Tom Morgan Punisher 2099 #1 auction result 0

[Timely]

I have many pieces in my collection I’m surprised sells for so little. Perhaps I like those more than most.

Same holds true for any comic title. There are many who grew up on 2099 titles and cherish those titles more than others. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure!

[Bronty]

On 12/22/2021 at 1:55 AM, Xatari said:

I think these are both interesting points. Being new to the hobby, here’s what I’ve observed in regard to the first point. Older collectors largely stopped reading comics and don’t care about new characters. This is why collectors were so taken aback by the Ultimate Fallout 4 cover sale price.
 

However, it is my understanding the sentiment was the same when Fish paid a then outrageous price for the Wolverine page from Hulk 180. Each generation tends to do the same thing and care little about what they view as newer (can also be read as “irrelevant”) characters. This shouldn’t surprise anyone when it happens but still manages to do so. 

In regard to first appearance collecting, sure there is an element of this from the card hobby, but it has been prevalent in comics from the get-go. First appearances were always sought after. Given a high percentage of OA collectors started with comics, I’m shocked that the collector community has by and large been surprised by this approach over the past few years. This seems to be the natural progression and maturation of the hobby. Newer collectors have had this imprinted on their collecting mindset by the previous generations of comic collectors for as long as I can remember.

Reps, Artists, and newer collectors are all embracing this and pricing accordingly. Additionally while feels like a crazy jump in pricing the past two years, let’s keep in mind, most collectibles have seen similar increases across the board. 

Context has always mattered to collectors, and I would expect to see a continued separation of pricing with first appearance art. I don’t think the hobby goes back from here.

Of course there's always been some premium for first appearances, but we are talking degree here.  Its no coincidence that the #1 buyer of first appearance art lately owns a card shop.   Card money just looks at things differently, typically from a superficial POV IMO.    Again, I'm not even calling that a negative because people can collect exactly how they want and its no more or less valid than collecting something because of great art or story or publisher or character.   But they tend (I'm saying "tend", I'm not saying in every instance) to bet heavy, almost over the top, on things they speculate are desirable.   And I do think speculate is the right word there.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Bronty

[Xatari]

I’d argue he may no longer be the #1 first appearance collector as of late, and that title may have passed to someone who has nothing to do with cards and everything to do with the industry. 

I believe it has more to do with the evolution of the hobby. People keep talking about card and crypto money being the catalyst but I really think that’s an urban legend that no one has ever substantiated with factual information. 

I think new collectors saw traditional first appearance art locked behind the vault of black hole collections or prices most couldn’t afford. This led to hunting the next wave of firsts which means collectors had to pick up books again and read for themselves. This is one thing I love about the MCU is that Feige and Co are unearthing characters that have flown under the radar but have the potential to be every bit as relevant to the next generation of fans and collectors. 

[Will_K]

On 12/20/2021 at 6:52 PM, comix4fun said:

https://www.comicartfans.com/gallerypiece.asp?piece=1733396

The link no longer works.  It worked before.  Let's see if the art turns up on CAF.  The comic is nearly 30 years old so even if not a fan favorite, it must have some kind of following.

I've acquired a few first appearances.  I wasn't specifically seeking them out but they fit into my collecting niche.  But I don't really hype them on CAF.  Some of my CAF galleries mention the 1st appearance.  For assorted pages, I mentioned it in the description but not the title.  I guess for a lot of collectors, if you can't get a Number 1 issue, you might as well get a 1st appearance.  Which might be even more desirable.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Will_K

[The Voord]

On 12/22/2021 at 3:25 PM, Bronty said:

Of course there's always been some premium for first appearances, but we are talking degree here.  Its no coincidence that the #1 buyer of first appearance art lately owns a card shop.   Card money just looks at things differently, typically from a superficial POV IMO.    Again, I'm not even calling that a negative because people can collect exactly how they want and its no more or less valid than collecting something because of great art or story or publisher or character.   But they tend (I'm saying "tend", I'm not saying in every instance) to bet heavy, almost over the top, on things they speculate are desirable.   And I do think speculate is the right word there.

It could also be argued, as in the case of a newbie collector who just lost his virginity to Albert Moy on another thread . . . better to ejaculate than speculate

[comix4fun]

On 12/22/2021 at 2:39 PM, Will_K said:

The link no longer works.  It worked before.  Let's see if the art turns up on CAF.  The comic is nearly 30 years old so even if not a fan favorite, it must have some kind of following.

I've acquired a few first appearances.  I wasn't specifically seeking them out but they fit into my collecting niche.  But I don't really hype them on CAF.  Some of my CAF galleries mention the 1st appearance.  For assorted pages, I mentioned it in the description but not the title.  I guess for a lot of collectors, if you can't get a Number 1 issue, you might as well get a 1st appearance.  Which might be even more desirable.

[The Voord]

On 12/23/2021 at 1:34 AM, comix4fun said:

1970s Glam Rock is still fashionable in 2099, who'd a thowt it?

He needs a (2099-style ) Marvel Super-hero team-up with 70s Subby . . . singing, "We will, we will rock you!" (Queen).

Edited December 23, 2021 by The Voord

[rsonenthal]

I don't know that I think a pivot to trying to create value by pushing almost first appearances (a page from the same book) of just about any character as being important is a "maturing of the hobby."

[Xatari]

I don’t personally collect pages from first appearances issues unless the said character is on the page. However, I do understand the rationale coming from recovering Comic collectors.

Since this thread started with Punisher, let’s use that as an example with ASM 129. A 9.8 copy on that book recently sold for $43,200. There are 153 unrestored copies in 9.8 on the CGC census. Conversely there are 19 pages of artwork for this issue, some of which have Punisher, but many do not.

I don’t have a horse in either race, but I would personally rather have an original page from the issue even if Punisher was MIA and  would value any page from that issue are least as high as a 9.8 copy if not higher, especially given there are 8x more 9.8 copies than original pages. 

Again, not the way I personally collect, but I get the rationale. 

[comix4fun]

On 12/22/2021 at 8:49 PM, Xatari said:

I don’t personally collect pages from first appearances issues unless the said character is on the page. However, I do understand the rationale coming from recovering Comic collectors.

Since this thread started with Punisher, let’s use that as an example with ASM 129. A 9.8 copy on that book recently sold for $43,200. There are 153 unrestored copies in 9.8 on the CGC census. Conversely there are 19 pages of artwork for this issue, some of which have Punisher, but many do not.

I don’t have a horse in either race, but I would personally rather have an original page from the issue even if Punisher was MIA and  would value any page from that issue are least as high as a 9.8 copy if not higher, especially given there are 8x more 9.8 copies than original pages. 

Again, not the way I personally collect, but I get the rationale. 

Frankly, 

If anyone is using that as rationale to gauge value and desirability of the artwork they are pursuing I don't understand it at all. 

I mean, you've REALLY got to be into talking yourself into a piece of art to check census data on a tangentially related but distinctly separate market such as the two you're comparing and then deciding that the single thing that makes the comics desirable (being the first appearance) would make someone want to spend the same money as an "investment grade" (ugh, I threw up in my mouth a little using that term) copy of the comic that is a more liquid commodity with an established market and a wide potential buyer base with a page from a book without any trace of the character that made the comic itself desirable in the first place. 

Perhaps the calculus works for some comics and some pages but I would wager it falls more on the coincidence side of the ledger than on the causation side of the ledger. And the higher the values go the less chance of carrying a causal relationship. There are multiple other metrics established through decades of examination of art and collectible markets that I would personally trust more than comparing OA pages to a parallel but non-correlative markets such as slabbed comics.

Basically, someone who talks themselves into spending $45k on an ASM 129 page without the Punisher on the page because that's what high grade copies of comics go for and not based on what comparable pages of that artist's work on that title or on that particular issue go for, has an impressive power of persuasion..ultimately it seems...to their own detriment. 

[Xatari]

Reminds me of how people viewed Billy Beane. Just because we don’t understand it, doesn’t mean there isn’t something there. 

[rsonenthal]

Trying to equate comic prices to a page of original art reminds me more of PT Barnum than Billy Beane.

As it was said above, not the way I personally collect.

[jsylvester]

On 12/21/2021 at 4:57 PM, Race said:

Hal, rather than explain what I know, I'd rather explain what it going to happen over the next year. If it is true, well, then you might consider I could be right about how this ends in 2023. By this time next year, we should see:

6,000 on the S&P

Bitcoin at $125,000, and

an inflation rate of 22%.

Just bookmark this and see how it goes.

Bitcoin will be squashed if the S&P hits 6000. Bitcoin is a risky asset and investors will sell. Even gold tanks during recessions. I personally don’t think the market will tank that far. I’m more concerned with the amount of paper Wall Street created with Bitcoin funds. Get ready for a huge short on Bitcoin when our government issues a US crypto dollar.. They did it with gold so why not Bitcoin too. A crypto dollar will be the only way the Fed and our government will take control of high inflation. 

[jsylvester]

 

On 12/22/2021 at 9:49 PM, Xatari said:

I don’t personally collect pages from first appearances issues unless the said character is on the page. However, I do understand the rationale coming from recovering Comic collectors.

Since this thread started with Punisher, let’s use that as an example with ASM 129. A 9.8 copy on that book recently sold for $43,200. There are 153 unrestored copies in 9.8 on the CGC census. Conversely there are 19 pages of artwork for this issue, some of which have Punisher, but many do not.

I don’t have a horse in either race, but I would personally rather have an original page from the issue even if Punisher was MIA and  would value any page from that issue are least as high as a 9.8 copy if not higher, especially given there are 8x more 9.8 copies than original pages. 

Again, not the way I personally collect, but I get the rationale. 

Never known collectors to buy for first appearance alone. Most collectors buy  for a combination of nostalgia, art, and historical significance. I can understand buying a first appearance if it happens during a story you grew up reading or if it’s a major character like Superman, Batman, etc. I just don’t understand the small character first appearance thing. But maybe the new comic book guys create a market for first appearances. I certainly focus on nostalgic storylines from my childhood others might not like so who knows. I do know comic book prices have nothing to do with OA as the books of the stuff I collect aren’t worth much due to huge print runs. I’ve never heard of a OA collector reference comic book prices or grades before but maybe enough new comic book collectors enter the market with that mindset to where there’s a new niche there too.

Edited December 23, 2021 by jsylvester

[comix4fun]

On 12/22/2021 at 10:31 PM, Xatari said:

Reminds me of how people viewed Billy Beane. Just because we don’t understand it, doesn’t mean there isn’t something there. 

Billy Beane fired all the scouts that made judgments based on data criteria outside of those directly correlative to winning. 

Conversely, he'd probably lose his mind if someone were to look back on the Oakland A's team from 2002 and decide that the reason they won 20 straight was because all their starting pitchers had two-syllable last names. For every set of data a statistical analysis exists that leads to oblivion and not enlightenment. 

 

[Xatari]

How about a different analogy. When I was hoarding newsstand versions of comic character firsts appearances, people thought that was rather ridiculous criteria by which to differentiate. Why could someone possibly care about a bar code vs a picture on a corner box? A few years ago the market decided it mattered. It was a radical shift in an established hobby. 

What I’m saying is while I don’t collect something like first appearances book pages without a character, I can at least understand someone’s rationale for doing so. NFTs are the most recent example. I don’t have any desire myself to jump into that hobby space full steam, but I can appreciate someone else sees something there I don’t. Just because I don’t, doesn’t make it good, bad, superior, or inferior.

Someone saw value in Punisher 2099. It’s not for me but I can be open to the buyer seeing something I don’t and be excited for them regardless. 

[vodou]

On 12/22/2021 at 9:19 PM, rsonenthal said:

I don't know that I think a pivot to trying to create value by pushing almost first appearances (a page from the same book) of just about any character as being important is a "maturing of the hobby."

The end of creativity and innovation is often marked by rather obvious financialization.

I'd argue that was what happened when many of these comics were published and again as we near the end (gah!) of the All Things Bull Market.

[Bronty]

On 12/22/2021 at 11:12 PM, comix4fun said:

Frankly, 

If anyone is using that as rationale to gauge value and desirability of the artwork they are pursuing I don't understand it at all. 

I mean, you've REALLY got to be into talking yourself into a piece of art to check census data on a tangentially related but distinctly separate market such as the two you're comparing and then deciding that the single thing that makes the comics desirable (being the first appearance) would make someone want to spend the same money as an "investment grade" (ugh, I threw up in my mouth a little using that term) copy of the comic that is a more liquid commodity with an established market and a wide potential buyer base with a page from a book without any trace of the character that made the comic itself desirable in the first place. 

Perhaps the calculus works for some comics and some pages but I would wager it falls more on the coincidence side of the ledger than on the causation side of the ledger. And the higher the values go the less chance of carrying a causal relationship. There are multiple other metrics established through decades of examination of art and collectible markets that I would personally trust more than comparing OA pages to a parallel but non-correlative markets such as slabbed comics.

Basically, someone who talks themselves into spending $45k on an ASM 129 page without the Punisher on the page because that's what high grade copies of comics go for and not based on what comparable pages of that artist's work on that title or on that particular issue go for, has an impressive power of persuasion..ultimately it seems...to their own detriment. 

Its just different values.

Boils down to...

who's the artist?   Don't care

what do comparable non first app issue pages go for?   Don't care

Page from the character's first appearance?   Check, therefore pay anything to get it.

 

In some ways I understand it.   You can argue about subjective things like great art and great story.   FIrst appearance books are what they are, there's no argument.   Its an objective fact.     I don't care for valuing that one aspect above all else myself however.

Look, in many ways, the comic market itself is like this.      First appearance?  $$$  Anything else?  Dollar box.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Bronty

[comix4fun]

On 12/23/2021 at 8:50 AM, Bronty said:

Its just different values.

Boils down to...

who's the artist?   Don't care

what do comparable non first app issue pages go for?   Don't care

Page from the character's first appearance?   Check, therefore pay anything to get it.

 

In some ways I understand it.   You can argue about subjective things like great art and great story.   FIrst appearance books are what they are, there's no argument.   Its an objective fact.     I don't care for valuing that one aspect above all else myself however.

Look, in many ways, the comic market itself is like this.      First appearance?  $$$  Anything else?  Dollar box.

To be clear I objected to the take that a page from a first appearance book with no trace of the character who appeared in that book for the first time (making it worth so much money) should easily be worth as much as a top graded book (in this case ASM #129 at $43k for a 9.8). I have no problem with first appearance covers or pages being worth more regardless of artist or aesthetics....because you and I both know THAT'S ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE. I've bought more than a few first appearance pages and the premium for those pages above other pages from other books without first appearances has always been multiple and that's going back more than 25 years at this point. But the character is always on the page. Without that character the page is "meh" on the "first appearance price range scale". 

Like any other take on whether something is worth it, or analysis of sales data to discern the "why did it sell for X?",  there's a healthy (unhealthy?) amount of marketing or "pump" that has to occur to gain wide enough acceptance of the theory or idea for it to take hold and either be proven accurate or become a self-fulfilling prophecy which is the child of its own marketing campaign. 

People have been convincing themselves (often with some help) for as long as they've been collecting things that the price they are paying is "worth it". It's a psychological self-comfort mechanism that prevents people from panicking that they paid $1,000 for a figural bank that cost $1 when it was original sold or pretty much any 12cent comic that's any price above 12 cents, and on and on. 

In some ways I respect the cry of "nostalgia" more than a stats breakdown across differing hobbies with their own markets and own drivers....because "nostalgia" simply means this was their childhood, they don't care if it's expensive, they acknowledge there's no inherent value, no utility beyond emotional, and it's just worth it to them personally. It's honest, it's transparent, it's not couched in any pseudo-analytics to salve the wounds of pyrrhic auction wins with a spreadsheet or powerpoint and it's not meant to convince anyone else of an untapped market that's sitting there waiting to be mined. 

[Xatari]

On 12/23/2021 at 7:13 AM, comix4fun said:

In some ways I respect the cry of "nostalgia" more than a stats breakdown across differing hobbies with their own markets and own drivers....because "nostalgia" simply means this was their childhood, they don't care if it's expensive, they acknowledge there's no inherent value, no utility beyond emotional, and it's just worth it to them personally. It's honest, it's transparent, it's not couched in any pseudo-analytics to salve the wounds of pyrrhic auction wins with a spreadsheet or powerpoint and it's not meant to convince anyone else of an untapped market that's sitting there waiting to be mined. 

I can appreciate this. I think this perhaps is the other end of the pendulum from the example mentioned above. This also isn’t exactly my methodology in collecting but I can get behind the rationale. Personally I think I likely fall somewhere in the middle.

I don’t personally collect by artist but certainly love when the stars align and a nostalgic artist for me created the piece (ie Jim Cheung with Young Avengers, Jae Lee with Inhumans, and Adrian Alphona with Ms Marvel). 

My thought process with any new addition is a follows: “Do I like the character(s)? Do I like the way the character is represented on the page? Does the piece have contextual importance to that character?”

I’m a “Character and Context” collector, and my pieces facilitate a connection with the character for me more than the artist, though both occur.

All that said, because of the amount of money needed to play ball in this hobby, as others have noted, it would be fiscally irresponsible for me personally to not take into account an exit strategy in case of emergency. One could argue a hobby is a venture based on frivolous or extraneous spending, but I have approached any hobby with which I’ve engaged with a mindset of being able to recoup a reasonable amount of outlay back. My tastes and excitement for something  may change over time so I simply like to retain flexibility.