Year end stock market and oil price plunge. Any comic sellers benefitting by it? Hurt by it? 1 1

[kimik]

On 12/21/2018 at 3:36 PM, 500Club said:

I'll call him in, but, remember, if I do, there's no going back...

Remember, he is still buying expensive OA...........

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

First time in years where my 401K is less than it was 6 months ago.

[lou_fine]

On 12/22/2018 at 8:53 AM, Stefanomjr said:

Of course the market isn't the economy,  and this time around we are down (for now)  for very different reasons.  Global GDP being revised down for 2019 and a tariff war isn't the same as a credit default swaps contagion.... but you have to wonder if people are thinking twice before making a purchase, big or small.

 

On 12/22/2018 at 2:53 PM, mattn792 said:

Toss this current partial shutdown into the mix too.  One side may still cave over this weekend, or it could turn really ugly with the new Congress term about to kick off.  

Well, if you based it upon the unemployment numbers, the economy is still running on all cylinders and doing alright.  

But as we all should know by now, the stock market is generally seen as a leading indicator of where the economy is heading, while the employment numbers are generally seen as a lagging indicator of where the economy was.  So, things might not be looking so good for the overall economy going forward.    

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

1 hour ago, Aweandlorder said:

I hope that when the market takes a dip you're sensible enough to buy some houses instead of big keys

Agreed,especially now with Airbnb. That opened up another new market for passive income.

Or why not just put your money back into the beaten down stocks and wait for them to recover over time? 

Instead of running away from the stock market which most people do during these times due to their emotional fear of what is taking place, should common sense not dictate that we should really be buying when things (i.e. including company share prices) are on sale.  With the stock market though, our mentality seems to be opposite to where it should be as emotional enthusiasm takes over and most of us tend to buy when things are at a high.  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

18 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

Well, if you based it upon the unemployment numbers, the economy is still running on all cylinders and doing alright.  

But as we all should know by now, the stock market is generally seen as a leading indicator of where the economy is heading, while the employment numbers are generally seen as a lagging indicator of where the economy was.  So, things might not be looking so good for the overall economy going forward.    

I think most serious buyers are sourcing their buy money from the stock market, and believe me they feel what is happening now. A slowdown from them may produce a bit of turbulence felt throughout the hobby

[mattn792]

26 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Or why not just put your money back into the beaten down stocks and wait for them to recover over time? 

Instead of running away from the stock market which most people do during these times due to their emotional fear of what is taking place, should common sense not dictate that we should really be buying when things (i.e. including company share prices) are on sale.  With the stock market though, our mentality seems to be opposite to where it should be as emotional enthusiasm takes over and most of us tend to buy when things are at a high.  

Times like this I’m especially thankful that my broker offers a slew of commission free ETFs and mutual funds.  

[alexgross.com]

56 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Or why not just put your money back into the beaten down stocks and wait for them to recover over time? 

Instead of running away from the stock market which most people do during these times due to their emotional fear of what is taking place, should common sense not dictate that we should really be buying when things (i.e. including company share prices) are on sale.  With the stock market though, our mentality seems to be opposite to where it should be as emotional enthusiasm takes over and most of us tend to buy when things are at a high.  

this does seem like a good idea-- but people are hesitant to buy into a sinking ship, so to speak. if you think it's at the bottom and ready to come up, then it's a great time to buy. but of course no one knows where the bottom is. if the political situation in the usa gets even messier in coming weeks or months with what could be a devastating Mueller report being released, then things could possibly get a whole lot worse in the markets.  it also does not appear that all this fear about the future could be good for comic prices in the short term. fear is contagious. 

[lou_fine]

41 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I think most serious buyers are sourcing their buy money from the stock market, and believe me they feel what is happening now. A slowdown from them may produce a bit of turbulence felt throughout the hobby

Especially in light of the fact that many of today's high flying investors might not be fully diversified, and a bit over weighted in terms of the relatively higher risk but definitely more popular FAANG stocks which have taken quite a haircut in terms of a 30% to almost 50% drop from their recent all-time highs from a few short months ago.  Even though it's still assuredly a huge paper gain which most longer term investors are still holding onto right now, this recent drop would still result in a big loss of overall confidence which will tend to negatively affect investors' spending habits, including those of comic book buyers.  

Of course, if you are also an astute serious seller of comic books, you would also be aware of what is taking place in the comic book marketplace relative to the falling stock market and thereby dialing back on your consignments accordingly.   So, hopefully some of this resulting drop off in demand for comic books as a result of the falling stock market, will also be offset in part by a drop off in the supply of vintage collectible comic books in the marketplace.    

[LordRahl]

4 hours ago, Bomber-Bob said:

During the 2007-2008 period, as a collector, my first reaction was to put any new money into comics and stay away from the market. I think there was a slight delay between the market tanking and the effect on the comic marketplace. I think around 2009 prices, pretty much across the board, even keys, got soft. I soon realized comics were not the short term safe haven I thought they would be. If the current stock market crash takes down the economy and people start losing their jobs, trust me, comics will get hit. They may not tank, but they will very much soften. People that are currently paying top dollar, top GPA, for key books will get hit the hardest. It's time to be selective and go for valuation plays.  

This isn't my recollection so I perused GPA  a bit and most keys sold higher in same grade in 2009 than they did in 07/08. I'm sure there were specific instances that bucked that trend but overall GPA is showing an uptick in 09 and 07/08 selling close to 05/06 prices with a slight uptick. Of course the prices today are so much higher than they were 10 years ago that there might be more resistance to keep paying them if you just lost 20% of your net worth in the stock market.

[LordRahl]

I doubt this will happen but I would be thrilled if comic book prices were to roll back to even 2008 prices. A true tanking back to 1990s prices just isn't realistic but I'd love to buy some stuff at 2008 prices.

[lou_fine]

48 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

I doubt this will happen but I would be thrilled if comic book prices were to roll back to even 2008 prices. A true tanking back to 1990s prices just isn't realistic but I'd love to buy some stuff at 2008 prices.

On the other hand, I don't think you would be quite so enthusiastic if it also meant selling some of your stuff back at 2008 prices.    

[Bomber-Bob]

3 hours ago, LordRahl said:

This isn't my recollection so I perused GPA  a bit and most keys sold higher in same grade in 2009 than they did in 07/08. I'm sure there were specific instances that bucked that trend but overall GPA is showing an uptick in 09 and 07/08 selling close to 05/06 prices with a slight uptick. Of course the prices today are so much higher than they were 10 years ago that there might be more resistance to keep paying them if you just lost 20% of your net worth in the stock market.

From a cursory glance, I concur with your observations about GPA prices on keys selling slightly higher. However, I believe demand was soft and sales were fewer.  I remember shopping around a couple Bronze keys to dealers at the time and it was a tough sell. Unless you really needed the money, you hung on to your books. I just took a look at my ComicLink auction purchases from 2009 and many of my purchases were way under my max bids. Much easier to find bargains.

[Mmehdy]

It is safe to say that it looks a lot more stable here in the GA/SA world that the stock market...I would look to high quality books such as Cap #1, Bat #1 and FF1/AF15 as a good choice to park some of that stock market money into until things quite down a bit.

[GermanFan]

Where is comcav? He came. He bought. And then he vanished.

[Bomber-Bob]

12 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

It is safe to say that it looks a lot more stable here in the GA/SA world that the stock market...I would look to high quality books such as Cap #1, Bat #1 and FF1/AF15 as a good choice to park some of that stock market money into until things quite down a bit.

Maybe, but IMO, at this moment, cash is king. 

[GermanFan]

It was not 1990. It is now that we see the end of the post war order (Bretton Woods). A new world will emerge. Fortunes will be made. Fortunes will be lost.

[FoggyNelson]

I will be afraid to open my year end 401k statement , I will just throw it in a drawer because it would be too painful to look at😩😤😩😢☹️

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, Bomber-Bob said:

Maybe, but IMO, at this moment, cash is king. 

But for the GA/SA  right purchase, cash might not be....

[delekkerste]

23 hours ago, kimik said:

Remember, he is still buying expensive OA...........

Nope. 

I sold so much comic art in 2018 (3x more than I bought) that I have now not put any money (net) into my collection in 3 1/2 years. And, I fully expect to take more money off the table again in 2019 before everyone catches on that the Everything Bubble is deflating.

[kimik]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

Nope. 

I sold so much comic art in 2018 (3x more than I bought) that I have now not put any money (net) into my collection in 3 1/2 years. And, I fully expect to take more money off the table again in 2019 before everyone catches on that the Everything Bubble is deflating.

I know. I just wanted to attract you to this thread..... 

I am leaning towards the same decision with my comic collection - dump off a bunch of the long term keepers to buy equities when the dust settles.