The Ongoing eBay Direct to Newsstand For Sale Ratio Project. 3 3

[bababooey]

Just a comment on an earlier point re: Shooter's 6%  of the print run was direct the Black Cat ASM isnt as far off if you work through it. (using rounded numbers for simplicity)

If ASM had a print run of 100K and a NS sell through of 50%....the original 6K print run are only being measured against half of 94K and as a percentage 6/47 is 12.7%.

 

Edited September 11, 2018 by bababooey

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Another data point, different method:

CGC recognized the first Spawn #9 Newsstand on the March 4, 2013 census.

Throwing out all CGC graded copies of Spawn #9 prior to March 4, 2013, we can isolate Direct/Newsstand for Spawn #9 since they started recognizing it.

Since March 4, 2013, there have been 1,453 universal Spawn #9 direct editions (94.6%) and 83 universal Spawn #9 newsstands (5.4%).

If we consider the signature series books as a separate data point, then it's (Since March 4, 2013) 290 SS Spawn #9 direct editions (96.3%) and 11 SS Spawn #9 newsstands (3.7%).

Overall, there's not much change from universal, but the numbers are 1,743 Spawn #9 direct editions (94.9%) and 94 Spawn #9 newsstands (5.1%).

It would be surprising to me if that's also the original print ratio, but it is a perfectly believable scenario that Image was ordering the printing for the newsstand market for around (or exactly) 5% of their volume, and it would mean that it's possible they ordered exactly 100,000 newsstand copies for Spawn #1 to get the program started. 

The census numbers are "harder" (meaning, more concrete) numbers to work with, so they're definitely useful in this regard, though it's essential to control (as you have done) for the copies graded before that date, which were not distinguished. They may represent 0 newsstand copies, or they may represent 100...we don't know, and have no way of finding out.

We're still dealing with the same constraints...slabbing is self-selecting...but, mitigated over time, it has useful implications. When dealing with CGC copies, it must always, always, always be remembered that the vast majority of slabs are created because it is "worth it" to slab that particular copy of that particular book. What falls below the threshhold of "worth it", we don't know, and it could be a vast ocean of examples (and would tend to be, the older the book gets.) So, census numbers will always be skewed in that direction.

It would be nice to know how they arrived at whatever number they arrived at. I wonder if Larry Marder knows. I'll put it on my questions to ask him next year at SDCC.

 

[Brock]

16 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Amazing Spiderman #252 - 181 copies; 65 Direct, 116 newsstand. 36% Direct, 64% newsstand (the newsstand was still alive and well in 1984.)

I wonder about this one... Perhaps it might be best to avoid using books that "sold out" on day one in the direct market? ASM 252, Thor 337, X-Files 1, etc. sold out so quickly and rose in demand so fast, that everyone scoured the newsstands to scoop up additional copies. That would make for a much higher newsstand survival rate, a near zero return rate, and (perhaps) a skewed set numbers for those books.

Just a thought...

[FlyingDonut]

23 minutes ago, Brock said:

I wonder about this one... Perhaps it might be best to avoid using books that "sold out" on day one in the direct market? ASM 252, Thor 337, X-Files 1, etc. sold out so quickly and rose in demand so fast, that everyone scoured the newsstands to scoop up additional copies. That would make for a much higher newsstand survival rate, a near zero return rate, and (perhaps) a skewed set numbers for those books.

Just a thought...

Another one to pull from the list is Batman 428. I can personally attest to buying every copy I could find off the newsstand.

[FlyingDonut]

QUick question - are we removing variants from the selection? Wolverine 66 has 1:50, 1:25, 2nd prints, etc. etc. that will skew it high.

[divad]

5 hours ago, valiantman said:

I'm a little concerned our experiment so far is Marvel-heavy, so I'll throw a well-known DC into the mix:

New Teen Titans #2 (1980) - 197 copies, 101 Direct, 96 Newsstand, 51% Direct, 49% Newsstand

Note, I added "Deathstroke" to the Ebay search, so that it would eliminate a lot of false matches, and there's nothing about "Deathstroke" as a qualifier that is partial to either newsstand or direct editions.

This, of course, is why using popular issues at the time (including #1 issues like Wolvy 1 Ltd.) are going to unfairly skew the percentages retained and present.

[divad]

5 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

I was thinking about this over the course of this thread, and I thought it would be useful to list factors that would affect the CURRENT existence and distribution, as represented by available copies for sale on eBay, of both newsstand and Direct market copies over time.

Direct market copies:

• Non-returnable. All copies printed = all copies (theoretically) sold. All copies sold = all copies distributed. Very high survival rate.
• Generally sold to collectors. High survival rate, and in better general condition.
• Could usually be obtained from original dealers long after publication.
• Often subject to speculation, with multiple copies available from multiple sources on a regular basis.
• Not distinguished in Statements of Ownership with newsstand copies. Impossible to know actual print run, unless stated by publisher.
• After demise of SoOs, no print run data available at all.
• Sales data on Comichron represents only initial sales numbers in North America, as reported by Diamond, and includes ALL VARIANTS (if any) in those numbers
• Increase over time of "comics specialty shops", which sold (mostly) Direct copies. More care given to preserving and maintaining both existence and condition of copies.

 

Newsstand copies:

• Printed and distributed on a returnable basis. 20-50% survival rate, in general, from initial print run. Unsold copies returned and destroyed (though not always.)
• Generally sold to readers. Higher attrition rate over time, and in worse general condition.
• Rarely subject to speculation, and usually distributed as single copy sales to readers.
• Not obtainable from vendors after initial sales window
• Not distinguished in Statements of Ownership with Direct copies. Impossible to know actual print run, unless stated by publisher.
• After demise of SoOs, no print run data available at all.
• After demise of SoOs, no sales data available at all.
• Not sold (generally) in comics specialty shops. Only made their way to such shops as aftermarket items. Little care given to preserving and maintaining both existence and condition of copies.
• Potential tendency to be over-represented on eBay, due to perceived value differences with Direct copies.

Any other factors that would influence the state of these books in 2018? Any that you disagree with, or that could be worded better? 

This is quite good.  A lot of the overrepresentation on eBay comes from Mile High alone, which probably doesn't even verify whether they have any.

[divad]

46 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

QUick question - are we removing variants from the selection? Wolverine 66 has 1:50, 1:25, 2nd prints, etc. etc. that will skew it high.

Same as for #1s - I would suggest eliminating any and all major keys.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, Brock said:

I wonder about this one... Perhaps it might be best to avoid using books that "sold out" on day one in the direct market? ASM 252, Thor 337, X-Files 1, etc. sold out so quickly and rose in demand so fast, that everyone scoured the newsstands to scoop up additional copies. That would make for a much higher newsstand survival rate, a near zero return rate, and (perhaps) a skewed set numbers for those books.

Just a thought...

That's a good point, but....there's always a but...it is helpful to have at least one such issue in these results, because we know this was one of the rare books that would have sold a substantially higher percentage of newsstand copies (like Thor #337, Batman #426-429, ASM #121-122, Conan #1, etc.) if not selling out completely.

I think, based on the numbers, that it's fair to say that #252 had significant sell-through, and, while probably not a sellout, perhaps came fairly close...which is going to, as you state, lopside the numbers of surviving newsstands vs. Directs. 

If you look at the sales data, you see that for the three years prior to #252, sales were pretty steady in the 240k range...then you get nearly a 10% jump for the 1984 average.

Even more telling is that the average amount of copies printed was actually lower for 1984 than for those previous three years (554k, 513k, 470k, vs. 461k for 1984), which means the sell-through percentage was substantially higher than for those previous years: 43.8% for 1981, 46.9% for 1982, 51.4% for 1983...and a hefty 56.5% AVERAGE for 1984. 

I think that jump, even with the lower print run, was due entirely to the driving force that was #252. You get both higher sales and a substantially higher sell-through percentage, due almost entirely to that one issue. And the 261k average sold includes all versions: Direct, newsstand, Canadian newsstand. 

All of which goes to show that Marvel wasn't done with the newsstand at this point, by a very long shot. So, as long as we keep that in mind, I think it will prove to be valuable data in the long run. 

That said, there's nothing wrong with adding #238...which was not an instant hit...to the mix, since it's definitely worth listing in nearly every grade.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, FlyingDonut said:

QUick question - are we removing variants from the selection? Wolverine 66 has 1:50, 1:25, 2nd prints, etc. etc. that will skew it high.

Yes, without question.

[mr_highgrade]

6 hours ago, Brock said:

I wonder about this one... Perhaps it might be best to avoid using books that "sold out" on day one in the direct market? ASM 252, Thor 337, X-Files 1, etc. sold out so quickly and rose in demand so fast, that everyone scoured the newsstands to scoop up additional copies. That would make for a much higher newsstand survival rate, a near zero return rate, and (perhaps) a skewed set numbers for those books.

Just a thought...

That's exactly what I did with both Spidey #252 & 361. Most comic shops in NYC were only allowing you to purchase 1 to 5 copies, tops. 

I was only able to grab a total of 5 copies of Spidey #252 from 3 comic shops in NYC. Three weeks later I picked over 25 copies from newsstands all over Manhattan.

For Spidey #361 I was only able to pick up 1 copy from my comic shop.  Three weeks later I drove all over Queens and grabbed over 125 copies from the newsstands. 

[valiantman]

9 hours ago, mr_highgrade said:

16 hours ago, Brock said:

I wonder about this one... Perhaps it might be best to avoid using books that "sold out" on day one in the direct market? ASM 252, Thor 337, X-Files 1, etc. sold out so quickly and rose in demand so fast, that everyone scoured the newsstands to scoop up additional copies. That would make for a much higher newsstand survival rate, a near zero return rate, and (perhaps) a skewed set numbers for those books.

Just a thought...

That's exactly what I did with both Spidey #252 & 361. Most comic shops in NYC were only allowing you to purchase 1 to 5 copies, tops. 

I was only able to grab a total of 5 copies of Spidey #252 from 3 comic shops in NYC. Three weeks later I picked over 25 copies from newsstands all over Manhattan.

For Spidey #361 I was only able to pick up 1 copy from my comic shop.  Three weeks later I drove all over Queens and grabbed over 125 copies from the newsstands. 

I'm sure you're already aware of this, but NYC is the largest metropolitan area in the U.S., so the stories of collector activities in NYC are important but they are unique.  Outside of metro areas, it's a different history for the whole industry. For instance, the "newsstands" in my area (flyover state) at the time consisted of bent forward comics in those slotted shelves for magazines and a spinner rack next to the produce section (with the automatic water spray nozzles) in a grocery store.

The stories that I see for metropolitan areas are fascinating, and I'm sure many of the newsstand books I've bought online came from "protected environments" like serious collectors getting to the newsstands first, but the "general public" (that is, those of us common folk in the common areas of the country) had newsstands of trashed books.  Great for reading, and worthless for collecting... except maybe the 6.0 ASM #300s. 

Edited September 12, 2018 by valiantman

[Brock]

47 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I'm sure you're already aware of this, but NYC is the largest metropolitan area in the U.S., so the stories of collector activities in NYC are important but they are unique.  Outside of metro areas, it's a different history for the whole industry. For instance, the "newsstands" in my area (flyover state) at the time consisted of bent forward comics in those slotted shelves for magazines and a spinner rack next to the produce section (with the automatic water spray nozzles) in a grocery store.

The stories that I see for metropolitan areas are fascinating, and I'm sure many of the newsstand books I've bought online came from "protected environments" like serious collectors getting to the newsstands first, but the "general public" (that is, those of us common folk in the common areas of the country) had newsstands of trashed books.  Great for reading, and worthless for collecting... except maybe the 6.0 ASM #300s. 

That’s really interesting, and makes a lot of sense... but the issue may be even more nuanced. I’m originally from a community that’s so small and so remote that no one even flies over it!

But - “back in the day” - the local convenience stores that carried comic books knew that there were a few collectors around, and would hold the comics behind the counter for a day or two before racking them, in order to give the collectors first crack at them. New comic day is not just an invention of the direct market...

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Brock said:

That’s really interesting, and makes a lot of sense... but the issue may be even more nuanced. I’m originally from a community that’s so small and so remote that no one even flies over it!

But - “back in the day” - the local convenience stores that carried comic books knew that there were a few collectors around, and would hold the comics behind the counter for a day or two before racking them, in order to give the collectors first crack at them. New comic day is not just an invention of the direct market...

That makes sense... there are high-grade books from long before the direct market, so someone (somewhere) was able to get them before the riff-raff got their grubby mitts on 'em.  Treating them like throw-away entertainment.  Appalling!  

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, Brock said:

But - “back in the day” - the local convenience stores that carried comic books knew that there were a few collectors around, and would hold the comics behind the counter for a day or two before racking them, in order to give the collectors first crack at them. New comic day is not just an invention of the direct market...

That is a great anecdote, Brock. What time period are you specifically referring to? 

There were ads, as far back as the 30s and 40s, encouraging readers to "don't miss out! Reserve your copy at your local newsstand/vendor today!"

Obviously, that was possible, on some level, even back then.

[Brock]

34 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

That is a great anecdote, Brock. What time period are you specifically referring to? 

There were ads, as far back as the 30s and 40s, encouraging readers to "don't miss out! Reserve your copy at your local newsstand/vendor today!"

Obviously, that was possible, on some level, even back then.

Are you asking if I’m old? 

This would be about 1977-1980. By 1980, I’d moved to the big city and discovered comic shops.

[divad]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

1 hour ago, Brock said:

That’s really interesting, and makes a lot of sense... but the issue may be even more nuanced. I’m originally from a community that’s so small and so remote that no one even flies over it!

But - “back in the day” - the local convenience stores that carried comic books knew that there were a few collectors around, and would hold the comics behind the counter for a day or two before racking them, in order to give the collectors first crack at them. New comic day is not just an invention of the direct market...

That makes sense... there are high-grade books from long before the direct market, so someone (somewhere) was able to get them before the riff-raff got their grubby mitts on 'em.  Treating them like throw-away entertainment.  Appalling!  

This was not a common practice where I grew up. The retail center of town was one block. In the 60's there was only one "store," a small market that had a deli counter, a candy shelf, Bayer aspirin and Tums  and a spinner rack.  A drugstore started up in about 1968, and a 7-11 followed in 1973. Hardly an urban metropolis . . . but halfway between NY and Boston. It was a hugely different world back then.

But then, don't pay attention to the old guy . . . 

And only real Cities had "Newsstands" - that was something you only saw in the movies, or train stations.

 

Edited September 12, 2018 by divad

[RockMyAmadeus]

Just now, Brock said:

Are you asking if I’m old? 

This would be about 1977-1980. By 1980, I’d moved to the big city and discovered comic shops.

No, just wanted to get a sense of the time frame you were talking about. One of the great undocumented aspects of the comics publishing industry is just how the mechanism worked from publisher to printer to distributor to vendor to reader in the time before the Direct market (which is fairly well documented.) It seems no one kept many records of that process. Seems fairly straightforward, but there are all sorts of questions that are unanswered, or inadequately answered, like "how did vendors deal with collectors in the days before the comics specialty store?" and the like.

For example...did Edgar Church have a special relationship with his local vendor(s)? It's been mentioned that he did. How did that work? What did the vendors receive, and how did they go about ordering it? Did they order it? I know there was a large segment of vendors who "got what they got", and weren't able to order anything specifically. Were there distribution channels whereby someone COULD order something specifically? Did any large vendors/vendor chains attempt to circumvent the ID system that existed back then? Would they even have been allowed, since DC had its fingers in all of those pies back then, too?

So many questions....

My (incredibly limited) experience with comics as a young kid (1978-1982) was that they were sold on spinner racks at my local 7-11, or sometimes at the drug store, and the thought of asking them to "reserve a copy" would have been unthinkable to me (I grew up in the SF Bay Area.) I didn't buy or read comics as a kid, with perhaps a couple of very rare exceptions, but I do remember them being a presence in the 7-11s that I frequented as a kid playing soccer on the weekends.

Thanks for your response! 

[RockMyAmadeus]

By the way...I don't think I ever saw a real "newsstand" until I visited Washington DC as a teenager in 1985-1986. They probably had them in San Francisco, and maybe Oakland, but that would have been it. However, as mentioned, comics were a regular feature at 7-11 and Borders, Waldenbooks, Barnes & Noble, K-Mart, etc.

[divad]

That's the beauty of it.

Edited September 12, 2018 by divad