-college educated middle class members.

 

My understanding is that it's really a story of layers, there's more fracture among the various middle class strata than there was 30 years ago with regard to education and profession and it falls along the line of manufacturing versus services work. The services layer is itself split among highly skilled and service industry low skilled labor.

 

The traditional middle class, as we used to think of it (manufacturing mostly), is in a death spiral and it isn't coming back for most of those people. But the rest, those will desirable skills for the new economy, are still middle class and they're hanging in there.

 

 

No doubt any analysis of the income of the middle class is industry specific. In aggregate, I believe the middle class is getting poorer. What constitutes "middle class" will depend on your definition. Is an income of $40,000 middle class ? $100,000 ? $250,000 ? Also, how much in assets does that household have in reserves. The phrase "middle class" is a wide catch all that isn't very meaningful I guess. But to be "rich" as I define it would not to be even be in the same ballpark as the middle class.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[alxjhnsn]

The Wikipedia (yeah, I know) has a very interesting article on the definition of the Middle Class. It's worth a read.

[John E.]

I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and here the middle class and anyone who doesn't make Facebook/Apple/or whatever money is getting the shaft. Most regular people here have to keep 2 or 3 jobs--no joke. They have a full-time job and it's always supplemented with something on the side. The OA market here is still pretty healthy though. As well as the comic and toy market (comics less so than toys like Funkos). Listen, I'm miffed (to put it civilly) about our current economic policies, but nevertheless, despite the income level of the average person, they will always find money to spend on needless and expensive things like Funko Pops, comics, or art. There may be ebbs and flows in the OA market, but I do think there will be buyers for it in the future despite economic conditions (that aren't catastrophic, of course).

 

Not every comic reader or Marvel movie watcher is going to become an OA collector. But if there are 10 million (or 1 million) Americans watching the movies based on comic book properties, all we need is .05% of them to convert to OA hobbyist to keep the hobby afloat and alive. The hobby is just too unique and fun to die with the Millennial generation.

 

I'd like to also amend my previous post that I do see kids reading physical comics. Nowadays it's in the form of graphic novels. Just like week I saw the unlikeliest of kids--these rough-and-tumble working class kids--carrying a thick Spider-Man graphic novel. Last month at Barnes and Noble's DC Comics weekend, a 9-year old girl, won the DC comics trivia, beating out a crowd of 8 including three participating adults, myself included. She was holding three DC graphic novels while doing it. And have you ever walked through (the ever expanding) graphic novel section at Barnes on the weekends? You have to step over people to do it.

 

I'm a very cynical person, but I am optimistic about comic book readership, which can eventually lead to OA collecting.

[zhamlau]

The vast majority of art (and comics) are not really desirable or valuable.

 

 

 

 

All published comic art is desirable and valuable. I have yet to see the published page I would not pay a penny for or would want to pay a penny for. I mean hell if you get down to it and we are being completely honest ALL art and comics really have no true value to them, any of it from the Mona Lisa down to Liefeld's "Badrock". It has value and worth because we pretend it does.

 

Side tracking I know, but i think sometimes we forget the fact that all of these prices exist in abstract only. For us to say something is worthless or something is elite is all matters of shared perspective/group think and personal taste.

 

Knowing that, I tend to believe we are heading for a major price cut in art when peoples ideas about what's available and it's perceived scarcity get blown up as major collections are liquidated. I think at that point you will see market prices of art at their rawest and most naturally occurring. I would think that would happen starting 10 years from now.

[F For Fake]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high. For some sure, but my experience has been that the vast majority of people enter the hobby with a toe-in-the-water approach and move upward from there. As such, entry is actually easy as there are all kinds of price points available to feed the addiction. Nostalgia is a key part of the formula for me entering the hobby but I was able to scratch that itch through commissions and cheaper pages when I started. I didn’t feel like I needed the cover to my favorite issues on day one (and still don’t). I bought in low and worked up to nice panel pages, splashes, and covers, etc. I think that this is the general way it works for most people. And I didn’t sell anything to fund art purchases. I did curtail other spending to shift toward art but my collection has been built via cash purchases – I buy according to the fun money I have available. I am 10 years in the hobby and just recently started considering/planning to sell off some items for larger purchases. So, my collection may get a boost going forward from some sell-offs but it was built on cash (no credit) purchases. That is the standard I have to put on myself to keep the hobby a hobby and still fun. Note: I am not at the deep end of the pool and not spending vehicle/mortgage type amounts on pages so I won’t be moving the meter on the high end of the market.

 

I feel the same way you do. When I first started this, I was just getting commissions. Even though they weren't covers or high tier artists at first, I felt like I was in the game. I went from spending less than a $100 on a few pieces, then I graduated to $300, then to $500 and finally I jumped to the 4 figure section and moved away from almost all commissions and finally jumped in head first into nostalgia driven pieces from my youth. I've yet to break that 5 figure wall, but if there is a piece that I have always had my eye on then I know I'll find a way to get it. (That may cause my wife some concern though ) In fact, most of my collecting right now is being supported by selling off a lot of my commissioned pieces along with anything that doesn't hit that sweet spot from my younger years. If I entered the hobby today like I did 5 years ago, I would find that I would still go into it even if I did it the same way again. I can understand it being tricky/hard to justify the money, but there are so many different ways to get to at least something you want in this hobby that I don't see it chasing people away if they really want to join in on this. But at the end of the day, it's my money I'm spending so I'm the only one who has to justify what I'm putting it towards, so instead of that nice BMW, I'd rather have the artwork.

 

This is almost exactly my same experience. I started going to conventions about 20 years ago and started getting free sketches. Then I moved up to paid sketches. Then paid commissions. Then published art. Then I wanted covers.

 

I sold all of my books to buy art, then I sold all of my art to buy books. Right now I'm in book buying mode, but it could change at any moment. But what you say about feeling like you're in the game, that is precisely correct. As CAF will illustrate, there are a ton of folks out there dipping their toe in the water with sketches, sketch covers, etc. A lot of those folks will make a jump into published work. A lot of them won't. But we're all playing in the same game.

[suspense39]

I was just browsing various past auctions in heritage archives from early 2000's till now, really the only crazy increase is in hero comics, the rest of the market remains pretty flat with a few exceptions, as Glen mentioned, Herriman for one and Winsor mccay saw some nice increases. The high prices for things like Alex Raymond were pretty much the same a decade ago as they are now.....anyway, it's difficult to try and take in all that info objectively.....it's a ton! And not focus only on your specific interest, but I recommend it to anyone who wants to waste a few hours:)

[Hekla]

I was just browsing various past auctions in heritage archives from early 2000's till now, really the only crazy increase is in hero comics, the rest of the market remains pretty flat with a few exceptions, as Glen mentioned, Herriman for one and Winsor mccay saw some nice increases. The high prices for things like Alex Raymond were pretty much the same a decade ago as they are now.....anyway, it's difficult to try and take in all that info objectively.....it's a ton! And not focus only on your specific interest, but I recommend it to anyone who wants to waste a few hours:)

 

Not entirely true. I've noticed that some of the non-hero comic art - House of Mystery, for example - almost always sold as complete stories or multiple pages 10+ years ago and now mostly are offered as single pages.

[JadeGiant]

This seems to be dividing into two streams of discussion, at least for the parts that interest me. The health of the comic/comic art markets and the likelihood that the art will hold its value. I stand behind the notion that comics and comic art aren’t going anywhere. They will continue to be relevant and part of the American consciousness going forward. I agree that physical comic readership may dwindle a bit, but exposure through other vehicles is growing at a rapid rate. So while reading actual comics may be fractional compared to my generation, this deficit will be more than offset by the newer generation(s) getting their comic fill in different ways. I can remember well when being a comic reader wasn’t considered “cool” and many people kept it mostly to themselves. Now, it is cool to be a comic fan, wear the t-shorts, post away on FB your con adventures, movie outings, etc. The comic genre is bigger than it ever has been, despite dwindling readership (of physical comics). The part of the discussion I tend to agree with is how well will some of the higher tiered art that is popular primarily with fans who will age out of the hobby. The art will always be valuable due to its historical significance and the quality of the art, but I can see prices regressing and settling in at lower levels. As the mediums change, the source will always be revered and valued IMO … hard to say at what level and what will drive people to buy. Will be interesting to see it play out.

[Hekla]

... Now, it is cool to be a comic fan, wear the t-shirts....

 

funny side story - I was traveling on a non-work day with a co-worker recently who was wearing a Star Wars T-shirt (He's in his 30's) and I asked if he was a fan.

 

'Nah, my 10yo daughter bought it for me for Christmas and it's very comfortable, but I've always liked Captain Kirk'

[suspense39]

I was just browsing various past auctions in heritage archives from early 2000's till now, really the only crazy increase is in hero comics, the rest of the market remains pretty flat with a few exceptions, as Glen mentioned, Herriman for one and Winsor mccay saw some nice increases. The high prices for things like Alex Raymond were pretty much the same a decade ago as they are now.....anyway, it's difficult to try and take in all that info objectively.....it's a ton! And not focus only on your specific interest, but I recommend it to anyone who wants to waste a few hours:)

 

Not entirely true. I've noticed that some of the non-hero comic art - House of Mystery, for example - almost always sold as complete stories or multiple pages 10+ years ago and now mostly are offered as single pages.

 

It's a ton of stuff like I said, and very difficult to take it all in. Full stories vs. single pages are definitely hard to notice when scanning the results.

[Mr. Machismo]

Curious what digital readership is nowadays. Anyone have stats on that? Re: graphic novels – I know my Millennial friends and I typically lean towards that over single issues. I tried single issues – the endless variants and convoluted cross-overs killed it for me. That said, as an OG collector, I'm very appreciate of variants.

 

I don't see original art collecting as having a barrier to entry, what with con sketches and [very] affordable, talented artists in Brazil, etc. – I see single comics as having one. Opening up a story only to be confused two issues later by some forced continuity or event is entirely too frustrating. And thus, we wait for graphic novels.

 

 

[Mr. Machismo]

I agree that physical comic readership may dwindle a bit, but exposure through other vehicles is growing at a rapid rate.

 

I can't imagine a time where there was as much licensed merchandise as there is now. Even in my limited lifespan, it wasn't common in high school for people to be into comics – it was a geeky thing. Only in the past decade, with the surge of heroes on film, has it transformed into the norm. Like you, I just can't see comic art dwindling when so many characters have now become household names. Heck, I even have a few friends who, while not reading comics, are more familiar with current comic events than I am, as they often read up on Wikipedia re: current happenings.

[Claudio]

only to be confused two issues later by some forced continuity or event is entirely too frustrating.

 

This is why I have a very hard time reading ongoing series.

[SquareChaos]

only to be confused two issues later by some forced continuity or event is entirely too frustrating.

 

This is why I have a very hard time reading ongoing series.

 

Stay away from Marvel and DC and that problem basically vanishes. Marvel and DC are the Big Two, no question, but they're not the entirety of comicdom.

[Mr. Machismo]

I don't think you need to go that far. Waiting for graphic novels has solved the issue for me. I just take 30 seconds to look up reviews. Look at New 52 Batman, that was ongoing but wasn't bogged down by events. It had contained, brilliant story lines. Same with Daredevil, TMNT, and many others.

 

That said, I agree that people should ALSO look outside the big two. Y, Locke and Key (seriously, go read this now if you haven't), Saga, Southern Bastards, Manhatten Projects, Invincible, Deadly Class, Blacksad, etc.

[Hekla]

I was just browsing various past auctions in heritage archives from early 2000's till now, really the only crazy increase is in hero comics, the rest of the market remains pretty flat with a few exceptions, as Glen mentioned, Herriman for one and Winsor mccay saw some nice increases. The high prices for things like Alex Raymond were pretty much the same a decade ago as they are now.....anyway, it's difficult to try and take in all that info objectively.....it's a ton! And not focus only on your specific interest, but I recommend it to anyone who wants to waste a few hours:)

 

Not entirely true. I've noticed that some of the non-hero comic art - House of Mystery, for example - almost always sold as complete stories or multiple pages 10+ years ago and now mostly are offered as single pages.

 

It's a ton of stuff like I said, and very difficult to take it all in. Full stories vs. single pages are definitely hard to notice when scanning the results.

 

You did qualify your statement - I didn't intend my response to sound so terse

[suspense39]

I was just browsing various past auctions in heritage archives from early 2000's till now, really the only crazy increase is in hero comics, the rest of the market remains pretty flat with a few exceptions, as Glen mentioned, Herriman for one and Winsor mccay saw some nice increases. The high prices for things like Alex Raymond were pretty much the same a decade ago as they are now.....anyway, it's difficult to try and take in all that info objectively.....it's a ton! And not focus only on your specific interest, but I recommend it to anyone who wants to waste a few hours:)

 

Not entirely true. I've noticed that some of the non-hero comic art - House of Mystery, for example - almost always sold as complete stories or multiple pages 10+ years ago and now mostly are offered as single pages.

 

It's a ton of stuff like I said, and very difficult to take it all in. Full stories vs. single pages are definitely hard to notice when scanning the results.

 

You did qualify your statement - I didn't intend my response to sound so terse

 

I didn't take it that way, you made a valid point. ?