What would you invest in?

[dam60]

There will always be exceptions, but I would still be cautious about investing in modern books. If I can be so bold as to take my collecting habbits and apply them to comic collectors in general, for the most part I buy books and back issues of books / characters that I enjoyed as a kid or enjoy reading now. Since there are fewer and fewer comic books readers and a negligble influx of new readers, I think that a robust back issue market for most of the modern books will be pretty tough in the near term future. Especially with marvel's renumbering.

 

Here's a good example - the only Marvel modern book that I read (and I am very close to giving it up altogether) is USM. I could care less about going back to ASM v 1 and getting the books that I need (I could care less about "Ultimate Carnage" or the "Clone Saga"), all I want are the USM books. My Batman quest is another story. I would love to be able to one day get a full run of a series that has spanned 63 years. New readers of Batman or most DC books are part of a much larger continuity that by its nature stimulates an interst in back issues.

 

Just take a look at the 13 issue Avengers or FF that Marvel did in 97? I am not an expert, but these seem to sell pretty consistenly at about 25% of cover. I don't think that they will ever be worth anything as the original collectors for the most part want to get the original issues and the new collectors want the new issues.

 

Anyways, definitely exceptions, but as has been pointed out early in the thread the most important things to do are to look at for the price that you are paying for something. At a certain price almost anything becomes a bargain and almost anyting becomes a rip off.

 

DAM

[supapimp]

it must be an "asian thing", cos i got lucky too on a few books.

[Mushroom]

This will be my only diatribe for the day. Having read through this thread I almost feel like slashing my wrists or at the very least building a big bonfire and ritually burning my books in memory of a hobby that has died a painful death. I really cannot believe how negative this forum is about the future of comics and their place in the world. There will always be a market, there will always be good returns on investment and their will always be demand for high quality books. Let me draw some comparisons to other markets.

 

Cigarette cards in all countries continue to rise in value year on year. I defy that there is anybody left in the world alive who was collecting them at the turn of the century. Added to this, cigarettes aren't exactly PC and therefore there is no real plans to reintroduce these premiums going forward, yet there is a good population of collectors who see collecting these as a worthwhile pursuit.

 

Record Albums - The doomsayers foretold the death of this market at the time that CD's first came out. All of a sudden turntables were no longer produced and every man and his dog dumped their records at the tip. The market for second hand records subsequently took a nose dive, however, if you look at the market now you would see that the record album has made a return almost as great as Lazarus. Last year alone turntable production rose 150%. Nearly every major music release is now available on vinyl and people are starting to realise that beside the much warmer feel of album sound that they miss the artwork that was so special to records. Subsequently prices for albums have risen and high quality rare albums are pulling major bucks.

 

I would not recommend any collector to splurge on bronze or modern day books but I would recommend it to investors, because whle they are eating up the 1000's of HG moderns that leaves the true treasures of the GA and SA to those who love and appreciate them.

 

Comics have a long and illustrious history world wide. They can be classified as artwork, literature, period pieces, or just plain fun. Various titles or ages will plateau for periods of time but in the long run they will continue to appreciate. The super heroes never die, they are icons in our culture. Their symbols exist everywhere as a constant reminder. Flip your damn moderns but nobody is going to get their hands on my books until I am long gone (hopefully they stay in my family forever) and until I am gone I will show anybody who is willing to listen or look how wonderful these comics are.

 

Guys, take the time to go over some of the recent threads where members have shown off their favourite GA/SA books and the responses they get from the others. That is what it is all about, appreciation for an artform that is just as passionate as any art, book or anything collector.

 

Will comics die? Only if we all let it. Let's try and remember why we all do this and remember there are new collector's who peruse these boards who might get the impression that it is just not worth it.

[dam60]

Mushroom, I think you are misunderstanding me:

Will comics die? Only if we all let it. Let's try and remember why we all do this and remember there are new collector's who peruse these boards who might get the impression that it is just not worth it.

 

I am here for the long run. I have found and continue to find much enjoyment and entertainment out of this printed medium. However, I find that as an investment one has to be careful to:

1 - the overall price paid

2 - the potential price appreciation

 

For the reasons stated in my above post, I think that most comics are sketchy investments at best. But that doesn't take away from their ability to give their fans pleasure.

 

DAM

[clobberintime]

How about investing in Pogs? I heard Greggy made a killing in pog futures and I think they are primed for a big come back.

[Mushroom]

Track the growth of GA/SA books over the last 10 years and apply the overall year on year % return and I think you will find that comic books would have provided a return on equity comparible to any other form of investment, WITHOUT any major troughs. Comic investment is a market issue and you are not held to ransom by incompetent management or dotcom revolutions or property speculators or banks that give low returns but charge high prices or limited editions of memorabilia (limited to how many suckers will purchase). Key GA/SA comics have a finite population (i.e. you just can't suddenly produce anoher 100 of them in any grade), they can be held, read, admired, loved etc etc (so they are a true asset) and there is a growing (not declining) market population who want them. I will back that if I was to sell my collection right now (even taking into account the current economic situation of the US) I would make more than a healthy profit.

 

 

[dam60]

Track the growth of GA/SA books over the last 10 years and apply the overall year on year % return and I think you will find that comic books would have provided a return on equity comparible to any other form of investment, WITHOUT any major troughs

 

For the last 10 years, I totally agree with you.

 

Key GA/SA comics have a finite population (i.e. you just can't suddenly produce anoher 100 of them in any grade), they can be held, read, admired, loved etc etc (so they are a true asset) and there is a growing (not declining) market population who want them

 

1 - Finite population: true

2 - true asset: true

3 - growing market population who want them - questions

 

I would ask the following: Of the growing market population who want them how:

will the people get the money to finance them? Looking at the poor economy, devestated stock market, etc money is tighter with more people than it used to be and I think that the collectible market can't be sustained as well as it has. I think that you will do better by putting your money in an ING direct account paying a 2.3% yield with a $25 sign up bonus (pm me for details).

 

Believe me, I hope that comics do go WAY up in value! Even though I only put discretionary income into books, if you do it for long enough you start to have quite a little stake right there . . .

 

DAM

[Mushroom]

I am currently consulting to ING. They are a very solid company with a good track record for investment and conservative return. I know I am am not in my 20's and therefore must be over the hill but my life is financial services and I have been doing it since I was 18 (I am now 39). I am regarded as an operational and business model expert in my region. I cover both wealth creation and wealth protection products. I am asked constantly what I invest in and the first thing I tell them is NOT Financial Services. I then tell people I invest in what somebody else wants that I have. You would not believe the amount of money I have made from pinball machines. Index linked or property linked funds or any form of unit based product has returned a marginal performance over the last 5 years. Fund Managers make money not necessarily the moms and dads who invest. If you are more knowledgeable about something than the market then you can make dollars. Comics fall into this area. I will back my returns against any FS institution and I don't have to worry about hedging.

[clobberintime]

looks like you have only been around the forum for a while. So here is a little history. Just about any time prices on any group or genre of comics decreased for a period there were those on these boards that would declare the great crash had come. I think the word "crash" was almost banned it caused so many fights. Some people called them the voodoocrashcult or chicken littles - or hennypennies as we later learned was the correct term. Anyway, there was obviously no crash of silver or golden age prices. Prices fluctuate on books like any other investment or collectible. People were dismayed when they bought books in the middle of X-men or Spidey movie hype and tried to flip their books a few months later and lost money! Anyway, we have been over this crash stuff and the impending doom of the comic book market time and time again and there are clearly different camps of thought - and nobody ever seems to change their positions. They just use certain anecdotal sales to support whichever side they are on. I am a firm believer in the value of golden and silver age books and collectibles and it is nice to hear from an investment banker/advisor type who has a different perspective than our other board financial experts. But there are many on these boards who do indeed share your outlook - they just are not as vocal as the crashcult. Besides it leaves more good books at good prices for the rest of us to grab!

[BachelorOfComix]

I heard the midgard serpent clobbered the voodoo crash cult

 

Cheers,

 

Bachelor of Comics

[FlyingDonut]

Please note that at no time did I or Gene predict a "crash" in comic prices. What we did predict (along with the late, lamented CI) happened - a great decline in the sales price (upwards of 75% or more in some cases) in CGC graded books that meet all of the following categories:

 

1) Published post-1966

2) 9.6 or below

3) Borrowing a term from baseball cards, "common" issues (Amazing Spider-Man 115 is a "common", Amazing Spider-Man 121 is not, in an extreme example).

4) Not in any sense of the imagination a "key". (That wacky $120 MTU 53 is a "key" to some people. Same with the insane $600 FF 112).

 

If you did not believe this happened, I will be damned happy to sell you the big fat pile of CGC 9.6 graded Amazing Spider-Mans in the 160s and 170s that I have sitting on eBay right now that I'm selling for basically under Guide.

[clobberintime]

How about some FFs or avengers or other marvel stuff from that time? I thought Spidey stunk past about issue 150 so others might too and that may have something to do with the collectibility and I don't think a cgc 9. whatever can help sell that. And i did not name any names in my history post - you know to protect the innocent or whatever. So not sure how you deduced I was talking about you there Sherlock but welcome to the show. Whoever said what, there were lots of crash posts and it went on and on. People are still buying and selling comics - and presumably someone is turning a profit and enjoying the ride.

[clobberintime]

And they were all transported to the nether dimension by - dreaddormammu! But that would be telling!

[FlyingDonut]

Prices on CGC 9.6 FFs from the same time period are also dropping - I know, because I'm buying them. Please note that 9.8s do NOT fall under these 4 categories, as they are going for silly prices (I know! because I just bought a bunch).

 

Avengers 140 CGC 9.6...

 

Again, this is not idle speculation - this is fact, prices on books that match up to all four of those categories have seen SIGNIFICANT price reductions since the heights last April and May. Note that they still sell for above Guide, so if you are buying raw and slabbing you're still making money (not as much, see this Iron Man 53, for example, which would have sold for $100 last spring), so if you know what you're doing you can still flip and make a profit.

[Mushroom]

Is there a reason why your link goes to my buying and watching habits??? My comments weren't directly related to you. If you go back through the thread there are at least 3 doomsayers who did not delimit their comments about impending doom to any age or key comic criteria.

 

If this has been flogged to death in previous threads then I will pull my head in but in passing I at least know that my investments are solid and in many cases blue chip and when I get home in 3 weeks my 2 boys are going to be far happier with me showing them my latest purchases then staring at my finanical statements.

[joe_collector]

Yo Mushroom. Let me get this straight. Comics are currently priced at historically inflated levels, and you're some financial big-wig who recommends people pour large sums of investment money into it?

 

Must be a new motto: Buy Super-High - Sell....... ?

 

If so, then I doubt your qualifications and wonder what angle you're playing. Got a few thousand NM Silver Age books sitting in the basement?

[delekkerste]

Some people called them the voodoocrashcult or chicken littles - or hennypennies as we later learned was the correct term.

 

Don't forget to mention that we had our fair share of "What? Me Worry?" Pollyannas as well...

 

But as to your points, Mushroom...

 

Comics have a long and illustrious history world wide. They can be classified as artwork, literature, period pieces, or just plain fun.

 

I don't disagree with you - I'm truly passionate about the hobby. However, I'm also a realist, as the fact of the matter is that we're losing members from this hobby at a consistent rate - I try not to let fanboy enthusiasm cloud my objectivity. IMO, your examples (e.g., records) are very short-sighted. I am metaphysically certain that records will be less collectible a few generations from now (they would be dying out faster if the DJing phenomenon hadn't injected new life into the medium), as will comic books over time. All the signs are there. It's clear that the youth of today, as a whole, does not share our enthusiasm for the medium and this problem will only worsen over time. Maybe not this year or next, but when you start fast-forwarding 10, 20, 30, 40 years, you simply cannot escape the fact that the future of the hobby looks positively grim. Many comic book professionals, from creators and executives to dealers will agree with this - despite the Pollyannish protestations that it's a fringe minority view.

 

Track the growth of GA/SA books over the last 10 years and apply the overall year on year % return and I think you will find that comic books would have provided a return on equity comparible to any other form of investment, WITHOUT any major troughs.

 

This is very short-sighted - I could have made nearly the same argument about the Nasdaq in 1999 (or at least certain issues like CSCO, MSFT and DELL), and we all know what happened after that. The key is to buy before the parabolic rise, not afterwards. As I've said before - if you bought 10 years ago and are reaping the benefits, I salute you. If you are betting that lightning will strike twice, I'll take the other side of that bet all day long, especially since the parabolic rise in comic book prices was fueled by several events which are unlikely to be seen again:

 

1. The biggest bull market and greatest creation of wealth in recorded history

2. A one-time quantum leap in liquidity due to eBay & the Internet

3. The coming of age of the baby boom generation, the most moneyed class of people in recorded history, with their accompanying nostalgia for comic books & other items from their youth

4. Huge growth in the hobby from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s with the development of the direct market, creation and popularization of comic conventions, etc.

 

It might be useful to go back and read "The Official Market Cr@$h Thread" from last fall...I don't want to reopen old wounds, but you'll see in that thread that the "voodoo crash cult" point of view is based on very rigorous analysis based on long-term market history, behavioral finance, crowd psychology, macroeconomics and empirical data analysis. Of course, there's very few guarantees in life, but you'll see that we didn't pull this POV out of our collective behinds.

 

Gene

[Mushroom]

Historically inflated prices ??? The term itself is redundant! Are you saying that what people paid in the past was not real? Are we talking GA/SA books here. Define for me where this balloon is. Ignore the ten years, go back 30 years and track year by year. Where is the evidence to say that it won't continue to perform. How is this artificially inflated, where are the troughs for high grade key books. As for the Nasdaq...I agree totally. I would liken that market to modern comics. All hype, no substance.

 

What is your recommendation, invest thousands of dollars in unit linked products that on average returned minus 10% last year. There we go, thank god you are not my adviser.

 

I did not recommend anybody invest $1000's in comics. What I said was I hoped investors or speculators would buy modern HG by the thousands so that collectors would be left to access their collecting passions.

 

I have and will continue to put my money into vehicles that I think will continue to provide an acceptable market return. I believe GA/SA comics continue to fit that bill. You make your choice I make mine.

[Mushroom]

A couple of quick responses.

 

SA/GA key books do not show the volatility of spec stocks.

Track record shows that they are blue chip investments based on regular performance and return.

There are more gen x members of this forum than baby boomers. So why do you collect?

Why is ebay a one time quantum leap. Markets continue to grow. (direct distribution in its' day in the US would have had a similar impact)

Please show me the figures that show that collectors are leaving the GA/SA markets?

 

[joe_collector]

>>Are you saying that what people paid in the past was not real? Are we talking GA/SA books here. Define for me where this balloon is.

 

I define the "balloon" based on demand, and inflated consumer numbers brought in with promises of "quick investment profits". Basically, the comic market has never, ever been hotter, prices have spiked (and in many cases - yes, even for Gold and Silver - started to come down), so I'll ask this once again:

 

Why in the world do you think demand and prices will increase from the heyday of CGC? I don't know what kind of rabbit they'll need to pull out of their butt to get even more coinees and average investors involved.

 

Maybe start up Super CGC?