Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[eddly]

This is a double wamy of a crash thread... discuss two crashes at once!

 

 

 

Ok... I'll add a little more fuel...

 

There seem to be some similarities to me... both markets have speculators, flippers... and a continual trend of rising. Some houses are flipped several times even before they have been built! When will we hit the point where people are no longer willing to pay the high prices?

[drice6900]

This is a double wamy of a crash thread... discuss two crashes at once!

 

 

Well, when the housing market does crash, that's when the comic market will crash. Everyone will sell to try and pay for their inflated mortgages...

[delekkerste]

I don't know...is there pressing going on in the housing market too?

[comicworm]

What do you mean when you say crash? Again guys, there are a lot of CGC graded comics that do not sell for a premium over guide values. Tomb of Dracula #1 is a great example! So when you say crash, are you referring to slabbed comics dipping below guide values? That will never happen. Again, we are not in a "bubble" like the housing market. People were flipping comic books long before CGC came along......

[Fan4Fan]

What do you mean when you say crash? Again guys, there are a lot of CGC graded comics that do not sell for a premium over guide values. Tomb of Dracula #1 is a great example! So when you say crash, are you referring to slabbed comics dipping below guide values? That will never happen. Again, we are not in a "bubble" like the housing market. People were flipping comic books long before CGC came along......

 

But before CGC came along, they were flipping (thru) comic books to read them...

[OldGuy]

Housing will tank first.

[nik]

Here in Mass, if anything, prices for homes just continue to rise and rise and rise.

 

The only way I see a crash is if a guy is delivering comics to a LCS and happens to drive through someones home.

[the blob]

since when are 9.4+++ slabbed books "the comics market"?

 

there's a lot more stuff out there than high grade books for people to throw money at

 

mid-grade GA, which can be harder to find than 9.4 SA or 9.6+ BA in some instances, is an interesting market with books rarely going over guide (which hasn't been going up much) unless uber rare scarcities.

 

if people love the hobby and are in it for the long haul (assuming talk of people buying comics as portfolio items is a bit overblown), money can get shifted around from one area to another, particularly if you view original art as part of this market and don't assume SA collectors won't buy GA. heck, for a while I only bought GA, bargain bin books and the occasional $5-$10 SA book.

[delekkerste]

Here in Mass, if anything, prices for homes just continue to rise and rise and rise.

 

The only way I see a crash is if a guy is delivering comics to a LCS and happens to drive through someones home.

 

True, but as this Boston Globe article shows, the rally is built on a foundation of sand:

 

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massach...es_soar?mode=PF

 

''When you tie all these factors together -- the bubble in the real estate market, the popularity of interest-only loans, the willingness of lenders to give loans without a significant down payment, the lowering of standards for lenders, and the deep desire of people to own something priced beyond their means -- you have a recipe for disaster." - William F. Galvin, Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts

[comicworm]

What do you mean when you say crash? Again guys, there are a lot of CGC graded comics that do not sell for a premium over guide values. Tomb of Dracula #1 is a great example! So when you say crash, are you referring to slabbed comics dipping below guide values? That will never happen. Again, we are not in a "bubble" like the housing market. People were flipping comic books long before CGC came along......

 

But before CGC came along, they were flipping (thru) comic books to read them...

 

 

 

Not true! I know a lot of people who were dealing and flipping comic books before CGC came along. CGC just help standardize the product, nothing more. Plus, now it is a lot easier to tell if a comic is being flipped just by looking at the certification number.

[comicworm]

since when are 9.4+++ slabbed books "the comics market"?

 

there's a lot more stuff out there than high grade books for people to throw money at

 

mid-grade GA, which can be harder to find than 9.4 SA or 9.6+ BA in some instances, is an interesting market with books rarely going over guide (which hasn't been going up much) unless uber rare scarcities.

 

if people love the hobby and are in it for the long haul (assuming talk of people buying comics as portfolio items is a bit overblown), money can get shifted around from one area to another, particularly if you view original art as part of this market and don't assume SA collectors won't buy GA. heck, for a while I only bought GA, bargain bin books and the occasional $5-$10 SA book.

 

 

When in this thread did anyone say that slabbed 9.4's are the whole "comic market"???

[Aman619]

they're not? : )

[Crackandpresstoan11]

Housing bubble trouble - Mass. home sales plunge 11.1 percent

 

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=91340

[FlComicFan]

Saw an interesting article a few weeks ago where it now says the average middle class family cannot afford to buy a new home. How bad will collectibles get hit once real estate does slow down big time? Stock market sucks, mutual funds for many keep idling downward

[the blob]

"Saw an interesting article a few weeks ago where it now says the average middle class family cannot afford to buy a new home."

 

Since when is everyone entitled to a "new" home? Personally, I've only lived in fairly "used" homes over the course of my life. And if you're willing to live in less popular areas, there are plenty of those. You can buy a big house in upstate NY for $50K. Sure, there are jobs up there other than being a prison guard, but that's another story.

 

As for "who said 9.4+++ is the only market"

 

that's the market where there has been rampant price appreciation, speculation and crazed flipping, so if there's a crash, there seems most likely. why would books that have practically not moved in price for 5-10 years crash?

[krazykat-migration]

Great thread. Comic books will tank much later after real estate collapses. But the damage to the comic book will be AWFUL. We won't EVER see the peaks we are at on my CGC modern books again in our lifetime.

 

$hundreds of dollars for CGC Amazing Spiderman 300....PUH-LEEEZE

[comicworm]

Great thread. Comic books will tank much later after real estate collapses. But the damage to the comic book will be AWFUL. We won't EVER see the peaks we are at on my CGC modern books again in our lifetime.

 

$hundreds of dollars for CGC Amazing Spiderman 300....PUH-LEEEZE

 

 

I do agree moderns are well over-priced right now, but keep in mind that moderns are only one segment of the whole comic collecting field. I do not believe that comics will tank, coins never did, that too, is a misconception. Certain coins did not hold their value, but you can compare that to Spider-Man comics in comic collecting. Both Spider-Man and X-Men comics are horribly overvalued right now. Even the new Overstreet Guide dropped the values of both Giant X-Men #1 and X-Men #94 by 10%!

[tth2]

Here in Mass, if anything, prices for homes just continue to rise and rise and rise.

 

The only way I see a crash is if a guy is delivering comics to a LCS and happens to drive through someones home.

 

True, but as this Boston Globe article shows, the rally is built on a foundation of sand:

 

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massach...es_soar?mode=PF

 

''When you tie all these factors together -- the bubble in the real estate market, the popularity of interest-only loans, the willingness of lenders to give loans without a significant down payment, the lowering of standards for lenders, and the deep desire of people to own something priced beyond their means -- you have a recipe for disaster." - William F. Galvin, Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts

Hey Gene, as long as the mainstream pubs and WSJ keep worrying about the real estate bubble and publishing articles about the speculative nature of the market, it won't crash. It's only after most of the skeptics throw in the towel after another burst of price appreciation, and the mainstream pubs jump on the train and stop publishing negative articles, that it will all come crashing down.

[jduran1]

I love these crash threads.

 

I bought a condo in Phoenix for 600k and sold it for 3 million. I bought a hulk 181 for 120 bucks in 1990 and sold if for a new car. Both markets are so hot that if you blink you are too late. Instead of wasting your time on this forum you should be buying comics and real estate in Lvegas or Phoenix.

 

There are always clues to a comic crash coming. Several clues to watch for would be:

 

In comics if Chuck sells his business and buys a chain of tire stores with Steve B then you need to worry.

 

Pedigreecomics and Comiclink agree to a merger of equals.

 

Highgradecomics starts selling ungraded NM comics.

 

The CGC forum has run out of topics and starts talking about golf.

 

To many to mention but I am sure some of you have other signs you can share with us.

[tth2]

There are always clues to a comic crash coming. Several clues to watch for would be:

 

In comics if Chuck sells his business and buys a chain of tire stores with Steve B then you need to worry.

 

Pedigreecomics and Comiclink agree to a merger of equals.

 

Highgradecomics starts selling ungraded NM comics.

 

The CGC forum has run out of topics and starts talking about golf.