Total noob submitting ASM 361 for pressing/grading - how important is fast track? 0

[Kronius]

I have 3 copies of ASM 361 that I am looking to have pressed and graded and my intent is to sell them. Two of them have never even been read so I am hoping for 9.8s (or better??? :-) ) I am concerned about the hype from the movie last year dying down and the value dropping while my books are waiting in a queue.

i have been out of the comic collecting business for 25 years so I am hoping you all can help me out with how the price is likely to fluctuate.

I am trying to decide whether to send them to Joey/CFP for pressing, who currently has an 8 month wait, or go with CCS and pay for fast track, which would be a 3-4 month wait. Then you need to add the grading times to that also.

I am not sure if an extra 4 months is unlikely to make a difference or whether it could drop in value 50% in that time.

Any thoughts?

Thanks!!!

[Ryan.]

My advice is to not try to time the market.

[MattTheDuck]

Trying to "time" any market is an incredibly difficult game.  The good news is that you don't "need" to sell right away since you're willing to wait up to 8 months just to get your books cleaned/pressed/graded.  That tells me that if you went with the longer timeframe, you'd also be in a position to wait afterwards if the market moved against you in the meantime.  With this in mind, I'd encourage you to take the path that you believe will give you the best result with regard to getting a high grade, rather than just considering getting something back more quickly.  There are tons of this book available in high grades and in four or eight months there will probably be even more of them.  ComicLink has four 9.8s White pagers on the Exchange that have been there for a while it appears, offered for between $925 and $1500.  MyComicShop has 12 at $595-$1400.  Good luck!

[Jeffro.]

On 4/30/2022 at 10:34 AM, Kronius said:

 

I am trying to decide whether to send them to Joey/CFP for pressing, who currently has an 8 month wait, or go with CCS and pay for fast track, which would be a 3-4 month wait. Then you need to add the grading times to that also.

 

You get what you pay for and I don't mean that in a complimentary way. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 4/30/2022 at 11:19 AM, JEFFROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO said:

You get what you pay for and I don't mean that in a complimentary way. 

What are you trying to say? 

[MAR1979]

On 4/30/2022 at 10:34 AM, Kronius said:

I have 3 copies of ASM 361 that I am looking to have pressed and graded and my intent is to sell them. Two of them have never even been read so I am hoping for 9.8s (or better??? :-) ) I am concerned about the hype from the movie last year dying down and the value dropping while my books are waiting in a queue.

i have been out of the comic collecting business for 25 years so I am hoping you all can help me out with how the price is likely to fluctuate.

I am trying to decide whether to send them to Joey/CFP for pressing, who currently has an 8 month wait, or go with CCS and pay for fast track, which would be a 3-4 month wait. Then you need to add the grading times to that also.

I am not sure if an extra 4 months is unlikely to make a difference or whether it could drop in value 50% in that time.

Any thoughts?

Thanks!!!

IMHO

- ASM361 was a hot ASM "de jour" in 2020-2021.
- The character at best is cheap jack 3rd rate Venom.
- CGC graded Population for 361 are huge. Especially in 9.8 and 9.6
- The book in 9.8 commands less than half of what it did at end of 2021
- As population increases, there are plenty still in CGC queue with many more on the way, as demand continues to drop.
- My GUESS is sometime this year the book in 9.8 w/White Pages settles into the $275-$350 range for the long haul. Still decent given the huge census pop and what the book cost pre COVID and Film hype

The question is how much $$$ to sink into your copies before diminishing returns rules. If you do not receive 9.8's by the time you get the books back it's possible depending on the grades you won't break even?  While 9.8's are common on this book the fact that you feel as self proclaimed "total noob" they require pressing is not a positive indicator that you will get 9.8's or even 9.6's. Keep in mind the median grade a new book placed out on a comic book stories shelves is 9.4. Those seeking higher like myself would carefully look at book after book and many times have to visiting multiple shops the day of releases (it was a grind I'm glad to have rid myself of). Also note that even well seasoned self-graders are wrong about potential 9.8's usually to the tune of 1-3 per every 10 comics they submit.

Unless you are experienced in self-grading and are reasonably sure you will receive 9.8's, from a fiscal aspect may be best to forgo pressing and grading. If you have personal connection to these books and are looking to keep them for nostalgia then by all mean do press and grade.

One last thing to consider is for the money you will spend getting 3 copies pressed and graded plus ancillary costs like shipping and submission form fee, you might very well be able to purchase a 9.8 of 361 at some point in the next 12 months for close to the same money as you press+grading expenses.  From the financial standpoint that may be the most wise choice.

Top 2 All-Time CGC Census Population Marvel Books! The 9.8 and 9.6 #'sand Average Grade score of 361 are staggeringly high and growing every new census posting. Demand however is not.

Book	Total Submissions	CGC 10.0	CGC 9.9	CGC 9.8	CGC 9.6	CGC 9.4	All Others	Average Grade*
1. Amazing Spider-Man 300 (1988, Marvel Comics)                 Origin & 1st full appearance of Venom (Eddie Brock). Thing appearance. Last black costume.	29,030	0	10	1,543	4,494	5,123	17,860	8.66
2. Amazing Spider-Man 361 (1992, Marvel Comics)                 1st full appearance of Carnage (Cletus Kasady).	25,088	0	4	5,858	8,838	4,542	5,846	9.38

 

Once again above represents my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by MAR1979

[lostboys]

On 4/30/2022 at 12:03 PM, MAR1979 said:

IMHO

- ASM361 was a hot ASM "de jour" in 2020-2021.
- The character at best is cheap jack 3rd rate Venom.
- CGC graded Population for 361 are huge. Especially in 9.8 and 9.6
- The book in 9.8 commands less than half of what it did at end of 2021
- As population increases, there are plenty still in CGC queue with many more on the way, as demand continues to drop.
- My GUESS is sometime this year the book in 9.8 w/White Pages settles into the $275-$350 range for the long haul. Still decent given the huge census pop and what the book cost pre COVID and Film hype

The question is how much $$$ to sink into your copies before diminishing returns rules. If you do not receive 9.8's by the time you get the books back it's possible depending on the grades you won't break even?  While 9.8's are common on this book the fact that you feel as self proclaimed "total noob" they require pressing is not a positive indicator that you will get 9.8's or even 9.6's. Keep in mind the median grade a new book placed out on a comic book stories shelves is 9.4. Those seeking higher like myself would carefully look at book after book and many times have to visiting multiple shops the day of releases (it was a grind I'm glad to have rid myself of). Also note that even well seasoned self-graders are wrong about potential 9.8's usually to the tune of 1-3 per every 10 comics they submit.

Unless you are experienced in self-grading and are reasonably sure you will receive 9.8's, from a fiscal aspect may be best to forgo pressing and grading. If you have personal connection to these books and are looking to keep them for nostalgia then by all mean do press and grade.

One last thing to consider is for the money you will spend getting 3 copies pressed and graded plus ancillary costs like shipping and submission form fee, you might very well be able to purchase a 9.8 of 361 at some point in the next 12 months for close to the same money as you press+grading expenses.  From the financial standpoint that may be the most wise choice.

Top 2 All-Time CGC Census Population Marvel Books! The 9.8 and 9.6 #'sand Average Grade score of 361 are staggeringly high and growing every new census posting. Demand however is not.

Book	Total Submissions	CGC 10.0	CGC 9.9	CGC 9.8	CGC 9.6	CGC 9.4	All Others	Average Grade*
1. Amazing Spider-Man 300 (1988, Marvel Comics)                 Origin & 1st full appearance of Venom (Eddie Brock). Thing appearance. Last black costume.	29,030	0	10	1,543	4,494	5,123	17,860	8.66
2. Amazing Spider-Man 361 (1992, Marvel Comics)                 1st full appearance of Carnage (Cletus Kasady).	25,088	0	4	5,858	8,838	4,542	5,846	9.38

 

Once again above represents my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

Ditto for UF4...right?

[MAR1979]

On 4/30/2022 at 12:37 PM, lostboys said:

Ditto for UF4...right?

Not in my scope of knowledge.  I stopped collecting new books before that.  So I've no opinion whatsoever on any book post 2010, and almost no opinion on anything post 2000. Excluding the partial Josie photo cover in my current signature

Edited April 30, 2022 by MAR1979

[Ryan.]

On 4/30/2022 at 12:03 PM, MAR1979 said:

IMHO

- ASM361 was a hot ASM "de jour" in 2020-2021.
- The character at best is cheap jack 3rd rate Venom.
- CGC graded Population for 361 are huge. Especially in 9.8 and 9.6
- The book in 9.8 commands less than half of what it did at end of 2021
- As population increases, there are plenty still in CGC queue with many more on the way, as demand continues to drop.
- My GUESS is sometime this year the book in 9.8 w/White Pages settles into the $275-$350 range for the long haul. Still decent given the huge census pop and what the book cost pre COVID and Film hype

The question is how much $$$ to sink into your copies before diminishing returns rules. If you do not receive 9.8's by the time you get the books back it's possible depending on the grades you won't break even?  While 9.8's are common on this book the fact that you feel as self proclaimed "total noob" they require pressing is not a positive indicator that you will get 9.8's or even 9.6's. Keep in mind the median grade a new book placed out on a comic book stories shelves is 9.4. Those seeking higher like myself would carefully look at book after book and many times have to visiting multiple shops the day of releases (it was a grind I'm glad to have rid myself of). Also note that even well seasoned self-graders are wrong about potential 9.8's usually to the tune of 1-3 per every 10 comics they submit.

Unless you are experienced in self-grading and are reasonably sure you will receive 9.8's, from a fiscal aspect may be best to forgo pressing and grading. If you have personal connection to these books and are looking to keep them for nostalgia then by all mean do press and grade.

One last thing to consider is for the money you will spend getting 3 copies pressed and graded plus ancillary costs like shipping and submission form fee, you might very well be able to purchase a 9.8 of 361 at some point in the next 12 months for close to the same money as you press+grading expenses.  From the financial standpoint that may be the most wise choice.

Top 2 All-Time CGC Census Population Marvel Books! The 9.8 and 9.6 #'sand Average Grade score of 361 are staggeringly high and growing every new census posting. Demand however is not.

Book	Total Submissions	CGC 10.0	CGC 9.9	CGC 9.8	CGC 9.6	CGC 9.4	All Others	Average Grade*
1. Amazing Spider-Man 300 (1988, Marvel Comics)                 Origin & 1st full appearance of Venom (Eddie Brock). Thing appearance. Last black costume.	29,030	0	10	1,543	4,494	5,123	17,860	8.66
2. Amazing Spider-Man 361 (1992, Marvel Comics)                 1st full appearance of Carnage (Cletus Kasady).	25,088	0	4	5,858	8,838	4,542	5,846	9.38

 

Once again above represents my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

But he said they were unread.

[Ed Hanes]

On 4/30/2022 at 9:37 AM, lostboys said:

Ditto for UF4...right?

Assuming you mean Ultimate Fallout  4, if you look at yearly sales (GPA comics) , you see they reached a peak last summer, contracted a bit in fall but have surged a little again above last year's peaks...it still seems to be a great book to invest in...the contrast between UF4 and ASM 361 is very large in market trends

Edited April 30, 2022 by Ed Hanes

[Jeffro.]

On 4/30/2022 at 11:52 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

On 4/30/2022 at 11:19 AM, JEFFROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO said:

You get what you pay for and I don't mean that in a complimentary way. 

What are you trying to say? 

When I read it my brain inserted "quick press" into the equation but obviously he never states that he's going to use that, and he shouldn't. However, regarding fast track? It's a way to milk even more money out of impatient people while still requiring them to wait far too long to get their comics back. 

[Kronius]

On 4/30/2022 at 11:03 AM, MAR1979 said:

IMHO

- ASM361 was a hot ASM "de jour" in 2020-2021.

…

Unless you are experienced in self-grading and are reasonably sure you will receive 9.8's, from a fiscal aspect may be best to forgo pressing and grading. If you have personal connection to these books and are looking to keep them for nostalgia then by all mean do press and grade.

…

Top 2 All-Time CGC Census Population Marvel Books! The 9.8 and 9.6 #'sand Average Grade score of 361 are staggeringly high and growing every new census posting. Demand however is not.

…

 

Thank you for the very thoughtful post.

It kills me that I missed the 2020-2021 hype.

I definitely do not trust my grading skills. I talked to my local comic shop that I trust. They said even a skilled grader has trouble predicting 9.6 vs 9.8. They also said if it’s worth grading then they recommend pressing it because it does not add much to the cost but it can potentially make a huge difference in value if that is what gets you a 9.8.

If I don’t pay for fast pass then I can submit those three with other books to spread out the shipping cost. Then the cost per book is only about $50 which even if I get a 9.6 is probably enough to make some profit. 9.6s are currently selling for $250-350 on eBay. Even if that is cut in half by the time I get them back, that’s still a profit for me. Now, if I got a 9.4 there may not be a profit in it and maybe a loss.

I had seen the 9.8 and 9.6 population for 361 previously, and it is nuts but not surprising I guess, considering everyone (including myself) was hoping it would be the next ASM 300. There are also a LOT of 9.8s on eBay right now. They seem to sell for about $600 currently.

[Kronius]

On 4/30/2022 at 12:19 PM, Ryan. said:

But he said they were unread.

I’m the original owner since 1992.

[rjpb]

I'd investigate other pressers, preferably one local to you if there is one. You should be able to find one who measures turnaround time in weeks not months. 

[Kronius]

On 4/30/2022 at 1:07 PM, rjpb said:

I'd investigate other pressers, preferably one local to you if there is one. You should be able to find one who measures turnaround time in weeks not months. 

Good idea. I did some googling and Richard Guzman from gocollect.com recommends Strictly Comix in Houston, Texas, which is near me. I don't see any posts about that place on these boards, though. And the post just said "I hear many good things about" ... no first hand experience. It's tough to go with a place without hearing directly from customers with first hand experience, even if the wait time will be much shorter.

[MAR1979]

Even the supreme hyperbolic speculators at gocollect no longer have much good to say about 361

Venom may be getting a sequel, but we won’t be seeing Carnage. After fans were thrilled to see him come to life on the big screen, he met an ignominious demise in Let There Be Carnage. Despite being hyped since the post-credits scene of 2018’s Venom, Cletus Kasady had his head bitten off, and the Carnage symbiote was swallowed whole at the conclusion of LTBC. Unless Sony is planning to fuse Venom and Carnage together, that looks like the end of the psychotic symbiote. It also spells the end for mega price tags for the ASM #361s you’ve been stockpiling, including the newsstand editions.

There is a silver lining when it comes to all those Carnage keys, at least for collectors. As the end of his cinematic career shoos away the speculators and investors, Carnage fans can expect prices to continue to fall. If you have been waiting for the right time to get an ASM #361, be patient.

To @Kronius this will probably means all 3 in 9.6 may become a break-even scenario. if you get one or more 9.4's you may be in the red add a 9.2 or lower into the mix and its "game over".  I know it's not what you want to read, but ability to make a profit on your pressing and grading expenditure may have passed for what might possibly be years.

It is important to note using eBay to sell you will loose 12% to fees not including Paypal fees.

Short of perfectly timed dead cat bounce on 361, IMHO you really need at least 1 9.8 to make this a profitable undertaking vs your expenses and potential selling fee as these books will continue to drop during the 6 months (optimistically) they are away. Best bet might be get what you can for the books locally and raw that way no expenses to eat at the profit.

Frankly if not selling raw and off fee taking sites and payment methods, at this juncture you will be to make more money and guarantee a profit + keep up w/inflation by purchasing $200-$300 in Series I bonds

Edited April 30, 2022 by MAR1979

[Kronius]

On 4/30/2022 at 2:23 PM, MAR1979 said:

...

To @Kronius this will probably means all 3 in 9.6 may become a break-even scenario. if you get one or more 9.4's you may be in the red add a 9.2 or lower into the mix and its "game over".  I know it's not what you want to read, but ability to make a profit on your pressing and grading expenditure may have passed for what might possibly be years.

...

Maybe its worth using using these three 361s to test out my local presser that I mentioned in my other post (4-6 week turnaround). Then it's only $15 extra to add fast track for the grading which cuts another 60 days off the turnaround.

Going that route would make the total time from pressing to grading 8-10 weeks.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Kronius

[Kronius]

On 4/30/2022 at 3:25 PM, Heavyheavyheavy said:

Just to make sure, it's the regular grading fee PLUS $15 for FT so the cheapest it would be is $39 per comic.

https://www.cgccomics.com/submit/services-fees/cgc-grading/

Yes, I was not clear. I was comparing it to my original post where I was considering paying for fast track for both CCS pressing and CGC grading which would be a total of $30 per book just for the fast track, plus all the other fees and shipping charges.

I edited my post to make it clearer.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Kronius

[Kronius]

On 4/30/2022 at 2:50 PM, Kronius said:

Maybe its worth using using these three 361s to test out my local presser that I mentioned in my other post (4-6 week turnaround). Then it's only $15 extra to add fast track for the grading which cuts another 60 days off the turnaround.

Going that route would make the total time from pressing to grading 8-10 weeks.

Of course if I do this, I'm completely ignoring the original advice I received, which seemed reasonable, to not try to time the market....

[ExNihilo]

On 4/30/2022 at 10:50 AM, Kronius said:

considering everyone (including myself) was hoping it would be the next ASM 300.

People thought that?  I've been collecting since the early 90s and not once do I recollect a large portion of people with this sentiment.  Venom was immediately popular for a generation of collectors.  I remember my cousin and I had to have every Venom book.  Carnage never reached that same level of popularity.  Never mind the fact that the print run for 361 was likely dramatically higher than 300 as the early 90s was probably near the peak of when speculators were in the market.  I still remember going to the comic shop near my college in 2003 and seeing stacks of 362 and 363 on sale for $1 (looking back, I wish I bought some but I already had all 3 books).

As I said in another thread, if you want an example of a modern character/book to compare to Venom/ASM300, I think it's Miles Morales/UF4.  That character has become hugely popular with collectors in the same way Venom did in the late 80s.  He's now appeared in video games, a hit movie, and the mere hint of him in MCU movies gets people excited.