CGCEMC - CGC Estimated Market Capitalization - now over 325 comics listed 3 3

[valiantman]

HOW TO (MAYBE) USE CGCEMC IN YOUR COLLECTION (PART TWO):

Most collectors have a "feel" for books they believe are similar, even if the prices aren't the same.  Action #1, Detective #27, and Amazing Fantasy #15 are three books people group together, despite AF #15 being much cheaper (in mid-grades) and having thousands more copies graded overall.

CGCEMC shows all three books near each other at the top of the list.  The numbers match the "feeling".

But what about you?  Do you have a "feel" for other books you believe are similar?  Two lesser-known Golden Age books, perhaps?  A Silver Age minor key vs. a Bronze Age major key?

A favorite character's first appearance versus another favorite character's first appearance no matter how many years apart they are?

You pick any two books and compare their CGCEMC.  Does it match your "feeling" on the subject?

If a book CGCEMC seems too low, and you have been thinking about adding it to your collection, maybe now is the time.

If a book CGCEMC seems too high, and you have been debating which book from a group of choices to sell, maybe now is the time.

 

Thank you for coming to part two of my TED Talk.  As a thank you for attending, CGCEMC.com will be free for the first one hundred billion visitors, no sign-up or credit card required. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by valiantman

[valiantman]

HOW TO (MAYBE) USE CGCEMC IN YOUR IMAGINATION:

If you were a fan of both books, would you rather own all the CGC graded copies of Showcase #4 or all the CGC graded copies of Avengers #4?

Is that a tough call?  CGCEMC can help.  Check out #24 and #25 this week.

 

What if you were offered all the CGC graded copies of Amazing Spider-Man #1 AND Fantastic Four #1 combined... or all the graded copies of Amazing Fantasy #15?

OK, now it's getting interesting (maybe).  CGCEMC can help.  #1 vs. #8 AND #9 combined.

 

It's all a hypothetical game, but it's free to play.  No premium upgrades needed.

 

[Aman619]

On 9/20/2021 at 1:00 PM, valiantman said:

HOW TO (MAYBE) USE CGCEMC IN YOUR COLLECTION:

Collectors can look at this info and ignore it, or use it any way they want, but they may not know where to start.

Here's an example:

Hulk #181 and Cerebus #1 are often debated as the "top book" of the Bronze Age (1970s).

A similar debate occurs for Action Comics #1 and Detective Comics #27 in the Golden Age.

Action Comics #1 and Detective Comics #27 have a very similar CGCEMC calculation.

A similar debate occurs for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 and Amazing Spider-Man #300 in the Copper Age (1980s).

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 and Amazing Spider-Man #300 have a similar CGCEMC calculation.

 

Do Hulk #181 and Cerebus #1 also have a similar CGCEMC calculation?  Actually, they don't.

 

CGCEMC for Hulk #181 is $120M.  CGCEMC for Cerebus #1 is $1.8M.  That's not even close. 

If these books both have strong claim to "top book" of the Bronze Age, how is the CGCEMC so far apart?

Hulk #181 could be too high, Cerebus #1 could be too low, it could be both. 

Cerebus #1 is low print vs. Hulk #181, but TMNT #1 is low print vs. ASM #300 and they are CGCEMC similar.

 

ONE INTERPRETATION of CGCEMC is to ask whether two books that are generally seen/debated as "comparable" by collectors have comparable CGCEMC.

In this case, I'd say Cerebus #1 may not be getting the respect it deserves in the market, unless it should be considered comparable to Marvel Spotlight #32, ASM #100, and Tomb of Dracula #1 (not #10).

Those three books are just above Cerebus #1 on CGCEMC, and Hulk #181 is $118M away.  Does Cerebus #1 deserve better? 

If the market agrees, expect Cerebus #1 to move up in the actual market, relative to the CGCEMC books nearby, and that market movement will be reflected in future CGCEMC calculations.

 

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

outside of any and all other computational issues related to the AMC and EMC or MMC of TNMT 1 and Cerebus 1 is that while they both have tiny printruns of 2000 and 3000, Cerebus 1s print run was lousy, resulting in very few high grade copies -- roughly just a few more that reached newsstands in addition to the dozen copies Sim pulled when they books arrived from the printer.  Whereas TNMT somehow has 100s of high grade slabbed copies (I looked it up recently and I was astounded)  PLUS, of course the handful of 9.4 Cerebus 1s will sell for maybe 20-30K, but ALLl of the copies of TNMT 9.2 and above sell for that much and a crazy lot more now.

[valiantman]

On 9/20/2021 at 2:14 PM, Aman619 said:

outside of any and all other computational issues related to the AMC and EMC or MMC of TNMT 1 and Cerebus 1 is that while they both have tiny printruns of 2000 and 3000, Cerebus 1s print run was lousy, resulting in very few high grade copies -- roughly just a few more that reached newsstands in addition to the dozen copies Sim pulled when they books arrived from the printer.  Whereas TNMT somehow has 100s of high grade slabbed copies (I looked it up recently and I was astounded)  PLUS, of course the handful of 9.4 Cerebus 1s will sell for maybe 20-30K, but ALLl of the copies of TNMT 9.2 and above sell for that much and a crazy lot more now.

If Hulk #181 and Cerebus #1 are truly comparable Bronze Age leaders, and given the lack of high grade Cerebus #1, it would seem that mid-grade Cerebus #1 is extremely undervalued at current market prices, probably in the same way that TMNT #1 was undervalued when 9.0 was $2,000 ten years ago.

Edited September 20, 2021 by valiantman

[Aman619]

yes.  according to the EMC analyss this may be an opportunity.  However common comics knowledge plus popular culture would dissuade any seasoned collector from going with Cerebus at this point.  Its day has passed.  No TV, No toys, No new comics appearances etc etc (and the creator a weird mysogynist and celibate hermit to boot!)  There No comparison today which property has the brighter future.  Its values were based on its scarcity and its comics influence back in the 80s as the poster child for the Creator-owned movement.

I dont say to denigrate Cerebus!  I loved it, issue by issue.  But so much has transpired since then...

[Gatsby77]

On 9/20/2021 at 4:02 PM, Aman619 said:

yes.  according to the EMC analyss this may be an opportunity.  However common comics knowledge plus popular culture would dissuade any seasoned collector from going with Cerebus at this point.  Its day has passed.  No TV, No toys, No new comics appearances etc etc (and the creator a weird mysogynist and celibate hermit to boot!)  There No comparison today which property has the brighter future.  Its values were based on its scarcity and its comics influence back in the 80s as the poster child for the Creator-owned movement.

I dont say to denigrate Cerebus!  I loved it, issue by issue.  But so much has transpired since then...

This.

I hate to say it, as I love Cerebus # 1 (despite Wolverine being my favorite childhood character).

What was true 5 years ago (when I thought Cerebus # 1 was/should be worth more than Hulk 181, grade for grade - while it was actually only true for 8.0+) is not true today.

Ditto - despite their obscurity are not Scooby Doo # 1 ($.35) and Iron Fist # 14 ($.35) both still top 5 Bronze books?

But neither would be safe long-term bets. Scooby-Doo because it's not his first comic series (although the Gold Key # 1 is close to a top-tier Bronze book in its own right), and because the character itself is in decline.

And Sabretooth? Great character, great book - but destined to remain 2nd-3rd tier (a la ASM # 101 - not even rising to TOD # 10 level).

[Bird]

On 9/20/2021 at 4:02 PM, Aman619 said:

yes.  according to the EMC analyss this may be an opportunity.  However common comics knowledge plus popular culture would dissuade any seasoned collector from going with Cerebus at this point.  Its day has passed.  No TV, No toys, No new comics appearances etc etc (and the creator a weird mysogynist and celibate hermit to boot!)  There No comparison today which property has the brighter future.  Its values were based on its scarcity and its comics influence back in the 80s as the poster child for the Creator-owned movement.

I dont say to denigrate Cerebus!  I loved it, issue by issue.  But so much has transpired since then...

I agree wholeheartedly. I would add the phone books being available early on and the counterfeits are factors as well.

Cerebus 1 is an outlier is any way you describe it. Its' importance is almost separate from the actual content of the comic in any and every way possible. And if we are using importance as some sort of measure of value, it is still an outlier I would think. I don't see it being comparable to IH181 or most other books, which we would hope at least act as other books from the same era.

I give Dave Sim a few bucks every month on patreon because I want to thank him for a book that really changed my perspective on comics (very few $, but it is something). But my interest in Cerebus 1 is modest while I have a IH181. The book is important but not so much desired to me. 

 

[Aman619]

what kind of payment to Dave were you referring to?  You buy something? or actually send a check?

 

[Bird]

On 9/20/2021 at 4:57 PM, Aman619 said:

what kind of payment to Dave were you referring to?  You buy something? or actually send a check?

 

it is set up as a recurring charge, I pay through paypal but not sure you have to use that. I just give him a few dollars every month. One year he sent out birthday cards to supporters but that was a perk, not something I paid for

Looks like het gets $568/month from 86 patreons (told you it was only a few dollars).

 

 

[valiantman]

On 9/20/2021 at 3:02 PM, Aman619 said:

yes.  according to the EMC analyss this may be an opportunity.  However common comics knowledge plus popular culture would dissuade any seasoned collector from going with Cerebus at this point.  Its day has passed.  No TV, No toys, No new comics appearances etc etc (and the creator a weird mysogynist and celibate hermit to boot!)  There No comparison today which property has the brighter future.  Its values were based on its scarcity and its comics influence back in the 80s as the poster child for the Creator-owned movement.

I dont say to denigrate Cerebus!  I loved it, issue by issue.  But so much has transpired since then...

 

On 9/20/2021 at 3:38 PM, Bird said:

Cerebus 1 is an outlier is any way you describe it. Its' importance is almost separate from the actual content of the comic in any and every way possible. And if we are using importance as some sort of measure of value, it is still an outlier I would think. I don't see it being comparable to IH181 or most other books, which we would hope at least act as other books from the same era.

Does Cerebus #1 deserve to be "collectively valued" less than Tomb of Dracula #1?

Edited September 20, 2021 by valiantman

[Aman619]

On 9/20/2021 at 5:04 PM, Bird said:

it is set up as a recurring charge, I pay through paypal but not sure you have to use that. I just give him a few dollars every month. One year he sent out birthday cards to supporters but that was a perk, not something I paid for

Looks like het gets $568/month from 86 patreons (told you it was only a few dollars).

 

 

interesting.  This was due to his poor health in the beginning? Every now and again Check out his websites to see how hes doing.  Its all From Hell stuff which hasn't interested me. I reread a series of issues fairy recently... but cant recall is it was The last issues, or Jakas story. Nice to revisit that world.

[Aman619]

On 9/20/2021 at 6:08 PM, valiantman said:

Does Cerebus #1 deserve to be "collectively valued" less than Tomb of Dracula #1?

IMO more than TOD#1  but far less than TNMT #1.  But Cerebus #1 are going for real money now, so its allure isn't dead yet.

[valiantman]

On 9/20/2021 at 5:17 PM, Aman619 said:

On 9/20/2021 at 5:08 PM, valiantman said:

Does Cerebus #1 deserve to be "collectively valued" less than Tomb of Dracula #1?

IMO more than TOD#1  but far less than TNMT #1.  But Cerebus #1 are going for real money now, so its allure isn't dead yet.

Right, but TMNT #1 has a CGCEMC value that's thirteen times higher than Cerebus #1, so it is definitely worth far less than TMNT #1.

Cerebus #1 also has a CGCEMC less than Tomb of Dracula #1, so there does seem to be a lot of room for Cerebus #1 to move up, without coming close to TMNT #1 to meet the expectation that it belongs above TOD #1 and far less than TMNT #1.

The cost of entry, though, at $5,000 for an average copy probably keeps Cerebus #1 off of "want lists" that focus on $2,000 and under keys.

[Albert Thurgood]

Thanks @valiantman for doing all this! It is very interesting to see this sort of analysis - the first time for me, anyway.

Looking at the list of 261 books on CGCEMC.com, it strikes me that there are NO EC titles at all (at least that I could see) and no Conans. A lot of people think EC had the best titles of the '50s and I think the BWS Conan books had some of the best work of the '70s, though they are terribly undervalued these days. So it would be interesting to see how they compare. (FWIW I estimate the CGCEMC of Conan #1 is over $5M)

 

[valiantman]

SOME CGCEMC STATS:

There are 213 comics with a CGCEMC of at least $1,000,000.  The total is $2,976,936,111 for those 730,264 slabs on the CGC census, an average of $4,077 each.

The CGCEMC Top 100 comics total $2,714,201,509 with 416,336 slabs, an average of $6,519 each.

The CGCEMC Top 25 comics total $2,010,249,262 with 118,542 slabs, an average of $16,958 each.

Amazing Spider-Man #300 is in the Top 25. 

Remove ASM #300 and the remaining "Top 24" are $1,986,117,444 for 91,997 slabs, an average of $21,589 each.

67.5% of the $2.98B total for the Top 213 comics is within the Top 25.

Edited September 21, 2021 by valiantman

[valiantman]

On 9/20/2021 at 5:55 PM, Albert Thurgood said:

Thanks @valiantman for doing all this! It is very interesting to see this sort of analysis - the first time for me, anyway.

Looking at the list of 261 books on CGCEMC.com, it strikes me that there are NO EC titles at all (at least that I could see) and no Conans. A lot of people think EC had the best titles of the '50s and I think the BWS Conan books had some of the best work of the '70s, though they are terribly undervalued these days. So it would be interesting to see how they compare. (FWIW I estimate the CGCEMC of Conan #1 is over $5M)

Conan #1 probably got overlooked, thanks for catching that.  I'm sure there are a few others that are obvious, but in my compiling of 200+ comics by hand, I just forgot them. 

Conan #1 (1970), 4,605 CGC slabs, 7.62 average grade, value about $675 each, CGCAMC = $3,108,375, CGCEMC = $4,444,536 

[Albert Thurgood]

On 9/21/2021 at 7:00 AM, valiantman said:

Conan #1 probably got overlooked, thanks for catching that.  I'm sure there are a few others that are obvious, but in my compiling of 200+ comics by hand, I just forgot them. 

Conan #1 (1970), 4,605 CGC slabs, 7.62 average grade, value about $675 each, CGCAMC = $3,108,375, CGCEMC = $4,444,536 

Thanks. My quick calculation was based on median CGC grade and Gocollect figures because I can't access GPA data.

[Albert Thurgood]

On 9/21/2021 at 2:47 AM, valiantman said:

What if you were offered all the CGC graded copies of Amazing Spider-Man #1 AND Fantastic Four #1 combined... or all the graded copies of Amazing Fantasy #15?

OK, now it's getting interesting (maybe).  CGCEMC can help.  #1 vs. #8 AND #9 combined.

A way for people with deep pockets to exploit this is to corner the market on a book that had low numbers of copies but a relatively low CGCEMC. They could probably get most of the copies before the market realised what was going on so the last copies would increase dramatically in price raising the overall EMC. For example, a lazy $4M could get all 43 graded copies of Action Comics 2.

[Bird]

On 9/20/2021 at 7:29 PM, Albert Thurgood said:

A way for people with deep pockets to exploit this is to corner the market on a book that had low numbers of copies but a relatively low CGCEMC. They could probably get most of the copies before the market realised what was going on so the last copies would increase dramatically in price raising the overall EMC. For example, a lazy $4M could get all 43 graded copies of Action Comics 2.

I would say finding and then convincing owners to sell makes this unlikely, but then I remember CAL and IMSM #1!!! 

[Gatsby77]

On 9/20/2021 at 6:08 PM, valiantman said:

 

Does Cerebus #1 deserve to be "collectively valued" less than Tomb of Dracula #1?

No.

I've never owned a Cerebus # 1 (although I considered a mid-grade copy back around 1990 once). 

And I don't own Tomb of Dracula # 1 now, but in the past, I've owned copies in the CGC 6.5, 9.0 & 9.4. It's a phenomenal book.

Putting aside that (as you've said), I'm comfortable paying $2k for a comic but have never paid more than $3k for one:

I'd pick a CGC 9.4 copy of Tomb of Dracula # 1 for $2,000-$2,300 over a CGC 6.5 copy of Cerebus # 1 for $5,000 any day of the week.

Honestly, 9.4 Dracula 1s are 40% the cost of 6.5 Cerebus 1s - it makes sense why it'd be more widely collected despite being leagues more common.

Why Dracula?

1) Bias towards high grade. 9.4s generally appreciate faster than mid-grade, regardless of rarity.

2) This is the first issue of a *major* Marvel bronze title - 10 years, 75 issues - and part of the trio of major gothic horror books (alongside Ghost Rider & Werewolf by Night) - I love all three titles - honestly, they define Marvel Bronze for me more than any of the superhero books.

3) First appearance of Marvel Dracula. Sure - not on the level of Blade (yet), but, like Star Wars 1, still a major book.

4) Quality - arguably one of the best (and most consistent) titles of the 1970s, full stop. Neal Adams cover, and the whole run features arguably Colan's best work. Plus, it's well-written, often-times hilarious. In issue 10, he's kicking it on a cruise ship with a bunch of idiotic Hollywood directors ("effeminate fops") and vapid wannabe starlets whom he can't stand in part because he's decided if he has to kill some folks to live, humanity won't miss these folks.

TL/DR: the whole ToD run is under-rated, and I think once the comic book movie bubble bursts (3 years or less), we'll see a "return to basics" among Silver, Bronze & Copper keys. And ToD # 1 is definitely one of them.