Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[paperheart]

Really interesting to re-read this thread and see how dramatically the view of the real estate market changed between 2005 and 2007. Wonder if we'll be looking back in 2010 and saying the same things about the comic market.

 

Its 2015

 

This thread needs an update

 

yep, this thread is going places

[namisgr]

My son just got a job. The economy is doing fine.

[waahehe94]

I always thought that land was in limited supply and they don't seem to be making it anymore on planet earth to the best of my knowledge. Kind of hard to imagine it ever going down in value since it seems to be in short supply. I'm sure if a bank takes control of someones property and sells it they aren't going to take a loss on it despite what people are lead to believe in the news.

 

To the best of my knowledge the value of my property has gone up in the last 15 years. Atleast according to what I pay in property taxes anyways.

 

The difference between comic books and having a place to live is that one is needed to survive while the other one is just a hobby. Truth be told I don't see either market in trouble, especially after being to the last comic con

[VintageComics]

Land has it's ups and downs over the short term, but long term there are very few things that will have a bull run for all time like land will. The only other I can think of are air, food and water.

 

 

 

 

[kimik]

Land has it's ups and downs over the short term, but long term there are very few things that will have a bull run for all time like land will. The only other I can think of are air, food and water.

 

 

 

 

It depends on the location. There are plenty of markets that have dropped in value over time, just as well as many that have risen. In real estate location trumps all.......

 

Just like comics - keys continue to rise while commons stagnate or drop in value.

[VintageComics]

Land has it's ups and downs over the short term, but long term there are very few things that will have a bull run for all time like land will. The only other I can think of are air, food and water.

 

 

 

 

It depends on the location. There are plenty of markets that have dropped in value over time, just as well as many that have risen. In real estate location trumps all.......

 

Just like comics - keys continue to rise while commons stagnate or drop in value.

 

In the long run it will all increase in value.

[bluechip]

I could not have imagined 5 years ago, the lengths that the central planners would have gone to prop up the U.S. housing market in particular and the overall economy in general.

 

I know of several families that have not paid their mortgage in at least 5 years and the bank is still working with them rather than kick these families out of their homes. Loan modifications and backlog of shadow inventory has certainly helped to stabilize the real estate market - for now. Add to that, there has been massive venture capital that has entered the market and what wit "Black Rock" buying up swaths of properties, the market surely has benefited from all this cheap credit flowing from central banks. I could never have predicted all these foreign cash buyers, especially the Chinese, to have swooped in and bought all these trophy properties at new highs. A lot of the 2007-2009 downturn has now been related back to prior heights or at least close to the prior highs.

 

The comic book market never really suffered much of any downturn from 2008-2015 and in fact seems relentlessly moving upwards again right now. I guess that is what happens when you have a 4.5 Trillion dollar balance sheet of the Fed Reserve and Japan and Europe and now China are printing money with abandon.

 

So the question remains, where will real estate and comic books be in 2020 ?

 

I will guess that real estate will be much lower if the government ever gets out of the way. If the government continues to manipulate the housing market and not allow rates to rise then just maybe - housing has stabilized. But god forbid rates ever rise in this country, the real estate market is toasted in my opinion ! And centrally planning never seems to work out very well, so I expect a crash in real estate . . . one day. Just not sure when.

 

Comic books I think will do much better regardless of rates rising or staying the same, unless there is a SHTF moment in which case the entire global economy will probably go down the drain. That said, I would rather own a Near Mint Action # 1 then a penthouse in NYC under that scenario.

 

The bottom line is that I think it is impossible to predict the future in a policy environment where there is constant intervention by all these governments and central banks. So any speculation on my part, is just that - SPECULATION.

 

 

What will; happen if the government "gets out the way" of supporting banks and money managers with near-zero interest and, instead, lends money to homeowners and college students at the same rate?

 

 

I really don't pretend that I have any real idea. This economy is so badly distorted right now that its truly hard to say what would happen if the government got out of the way. Presumably, prices would go down as markets reset lower.

 

Government shouldn't be picking winners and losers at any interest rate. Certainly handing out more free money to students and potential mortgage borrowers will just lead to even more mal-investment as a consequence from this new fake demand stolen from the future.

 

 

Government already picks winners who are already winners and makes them bigger winners, yet when we hear that the government shouldn't pick winners and losers we seldom seem to hear that the government should stop the further fattening of the already fat; we just seem ti hear that the government should never extend the same help to the little guy. Handing out low interest home loans may be dubbed a bad idea but I find it interesting when people say that's a bad idea without acknowledging that the status quo is a much worse idea -- giving out even more money to a select few who can then be a completely unnecessary middle man who makes a killing lending the free money to the losers at instant multiples that rival the resale of a Ditko Spidey purchased 30 years ago.

 

 

 

[kimik]

Land has it's ups and downs over the short term, but long term there are very few things that will have a bull run for all time like land will. The only other I can think of are air, food and water.

 

 

 

 

It depends on the location. There are plenty of markets that have dropped in value over time, just as well as many that have risen. In real estate location trumps all.......

 

Just like comics - keys continue to rise while commons stagnate or drop in value.

 

In the long run it will all increase in value.

 

Sure, over decades or hundreds of years it will, but how are the bad areas of Detroit doing, for example? Other parts of the rust belt, or the hundreds of rural farming based towns across North America that no longer exist? Again, location is the key.

 

In addition, how many areas are there where real estate does not keep up with the rate of inflation? Would that be a good investment?

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

Land has it's ups and downs over the short term, but long term there are very few things that will have a bull run for all time like land will. The only other I can think of are air, food and water.

 

 

 

 

It depends on the location. There are plenty of markets that have dropped in value over time, just as well as many that have risen. In real estate location trumps all.......

 

Just like comics - keys continue to rise while commons stagnate or drop in value.

 

In the long run it will all increase in value.

 

Things fall permanently out of favor and suffer permanent impairments of value all the time. Over the long run, everything does not always go up, up and away.

[lou_fine]

 

I could not have imagined 5 years ago, the lengths that the central planners would have gone to prop up the U.S. housing market in particular

 

The comic book market never really suffered much of any downturn from 2008-2015 and in fact seems relentlessly moving upwards again right now.

 

So the question remains, where will real estate and comic books be in 2020 ?

 

 

 

It depends on the location. There are plenty of markets that have dropped in value over time, just as well as many that have risen. In real estate location trumps all.......

 

Just like comics - keys continue to rise while commons stagnate or drop in value.

 

Like the previous poster had already stated, it all really depends on location. There are some markets where real estate has clearly outperformed comics, and yet at the same time, there are some markets where real estate has dropped like a rock compared to the comics market.

 

It should be noted that markets often move on their own, irrespective of whether the government is trying to prop them up or cool them down. Although you say the central planners are trying to prop up the US housing market, it is clear where I live that the central government for years has been trying to cool the housing market down in the hopes of a soft landing in order to avoid a situation similar to the housing collapse in the US back in 2006 to 2010.

 

Needless to say, to no avail as housing prices continue to climb up, up, and away even in the face of artificially higher mortgage rates and more restrictive mortgage lending regulations. Except for a short and welcome breather just after 2008 during the financial crisis. In the case of where I live, comics have clearly not kept up as only keys and certain other books have gone up in value, whereas in real estate, even older teardown houses on the poorer east side of the city are now hitting into the 7 figures if you are lucky enough to latch onto one of them in today's scorching hot market.

 

So, there is no one answer to your question about where real estate and comics will be in 2020. Real estate in 2020 will depend on where your particular location is, while comic books will depend on the type of books you have in your collection.

[That Ron Dude]

Quickly, there are housing markets, not a housing market. Condominiums aren't the same as houses. Neighbourhoods vary. Trends vary from city to city. In Toronto knowledgeable people have been preaching doom and gloom for years but prices in most or all categories continue to rise. One day the people who said the prices would drop will become right. People here are spending a huge amount of their income on their dwellings. A slight rise in interest rates would create a snowball effect that would put many houses on the market simultaneously. The competition would create falling prices. There.

 

As for comics, again, there are markets not a market. Action #1, FF #1 and FF #216 all react differently. No one really needs comics. The men who read and collected them as kids are aging and dying. These men are not being replaced by collectors but by plastic accumulators and cosplayers. All we need is one issue of Overstreet to note the prices as dropping and we go into a panic selling. I am sure the people at Overstreet know that as well. I have to wonder if this affects how they go about their work.

 

 

[Diaolos]

I say keep buying real estate without the intention of flipping. In the long haul you will always be a winner. The stock market has always gone up and down and will always continue to do that but over a 10 year period the stock market has never given a negative return. As well when I buy real estate I buy a 3 door unit or above. Most of the time the rents cover all expenses and leave you a few dollars. If there is a downturn. People will always need shelter. As for comics I do think a few things are ridiculous eg Hulk 181. People are just hoarding them. Very few sellers are driving the market up for those that want the book and for those that are jumping in because they just see and think a continuous appreciation will be there for a quick flip. This is one comic that will fall hard in my opinion when the hoarders come out of the woodshead looking to sell.

 

In the long run I think collecting keys are the way to go and they will always appreciate overtime.

 

My 2

[jaeldubyoo]

For most, they will always need a home. You can do without comics. I don't think I've ever heard of a homeless person saying he needed comics.

[VintageComics]

Land has it's ups and downs over the short term, but long term there are very few things that will have a bull run for all time like land will. The only other I can think of are air, food and water.

 

 

 

 

It depends on the location. There are plenty of markets that have dropped in value over time, just as well as many that have risen. In real estate location trumps all.......

 

Just like comics - keys continue to rise while commons stagnate or drop in value.

 

In the long run it will all increase in value.

 

Things fall permanently out of favor and suffer permanent impairments of value all the time. Over the long run, everything does not always go up, up and away.

 

Unless we face an extinction event, land will always rise in value over the long run. There is no more of it.

 

And while space travel is a possible option in the future, I don't think that living in space is going to happen in the realistic, foreseeable future.

 

So that means that while the world population grows, and overall wealth increases the land area stays the same. Simple supply and demand.

 

And while a plot of land in the desert wasn't an option at one time, we've seen what countries like Israel have been able to do with their irrigation systems (literally make a flourishing garden out of the desert) and so I believe that any detraction a piece of land has now will be eventually taken care of with technology, whatever the restrictions are.

 

Technology moves faster than people do.

 

So yeah, San Fransisco is over all appealing right now, but one day when there is no room left there some little farm in the middle of butt freak no-where will be a bargain and start to climb as well. Even if it's on a radioactive dump site.

 

 

 

 

[lou_fine]

All we need is one issue of Overstreet to note the prices as dropping and we go into a panic selling. I am sure the people at Overstreet know that as well. I have to wonder if this affects how they go about their work.

 

 

Most definitely as Overstreet has always taken a slow and conservative approach to valuation just to avoid such a scenario from taking place. They most definitely do not follow the Wizard hype approach which almost seem determined to be ahead of the market when it came to valuation of the latest hot books. Didn't matter to them that they all generally crashed and burned right afterwards.

 

Although Overstreet's approach has certainly left the impression that it is out of touch with the market sometimes when it came to the current hot books, he has certainly managed to nurtured the market so that it looks like a strong and healthy market with continuing growth over the years. Although the trend line certainly looks good over the long run, if you look between the lines, there are probably quite a few ups and downs which just gets buried in the overall chart.

[lou_fine]

I say keep buying real estate without the intention of flipping.

 

Don't we all wish that we live in a fantasy world such as this. Unfortunately, as history has clearly shown us time and time again, you will always have speculators and flippers out their plying their trade if there is a dollar to be made whether it be the stock market, the housing market, the comic book market, or what have you.

 

Unfortunately for me, where I live the housing market is so scorching hot right now that it is part of everyday conversation and what seems to be at least one news story on it every single day. It has even gotten to the absurd point that companies are now running ads to teach their clients on how to profit from flipping houses. This is normally the indication of a market top, but it has been going on for so long that it just doesn't seem like it's going to happen anytime soon.

 

The problem with speculators and flippers is that they get in the way of the real people that wants to purchase the item for their intended use. For example, my daughter and her fiance has now put in over 10 offers on houses this past month, without getting even so much as a sniff. Definitely a crazy market out there when all 10 of their offers were for sizeable amounts over the asking price, but clearly not sizeable enough.

 

Certainly a good time to be a seller when houses are able to generate a slew of offers after just one showing. I guess it's also a good time to be an astute flipper if you are willing to take the risk as some of these homes are even resold for a profit before the initial purchase deal has even closed. I just shake my head when bank loans managers tells me that some of their customers have even managed to pay out their mortgage early after making a multi-six figure profit on their house just after a few months.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Quickly, there are housing markets, not a housing market. Condominiums aren't the same as houses. Neighbourhoods vary. Trends vary from city to city. In Toronto knowledgeable people have been preaching doom and gloom for years but prices in most or all categories continue to rise. One day the people who said the prices would drop will become right. People here are spending a huge amount of their income on their dwellings. A slight rise in interest rates would create a snowball effect that would put many houses on the market simultaneously. The competition would create falling prices. There.

 

As for comics, again, there are markets not a market. Action #1, FF #1 and FF #216 all react differently. No one really needs comics. The men who read and collected them as kids are aging and dying. These men are not being replaced by collectors but by plastic accumulators and cosplayers. All we need is one issue of Overstreet to note the prices as dropping and we go into a panic selling. I am sure the people at Overstreet know that as well. I have to wonder if this affects how they go about their work.

 

Good post.

Plus isn`t Robert Overstreet in his mid-70s?

Who knows how long he will keep doing price guides, as he is at the age most people retire at.

 

[delekkerste]

Unless we face an extinction event, land will always rise in value over the long run. There is no more of it.

 

Are you talking about land as a whole? Because, if you are, that's an absolutely meaningless statement, since no one can own "land" in general; they can only own specific parcels of land and property. Which can and do decline over the long run, sometimes permanently. They may not be making any more land, but, land values can go down over the long run through several different mechanisms:

 

1. Prices get unrealistically high and then crash (e.g., the land beneath the emperor's palace in Japan being worth more than all the land in the state of California in 1989)

 

2. The land suffers a permanent impairment of value (e.g., land with mineral rights that become depleted, once-agriculturally productive land that becomes fallow, building a nuclear waste facility or prison or something nearby reduces the area's attractiveness, or once-booming mining towns become ghost towns after the boom ends, etc.)

 

3. Changing population/demographic/financial trends cause a long-term blight on values (e.g., urban decay in many once-thriving areas like Detroit)

 

4. A country's relative standard of living and economic productivity becomes impaired over the long run, such as through bad politics (e.g., land gets seized/nationalized by a new government in a country rendering its private market value worthless)

 

So, no, land (as well as other assets in fixed supply, such as vintage collectibles) most emphatically do not always go up in value over the long run.

[VintageComics]

Are you talking about land as a whole?

 

Of course. I thought it was clear from my statement 'over all time'.

 

Obviously over the short term location (just like picking the right key in comics) is everything.

 

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

Are you talking about land as a whole?

 

Of course. I thought it was clear from my statement 'over all time'.

 

Obviously over the short term location (just like picking the right key in comics) is everything.

 

It wasn't clear, because, like I said, that statement in and of itself is pretty meaningless. All it's basically saying is that global populations and global wealth have risen over time and will likely continue to do so, but says nothing about the relative attractiveness about any particular land or property that an individual might choose to invest in.

 

Secondly, it also implies that there is some specific exceptionalism for land, since they aren't making any more of it (with possibly inferences to other assets in permanently fixed supply such as vintage comics). I'm pretty sure that there isn't - if global populations and global wealth keep rising over time, global stock market capitalizations, for example, will almost surely continue to rise over the very long term as well (which is again a fairly pointless statement vis-a-vis what one should do with their money). And, if they don't, I doubt that land will somehow be exempt from this kind of epic trend reversal - it probably means that values simply got too high relative to whatever the negative future underlying fundamentals are.

 

So, basically, I'm not even sure why you're trying to make this point, because it's a meaningless, throwaway statement no matter how you look at it.