I stepped away from the comic market a year ago. What happened? 7 7

[djpinkpanther67]

On 2/13/2022 at 9:09 AM, joeypost said:

Buy when you’re high, sell when you’re  high. 

FTFY 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 2/14/2022 at 1:27 AM, Westy Steve said:

Interesting that you use that book as an example. I just bought the best one I could afford at the moment, which is a 6.5.  Why did I buy it? Read on.  

In my humble opinion, the market has really stratified. I know you guys say that dollar bin books are expensive, but realistically it’s only some movie tie in books that get hot in those bins that get hot. And books get hot fast because of FOMO and because the good stuff is so expensive. 

I’ve come to terms with the fact that $500 is the new $200.   I tend to collect more “important” books and my old threshold of $200 doesn’t buy a very important book unless I want low grade. So based on that analysis, I feel that X-Men 94 is a good purchase relative to other stuff out there.  I’ve started looking at prices per grade point and it’s taught me that books like X-Men 94 at $160 to $175 per point seem cheap relative to their relevance. Many of us remember when GSX1 (now at $700 per point) and an X94 cost the same. It seems the X 94 is about equally as painful to purchase as it was when I was a single guy just out of college with a good job. But GSX1 is ridiculous. 

Earlier appearances, once coveted by collectors, are taking a huge backseat to first appearances. And the MCU is driving the bus with such an iron grip that collected books are being forgotten. If you want to collect the “new X-Men“, you’re going to need an X-Men 94 which will cost you about $160 per point mid grade.  Figure out what a werewolf by night 32 will cost you per point   (more than twice as much!) if you want to collect those early appearances. Movie madness! X94 is the relative bargain. 
 

"Price per point" has never made any sense to me, and it makes even less sense now than it ever did.  Maybe somebody can show me a linear pattern among low-grade books (2.0 - 5.0) but there is nothing at all linear about the price gaps between books graded 8.0 and above, much less 9.4 and above.

[Upgrayedd2]

On 2/13/2022 at 6:28 AM, Gaard said:

I've been coming here for about 8 years. People have been warning about a coming bust since day one.

I lived through the fall of Valiant comics.

[SilverRich1]

On 2/13/2022 at 1:03 PM, JollyComics said:

That is VERY GOOD question.  

I will do my best to grab some potential books and be willing to spend some expensive books in next few years before my parents are in 80's and won't be around any longer.  

Last October, my young sister was unexpectedly passed away. My family thought that she would be around after my parents will be gone. My sister was the best accountant manager and I am ok with number but I am a quick learner.  My parents already decided to show their "bible" trust books to me. I am the first person in my family to see it.  My little brother has Schizophrenia for 30 years and is not doing well lately. I looked up in the Internet about the life expectancy for the people with the mental illness. Most of them live until 50 something and very few made to early 60's. He is now 52.  If he is still alive, he will get only 20% inheritance but I will be his guardian to manage his money for the rest of his life. He is a harmless hermit. 

Wished my sister was alive today but it will be a long term assignment for me to understand how to manage the big portfolio with several lawyers, finance managers and bank managers. Maybe I WOULD able to afford some mega key books. I have about 5-7 more years to pay off my current mortgage. My parents paid off the mortgage fifteen years ago. I may retire after my parents' passings and may convert my two pensions to Roth IRAs until I turn 67 without pay taxes.  

Mine, my sister and my parents already established the college funds for my two kids who are currently in the high school.

That is ten years from now.  I may continue building up the comic book collection that will be inherited to my kids.  They LOVE manga books and Japanese stuffs.  Who knows?

Good luck and I hope everything works out for you, but your post reminds me of an old Proverb, and I paraphrase...

'Announcing your plans is a good way to hear God laugh'

[blazingbob]

On 2/14/2022 at 1:18 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

"Price per point" has never made any sense to me, and it makes even less sense now than it ever did.  Maybe somebody can show me a linear pattern among low-grade books (2.0 - 5.0) but there is nothing at all linear about the price gaps between books graded 8.0 and above, much less 9.4 and above.

PPP is what I do when I go to the bathroom and flush the stat down the toilet.

 

[lou_fine]

On 2/14/2022 at 10:18 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Maybe somebody can show me a linear pattern among low-grade books (2.0 - 5.0) but there is nothing at all linear about the price gaps between books graded 8.0 and above, much less 9.4 and above.

Clearly you do not know much about the "price per point" concept since it really only applies for books in the general grade range of CGC 2.0 through to CGC 6.0.  

Especially since entry level copies (i.e. < CGC 2.0 grade) and uber HG copies both do not fall under the PPP concept since they are subject to huge swings in price volatility.  

The PPP concept most likely also applies to vintage collectible comic books and not so much to hot off the printing press MA books because we know they are all worth pretty much diddly squat in anything below CGC 9.8. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by lou_fine

[Westy Steve]

On 2/14/2022 at 1:18 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

"Price per point" has never made any sense to me, and it makes even less sense now than it ever did.  Maybe somebody can show me a linear pattern among low-grade books (2.0 - 5.0) but there is nothing at all linear about the price gaps between books graded 8.0 and above, much less 9.4 and above.

That’s where I look…the lower part of the curve. Our habit of only considering the last sale skews things too much on the other end of the curve to be very useful other than rough estimates.  If two books have the same price in 9.4, it could be because one had a terrible auction turnout or the item seldom comes to market so there was pent up demand, or perhaps it’s just outdated data.   I expect to see a better reflection of demand on the lower end of the market, except in cases where high grade books are plentiful. 
 

Will WWBN32 almost permanently be worth about 2.5 times as much as X94 in low grade? IMHO, something is wrong there. Price per point makes it more apparent. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Westy Steve

[zosocane]

On 2/14/2022 at 1:18 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

"Price per point" has never made any sense to me, and it makes even less sense now than it ever did.  Maybe somebody can show me a linear pattern among low-grade books (2.0 - 5.0) but there is nothing at all linear about the price gaps between books graded 8.0 and above, much less 9.4 and above.

PPP to me is just a quick reference of where a particular book is exhibiting pricing that runs parallel with the grading point, esp in the 1.0 to 5.0 range.  It can quickly become stale/inapplicable depending on the book.  That said for a lot of DC SA keys, PPP is still handy dandy.

[FoggyNelson]

Since op has been gone comics turned to gold🏆🏆

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 2/14/2022 at 5:36 PM, zosocane said:

PPP to me is just a quick reference of where a particular book is exhibiting pricing that runs parallel with the grading point, esp in the 1.0 to 5.0 range.  It can quickly become stale/inapplicable depending on the book.  That said for a lot of DC SA keys, PPP is still handy dandy.

Thanks.  I have always understood that to be the case but I guess I'm not used to hearing too much discussion of those kinds of grades for a book from 1975.

[Rob]

On 2/13/2022 at 11:27 PM, Westy Steve said:

Interesting that you use that book as an example. I just bought the best one I could afford at the moment, which is a 6.5. 

Well let's analyze that book as an example of my point (hope I don't ruin your recent purchase ). From 2002-2019, it increased in price from $150 to $295.  Pretty steady over 17 years.  Then from March-June of last year, peaked at $1500-$1800.  I refuse to accept that as the new norm.  It seems 6.5's have cooled off a bit, ending Oct at $766 avg (and back up to $962-$1000 more recently).  But I see the long term view of the price chart leveling back off over time, and wouldn't be surprised to see it land around $600-$700 and back to its normal trajectory.  I predict that in the next few years, we'll look at the GPA price charts and see the 2021-2022 blips, not as a new norm, but as a pandemic bubble that passed.  (At least that's the hope I convince myself of, so I can acquire books I can't afford today.) 

[rexinnih]

Well, the first rule of The Last 12 Months of Comics Club is you .......

Actually, what's been said here. Prices have gone up. Lots of speculation. More Marvel movies/TV shows on the horizon to keep driving. 

[Westy Steve]

On 2/14/2022 at 7:16 PM, Rob said:

Well let's analyze that book as an example of my point (hope I don't ruin your recent purchase ). From 2002-2019, it increased in price from $150 to $295.  Pretty steady over 17 years.  Then from March-June of last year, peaked at $1500-$1800.  I refuse to accept that as the new norm.  It seems 6.5's have cooled off a bit, ending Oct at $766 avg (and back up to $962-$1000 more recently).  But I see the long term view of the price chart leveling back off over time, and wouldn't be surprised to see it land around $600-$700 and back to its normal trajectory.  I predict that in the next few years, we'll look at the GPA price charts and see the 2021-2022 blips, not as a new norm, but as a pandemic bubble that passed.  (At least that's the hope I convince myself of, so I can acquire books I can't afford today.) 

Here’s a snapshot from go collect. Prices started going haywire at the beginning of Covid, and I know they did because unfortunately I sold a 6.5 at that time for right around $400.  Go collect shows the price at that time at $409. So between then and now prices have doubled  plus a little bit.

However, recognize that since that time, most of my rental properties increased by 50%, lumber prices have gone way up, food prices have gone way up, etc. I’m not saying that I disagree with you that my book can backslide, but once Covid started a lot of “free money” began to circulate around the economy, causing inflation that may not slow quickly. We can’t blame these prices entirely on the MCU, because I’ve seen similar price increases in other kinds of things that I collect. The question is whether these prices will be consistent/permanent.
 

Your crystal ball is as good as mine, and I am hopeful that some of this it is temporary but I do remember the cost of candy bars increasing in the 1970s and they never came back down after inflation was tamed. Hard to put the genie in the bottle. There’s also a wise old saying that once a democracy learns to vote for its own benefits/money, the handouts will never end and will be the ruin of the economy. (Or something like that). Further, when the government owes a bunch of money the easiest way to pay it back is to halve the pain of repayment by halving the value of the debt.  Inflation may be around a while until our debt shrinks relative to the GDP. 
 

So where does that leave us? I’m not sure. I saw baseball cards collapse. But I don’t think that will happen to comics in the same way because we are more entrenched.  So many of us talk about our plans to pass on our books to our heirs because we plan to die with them. I saw this with coin collecting too. Terrible demographics in coin collecting, but it keeps chugging along. Want to feel young again? Go to a coin convention.
 

I bought my X-Men 94 because it was a relative bargain and to replace the one I sold.  If it backslides farther I’m good with that because I can upgrade.

The success of the comic book market hinges on inflation moving forward and potentially the people’s acceptance of comics as an alternative investment, which the younger generation may readily accept.  Traditionally comics have moved up nicely. If it was a stock, I wouldn’t have the courage to short it.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Westy Steve

[alexgross.com]

nothing happened, but heritage had a good year. so good that they made a fat book about all the krap they sold and how much they sold it for, and sent it to me. guess no one told them that bragging is impolite...

 

[WolverineX]

On 2/14/2022 at 1:27 AM, Westy Steve said:

Interesting that you use that book as an example. I just bought the best one I could afford at the moment, which is a 6.5.  Why did I buy it? Read on.  

In my humble opinion, the market has really stratified. I know you guys say that dollar bin books are expensive, but realistically it’s only some movie tie in books that get hot in those bins that get hot. And books get hot fast because of FOMO and because the good stuff is so expensive. 

I’ve come to terms with the fact that $500 is the new $200.   I tend to collect more “important” books and my old threshold of $200 doesn’t buy a very important book unless I want low grade. So based on that analysis, I feel that X-Men 94 is a good purchase relative to other stuff out there.  I’ve started looking at prices per grade point and it’s taught me that books like X-Men 94 at $160 to $175 per point seem cheap relative to their relevance. Many of us remember when GSX1 (now at $700 per point) and an X94 cost the same. It seems the X 94 is about equally as painful to purchase as it was when I was a single guy just out of college with a good job. But GSX1 is ridiculous. 

Earlier appearances, once coveted by collectors, are taking a huge backseat to first appearances. And the MCU is driving the bus with such an iron grip that collected books are being forgotten. If you want to collect the “new X-Men“, you’re going to need an X-Men 94 which will cost you about $160 per point mid grade.  Figure out what a werewolf by night 32 will cost you per point   (more than twice as much!) if you want to collect those early appearances. Movie madness! X94 is the relative bargain. 
 

Even with the recent slide, I agree with your analysis.  X-94 has always been up there with GSX1 and Hulk 181.  It will just take time to reach their levels but it will happen. X-men in the MCU is coming. 

 

No one stays satisfied forever.   People with deep pockets who buy a nice GSX1 will need to find another key when Le Chatelier's principle reestablishes equilibrium and they crave another dopamine hit.  X-94 fits the bill and much cheaper.  

 

[WolverineX]

On 2/14/2022 at 10:16 PM, alexgross.com said:

nothing happened, but heritage had a good year. so good that they made a fat book about all the krap they sold and how much they sold it for, and sent it to me. guess no one told them that bragging is impolite...

 

fancy book.  Wasn't expecting to see the naked Kate Moss photo in the middle of it.

[comicnoir]

On 2/14/2022 at 11:36 PM, Wolverinex said:

fancy book.  Wasn't expecting to see the naked Kate Moss photo in the middle of it.

And for the same price they could have a 9.6/9.8 Promise comic. Oh well.

[Buzzetta]

On 2/13/2022 at 8:53 AM, XxSpideyxX said:

I stopped following the market at the start of 2021.  

What is going on now?  What are the current trends and forecasts for 2022?

There remains… “uncertainty” and “suspicion” and “motivation” behind the realized sales that certain auction houses like Goldin and Heritage have “achieved.”

Especially when it came to certain sports cards, art, and video games. 

[ThothAmon]

On 2/14/2022 at 10:16 PM, alexgross.com said:

bragging is impolite

Wonder how much you had to spend to get one?

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 2/14/2022 at 1:34 PM, Upgrayedd2 said:

I lived through the fall of Valiant comics.

Yes; a ton of them fell on my wallet.