Newsstand vs Direct Edition, At Grader's Discretion?? 4 4

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, bababooey said:

If fixing the misconception of rarer newsstands for the 7 years prior to 1986 was the goal, congratulations!  You've done it at the expense of the 17 plus years after 1986 and beyond.    

Are you saying that a chart which shows "more direct" after 1986 and "less newsstand" after 1986 is wrong?  Because it's not wrong... and since it's not wrong then I haven't done anything at the expense of the 17 plus years after 1986.

The chart shows the "50/50" point around 1986, but we can now see on GPAnalysis that Amazing Spider-Man #238 (from 1983) had 342 sales of CGC 9.0 or higher in 2020, and only 22 of them were newsstand (6.4%).

The original 50/50 point MIGHT have been 1986, but the survival rates are ridiculously lopsided toward direct editions as early as 1983 when it comes to Amazing Spider-Man #238.

All of the charts produced by me (or anyone else) at this point would have collectors believing newsstand was "plentiful" in 1983, but actual data is showing 6.4%, if you want a CGC graded 9.0+ for a common issue.  The numbers are higher for newsstand in 2021 sales (so far), but we're nowhere near 50/50, despite the original print runs.

Ultimately what survived means a lot more than what was printed, and if the charts are wrong... they're wrong in the opposite direction of your claims.  To follow your advice would actually make them worse... at the expense of common sense.

Edited May 28, 2021 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

26 minutes ago, valiantman said:

1 hour ago, bababooey said:

If fixing the misconception of rarer newsstands for the 7 years prior to 1986 was the goal, congratulations!  You've done it at the expense of the 17 plus years after 1986 and beyond.    

Are you saying that a chart which shows "more direct" after 1986 and "less newsstand" after 1986 is wrong?

No, he's saying that, despite your intentions, to the average person who doesn't know anything about the subject, your chart that has the Newsstand line so near to the bottom by/before 2000 seems to be supporting the assertions made by others with... different intentions.

[Timeless icons]

23 hours ago, valiantman said:

 

 

 

 

[Randall Dowling]

On 5/27/2021 at 4:34 PM, valiantman said:

 

That's a lot of Spider-man 300s!!    

[GarBear]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

All of the charts produced by me (or anyone else) at this point would have collectors believing newsstand was "plentiful" in 1983, but actual data is showing 6.4%, if you want a CGC graded 9.0+ for a common issue.  The numbers are higher for newsstand in 2021 sales (so far), but we're nowhere near 50/50, despite the original print runs.

It looks to me like you've done a 180 on newsstands being more rare somewhere around 1983, at least for Spider-Man stuff.  The over riding complaint was the J-Monty knows nothing, lies through his teeth but in the end, you agree with his points even to the degree that you'll support it in 1983.  My thought was from 1988 to somewhere around 1998 or a bit later.  Have I not been listening? 

[GarBear]

On 5/27/2021 at 12:20 PM, Lazyboy said:

Smart collectors Gullible fools who believe everything they read were taking advantage of my ignorance () and snapping up those possibly slightly more rare comics because they thought they knew more than me anything.

Hey Valiantman, I,m really sorry, it was actually Lazyboy that was cranking against 'rare' editions being newsstands.  He basically said anyone that believes that is a fool.  Hope he read your analysis on the subject here!  It seems to be pretty clear, at least by the numbers, that Direct Edition copies far out weigh the Newsstand copies within those time frames and proves pretty clearly Newsstands during that time are much rarer.  Thanks for your clarity in this discussion!

[valiantman]

Yes, it can be true that newsstands were printed in higher numbers in 1983 and yes, it can also be true that 38 years later, there are nowhere near as many high CGC grade 1983 newsstands in the market, for Amazing Spider-Man #238.

Those are both reasonable things to accept when all the available data matches.

Not liking the answer doesn't change it.

[GarBear]

Just so it shows a real case:

Issue #238A

Amazing Spider-Man (1963 1st Series) #238A for sale at $995 on MCS.

 

I sold my CGC 9.0 October 2018 for $220.  At that time I really didn't know about the Newsstand, fool that I was!  Let's see, that would be roughly 3 years ago.  So, now the Newsstand is supposedly 448% more valuable 3 years later?  Often wondered why that comic went up so high so fast, meaning it was really less than 3 years when it jumped in price.  Oh, what a 'fool' I was.... 

[Lazyboy]

7 minutes ago, GarBear said:

Hey Valiantman, I,m really sorry, it was actually Lazyboy that was cranking against 'rare' editions being newsstands.  He basically said anyone that believes that is a fool.  Hope he read your analysis on the subject here!  It seems to be pretty clear, at least by the numbers, that Direct Edition copies far out weigh the Newsstand copies within those time frames and proves pretty clearly Newsstands during that time are much rarer.  Thanks for your clarity in this discussion!

Regarding the first bold part, you sure are, because regarding the second bold part:

Congratulations on proving me right, I guess.

[Lazyboy]

7 minutes ago, GarBear said:

Just so it shows a real case:

Issue #238A

Amazing Spider-Man (1963 1st Series) #238A for sale at $995 on MCS.

 

I sold my CGC 9.0 October 2018 for $220.  At that time I really didn't know about the Newsstand, fool that I was!  Let's see, that would be roughly 3 years ago.  So, now the Newsstand is supposedly 448% more valuable 3 years later?  Often wondered why that comic went up so high so fast, meaning it was really less than 3 years when it jumped in price.  Oh, what a 'fool' I was.... 

You realize that asking prices mean nothing, right?

Even fixed price sales don't necessarily mean that much, just that one person was willing to pay that price (assuming a real sale with no market-manipulating shenanigans).

But yes, ASM 238 has been hot and a sale over two years ago in this insane market might as well be two decades ago, Newsstand or not.

[Lazyboy]

42 minutes ago, GarBear said:

The over riding complaint was the J-Monty knows nothing

If you don't understand that that's true, you also know nothing.

I'm guessing you didn't bother reading any part of the threads I linked. If you want to learn anything, you have to invest the time, not just read one piece of garbage copied by an insufficiently_thoughtful_person from another insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

[bababooey]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Yes, it can be true that newsstands were printed in higher numbers in 1983 and yes, it can also be true that 38 years later, there are nowhere near as many high CGC grade 1983 newsstands in the market, for Amazing Spider-Man #238.

Those are both reasonable things to accept when all the available data matches.

Not liking the answer doesn't change it.

I'm confused, just what is your graphic showing as the "50/50" point ?

Is your graphic demonstrating that more direct copies were PRINTED as of 1986?

Is your graphic demonstrating that more direct copies were sold vs. copies of newsstand copies sold^?  (not returned)

OR 

Is it something not based on number of copies printed or sold and simply based on your assessment of the current number of copies that survived, were graded by CGC and then listed and sold on ebay?

It's hard to respond when your reasoning seems unrelated to production and sales.  Some clarity on what your thought process was when you felt a need to create it, I was always under the impression it was "sold newsstands" vs direct copies....it'd be nice to settle that before we move on to nose picking stationary store clerks & 8 year old boys folding the comics in half to fit them in their back pocket.

Edited May 29, 2021 by bababooey
Bolded, edited and added "50/50 point" as used by valiantman

[Cpt Kirk]

6 hours ago, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

A lot of people do dismiss DC, but there are several, myself included, who do collect them. DC did have some garbage data as did Marvel, but the did run newsstand until 2017. Here is the list of projected last newsstand issues vs actual confirmed last newsstand issues.  

And I do know several of these titles can be confirmed by someone who collected every newsstand issue in the titles he collected. 

@Cpt Kirk

yup.  I got them all in the titles of Batman, Detective, Superman, and Action Comics.

[bababooey]

Alright, let's do this year with publisher data from Comichron ASM v2 #24

Oct00: ASM #465 (24) = 50,200...#14 for the month

Sep00: ASM #464 (23) = 49,300...#18 for the month

Aug00: ASM #463 (22) = 49,900...#13 for the month

Jul00: ASM #462 (21) = 51,900...#14 for the month

Jun00: ASM #461 (20) = 53,500...#12 for the month

May00: ASM #460 (19) = 53,000...#12 for the month

Apr00: ASM #459 (18) = 53,200...#16 for the month

Msr00: ASM #458 (17) = 54,100...#14 for the month

Feb00: ASM #457 (16) = 53,200...#15 for the month

Jan00: ASM #456 (15) = 56,400...#13 for the month

Dec99: ASM #455 (14) = 61,900...#11 for the month

Nov99: ASM #454 (13) = 58,900...#13 for the month

Oct99: ASM #453 (12) = 62,000...#11 for the month

Now I'll concede that the second year of the ASM reboot was probably Marvel's best newsstand title...but we're at approximately 50/50 on each version sold in 2000.  Juice it up with 5% intl and 7K in subs and the direct editions sold just might reach 60% of total copies sold but all the charts show 95 direct/5 newsstand in 2000. 

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by bababooey
Last sentence added.

[Funnybooks]

7 minutes ago, bababooey said:

Alright, let's do this year with publisher data from Comichron ASM v2 #24

Oct00: ASM #465 (24) = 50,200...#14 for the month

Sep00: ASM #464 (23) = 49,300...#18 for the month

Aug00: ASM #463 (22) = 49,900...#13 for the month

Jul00: ASM #462 (21) = 51,900...#14 for the month

Jun00: ASM #461 (20) = 53,500...#12 for the month

May00: ASM #460 (19) = 53,000...#12 for the month

Apr00: ASM #459 (18) = 53,200...#16 for the month

Msr00: ASM #458 (17) = 54,100...#14 for the month

Feb00: ASM #457 (16) = 53,200...#15 for the month

Jan00: ASM #456 (15) = 56,400...#13 for the month

Dec99: ASM #455 (14) = 61,900...#11 for the month

Nov99: ASM #454 (13) = 58,900...#13 for the month

Oct99: ASM #453 (12) = 62,000...#11 for the month

Now I'll concede that the second year of the ASM reboot was probably Marvel's best newsstand title...but we're at approximately 50/50 on each version sold in 2000.

 

[bababooey]

Bad as can.

[Funnybooks]

I got discovered since I was like four years old. Since I was like, two years old. We met like two years. Because I been at the bar for like, a long time. That's where I met Howard, at the bar, yeah

[paqart]

On 5/27/2021 at 3:43 PM, GarBear said:

Well, gee, could you take the time to share those "very, very incorrect and potentially very harmful" parts of the article so I am no longer a fool about that specific topic?  I'm being serious, no bashing or crazy stuff, just would like to know 'the truth' from someone that knows this stuff better than others.  Of course, if you don't have the time, I'll understand too.

Good Day To You 

I put LazyBoy on ignore a long time ago. You may want to consider doing it as well.

[paqart]

On 5/27/2021 at 7:52 PM, GarBear said:

Well, thanks for all the input.  Too bad the discussion had to go sideways.  That newsstand 101 was great and seemed very solid and easy to understand.  I agree that it's a personal preference for newsstand vs direct.  The problem is that once I know what the difference is, I tend to gravitate toward newsstand, leaning more to the 1988 through 1998 comics.  These do seem to be the dates that Marvel really cut distribution down and currently there are fewer in recent sales which shows good proof that "rare" is truly showing up within that era and a little later.  I only am dealing with Marvel and DC mostly.  We all know the market will change many times in the next 10 years and, speculation has always been a collector's way of life.  I was able to glean much from some of every-ones thoughts on the issue.  As to those who think its all fake, well, it's a free United States for now and we all can think what we want.  I just wanted some honest input on the subject.  I believe for the most part I got that.  There will always be opinions, good and bad but I like to look over the information and make my own conclusion rather than go with the herd.  Thanks to all that participated! 

GarBear

FWIW, this is what I'm collecting:

2014-2017: DC/Dark Horse Newsstand
1999-2013:Marvel/DC/Dark Horse/Valiant newsstand
1980 (or so)-1990: Marvel/DC Canadian/British editions

1979: Marvel direct

1975-1978: all Marvel

1961-1974: Marvel/DC US/British/Canadian editions

1941-1960: Carl Barks duck comics and DC superhero comics

Speaking of "rarity" in the context of availability, I have discovered that it is fairly easy to find a copy of Four Color #9 (1942, first Barks Donald Duck), meaning, in any given week I can locate one for sale at an appropriate price. On the other hand, there are many modern newsstands that I have been looking for over a period of years and still haven't seen any copies available for sale. In some cases, I also haven't been able to find evidence of any copies having sold in auctions I missed. Out of all the comics I collect, the ones that are the most difficult to find tend to be in the 1999-2008 period at Marvel, particularly price variants from 1999-2000. For that reason, I have shifted my focus completely to modern newsstands.

 

[Lazyboy]

29 minutes ago, paqart said:

I put LazyBoy on ignore a long time ago. You may want to consider doing it as well.

Yeah, insufficiently_thoughtful_persons are afraid of what they don't understand.