Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[Aman619]

My thinking has always been to work to buy books I want and like for my collection that I think will be worth more in the future as well as be an imprssive part of my overall collection. So I have always been looking for appreciation in the big ticket books I bought in the 90s, and in the past few CGC years. Therefore, since value appreciation for my 10s of 1000s spent/invested in comics was MY stock market if you will , In the late 90s definitely began to see the futility of buying more 10K+ comics that would inch up in value when Intel etc were doubling.

 

I know Im repeating myself, but I believe I was not alone in recognizing that at the time 10K+ "invested" in comics was like leaving it in a savings acct in lieu of a money market or a high flying stock, and that realization put a damper on big ticket sales across the board... Funny how, long term, it would have ben better to buy more comics during that lull!! especially HG Marvels keys what with CGC hovering just around the corner!!

[Kevin76]

After 5 years of CGC's service I'm still waiting for the market to crash. Still haven't seen it yet. I do however see everything is being bought up. CGC Comics A.K.A Sale Pending

[comicworm]

After 5 years of CGC's service I'm still waiting for the market to crash. Still haven't seen it yet. I do however see everything is being bought up. CGC Comics A.K.A Sale Pending

 

And in another five years we will still be pondering this same exact question. None of the other certified collectibles markets have crashed, why should comics? Graded coins never crashed, most of the ones that were originally bought a few years back (when some thought there was a crash) have increased over the years.

 

In the financial world, there are those who think the stock market is headed for a crash really soon. Some have been saying this for the last ten years or more, I should know because I work in the finace and insurance fields. Thank God these nay sayers are few and far between, I would not be able to tolerate them all day long, yelling that the sky is falling, when in fact, the only thing falling is the intelligence level of the room every time they enter it.......

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

It seems most probable that the HG modern slab market would be the 1st victim in the event of a crash. With the sheer quantity of 9.6 & 9.8 copies, I figure it's only a matter of time before collectors come to the realization that a significant percentage of these 9.6s could come back 9.8 upon resubmission.

 

They'll realize that paying multiples of the 9.6 price for a 9.8 may be unwise, and begin to question the 'value' of a .2 increment.

 

Modern slabs no longer meet reserve, and have to be re-listed at lower and lower opening bids.

 

There will come a time when sellers must decide to either take a loss, or hold on to them in hopes that history repeats itself...and the market rebounds in about another 10 years.

 

The big question is whether or not this decline will spread into the earlier ages. I used to think that to be inevitable, but there is also another possibility:

 

What if all the modern collectors/speculators decide not to leave the market.....but rather put all their money into Bronze/SA/GA where the CGC census numbers are very small in comparison?

 

 

The other possibility is that this post is complete gibberish, but I can't be bothered to review it before pressing SUBMIT

[Sharkey]

It seems most probable that the HG modern slab market would be the 1st victim in the event of a crash. With the sheer quantity of 9.6 & 9.8 copies, I figure it's only a matter of time before collectors come to the realization that a significant percentage of these 9.6s could come back 9.8 upon resubmission.

 

They'll realize that paying multiples of the 9.6 price for a 9.8 may be unwise, and begin to question the 'value' of a .2 increment.

 

Modern slabs no longer meet reserve, and have to be re-listed at lower and lower opening bids.

 

There will come a time when sellers must decide to either take a loss, or hold on to them in hopes that history repeats itself...and the market rebounds in about another 10 years.

 

The big question is whether or not this decline will spread into the earlier ages. I used to think that to be inevitable, but there is also another possibility:

 

What if all the modern collectors/speculators decide not to leave the market.....but rather put all their money into Bronze/SA/GA where the CGC census numbers are very small in comparison?

The other possibility is that this post is complete gibberish, but I can't be bothered to review it before pressing SUBMIT

 

 

Beyonder, this is not gibberish at all. You've hit the cliched nail on the head.

 

I keep waiting to see the pushback from high-grade modern slabs but have yet to see it. Seeing people pay multiples of guide for a brand new comic slabbed 9.8 makes zero sense to me. Yet, they keep on buying.

 

Logic would dictate that what you say will, eventually, happen. Til then though we get to sit around pontificating about how silly it seems.

 

I admit it's caused me to send in a lot of modern books to CGC in order to sell them, something I thought I would not gamble on. Yet, I recently sold a 9.8 Radioactive Man 1 for crazy money and still see high grade copies of common books in high grades sell for $100 and up.

 

I am baffled. But as long as the buyers are happy, go figure?

 

I am going to stick to art.

 

PS: Beyonder, you may be interested in this:

 

Uncanny X-Men 115 double page splash

 

[drbanner]

Do new (like within the last 3 months) slabbed commons (non-key) 9.6/9.8/9.9's still sell for crazy money? I've never bought nor sold stuff like that, but back in the day when new books quickly appreciated it was always the 2-3-4 month old books that went from $2 to $20, and a year later were back to $2. Just wondering if that same pattern is holding true for modern slabs.

 

As far as silver and bronze, every month continues to bring records prices for selected slabbed books with no real depreciation in quality items to be seen. Beyonder has posted a couple of these lately, and I was hoping to pick up that 9.4 Hot Wheels 1 that ended earlier this week but it went for a record price in that grade!

[the blob]

the slabbed baseball card market did crash, didn't it? granted, the baseball card market had already crashed big time and the slabs had just breathed some life into it

[Kevin76]

The baseball card market got flooded,companies just pumping out so much stuff it was mind boggling to consumers and i think collectors just said the hell with it since no one could keep up with it...Probably the only ones that made out were the ones who got good prices on old cards that were in NM/MT slabbed.

As far as comics go,it's much easier to seperate the market,Golden Age market,Silver Age,Moderns ect.. Not all Batman books are created equal obviously,Batman doesn't break his back and is on the disabled list for 6 weeks unlike baseball.Of course how can a card rise in value if he's injured and not playing? Out of sight,out of mind.

[comicartfan]

Steve,

what do you think Woo is looking to get for that splash ? -

 

 

p.s. Kevin76 doesn't know what he's talking about !

[Kevin76]

neither do you cgcfan and don't worry about what Bill Whoo-Hooo! is selling a splash for,i'm sure it's alot.

[krazykat-migration]

the slabbed baseball card market did crash, didn't it? granted, the baseball card market had already crashed big time and the slabs had just breathed some life into it

 

EXACTLY, THE COMIC BOOK CGC WAS ALREADY A CRASHED MARKET IN 98-99.....CGC JUST TEMPORARILY BREATHED NEW LIFE INTO IT

[krazykat-migration]

PRE CGC THAT IS

[krazykat-migration]

neither do you cgcfan and don't worry about what Bill Whoo-Hooo! is selling a splash for,i'm sure it's alot.

 

WHAT SPLASH THAT WOO HAS ARE YOU FELLAS TALKING ABOUT...IF I MAY BE SO BOLD AS TO ASK?

[delekkerste]

neither do you cgcfan and don't worry about what Bill Whoo-Hooo! is selling a splash for,i'm sure it's alot.

 

WHAT SPLASH THAT WOO HAS ARE YOU FELLAS TALKING ABOUT...IF I MAY BE SO BOLD AS TO ASK?

 

The one that Rhino_Comics linked to:

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/Images/Category_915/subcat_11978/IMG_0050a.jpg

 

Given that he considers this to be "by far the best DPS Byrne has ever done", with the implication that it is better than the one from X-Men #137 that Jim Lee bought for $55.2K (via Albert Moy) at the Heritage auction a couple of years ago, I wonder if he's looking for something in that general vicinity. Yes, the market has risen since then, and this piece may very well be technically better, but the X-Men #137 DPS had just about every X-Man in it and was from a more memorable storyline, which makes it more valuable IMO. Remember, the #113 *cover* only went for the minimum bid ($34.5K incl. the BP) at the Sig. Sale in NY recently, so I can't see this one going for double that, but somewhere in the $40K-$60K range is where I'm guessing it's being offered.

 

I don't collect Byrne art, but why don't you make an offer to Mr. Woo and see what he says?

[krazykat-migration]

neither do you cgcfan and don't worry about what Bill Whoo-Hooo! is selling a splash for,i'm sure it's alot.

 

WHAT SPLASH THAT WOO HAS ARE YOU FELLAS TALKING ABOUT...IF I MAY BE SO BOLD AS TO ASK?

 

The one that Rhino_Comics linked to:

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/Images/Category_915/subcat_11978/IMG_0050a.jpg

 

Given that he considers this to be "by far the best DPS Byrne has ever done", with the implication that it is better than the one from X-Men #137 that Jim Lee bought for $55.2K (via Albert Moy) at the Heritage auction a couple of years ago, I wonder if he's looking for something in that general vicinity. Yes, the market has risen since then, and this piece may very well be technically better, but the X-Men #137 DPS had just about every X-Man in it and was from a more memorable storyline, which makes it more valuable IMO. Remember, the #113 *cover* only went for the minimum bid ($34.5K incl. the BP) at the Sig. Sale in NY recently, so I can't see this one going for double that, but somewhere in the $40K-$60K range is where I'm guessing it's being offered.

 

I don't collect Byrne art, but why don't you make an offer to Mr. Woo and see what he says?

 

Thanks deli, I appreciate the information. KK

[comicworm]

the slabbed baseball card market did crash, didn't it? granted, the baseball card market had already crashed big time and the slabs had just breathed some life into it

 

Again, the slabbed baseball card market is only one sector of the graded sports card market! This is like saying that the modern CGC market crashing (which has nothing to do with what the Silver Age and Bronze Age slabbed markets may be doing). Other graded sports cards were never subjected to a crash.....

[Sharkey]

Thanks Gene, you beat me to it.

 

That 115 DPS is gorgeous, but as you say, not quite as amazing as the 137 splash. Though personally I do like that image of Wolvie going at Sauron. Your estimate is probably right on the money. Tis a thing of beauty.

[eddly]

Thought I'd bump this old thread for fun, interesting how quick things can change. Who would have thought the Canadian dollar would be threatening parity with the US dollar as well. Incredible.

[joeypost]

Here in Mass, if anything, prices for homes just continue to rise and rise and rise.

 

The only way I see a crash is if a guy is delivering comics to a LCS and happens to drive through someones home.

 

How much new building is going on in your area? In Central Florida 14 years ago you could buy a 2,000 square foot home with a pool from $85,000-105,000. Now that same house is between $300,000-$350,000 and dropping like a stone due to new construction.

 

When the real estate boom wa sin full force down here a new development was being cleared/built every week it seemed. Now some of the developers are stuck with hundreds of homes that are not moving. I have seen prices drop in some area's almost $100,000 on a new home. That is killing those looking to sell an existing home. After all who would buy old when a brand new one is available.

 

Houses are still selling but at a slower rate than they were 3-4 years ago.

[showcase4]

the housing market will not crash.....there may be price corrections, but no crash.....people NEED a place to live. No one NEEDS comic books.