BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[drotto]

On 7/19/2021 at 5:07 AM, Bosco685 said:

I think you are spot-on in that the world has changed. And both society and businesses will be forced to recognize this fact. Even theaters had to change up their marketing to promote how clean they are now partnering with corporations like CLOROX. 

But with box office results, Disney is a publicly traded stock. And the investor mindset is still one of are company balance sheets conveying continuous growth. That will drive companies to always push for bigger revenue-generating options. And though streaming is the more profitable path, in no way can it currently match the massive results of the extensively worldwide distribution of theaters throughout the world. It took decades for this to be established. Streaming is not going to supplant this venue in only a few years. Which is why Disney moved the Black Widow release date 4x before it finally came out. It recognizes this fact.

It will take time for this mindset shift to settle in. Along with resetting investor expectations on movies results, and their contributions to the bottom line. Along with achieving a higher streaming penetration into the worldwide market.

Again, this is all evolving.  Yes, I think theaters in some form are going to survive. The box office is going to be a fickle thing at least for the next few months or even few years.  This is totally non scientific, base on personal speculation looking at a limited data set.  For now, movies are looking at about 50% of the box office they would have had pre-Covid. So BW (taking streaming out) is going to be $350 to $400 million,  I think it is very reasonable to say this would have been a $700 to $800 million film 3 or 4 years ago.

 

The other money item is how does streaming money now affect streaming and DVD/blu-ray sales on the back half?  Are they cannibalizing those also, but do not see it yet.

[Bosco685]

On 7/19/2021 at 9:06 AM, 1Cool said:

And what is up with the new rocket ship by our names??

I was just wondering the same thing.

DISCLAIMER: This post has been sponsored by the good people at Johnny Rockets: The Original Hamburger!

[Bosco685]

On 7/19/2021 at 9:08 AM, drotto said:

Again, this is all evolving.  Yes, I think theaters in some form are going to survive. The box office is going to be a fickle thing at least for the next few months or even few years.  This is totally non scientific, base on personal speculation looking at a limited data set.  For now, movies are looking at about 50% of the box office they would have had pre-Covid. So BW (taking streaming out) is going to be $350 to $400 million,  I think it is very reasonable to say this would have been a $700 to $800 million film 3 or 4 years ago.

 

The other money item is how does streaming money now affect streaming and DVD/blu-ray sales on the back half?  Are they cannibalizing those also, but do not see it yet.

Again, common expectations from investors and publicly traded companies feeding off the box office revenue chuck wagon will need to help in transitioning to new expectations. I don't even need a scientific study to make that determination, but more it is recognizing the market and corporations maintaining what they see as common norms.

Now with streaming services starting to pull back on disc and digital purchase offerings (Netflix started doing this with much of its content), I think you are spot-on. They will not want anything degrading their projected revenue plans.

[D84]

On 7/19/2021 at 8:10 AM, Bosco685 said:

I was just wondering the same thing.

DISCLAIMER: This post has been sponsored by the good people at Johnny Rockets: The Original Hamburger!

I was trying to eat better, but now I want a cheesesteak.

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 7/19/2021 at 9:57 AM, D84 said:

I was trying to eat better...

Eating healthy is awful and overrated.

[Rip]

I thought overall Black Widow was one of the weaker MCU movies. Not terrible but problematic at time. I really liked the intro, fight sequences were solid and Red Guardian were good. The new Black Widow was OK.

Things I didn't like was Black Window being taking way to much damage that would have killed a normal human 10 times over. The Taskmaster obvious twist reveal felt cheap and dumb, (at least they made her tough). The main villain was kind of dopy at times and quite often you just didn't feel like the characters were in any really danger when they should have been. 

 

Still I'm glad I watched it. C+ almost B-.

[drotto]

On 7/19/2021 at 10:13 AM, Rip said:

I thought overall Black Widow was one of the weaker MCU movies. Not terrible but problematic at time. I really liked the intro, fight sequences were solid and Red Guardian were good. The new Black Widow was OK.

Things I didn't like was Black Window being taking way to much damage that would have killed a normal human 10 times over. The Taskmaster obvious twist reveal felt cheap and dumb, (at least they made her tough). The main villain was kind of dopy at times and quite often you just didn't feel like the characters were in any really danger when they should have been. 

 

Still I'm glad I watched it. C+ almost B-.

As several people have pointed out. Disney has pulled the surprise it's a girl thing out 4 times now in the last 4 years.  Solo, Falcon and Winter Soldier, Loki, and now BW all did it.  

[Rip]

On 7/19/2021 at 8:18 AM, drotto said:

As several people have pointed out. Disney has pulled the surprise it's a girl thing out 4 times now in the last 4 years.  Solo, Falcon and Winter Soldier, Loki, and now BW all did it.  

Agreed. Also felt like they were getting very close to some of the same themes in Winter Solider.

[Gatsby77]

Worth reading:

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-disney-day-and-date-strategy-theatre-owners-protest-1234795420/

Among my takeaways:

• Disney+ Premiere take is only ~85%; I didn't know Disney has to share ~15% of revenues with platforms (like Apple TV, etc.)
• Theater owners are shaking in their boots at the prospect of day-and-date streaming marking a systemic (permanent) change that cannibalizes their revenue
• Not explicitly stated, but alludes to other reports that piracy opening weekend cost Black Widow more revenue than theatrical and Disney Premiere+ combined - not just via Disney+ platform sharing, but the absolute ease of piracy and torrent distribution of a film released simultaneously online, a la Black Widow and Wonder Woman 1984

Goes to my overall opinion that this is a systemic change in how the American public watches movies, vs. simply that Black Widow's under-performance was because it was mediocre.

Put another way, do you all *really* think that Captain Marvel was a) that much more popular than and b) that much better a movie than Black Widow?

If you don't believe this points to a potential systemic change, than that's the only explanation possible - that Captain Marvel (the character) is more popular and that her solo film was better.

[theCapraAegagrus]

Let's be honest: Actors and executives are overpaid. Hopefully a deflation of the film economy leads to cheaper access for their consumers. Studios also invest too much money into silly ideas. This may force them to be more selective with what they give the green light.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 7/19/2021 at 12:58 PM, Gatsby77 said:

Worth reading:

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-disney-day-and-date-strategy-theatre-owners-protest-1234795420/

Among my takeaways:

• Disney+ Premiere take is only ~85%; I didn't know Disney has to share ~15% of revenues with platforms (like Apple TV, etc.)
• Theater owners are shaking in their boots at the prospect of day-and-date streaming marking a systemic (permanent) change that cannibalizes their revenue
• Not explicitly stated, but alludes to other reports that piracy opening weekend cost Black Widow more revenue than theatrical and Disney Premiere+ combined - not just via Disney+ platform sharing, but the absolute ease of piracy and torrent distribution of a film released simultaneously online, a la Black Widow and Wonder Woman 1984

Goes to my overall opinion that this is a systemic change in how the American public watches movies, vs. simply that Black Widow's under-performance was because it was mediocre.

I guess theater owners have no conscience about the fact we're still in a pandemic and that the Coronovirus is suddenly kinda back with vengeance? News flash theater owners, Disney made the right and responsible choice giving movie fans the option of watching Black Widow premiere at home. They no doubt saved a few lives especially with this new Delta variant coronavirus that's hitting the stands now.

I don't think a systematic change is coming. As much as BW made off its Disney+ premiere, I doubt day and date streaming is the way of the future. Especially for Marvel's space and multiverse movies that are soon arriving, Disney and other studios don't want to give up the impact of the theater experience. Again, we are still in a pandemic. One day, the Delta virus will also be behind us (after it's infected every person refusing to get the vaccine and/or converts the rest). Combine that with studios going full theater premiere at the end of the year and next year should be a different story.

Edited July 19, 2021 by @therealsilvermane

[Bosco685]

On 7/19/2021 at 1:08 PM, theCapraAegagrus said:

Let's be honest: Actors and executives are overpaid. Hopefully a deflation of the film economy leads to cheaper access for their consumers. Studios also invest too much money into silly ideas. This may force them to be more selective with what they give the green light.

But wait. This movie was going to save the entire theater industry. I have that on good authority.

 

[Gatsby77]

Another marker if this is likely a more systemic change?

If No Time to Die gets moved back again.

If I'm MGM / Universal, I'd be really skeptical of Bond being able to hit even $600M worldwide in October, even thought Fast 9 will apparently do so this week.

[Bosco685]

On 7/19/2021 at 1:44 PM, Gatsby77 said:

Another marker if this is likely a more systemic change?

If No Time to Die gets moved back again.

If I'm MGM / Universal, I'd be really skeptical of Bond being able to hit even $600M worldwide in October, even thought Fast 9 will apparently do so this week.

They really should have sold those streaming rights early on after seeing months of COVID impact across the world. No way was anyone living outside of a fantasy seeing an easy path to normalcy.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 7/19/2021 at 12:58 PM, Gatsby77 said:

Put another way, do you all *really* think that Captain Marvel was a) that much more popular than and b) that much better a movie than Black Widow?

If you don't believe this points to a potential systemic change, than that's the only explanation possible - that Captain Marvel (the character) is more popular and that her solo film was better.

We are in a pandemic. People are scared and studios are doing day and date streaming for 2021 films that are normally theater exclusive. Indoor theater attendance is down and will remain down relative to pre-2020 years for at least the rest of the year. Now that the obvious facts are out the way...

I've seen a couple folks online compare Captain Marvel to Black Widow when they're kind of incomparable. Yes, both female Marvel superheroes, but one is a light-hearted space adventure and the other is a super-serious political action thriller. Black Widow's closer relative is Winter Soldier, which BW took obvious story cues from. In both movies, both Steve Rogers and Natasha Romanoff are fugitives who have assembled a super-team and are trying to take down a corrupt government super-entity while being chased by a sympathetic mind-controlled super-assassin. Winter Soldier is a better movie than Black Widow IMO, although Black Widow does some unique things that we hadn't yet been seen in a MCU movie, like exploring a family dynamic (beyond the daddy-daughter relationships of Ant-Man). But that doesn't mean that Winter Soldier automatically has better box office numbers than Black Widow. The pandemic has caused the world to go into the worst economic depression since the Great Depression. You can't compare 2020/2021 to previous years. And yes, though I've posted that Black Widow is going to save the theater industry, I never said it's going to make a billion. Though it's numbers are far below what I thought they'd be, an 80 mil opening weekend with day and date streaming in a pandemic isn't bad. I think we will have to look at the rest of the summer box office numbers leading into Shang Chi to see what the effect of a MCU theatrical movie will finally be on bringing theaters back to life. And if day and date streaming turns out to be a killer for box office receipts, then maybe Eternals will truly save the theater industry. Put it this way, when I said Black Widow is going to save the theater industry, I meant Marvel Studios is going to save the theater industry.

And yes, I think Captain Marvel is a better movie than Black Widow. Though it lacks the heavy drama of BW (by design as it was sandwiched between two movies that see half our super-heroes die/dead), Captain Marvel tells a more streamlined simple story that doesn't stray into side stories or get bogged down by overlong chase/fight scenes like in a lot of MCU films including Black Widow. Captain Marvel has great humor touches throughout the movie and are placed in the right spots. I can't recall any plot holes in Captain Marvel but Black Widow has a couple of them. I think Captain Marvel's closest MCU relative(story-wise) is Thor.

I think also, that super-hero movies with a story or hero that requires a lot of special effects maybe have more audience appeal, and is another reason we never saw a Hawkeye or Black Widow solo movie before now.

Edited July 19, 2021 by @therealsilvermane

[@therealsilvermane]

On 7/19/2021 at 1:42 PM, Bosco685 said:

But wait. This movie was going to save the entire theater industry. I have that on good authority.

 

Not to brag but I've made about 25K in ebay comic book sales from an initial 4-5K investment in 2021 alone. All Marvel titles and all because of their tie-in to the MCU. And I haven't even had to divest of any of my semi-blue chip Marvel books. Marvel is not only better entertainment, but it's better for my pocketbook.

Edited July 20, 2021 by @therealsilvermane

[Bosco685]

On 7/19/2021 at 2:39 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

Not to brag but I've made about 25K in ebay comic book sales from an initial 4-5K investment in 2021 alone. All Marvel titles and all because of their tie-in to the MCU. And I haven't even had to divest of any of my semi-blue chip Marvel books. Marvel makes not only better movies/shows, but is better for my pocketbook.

[Gatsby77]

On 7/19/2021 at 2:31 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

Put it this way, when I said Black Widow is going to save the theater industry, I meant Marvel Studios is going to save the theater industry.

I agree with much of what you posted but this statement is ludicrous.

Black Widow / Shang Chi / The Eternals / No Way Home aren't going to "save the the theater industry" any more than Tenet did.

It also ignores the entire slate of non-MCU blockbusters coming down the pike, including:

• F9 (which arguably has already surpassed Black Widow's projected final worldwide theatrical gross)
• The Suicide Squad
• Dune
• No Time to Die
• Top Gun: Maverick

If The Suicide Squad out-grosses Black Widow, I am going to laugh so hard, I'll give myself a hernia.

Hell, at this point Venom 2 might out-gross Black Widow and Shang-Chi, and it looks *horrible.*

[jsilverjanet]

On 7/18/2021 at 5:22 PM, Buzzetta said:

Groceries?  I used to go to the supermarket all the time.  Now my food shopping experience has shifted to Costco even for their butcher, Amazon, and then if I need anything else after that, the local supermarket. 

Comic book bags and boards, action figures, home essentials and anything else... February of 2020?  Comic Store, Target / Walmart, Home Goods.  Now? Amazon, Amazon / Hasbro Pulse, Amazon.  

calm down mrs Bezos

[NewWorldOrder]

On 7/19/2021 at 12:07 PM, Gatsby77 said:

If The Suicide Squad out-grosses Black Widow, I am going to laugh so hard, I'll give myself a hernia.

Hell, at this point Venom 2 might out-gross Black Widow and Shang-Chi, and it looks *horrible.*

Well apparently the early S-Squad reviews are very good, especially from people I follow who aren't shills and will call it terrible or good right away.