Are we looking at a slab crash?

[Red Hook]

Me three.

[skybolt]

Me Four.

 

Well, we've got 5 people so far.

[the blob]

the multiples and spreads being paid for differences between 8.5, 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, etc. on some of these books were way too big to start with and totally out of wack with the way things were pre-CGC (even if you're talking about high end auctions like christies). perhaps this will bring some sanity to it.

 

is it going to hurt the market for $75 - $250 books? perhaps not.

[FlyingDonut]

the multiples and spreads being paid for differences between 8.5, 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, etc. on some of these books were way too big to start with and totally out of wack with the way things were pre-CGC (even if you're talking about high end auctions like christies). perhaps this will bring some sanity to it.

 

is it going to hurt the market for $75 - $250 books? perhaps not.

 

I don't think it will have any effect at all on raw books. They will trade at the same discounts to Guide that they always have.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I saw that, but without more details on the data, methodology, etc., I have no idea if that graph is meaningful or not. George Pantela of GPAnalysis posted a lot of graphs about the BA market in the Bronze Forum recently and it looks like the BA slabbed market, as a whole, topped out in the 3rd quarter of 2004 (at least for the time being and I'm not sure that, given the present circumstances, we're going to exceed those highs anytime soon, if at all).

 

So, most Bronze peaked a year ago, non-key Silver Age probably not soon thereafter (HG JIMs, anyone?) if the anecdotes I'm hearing are correct and key Silver Age looks to be the last segment to top out. Not surprising at all. The market has been weakening for some time, whether it's due to high debt, high energy prices or simply the large increase in supply of HG books popping up over the past year (due in large part to rampant pressing, which is still being all but ignored given the recent trimming revelations). The Ewert scandal is a slap in the face, to be sure, but I'm not sure it's going to do anything but exacerbate a downtrend that had already taken hold over the past 12 months.

 

I agree. Pricing trends have been down ever since last Fall, at least for many of the books that I personally track (mostly high grade Silver Age Marvels). With a few notable exceptions, the overall numbers have been moving south since that time. In hindsight, the 1st and 2nd quarters of '04 will probably be remembered as the peak of the certified Boom (anyone still remember those ridiculous prices paid for Eides books last Spring/Summer?).

 

What this market didn't need at this point was the Trimming scandal. Or higher energy prices. Or continued economic and inflation concerns....

 

Also, to illustrate the continuing disconnect between past and present, a CGC 9.0 copy of FF # 23 sold this past week on Heritage for $391. There are currently two comparable copies on Pedigree, both priced at $1,000.

 

Slight discrepency anyone?

 

some things to consider about these three books;

 

1. possibly the Pedigree copies are nicer??

 

2. you know that the pedigree copies weren't consigned by Jason Ewert??

 

3. Heritage is an auction site (dare i say like e-bay and some comiclink stuff) and will often stray from FMV based on so many potential factors.

 

i'm guessing you're somewhat correct, however, and niether copy of FF #23 on Pedigree will sell for those prices, but wouldn't be at all surprised if they passed the $391, soon............. IMHO..

 

The one on Heritage was a decent copy, though it did have CRM/OW pages. In fact, I called CGC for the notes, and it got 9.0s from all three graders, so it wasn't a weak book. I'm a bit surprised it went for as little as it did.

 

Sadly, I think it is a reflection of the market in general. Back when I collected high grade FFs hardcore, FF # 23 was a tough book to locate. Now, besides the 2 9.0s I mentioned, there are also two 9.2s, and a 8.5 currently available through Comiclink, Pedigree, and Highgradecomics. That's five to choose from, all at peak prices...and though most have attracted decent bids, they aren't moving. Logic dictates that in any market, when supply exceeds demand, prices go down. Enter the Heritage copy, which sold for a much lower price because of lower demand. (To be fair in my analysis, I should point out that another 9.2 copy has gone Pending on Comiclink for $1,200...but it wasn't a new listing by any stretch and had been sitting for a while).

 

Auction sites like eBay and Heritage may not comprise the whole of the market (as you so rightly pointed out), but I think they provide a much better reflection of the market sentiment during a particular week, or month, than a dealer or consignor holding out for the "right buyer at the right price" before selling a book. If we as a community all marvel (pardon the pun) when "tough" books in high grade sell for record dough on eBay, we can't easily dismiss the reverse (higher supply/availability, lower sales prices) as just being an anomoly.

[Foolkiller]

How about the impact to dealers who price their raw as if they were slabs like Ted VanLiew and Al Stoltz? I think it will have an impact on the high end. As for the low end, I agree -- no changes.

 

the multiples and spreads being paid for differences between 8.5, 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, etc. on some of these books were way too big to start with and totally out of wack with the way things were pre-CGC (even if you're talking about high end auctions like christies). perhaps this will bring some sanity to it.

 

is it going to hurt the market for $75 - $250 books? perhaps not.

 

I don't think it will have any effect at all on raw books. They will trade at the same discounts to Guide that they always have.

[sfilosa]

Let me comment a little on my chart (since it is being used in this discussion).

 

The methodology is simple: the issues that I stated in the grades from 7.0-9.0, only from GPA data. All I did was plot the first recorded sale of an issue in that grade for the month on June 2002 (start of GPA data). It didn't matter if the first sale didn't occur till 2004. I then plotted that same amount for each subsequent month until another sale occured and so on. The chart is based on percent change from the first sale instead of real dollars so every issue and grade is represented equally.

 

I honestly believe that if a few more sales occured this month (now) that the chart would CONTINUE an UPTREND.

 

I say this because key books will always have the strongest demand and will usually be the last books anyone (especially dealers) are going to sell at a significant discount.

 

 

REGARDING if a decrease in HG CGC books will affect the whole comic collecting market, let me say this:

 

There are really two areas that keep significant new money coming into comic collecting.

 

1) High Grade (or expensive low grade) Older Issues (CGC'd or not)

2) New Comics.

 

New comics are the bread and butter of the LCS and HG books of the big convention (and website) dealers. Without these markets all you would have is basically FLEA MARKET conventions and very little reason for dealers to acquire new collections for any significant money (since most already have a huge inventory of low and mid grade less expensive books).

 

Just my 2 cents.

[JammnIT]

I have 3 more books going out in the morning....

[herc2000]

I don't think the Ewert thing will make much difference, after all how many forum members bid on his stuff in the first place? Not many, if any. There has been a decrease in prices for awhile now, unless it is something real special like a Detective 359 cgc 9.6 for instance which will always get big bids, as it is scarce in high grade and very sought after, (common in low, and them damn reprints, ).

[goldust40]

Goldust; Your figures show 3% of the books,not 3% of the dollar market,which is the only meaningful statistic.

If I have an Action#1, and you have a pallet of WildCats #7,who has a larger share of the market?

 

You're right of course, but I thought it was worth mentioning...

[tth2]

I don't think it will have any effect at all on raw books. They will trade at the same discounts to Guide that they always have.

Dan, you're right. But therefore, if Guide goes down, then the price of raw books WILL decline. There's no doubt in my mind that the prices achieved by HG slabbed books have helped to pull up 9.2 Guide prices, which in turn has helped to pull up non-HG Guide prices. If HG slab prices crash, there will definitely be a ripple effect in the entire hobby.

[Aces]

I don't think it will have any effect at all on raw books. They will trade at the same discounts to Guide that they always have.

Dan, you're right. But therefore, if Guide goes down, then the price of raw books WILL decline. There's no doubt in my mind that the prices achieved by HG slabbed books have helped to pull up 9.2 Guide prices, which in turn has helped to pull up non-HG Guide prices. If HG slab prices crash, there will definitely be a ripple effect in the entire hobby.

 

But the guide is way too high for mid grade post 1964.

I have to pray for half guide when I sell and normally go down to 40% when selling to my repeat custoners.

[tth2]

I don't think it will have any effect at all on raw books. They will trade at the same discounts to Guide that they always have.

Dan, you're right. But therefore, if Guide goes down, then the price of raw books WILL decline. There's no doubt in my mind that the prices achieved by HG slabbed books have helped to pull up 9.2 Guide prices, which in turn has helped to pull up non-HG Guide prices. If HG slab prices crash, there will definitely be a ripple effect in the entire hobby.

 

But the guide is way too high for mid grade post 1964.

I have to pray for half guide when I sell and normally go down to 40% when selling to my repeat custoners.

I understand. But I don't think the discount gap will close up if mid-grade Guide prices go down. The gap will stay constant, so when the Guide goes down, the prices paid will go down correspondingly.

[Aces]

I don't think it will have any effect at all on raw books. They will trade at the same discounts to Guide that they always have.

Dan, you're right. But therefore, if Guide goes down, then the price of raw books WILL decline. There's no doubt in my mind that the prices achieved by HG slabbed books have helped to pull up 9.2 Guide prices, which in turn has helped to pull up non-HG Guide prices. If HG slab prices crash, there will definitely be a ripple effect in the entire hobby.

 

But the guide is way too high for mid grade post 1964.

I have to pray for half guide when I sell and normally go down to 40% when selling to my repeat custoners.

I understand. But I don't think the discount gap will close up if mid-grade Guide prices go down. The gap will stay constant, so when the Guide goes down, the prices paid will go down correspondingly.

 

I think they might.

I'm thinking of all those "$20 Fines" we have to sell for $8.

If the guide dropped to $10 I think I could still get about $8 for a nice 6.0 Thor in the 130-160s on eBay.

 

The guide is inflated to protect dealers.

They can have a "Half Book" sale and still sell at slightly over fair market value.

[drbanner]

HG raw prices went up with CGC, but mid and low grade went nowhere...I suspect if HG raw goes down, mid and low grade go down even further. If not, there would be a point where a mid/high-grade books suddenly sells for the same price as a mid/low-grade book, right?

[davidking623]

Since this Jason scandal was uncovered do you think that the confidence level of slabbed buyers or even raw will affect the future prices of the comic market? So many books which will be in circulation will be removed from holders because of paranoia

might scare off potential buyers to buy.

 

If we keep this chicken little attitude about the sky falling, yeah we will create one. But it won't last long....every hobby has gone through something like this and it is a "normal" cycle as nothing stays constant. Do I think an hi grade FF #1 or Action #1 will be had below guide? Probably not......

 

Almost 2006 CGC started in 2000 almost 6 years now Oh boy the sky is falling the sky is falling! I wonder if 2010 will be filled with as many chicken littles then as there is now!

 

I wonder has anyone ever had there car fixed by a mechanic or say maybe a electricain or plumber on there house? Im sorry but the best do make mistakes at there profession, I know it to be a fact! CGC will have stones cast at them till the Comic book market crashes or keeps going strong,it wont matter which! They are are a grading company of Comic books and it is there opinion that we value so much as why we pay the high prices for slabbed books and submissions! They are not a insurance company of trimmed books and restored books that they missed with putting a blue label on the book although there should be some accountability for doing such! Maybe take some insurance out with Loyds of London against such a slight chance of this happening with the insurance policy being good for the life of ownership of the book until proven otherwise,just a thought! Woops hope J E doent read this He will truly be on to something then, insurance fraud!

 

Davidking623

[davidking623]

I don't think the Ewert thing will make much difference, after all how many forum members bid on his stuff in the first place? Not many, if any. There has been a decrease in prices for awhile now, unless it is something real special like a Detective 359 cgc 9.6 for instance which will always get big bids, as it is scarce in high grade and very sought after, (common in low, and them damn reprints, ).

 

I never did win anything from JE as I always thought having to contact him to pass the 3% on to me was a crock of !

 

Davidking623

[skybolt]

I don't think the Ewert thing will make much difference, after all how many forum members bid on his stuff in the first place? Not many, if any. There has been a decrease in prices for awhile now, unless it is something real special like a Detective 359 cgc 9.6 for instance which will always get big bids, as it is scarce in high grade and very sought after, (common in low, and them damn reprints, ).

 

I never did win anything from JE as I always thought having to contact him to pass the 3% on to me was a crock of !

 

Davidking623

 

I did bid on his stuff a couple of years ago, but never won anything. His winning bids were always way too high.

[tth2]

I think they might.

I'm thinking of all those "$20 Fines" we have to sell for $8.

If the guide dropped to $10 I think I could still get about $8 for a nice 6.0 Thor in the 130-160s on eBay.

 

The guide is inflated to protect dealers.

They can have a "Half Book" sale and still sell at slightly over fair market value.

I hear you, but I just can't see it happening. The prices of HG books start falling, so in response people start paying MORE for non-HG books? It has NEVER happened that way in the past, and I doubt it will in the future, because of the collector mentality.

 

This is undoubtedly an elitist assumption on my part, but I don't think most collectors who buy lower grade books do so because they love and covet comics that have lots of wear and tear. It's usually driven by cost, and what they can reasonably afford. Even the most avowed mid-grade and low-grade collectors on these boards are constantly on the prowl for upgrades, if the price is right. If HG prices plunge and start becoming affordable for these currently lower grade collectors, then lower grade comics have to compete for their dollars, and the only way they're going to be able to do that is by being priced even cheaper.

[Aces]

HG raw prices went up with CGC, but mid and low grade went nowhere...I suspect if HG raw goes down, mid and low grade go down even further. If not, there would be a point where a mid/high-grade books suddenly sells for the same price as a mid/low-grade book, right?

 

Well if there was a major correction/drop in guide prices then of coarse...

But I'l doubt we are going to see anything more than a 10-20% dip in HG.

 

Us mid grade collectors are trying to put runs togher.

Our slogan: "Highest possible grade at the Lowest possible cost!"

 

Say I'm looking for a nice raw F/F+ Thor 127 which books for about $30 in "slightly better than Fine" grade.

 

If I see one on eBay, I'll bid $15.75 (half book and change).

I figure this gives me about a 50% at getting a book I want at a nice price.

 

Now lets say this happens next year when the new guide comes out after the crash and it books for $15, half of what it did last year.

 

I'm still bidding around $15 because I think $15 is a fair price for a F+ copy of Thor 127. Maybe I'll have a better chance at winning it because some people a glued to the guide. But I use my 30 years of experience and decide "my price" for a book I want based upon:

 

1) My wallet size that month.

2) Rarity ~ "Gosh I haven't seen a nice Fine JIM 91 in 6 months and I better grab this one!"

3) Trust in the seller. (no restro)