Speculation and the Real Estate Market Bubble

[Silver Surfer]

if u don't like this thread, then don't contribute. it's not as though you've contributed to anything other than:

 

1. vancouver is better than all other cities

 

2. made specific remarks commenting on others (me)

 

if you'd like to contribute to the thread in a positive manner, then why don't u address some of the issues i brought up against your arguments in my replies rather than just label me as having some problem.

 

Ok now your a complete f-ing insufficiently_thoughtful_person. I was trying to be cival and let this go but you seem to want to cry about this so fine. I don't contribute to any other threads? You have only 800 posts you person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Where did I say that Vancouver is better than all other cities. Actually don't even bother respodning to that because I through screwing around on this debate with a guy who obviously has some serious self esteem issues. The only guy that continues to be negative is you so just go let a big cry out and move along.

 

Look dip [embarrassing lack of self control] don't even bother addressing any posts to me now or in the future because you can't even get your facts straight.

[the blob]

VERY interesting article in the New York Times this past weekend about Trump. We all know he inflates his net worth, but the article cites some anonymous sources as estimating he's really only worth $250-$400 million or so, not $5+ billion like he claims or $2+ billion like Forbes is willing to state. A lot of things he infers he owns he does not own at all, just manages and gets a piece of the profits.

 

The funny part about that number is that The Donald's father was worth about $400 million in the early 80s. So, basically, if the estimates are correct, The Donald has not done SQUAT in the last 20+ years when real estate values have gone up like 1500%+++++. Well, I guess he's slept with a lot of gorgeous women and had a good time, which is worth a few million right there, but seriously, that guy is such a frigging hype machine. Him giving a real estate seminar is absurd. Here's the key: inherit a hundred million bucks.

[Norrin_Radd]

VERY interesting article in the New York Times this past weekend about Trump. We all know he inflates his net worth, but the article cites some anonymous sources as estimating he's really only worth $250-$400 million or so, not $5+ billion like he claims or $2+ billion like Forbes is willing to state. A lot of things he infers he owns he does not own at all, just manages and gets a piece of the profits.

 

He's been doing that for 20 years. Have you ever noticed that the investors and bondholders in his casino projects usually don't fair so well? But "The Donald" always makes sure he gets paid. He's basically a bullsh*t artist and a promoter. He was an interesting character once, but the glamour has since faded.

[the blob]

I figured given that he bought a lot of these properties on the cheap that he might actually be worth something now, but he doesn't own a lot of them. He values one asset at $1.3 billion that he doesn't even own!! He manages it and gets 30% of the profits.

[Timulty]

He could be using an estimate such as he pulls in 50 mill /year from that property and expects to pull in 1.5 billion in the next 30

[the blob]

yeah, then you value it at its present value discounted for inflation over the next 30 years, not total value. that would be the way to do it, but, honestly, i'm pretty sure he's just taking credit for what the buildings are worth right now (and inflating a bit).

[shadroch]

I have not read that article,so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here,but;

Donald did not inherit the bulk of his fathers estate. Whatever the father was worth is realy not an issue.Let us also remember he lost quite a bit in his first divorce,nd a bit in his second divorce.

According to his speech yesterday,he had a net worth of negative 900 million in the early nineties,and is now a multi-billionaire.I guess he was referencing the article you mention when he dared anyone present to show proof he wasn't a billionaire.

I'm also not aware of a single bond-holder on any of Trumps projects not getting exactly what they were contracted to get.Stockholders,thats another story,but why would any smart investor buy stocks in a casino run by non-casino marketeers?They should use a little more due dilegence that name recognition.I know anyone that has bought an apartment or house in any of his co-op,condo,or golf projects has done quite well.

His name is on a great deal of property that he doesn't aucually own,but so what? If he is leasing it or even if he simply has a management contract to have his organization run the property,again, so what?

 

As far as his glamour fading,how then do you explain the thousands of people who shelled out a couple hundred dollars in NYC to hear him speak,his top rated tv show or the buzz his very name creates?

[Aman619]

Trump was never worth a tenth of what he claimed. And since his "comeback" he has claimed to OWN every property to which he merely sold his name to. What was interesting in the NYT article was how loosely the Forbes lists is put together. They dont do research. The prospective egoists just send them their own figures. Perfect for a media whore like the Donald who saw thru it early and kept upping his fictitious totals!

 

btw, Ivana got a nice pile, but she is in no way responsible for his current low (?) net worth. Her divorce was written right at his lowest point.

[the blob]

"I have not read that article,so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here,but;

Donald did not inherit the bulk of his fathers estate."

 

I believe it was split 3 ways and the legend is that when Fred was still alive he gave The Donald $50-$100 million to play around with in the late 70s, maybe early 80s. If he has only turned $50-$150 million into $400 million in 20+ years in the NY real estate game that is pathetic. You could have bought an apartment for $100K in the early 80s that sells for over $1 million (easy) now. Shnooks made 1000% on their RE investments.

 

When Trump gives the impression that he owns the properties that he is merely managing, yeah, I have a problem.

 

And yes, bondholders/creditors got raped when he almost went belly up in the early 90s and he was in a position to borrow so much money because he fibbed about his net worth before he was worth negative $900 million.

 

Ivanna got not so much. Her cash portion of the settlement came out of money the banks had lent him when he was on the brink of bankruptcy that was intended to shore up some of his financial woes. Remember, they got divorced when the Donald had a negative net worth, so her 50% was of nothing. I believe she got The Plaza hotel (which I'm pretty sure she eventually sold), but I think it was loaded up with debt, so how much she actually got is anybody's guess. Marla signed a terrible pre-nup and has not gotten all that much money.

 

He's a big phoney and there are probably 10-20 other real estate developers in NYC who seek 1% of the attention who are worth bundles more than him.

[the blob]

Ivanna got $10 million and "modest" maintenance (like $300K a month, something like that). they lay it out in the article.

[Norrin_Radd]

What was interesting in the NYT article was how loosely the Forbes lists is put together. They dont do research. The prospective egoists just send them their own figures. Perfect for a media whore like the Donald who saw thru it early and kept upping his fictitious totals!

 

Really. I find that hard to believe. Forbes has always claimed that they do their own rigorous research and do NOT base their estimate on what people send in.

 

[i've used to read every Forbes 400 going back to the first one in 1982.]

[Norrin_Radd]

Remember back in the early 90's when that reporter called "The Donald" out and mentioned some embarrasing facts about his company(s) financial condition. And then "The Donald" got the reporter fired and ruined his life.

 

Yeah, that was glamorous.

 

Once I read that story and the fact that the reporter was right about Trumps' finances, I lost most of the respect I had for him.

 

 

And I do believe the bondholders in his Atlantic City casinos did take losses in the early 90's. I don't have the facts offhand, but if "The Donald" lost everything and then some, do you really think he was able to keep up his debt service payments?

[Silver Surfer]

Very interestig stuff on the Donald. Personally I think he is worth $2B. Does anyone know if he actually owns that $100M property that he is developing on Palm Beach. This is a perfect example of his hype because I seriously doubt he is pumping any where near the $100M he is claiming it will be worth when it is finished. Will be interesting to see if it sells (or has he already?) or if he keeps it (I doubt that very much).

 

Trump is no dummy, he probably leverages everything to the max and the pressure on banking executives to do his bidding must be tremendous. We saw that in Canada in the 80's and 90's with the Reichman's and the Canary Wharf development in London. The lead banker really didn't have a clue what the Reichman's were worth when they wrote those deals.

[Aman619]

Very interestig stuff on the Donald. Personally I think he is worth $2B. Does anyone know if he actually owns that $100M property that he is developing on Palm Beach. This is a perfect example of his hype because I seriously doubt he is pumping any where near the $100M he is claiming it will be worth when it is finished. Will be interesting to see if it sells (or has he already?) or if he keeps it (I doubt that very much).

 

Trump is no dummy, he probably leverages everything to the max and the pressure on banking executives to do his bidding must be tremendous. We saw that in Canada in the 80's and 90's with the Reichman's and the Canary Wharf development in London. The lead banker really didn't have a clue what the Reichman's were worth when they wrote those deals.

 

I drove by that property. Its about 45 minutes north of Miami, south of Aventura. On the development sign its says Trump/Dezer and other names. Dezer is another NYC real estate family that owns or manages many loft buildings. As the NYT says, Trump gets a fee for the use of his name, which does help sell the apartments. The best example of this perhaps is the new apt buildings on Riverside Drive in NYC. They went up one after the other, all with big Trump golden letters... and he doesnt own any of them. Whats interesting is that in the beginning each apt had spectacular River, N and S views. But with each subsequent bldg put up, the previous buyers views were blocked by the new ones. Finally, only the West / river views remain. All the rest look into their neighbors apts about 70 feet away. I dont get the feeling that the buyers ever really knew just how many bldgs were going up in total.

[UnrulyAppendage]

Donald lost me when he thought the Imminent Domain ruling was good.

[Silver Surfer]

Does Trump even own those golf courses like the one he was developing in California or are they just more fronts for his wealth? Does Forbes give a breakdown of where is wealth is situated? I suspect his remaining interest in his casino is very small, the bank's and creditors probably own owe the bulk of it.

[14 of spades]

Ok now your a complete f-ing insufficiently_thoughtful_person. I was trying to be cival and let this go but you seem to want to cry about this so fine. I don't contribute to any other threads? You have only 800 posts you person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Where did I say that Vancouver is better than all other cities. Actually don't even bother respodning to that because I through screwing around on this debate with a guy who obviously has some serious self esteem issues. The only guy that continues to be negative is you so just go let a big cry out and move along.

 

Look dip [embarrassing lack of self control] don't even bother addressing any posts to me now or in the future because you can't even get your facts straight.

 

fact : if you list Vancouver finishes on the top (or top 3) city in the world, by whatever source, you are suggesting a very specific point. if not, why did u mention it?

 

read my posts here. they were reasonable - i made cases with support. all u did was made generalized statements (you say Toronto, Edmonton doesn't compare - but exactly how?). not everyone will agree with the statements you made - all i did was challenget your claims. what's wrong with that? all that Vancouver acid-rain seeping into your head?

 

anyways - Vancouver is a small place. you somehow related to Vancouver's most famous resident, Robert Pickton?

[14 of spades]

You have only 800 posts you person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point.

 

i'm a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point because i "only" have 800 posts.

 

fine. but i am obviously un-retarded enough to start a thread that you found worthy of your time to contribute to on several occasions.

 

or is it you're just trying to increase your post-count so that you can develop some sense of superiority?

 

no expletives come out of my mouth. who's the one who has gotten "ruffled up"?

[Silver Surfer]

Now I have to explain to a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point why he is a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Buddy you have some serious issues, and judging by your posts you need to get some help. Nice reference to Pickton, just another example of what an insufficiently_thoughtful_person you are. STFU.

[14 of spades]

Now I have to explain to a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point why he is a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Buddy you have some serious issues, and judging by your posts you need to get some help. Nice reference to Pickton, just another example of what an insufficiently_thoughtful_person you are. STFU.

 

i'm actually perfectly fine - i've begun to see the humor in all of this.

 

why don't u STFU? too arrogant not to?