I was wrong. Modern variants vs. Key Issues 0

[jsilverjanet]

i was being sarcastic 

[paul747]

2 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

i was being sarcastic 

Yea I know, I was being nice

[Lazyboy]

14 hours ago, paul747 said:

Honestly man you have a picture of a CAP #1

Fixed.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'm just going to point out again that the performance of an item has no meaning if that item cannot reasonably be obtained. If a Cap #1 could be bought for $16,000 in 2003 in 6.5...how many?

Just the one.

Right?

So, ONE person could buy that copy. Nobody else could after it was sold. Maybe if you started throwing around silly money, but then it stops becoming an investment at some point.

The arguments, then, that "this would have been a better investment than that" are moot when you're talking about items that cannot be obtained, that are functionally unobtainable.

"Ahh, if only I had bought 10 Tec #27s in 2002!" Sure. But the vast, vast majority of people almost certainly wouldn't have had the opportunity to buy even ONE, even if they had the money.

Hulk #181? No problem. You can buy 1,000 copies in the next week, if you have the money.

Ten Tec #27s?

FIVE Tec #27s?

TWO....? Good luck. You could probably manage. 

 

[Gatsby77]

14 hours ago, justafan said:

Talk about a comic that appreciated in value over the last 15 years.  A CGC 6.5 Cap #1 went from $16k in 2003 to $175k in 2018.  Low to mid grade will tend to have higher appreciation because the higher end books are more scarce and so change hands less frequent, have a smaller market, but most importantly: they have most of their valuation already in the price.  The lower and mid grades appeal to a larger market, have more turnover which can consistently grow GPA prices, and since they tend to be more affordable can be considered to be undervalued as higher grades move out of reach.

J, ASM 667 is an anomaly.  It isn't the rule, it is the exception and unfortunately there just aren't a whole lot of them floating around.  If you could obtain 28 copies of 667 and release them once every 6 months you would still see appreciation in prices since the ASM completist market easily outnumbers the available quantity + 28 more.  Now if we are truly going to compare apples to apples, let's say an equal number of ASM 667's entered the market as there are hulk 181's.  There are 10,772 graded copies of IH 181 on the census (2800+ in 9.0 or better).  If you brought 10,772 copies of ASM 667 to market slowly but all in one year, you would begin to see price declines.  Why?  because the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) quotient would decrease.  Once folks realize another will be available soon, you'll see the prices begin to drop by at least 1-2k in the first few months.  FOMO (never seeing being able to buy another copy) is what's behind collectors who own them not wanting to sell them in any grade and for those that do can justify super high prices.  IH 181 isn't rare just like AF15's aren't rare.  They just have a much larger market. 

AF15 market includes - All spidey collectors  + investors + dealers

IH 181 market includes - All Hulk collectors + All Wolverine Collectors + investors + dealers

ASM 667 market includes - Spidey Completists (small fraction of Spidey collectors) + Dell'Otto Art collectors (small fraction of comic fans) + investors + dealers

You can see where the market for AF15 or IH181 seriously outweighs the market for ASM667 collectors which is why those less scarce books do so well.   

Now I don't think we'll ever see 10k ASM 667 copies hit the market so that book is safe as a potential investment long term but only so long as spidey modern completists exceed the number of available copies just like AF15 and IH 181 books will continue to be great investments so long as the spidey, hulk, and wolverine fans continue to grow and exceed the number of available copies for sale.

I do think that we are about to see what happened with the ASM 667 variant occur soon and that's what's propping up the variant market.  FOMO.  After ASM 797, 800, double-digit variants + multiple 1:1000 variants, many modern completists and variant spidey collectors are getting exhausted and we're seeing extreme saturation.  I have an entire long box full of all the 796-800 variants.  It's not just a financial issue but will soon be a space issue.  At this rate, I'll need 1 long box for every 2-3 issues.  If I keep going to ASM 1000 I'll need to rent a storage unit to house all my books.  So it's possible one of the variants in the next several issues will be under-ordered due to variant saturation and that will become the next ASM 667 but it could take a while since comic shops like Unknown, ComicXposure, ComicMint, etc are flush with cash from the ASM and Venom variants.  In effect, thosse comic shps are now the distributors.  Marvel publishes the comic, Diamond takes the orders, and Comic Shops now pay hot artitsts to provide a limited number cover and they set the price. 

So what's my point: yeah, SA/BA comics are starting to look a lot more attractive even at their GPA climbing prices over multitudes of modern variants that are become too numerous to be considered rare even for those artificially limited to 600 copies which still exceed the total graded ASM 667 copies. 

 

Dang - Jay.

That's a lot of words.

I think you severely overestimate the amount of diehard ASM completists out there.

I think your ASM 667 variant has a cool cover, but I'm willing to wait 20 more years to see how it does.

I'd rather have a Superman Bradman and it's growth has been essentially flat (or negative, depending on the grade) over the last 7 years - despite having just 38 (of ~102) copies on the census and being (literally) harder to find in absolute terms than any issue of Superman # 1-102.

[Not A Clone]

On 8/18/2018 at 3:36 PM, Gatsby77 said:

Dang - Jay.

That's a lot of words.

I think you severely overestimate the amount of diehard ASM completists out there.

I think your ASM 667 variant has a cool cover, but I'm willing to wait 20 more years to see how it does.

I'd rather have a Superman Bradman and it's growth has been essentially flat (or negative, depending on the grade) over the last 7 years - despite having just 38 (of ~102) copies on the census and being (literally) harder to find in absolute terms than any issue of Superman # 1-102.

I'd bet there are more ASM completists  out there than any other title. Partially because Action & Detective are automatically ruled out as an option for 99.9% of collectors. But if there was any way to actually tell who had the most completists, I'd put my money on ASM collectors. ASM #1, while expensive, is still obtainable. There's another board I used to follow regularly that has a dedicated ASM completist thread. Plenty of them have actually continued to track down and buy every #1 issue from vol 3 & vol 4. I think vol 4 alone had like 100 covers or something stupid like that, lol. If there is another fan base that has as many "must have everything" collectors, I'd love to know who it is.