Silver Age: Slump, Surge, or Natural Selection?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I've been keeping my eyes on the Silver Age market ever since I got back in it (around 1999). Right now, there are a lot of nice books available if you are a collector of high grade Silver Age Marvels. Many of which, in fact, probably would have sold 12-24 months ago.

 

Some books (mostly 9.6s and better) continue to push into record price levels, while others, predominantly post-66 books, continue to drop in value. A glance at the websites of Metro, Highgrade, Comiclink, Pedigree, and even those fixed or reserve price eBay auctions shows a depth of supply of post-66 books the likes of which I have never seen. 9.4s in particular are sitting idle in bunches.

 

So what's going on in the high grade Silver Age market? What's selling and what isn't in your opinion? Are there enough "New Money" collectors coming in to replace the many "Old Money" collectors that have left (some of which are still cashing out)? Is the devalutation of post-66 9.4s (a trend that has been underway since late 2001) going to continue? Will 9.6s be next? Will DCs get the respect they deserve as the money ebbs away from their more abundant Marvel counterparts?

 

Myself, I sold off quite a bit in high grade certified material over the last 18 months or so. And I'm glad I did, because a lot of it would have sold for less if I had waited. I still buy the occasional book, but its got to be something pretty rare and irreplaceable if I'm going to shell out over $1K.

 

Anyone else move away from high grade? If so, did you get out entirely or did you downscale your collection and grade thresholds...(nice 8.5s instead of 9.2s-9.6s....or even lower)?

 

Basically, what's your take on the high grade Silver Age market.......I would love to hear from anyone who spent some time in San Diego especially.

[the blob]

well, the post-66 stuff should have never been selling for 500-1000% of guide in the first place.

 

"A glance at the websites of Metro, Highgrade, Comiclink, Pedigree, and even those fixed or reserve price eBay auctions shows a depth of supply of post-66 books the likes of which I have never seen."

 

Really? Seems that there was plenty of this stuff at shows in the early into mid- 90s. A lot of dealers were willing to deal and I'd pick up NM copies of mid/late 60s copies of stuff like Daredevil, Captain America, TTA, TOS, Thor, ST for $10 each or so. As for many DCs, I still have them with their price tags so I can see that I picked up several gems for $5 and under.

 

CGC temporarily and artifically led some of us to believe that even these books are rare in NM. In particular, if a book that "guided" for $40, cost $25 to slab, then I guess it's supposed to be worth $150? They're rarer than their counterparts from 10-20 years later, but they're out there and 10-15 years ago few people had much interest in a lot of them.

[Sharkey]

The problem was that when CGC first came out people went nuts paying multiples of guide for a certified NM 9.4 book. Those big $$ led many collectors with high grade collections to get their books slabbed and cash out since they can realize a very high margin of profit. It also led dealers with high grade inventories to go slab-happy. So what's happened? Well when all those Mile High II and other warehouse find books are getting slabbed collectors are seeing that those orginally mythical 9.4 books are not so tough to find. The ultra-high-grade collectors turned to 9.6 and 9.8 as their threshold.

 

Look at the CGC census: there are huge numbers of many post 1966 issues in 9.4, and in some cases reasonably large numbers of 9.6 and 9.8.

 

BUT there are only so many people who are going to drop the coin on the 9.6 and 9.8 copies. The collectors with limited budgets are "settling" for very attractive 9.2 and 9.0 (or even 8.5) copies at a fraction of the cost.

 

The result is a glut of 9.4s. It'll only get worse, as more and more collectors decide its time to get their nice books slabbed and try to cash in. True high grade collectors want something nicer than a 9.4. And "regular" collectors and completists don't want ot pay 3 or 4 times guide for a book they can find easiy when they can pay 25% as much for a 9.2 and still have a stunning clean copy with few discernible flaws.

 

This shouldn't surprise anybody. The sheer number of books in large warehouse finds like MHII ensure that the laws of supply and demand would eventually catch up with the hobby.

 

At this time, this glut hasn't appeared for the 1965 and prior books. But over time it may. Certainly not to the extent of the post 1966 books, but still there may very well be more high grade copies out there than there are collectors who'll plunk down the huge dollars for 9.4 and above copies. It's going to take a lot longer to see how that goes, though.

 

Oh, and my comments here apply to Marvels. DCs (especially 10-centers) are another animal.

[steelcity]

 

I have been a DC Gold/Silver superhero collector for a long time and I have always tried to buy high grade books whenever possible. I have found it difficult to locate nice copies of many books to the extent that I have bought books graded lower than I wanted with the intention of upgrading if the opportunity should come along.

Take the example of the collector on these boards who is looking for a NM or better Superman #199. Now this book is not the scarcest Silver Age DC by any means, but it is hard to find in high grade at any given time. If a collector wakes up one morning and thinks "Today I want to find a NM copy of..." (substitute any specific issue of a Silver Age DC title) chances are they will struggle. Yet, high grade copies of just about everything do come along given patience and the will to pay the asking price when it happens!

I think long issue issue runs can be off-putting for collectors and affect prices, too.

The DC anthology titles, Action, Adventure, Detective etc had been around a long time by the mid 1960s. The guide lists these long running titles in the same way as every other title, most of which will not have 1960s issue numbers in the #300 plus. So, we see books in the guide grouped together, in batches of increasing issue number, with decreasing prices the further we go into the run. Odd keys may disrupt this downward price trend but that's how it works. By the time the DC title gets to the mid 1960s the prices have fallen steadily to a point where they are perhaps too low given the age and scarcity of quality copies. The difficulty arises when a collector might believe thay can find and buy that elusive black cover book in NM, say Action #391, for....$30!

[Aman619]

makes sense. I think many fo us guessed at this future scenario playing out and tried to focus on only those comics with grades that would hold up. There ARE a lot of comics in circulation as you say.... we'll see how it all sorts out, and just how scarce even the early books really are...

[Silver Surfer]

I have become a big advocate of 9.2's with nice page quality. I have been able to build some decent runs with half the cost (or less) than 9.4's. I'll still shell out cash for 9.4's or higher but I'll usually reserve that for my favorite books in a particular run.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

well, the post-66 stuff should have never been selling for 500-1000% of guide in the first place.

 

"A glance at the websites of Metro, Highgrade, Comiclink, Pedigree, and even those fixed or reserve price eBay auctions shows a depth of supply of post-66 books the likes of which I have never seen."

 

Really? Seems that there was plenty of this stuff at shows in the early into mid- 90s. A lot of dealers were willing to deal and I'd pick up NM copies of mid/late 60s copies of stuff like Daredevil, Captain America, TTA, TOS, Thor, ST for $10 each or so. As for many DCs, I still have them with their price tags so I can see that I picked up several gems for $5 and under.

 

CGC temporarily and artifically led some of us to believe that even these books are rare in NM. In particular, if a book that "guided" for $40, cost $25 to slab, then I guess it's supposed to be worth $150? They're rarer than their counterparts from 10-20 years later, but they're out there and 10-15 years ago few people had much interest in a lot of them.

 

I didn't mean to imply that post-66 material was ever scarce in high grade, simply that there is an overabundance of certified high grade Marvels from 1966-1971 on the market right now. And since most of the big dealers aren't going to be discounting them to near eBay prices just to sell them, its becomes a supply issue with too few new collectors out there willing to pay 2001-2003 prices for what are pretty common books.

 

So, I think we are in basic agreement.

[namisgr]

Depends on the title. Amazing Spider-man and FF continue to sizzle in NM condition even for late Silver Age issues. There were a slew of these ASM books sold on CL a couple of months ago, then the Paradise Comics auction on E-Bay realized many record prices for issues in the 80s and 90s. I also see later vintage TTA and TOS books selling for more than I am willing to spend in recent Heritage auctions, and the Adams X-Men run never seems to decline in price.

 

So what's languishing?

[blowout]

Not another crash thread...

[Norrin_Radd]

Not another crash thread...

 

It has been a year. We're due.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Depends on the title. Amazing Spider-man and FF continue to sizzle in NM condition even for late Silver Age issues. There were a slew of these ASM books sold on CL a couple of months ago, then the Paradise Comics auction on E-Bay realized many record prices for issues in the 80s and 90s. I also see later vintage TTA and TOS books selling for more than I am willing to spend in recent Heritage auctions, and the Adams X-Men run never seems to decline in price.

 

So what's languishing?

 

I guess it depends. I just checked a number of late Silver Spideys and 9.4s on the whole seem to be trending downward. Of course, GPA is hardly the most accurate market price indicator, but it is pretty reliable. Interestingly, 9.2 Spideys seem to be trending up, which I think is pretty positive.

 

Of course, some titles are dead, dead, dead. Thor would be an excellent example. Even early Journey into Mysterys aren't getting the attention they did just a year or so ago.

[shrunkenhead]

 

Of course, some titles are dead, dead, dead. Thor would be an excellent example. Even early Journey into Mysterys aren't getting the attention they did just a year or so ago.

 

So then methinks that now would be a good time to buy these. They'll cycle back. Then again, I'm the farthest thing from a Marvel zombie, so don't take my advice to the bank.

[tth2]

Rhino and steelcity, good posts. Totally agree with you.

[tth2]

Even early Journey into Mysterys aren't getting the attention they did just a year or so ago.

This is an unfair comparison. For the last few years, JIMs have been white hot and experiencing massive price increases. It had to stop at some point, which apparently appears to be now. Dealers are currently pricing in the same price jumps for early HG JIMs that they experienced in the past, and the market is balking at this.

[the blob]

most dealers probably would have laughed if 10-15 years ago you told them that putting a post-'66 NM comic in a plastic case would make it worth 500-1000% of guide, particularly Marvels from that era.

 

high grade in a slab ought to trade at a premium over guide, but not that kind of premium. OPG's "9.2" decision has further complicated things as buyers balk at paying big multiples of the top price in OPG for 9.4s. For 1960s and earlier, OPG should probably just have a slabbed 9.4 price column that reflects the market rather than people trying to extrapolate from 9.2 raw prices. Yeah, I know there's GPA, but not everyone is linked into that and a still have to think that buying/bidding is still being based on multiples of OPG 9.2 raw.

[namisgr]

Don't know, George, when you last checked out GPA, but I went back over the Paradise e-bay auction and found the following mind-altering prices realized for 9.4 copies:

 

ASM 70 $660

ASM 78 $400

ASM 83 $443

ASM 86 $931

ASM 87 $456

ASM 92 $455

ASM 94 $387

 

Admittedly, these all had w or ow/w pages, but these are the highest prices I can recall for late Silver Spideys. Same deal with that incredible oversupply of late Silver and early Bronze ASM listed a couple of months back on C-Link. Thors do, indeed, seem weak, which is why I've been trying hard to fill in the few missing high grade issues in the run. As for weakness in JIMs, I honestly think a year or two ago there were 3 main buyers of these books in high grade (Quality, R100, and me), and none of us are still looking to acquire these issues (excepting the 84,95,103, and 114 that is - [hint]).

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Don't know, George, when you last checked out GPA, but I went back over the Paradise e-bay auction and found the following mind-altering prices realized for 9.4 copies:

 

ASM 70 $660

ASM 78 $400

ASM 83 $443

ASM 86 $931

ASM 87 $456

ASM 92 $455

ASM 94 $387

 

Admittedly, these all had w or ow/w pages, but these are the highest prices I can recall for late Silver Spideys. Same deal with that incredible oversupply of late Silver and early Bronze ASM listed a couple of months back on C-Link. Thors do, indeed, seem weak, which is why I've been trying hard to fill in the few missing high grade issues in the run. As for weakness in JIMs, I honestly think a year or two ago there were 3 main buyers of these books in high grade (Quality, R100, and me), and none of us are still looking to acquire these issues (excepting the 84,95,103, and 114 that is - [hint]).

 

When I checked GPA, I just used Spidey 90-100....two of the eleven were trending up in 9.4 & 8 were trending down. 9.2s are moving up almost across the board (which is a good thing). I probably should have used a broader range in my search.

 

My post was also a response to what I perceive to be a bit of a glut in available high grade material. For instance, back when I was actively buying, you were lucky to have 60-70 certifed FFs available on eBay at any one time. Now, between CGC & CGX books, there are over 300, many of which are high grade late Silver and Bronze. I'm glad the movie has brought out the sellers, but I'll be interested to see if its going ot bring out the buyers as well.

 

The Heritage auction this past weekend was all over the place for FFs...some high, but most trending lower. Even early issues aren't immune. The hottest FF of the last year (# 5) in 6.5 with OW/W pages brought only $1,150 with a buyer's premium, several hundred below what it would have sold for, say, six months ago. Could just be the Annual Summer Swoon I guess, but there is another round of high grade FFs up for the next auction and I'll be interested to see how they finish.

 

As for my earlier comment about the material available on certain websites....it just seems to me that there is a disconnect between dealer prices and the current market, especially with late Silver material. For instance, in last week's Heritage auction, a FF # 73 in 9.4 with OW/W pages sold for $184 (with the juice). If you wish, you can opt for Metro's copy though (also a 9.4 with OW/W pages) for $440.

I understand Metro's pricing philosophy, it has served them well I'm sure, but its just not where the late Silver market is going (or has been going for a while).

 

 

[whetteon]

Noobie question time!

 

Is the 1966 to early 1972 books in HG glut because they had such huge print runs or was it because every chuck and his neighbor were storing these away for future appreciation and pedigree status (that's right, I went there).

[tth2]

Noobie question time!

 

Is the 1966 to early 1972 books in HG glut because they had such huge print runs or was it because every chuck and his neighbor were storing these away for future appreciation and pedigree status (that's right, I went there).

because every one was storing books AND because a lot of extra copies went into warehouses.

 

I`m curious why you stop at early 1972. I think the HG glut continues from there onto present day.

[whetteon]

Noobie question time!

 

Is the 1966 to early 1972 books in HG glut because they had such huge print runs or was it because every chuck and his neighbor were storing these away for future appreciation and pedigree status (that's right, I went there).

because every one was storing books AND because a lot of extra copies went into warehouses.

 

I`m curious why you stop at early 1972. I think the HG glut continues from there onto present day.

 

I read it in one of the earlier postings. I just regurgitate information.