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"Bring on the Deadpool and Rob McIlhenny" - Welcome to Wrexham!
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Started by sfcityduck,

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Beige

Beige

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On 11/21/2022 at 10:48 PM, sfcityduck said:

A few things worth noting:

Wrexham AFC are the subject of the documentary not the owners of the documentary.  The club is paid $400k per hour of the doc.  I have seen the $3.2m for total income to AFC from Season 1.

The show is a hit. Rob and Ryan are likely each making much more from the doc than they paid for the team.

The stadium cost is (1) decreased by govt. funding, (2) undoubtedly spread out over many years via loans or bonds, (3) significantly defrayed by extra ticket income and extra income derived by the new indoor spaces for events in the stands, (4) will attract more non-AFC events to the venue, and (5) is being undertaken with significant investment bank advice so we can assume it makes financial sense.

Yes costs will increase as the team moves up leagues (as will income), but so does the value and potential value of the club. Rob and Ryan can bring on board additional ownership to boost capital. The value of EPL teams runs into the billions.

I see no reason to shed any tears for Rob and Ryan.

It's really hard to  understand the EFL and UK football -  it really is difficult unless you lived there and went to games.

 

Most of what you have posted is completely wrong sadly - and they explained why in the show, but it is hard to get if you don't go to the games / live in UK.

I guess the 1st thing is that Rob / Ryan ARE the show - not Wrexham - Why?

Because people who know about the EFL already, know Wrexhams future.

In 5 yrs time, 10 yrs 20 yrs - they will be exactly where they are now. A L2 club yo-yoing between the National League and L1.

The reason?

Rob and Ryan simply do not have enough money.

Even if they pooled all their earnings - they are so far short of the money needed to make Wrexham into a sustainable Championship club it's not funny.

As for the Prem - No. Clubs are selling for Billions, and the gap between the Prem and the Champ is now just too wide, unless you get someone with BILLIONS to spend.

 

Championship Clubs are losing on average £30-40 MILLION per season. 

 

 

Rob and Ryan don't have the money. End of.

 

It''s not just having 11 players on the field and getting points that get's you promoted - you need a certain amount of training area's, a certain ratio of coaches, any academy needs to be of a certain standard. Terracing has to be turned into seating etc etc.

Clubs have been financially crippled by getting their ground / facilities / staffing / academy to the required standard which gets more and more demanding the higher you go up the pyramid.

 

Finances:

I don't know how you missed the 12 minute chat about wages?

Shaun Harvey clearly broke down the fact that not even half-way through the season, they were massively over-budget on wages. Massively.

They allowed for £1.3 million

By Xmas they had spent £2.1 million. And then bought Ollie Palmer!

Wages in the National League (and I have previously posted this, so maybe go back and read?) are £900,000 per CLUB.

Wrexham spent £3,100,000

They posted a club operating loss of nearly £2,000,000 from the start of Rob / Ryans tenure to the end of the last season - £2,000,000!!

 

And that's in the published Wrexham AFC accounts.

 

That's does N0T include non-playing staff like Shaun Harvey. It does NOT include the club purchase.

As for Banks etc - the grant for £40,000,000 for the new stand is an infrastructure grant because of the ability to stage international football afterwards - it is a ONE-OFF grant. There is no more.

Banks and Govt stopped bailing out Football Clubs in the UK decades ago - do you think Wrexham supporters didn't try to get a bank loan when they went to the wall?

For some clubs - with sufficient equity, and big income streams - maybe.

Wrexham aren't one of those clubs.

 

Attendances - Wrexhams average currently attendance is 9400 in a 12,000 stadium. They can't fill it now, whilst on the back of this publicity, a cup trip to Wembley and sitting in the top 2.

 

Where are these extra people coming from?

Not Wrexham - so where?

 

The idea that Wrexham will get 15,000 a game, 20,000 a game is false. There are no 'hidden' Wrexham fans. Before this they averaged 4,000 a game.

Who will come to these new spaces in the stand? 

You have all you need for events, and on a bigger and proven scale, 30 mins away in Manchester / Merseyside. Why will they go to Wrexham?

As for the show - yes,it's popular now - but in 3 / 4 yrs, when Wrexham are STILL flopping around League 2, playing the same players against the same teams, in the same grounds, who is watching?

Not people who are watching Football, it will be people who are spellbound watching Rob and Ryan slowly grasp that they have absolutely made the biggest mistake of their lives.

 

They are the show.

Spending £50,000,000 on a white Elephant of a stand, £5,000,000+ per year on wages and staffing, seeing crowds dwindle, matchday income falling make this a must-see slow-motion car-crash. 

Blake Lively is already moaning about Ryans spending!

 

And then there is the ending.

 

Who is going to buy a small club, in a small town, in the bottom League for the amount Rob and Ryan need to break-even?

 

'Welcome To Wrexham' covers their costs? Not a chance in Hell. They have more chance of making it to The Premier League. And the chance of that is Zero.

 

Keep watching - it will be a blast! :foryou:

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sfcityduck

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On 11/23/2022 at 3:49 PM, Beige said:

It's really hard to  understand the EFL and UK football -  it really is difficult unless you lived there and went to games.

 

Most of what you have posted is completely wrong sadly - and they explained why in the show, but it is hard to get if you don't go to the games / live in UK.

 

 

 

 

I don't live in the UK, it is true. But I've been a football fan my entire life.  And I have the advantage of working for an international law firm headquartered out of London.  It does not hurt that my practice deals extensively with investment banks.  And here's what I think you are missing.

Rob and Ryan are much more intelligent (and wealthier) than you think.  They didn't buy Wrexham on a lark.  The story told in the documentary is not false, it is just grossly incomplete. They hired a top investment bank to gameplan this all out. They shopped around and considered teams for over a year before they bought.  They are advised not only by specialists in sporting team acquisition but by top law firms and financial advisors. The notion that that they bought the team on a lark or on Humphrey's advice or without Blake Lively knowing are all about as true as eBay was created because the founder's wife was a Pez collector - in other words: Not at all.  Yes, Rob and Ryan know the history of Wrexham intimately, including that in the 1970s Wrexham drew much larger attendance (up to 20,000) than they do today, but that's all because they had top level advisors when they sought to make an acquisition.  None of this effort is based on ignorance.  It is based on the same very careful planning that has allowed a TV sitcom actor (Ryan’s first big break) to own a mobile phone company, a very successful marketing company, and an increasingly successful spirits business, as well as Hollywood production companies.  

These guys are NOT babes in the woods and they are not flying blind.  So whatever the conventional wisdom of the folks in the cheaps seats is ... really does not matter to me.  I'm trusting their business record, that of their advisors, and the fact that additional investment and investors is always possible (especially if you're a pair of Hollywood stars) as this journey continues.  There's no shortage of billionaires in the world who might want to invest later on, especially if you are a pair of very popular and well-liked hollywood stars. Heck, there's 116 billionaires in my area (SF) and 45 or so in LA where Rob and Ryan live.  We live in a world where billionaires like Ballmer feel no hesitancy to pay massive amounts for sports franchises in the US and EPL teams like Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Burnley, Crytal Palace, and Fulham are all under full or significant U.S. ownership. Half the EPL is under foreign ownership.

Do any good EPL teams remain under Brit ownership? 

I don't think capital will ever be a problem for Rob and Ryan no matter what the conventional wisdom in the cheap seats is. 

 

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On 11/23/2022 at 3:49 PM, Beige said:

 

Rob and Ryan simply do not have enough money.

Even if they pooled all their earnings - they are so far short of the money needed to make Wrexham into a sustainable Championship club it's not funny.

As for the Prem - No. Clubs are selling for Billions, and the gap between the Prem and the Champ is now just too wide, unless you get someone with BILLIONS to spend.

...

Championship Clubs are losing on average £30-40 MILLION per season. 

...

Rob and Ryan don't have the money.

...

 

Finances:

I don't know how you missed the 12 minute chat about wages?

Shaun Harvey clearly broke down the fact that not even half-way through the season, they were massively over-budget on wages. Massively.

They allowed for £1.3 million

By Xmas they had spent £2.1 million. And then bought Ollie Palmer!

Wages in the National League (and I have previously posted this, so maybe go back and read?) are £900,000 per CLUB.

Wrexham spent £3,100,000

They posted a club operating loss of nearly £2,000,000 from the start of Rob / Ryans tenure to the end of the last season - £2,000,000!!

 

 

I disagree with you because your financial analysis, to my eyes, appears naive. 

You are analyzing Wrexham from the perspective of it being a National League team when the correct analysis should be as a team trying to return to the EFL.  An operating loss of £2,000,000 is simply not a major concern when the payoff after sustaining that loss would be EFL participation. It is properly viewed not as a loss, but as an investment.  And the return on investment ("ROI") for Wrexham in moving back to into the EFL is considerable. Which is why Rob and Ryan and their advisors believe this is a reasonable bet to make (and the present table suggests it will be a winning bet).

Did I miss the discussion of wages?  No.  One of the points made by Harvey is that if Wrexham AFC succeeds in moving up to the EFL they will be able to attract better players for LESS wages.  And part of that point bears emphasis because I think you are missing something important: The spending of Wrexham AFC is not intended to be in tune with a budget aimed at sustaining a team in the National League - it is a budget intended to propel the team into the EFL.

Can Rob and Ryan, doing business through the RR McReynolds Company a California LLC (the actual entity through which Rob and Ryan bought Wrexham), afford to fund payroll to the tune of a few million pounds? Yes - clearly, they can and are. Not sure why you are engaging in handwringing over this. As I pointed out previously, Wrexham AFC are not the owners or producers of "Welcome to Wrexham."  The documentary pays off Wrexham AFC to the tune of $400K per hour of documentary.  That's a nice payment to AFC, but that is just a line item in the budget of "Welcome to Wrexham."  Rob and Ryan are earning salaries for their roles in the tv show and, most importantly, are earning profits as the owners of the show (not the team, the show) which undoubtedly result in them making much more off the "Welcome to Wrexham" show than Wrexham AFC is losing in payroll expense. Wrexham AFC is not defaulting on its payroll obligations for the simple fact that Rob and Ryan have ample ability to make up Wrexham AFC's payroll shortfalls with additional cash contributions.  Again, those payroll expenses are likely more than fully covered by the profits they receive from the highly successful "Welcome to Wrexham."  No handwringing is necessary.

Your main premise that "Rob and Ryan don't have the money" underestimates their personal resources, the money they make off the documentary, and most importantly the nature of their ownership of Wrexham AFC.  

Can RR McReynolds Company LLC obtain capital infusions as time goes by?  Yes.  They can expand the ownership of the LLC which would result in capital infusion.  It might well be a very attractive investment for many very rich people who like Rob and Ryan and the attention that the investment can bring. Sports team ownership often has a high degree of vanity. The notion that the future of Wrexham AFC is capped by Rob and Ryan's personal wealth is faulty.  The ownership of the LLC entity which owns the team can always expand and change (and I'm ignoring the whole issue of leveraged debt).

Your additional point about Championship Clubs losing "on average £30-40 MILLION" misses an important consideration. The leap in value of a club when it moves from the Championship into the EPL is astounding. Promotion is worth at least £150 million to the team earning promotion. (Which is why the Championship League play-off final is the game with the highest payoff to the winner in all of sports.) For those that win promotion it is a bet well-made. And, as I'm sure you know, the biggest losses in the Championship League are usually sustained by the teams winning promotion; whereas some of the smallest losses are sustained by teams being relegated downward from the Championship league. 

As you acknowledge, EPL clubs are selling for billions. Sports franchise ownership is often an equity play not a revenue play.  Rob and Ryan have gotten in to EFL game with a minimal equity investment of a few million.  The upside on that bet is potentially extremely high.  So, again, I'm not shedding any tears for them or the additional owners which will likely board their ship as the journey continues. 

 

 

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sfcityduck

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On 11/23/2022 at 3:49 PM, Beige said:

 

As for Banks etc - the grant for £40,000,000 for the new stand is an infrastructure grant because of the ability to stage international football afterwards - it is a ONE-OFF grant. There is no more.

Banks and Govt stopped bailing out Football Clubs in the UK decades ago - do you think Wrexham supporters didn't try to get a bank loan when they went to the wall?

For some clubs - with sufficient equity, and big income streams - maybe.

Wrexham aren't one of those clubs.

 

Attendances - Wrexhams average currently attendance is 9400 in a 12,000 stadium. They can't fill it now, whilst on the back of this publicity, a cup trip to Wembley and sitting in the top 2.

 

Two final points.

The grant of £40 million (if made) is a government, not bank, grant that falls into the category of "leveling up funds" - as you said a one-time payment.  But it is a one-time payment which defrays over 40% of the new stand's cost.  Banks don't "bail out" anyone - but they DO make them loans or support private bond offerings, both of which fall into the category of leveraged capital infusions. It is likely that the stands are also funded in part with a hefty loan or bond.

As for attendance, Wrexham AFC is selling out its stadium at its present capacity for many games.  It has recently had to cap UK resident memberships (a subscription for the opportunity to buy tickets to each game) at 10,000 because they could not guarantee member tickets upward of that amount.  The demand is stripping capacity for many games.  And across a season, 9,400 in attendance for a 12,000 seat stadium is a fantastic figure (it is 9,949 so far this season). That attendance is not only the best in the National League, it exceeds average attendance for both League 2 and League 1 teams (the next two highest leagues above them now).  And it is not an aberration. Wrexham was top 2 in attendance in the National League in the last pre-Covid season before Rob and Ryan bought the team - Wrexham AFC has a strong and dedicated fan base, which is undoubtedly one reason why Rob and Ryan's sports franchise acquisition advisors recommended they buy Wrexham instead of some other team.  

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Beige

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Well, not being an investment banker, or mix with the beautiful people that international lawyers seem to mix with, I'll just take my leave and ease back into my cheap seat. 

 

All I'll say is: English Football is littered with the corpses of clubs that were taken over by people who were convinced that they had the knowledge, money and contacts that made a trip to the premier League a sure thing.

 

And advised by people who were sooooooooo successful that their own hubris could not comprehend that mission failing. hm

 

If the endgame is, as you seem to be saying - "spend what you like guys, you will get it all back when you hit the Premier League" - then you, and they, are in for a shock. They, like you patronised anyone with a different take (and maybe not be such a condescending wanker when you reply).

I'm trying to find the words to explain, but it's difficult - you obviously think success will come with $$ - it won't.

It's more to do with culture, tribal territory, respecting the badge. Things that make zero sense to a high-flying lawyer. But they DO matter - take a look at Hull City and Cardiff City for examples. If you can understand what went wrong, despite the millions pumped into each club, then you will get what I am trying to say (and that's not a dig :foryou:  - the intangibles of the EFL are real, they matter). The new owners of each club got it horribly wrong, and despite their huge resources of $$$ now preside over clubs that either didn't make the Prem, or did and went back down. Both clubs are a basket case, with huge losses every year, a fan base that won't attend, and a poisonous atmosphere for any player playing there.

Both clubs (and there are many more) had much better grounds, bigger fanbases, and much more success in their past. And they were both higher up the pyramid when bought. 

 

A question for you, if I may? @sfcityduck

 

1) Where do you think Wrexham will be in 5 yrs, and how much can they spend to get there, will be acceptable in your eyes?

2) How long do Rob and Ryan anticipate this journey to the Premier League will take?

 

 

 

 

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On 11/25/2022 at 8:35 PM, Beige said:

Well, not being an investment banker, or mix with the beautiful people that international lawyers seem to mix with, I'll just take my leave and ease back into my cheap seat. 

 

All I'll say is: English Football is littered with the corpses of clubs that were taken over by people who were convinced that they had the knowledge, money and contacts that made a trip to the premier League a sure thing.

 

And advised by people who were sooooooooo successful that their own hubris could not comprehend that mission failing. hm

 

If the endgame is, as you seem to be saying - "spend what you like guys, you will get it all back when you hit the Premier League" - then you, and they, are in for a shock. They, like you patronised anyone with a different take (and maybe not be such a condescending wanker when you reply).

I'm trying to find the words to explain, but it's difficult - you obviously think success will come with $$ - it won't.

It's more to do with culture, tribal territory, respecting the badge. Things that make zero sense to a high-flying lawyer. But they DO matter - take a look at Hull City and Cardiff City for examples. If you can understand what went wrong, despite the millions pumped into each club, then you will get what I am trying to say (and that's not a dig :foryou:  - the intangibles of the EFL are real, they matter). The new owners of each club got it horribly wrong, and despite their huge resources of $$$ now preside over clubs that either didn't make the Prem, or did and went back down. Both clubs are a basket case, with huge losses every year, a fan base that won't attend, and a poisonous atmosphere for any player playing there.

Both clubs (and there are many more) had much better grounds, bigger fanbases, and much more success in their past. And they were both higher up the pyramid when bought. 

 

A question for you, if I may? @sfcityduck

 

1) Where do you think Wrexham will be in 5 yrs, and how much can they spend to get there, will be acceptable in your eyes?

2) How long do Rob and Ryan anticipate this journey to the Premier League will take?

 

 

 

 

Many apologies!  Enjoy your posts and not trying to silence you.  But, your "you have to have lived in the UK to understand" line rubbed me a bit wrong. I was pointing out that while knowledge of the EPL can lead to insights, and I did appreciate many of your insights (especially the details on the geography and reputation of the Wrexham area), but that's just one facet of a multi-faceted issue.  I think on the financial issues you missed the mark in the particulars I identified.  

Nothing wrong with disagreement you wanker!  LOL!

I'm well aware of the yo yo ride that Aston Villa fans have had and the likely relegation of Burnley.  Clubs go up and down.  Which is what makes the EPL so much cooler than American baseball and its minor leagues which are frozen at their levels.  But finances are the key to success in the EPL.  We all know the richest teams have the most success.  Where we disagree is you appear to think that Wrexham AFC's present is less funded than I do, and you think it is future will include less finances than I think it will (because I believe the ownership will evolve as time goes by).  In the end, only time will tell.

As for your very reasonable questions:

(1) If it were me in charge, my goal would be League 1 in five seasons.  That's assuming they make it up to League 2 this season - which I think they likely will.  

(2) Rob and Ryan are long-term thinkers.  Ryan's been with the same show for 16 years.  He played the long game on that show, taking little money early in his career in exchange for creative control and then renegotiating as the years went by.  Ryan knows how to build businesses as diverse as cell phones, marketing, and spirits - undoubtedly with lots of help from expert advisers.  I suspect that they have a very realistic plan and expectations.  On the show, they speak of timelines that span 15 years or so.  That may well be realistic.  

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Beige

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On 11/26/2022 at 3:52 PM, sfcityduck said:

 

As for your very reasonable questions:

(1) If it were me in charge, my goal would be League 1 in five seasons.  That's assuming they make it up to League 2 this season - which I think they likely will.  

(2) Rob and Ryan are long-term thinkers.  Ryan's been with the same show for 16 years.  He played the long game on that show, taking little money early in his career in exchange for creative control and then renegotiating as the years went by.  Ryan knows how to build businesses as diverse as cell phones, marketing, and spirits - undoubtedly with lots of help from expert advisers.  I suspect that they have a very realistic plan and expectations.  On the show, they speak of timelines that span 15 years or so.  That may well be realistic.  

All good, and thanks for the considered reply.

I'll admit that you pointing out L2 and L1 were above the National League did irritate - but agree, enjoy the banter :foryou:

 

League 1 in 5 years is exactly what I thought as well. The championship takes a different calibre of player to L1, and will take very careful preparation.

 

15 yrs - if they stick for that long, they deserve the rewards.

 

A couple of things that you may not have factored in - the attendances in the 1970's reflected a Wrexham that was, not is.

The catchment area has shrunk by approx 40% since then, and with the closure of heavy industry, the pop is now 65,000. Only 38,000 are of 'employment age' - and only 70% of those actually have full-time work.

Wrexham and surrounds are in a part of the UK which, frankly, has been left behind.

Money is tight - and football is a discretionary spend.

As such, they will turn quickly if things don't go to plan

Cardiff City FC is a great example of fan-power, where fans voted with their wallets against an unpopular owner, despite getting into the Premier League - and that lead to players not signing due to the toxic atmosphere, poor morale amongst those who did and relegation.

 

Hull are another - if you have the time, do some digging - they are cautionary tales.

 

I guess my biggest concern regarding finances - if Rob and Ryan have more money to invest than the show is saying - why start so low on the pyramid?

There are 'ready to go' clubs in the Championship - Bristol City is the obvious choice. New stadium, never been in the Premier League, huge catchment area (1,000,000 people) - and the club is actually for sale.

It also has a Premier League Rugby Team, Basketball Team, and Womens Team playing in the stadium, plus a history of hosting huge concerts, and an average attendance of 20,000+

 

Sure, it will be expensive - at least £250,000,000, but it's ready to go.

 

If too expensive (and that is a lot of cash to risk):

L2 has Ex-prem Teams Bradford City, Swindon Town, Wimbledon and Orient. All in good areas of support, and all with better facilities

L1 has some genuine sleeping Giants such as Ipswich,Derby,Bolton and Portsmouth etc etc

Derby County recently settled their debt issue with the taxman, and were purchased for £1 with a peppercorn 100 yr ground lease.

 

Derby would be a much better choice, as would all the above clubs - so you see where my confusion with their finances come from.

 

I think it will be an exciting journey - I do wonder though - will Wrexham still interest American viewers enough to still be watching in 5 years?

And if not - why would Rob and Ryan bother with the club?

I'll admit Rob seems genuine, but Ryan - nah, not convinced.

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On 11/26/2022 at 5:17 PM, Beige said:

All good, and thanks for the considered reply.

I'll admit that you pointing out L2 and L1 were above the National League did irritate - but agree, enjoy the banter :foryou:

 

I know you know that, but I'm trying to make this easy for the other readers. 

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Wrexham advanced in the FA Cup on Saturday behind a Paul Mullin hat trick.

FA cup draw for the “Third Round Proper” occurs today with The EPL teams entering the pool.  Every smaller team, including I am sure Wrexham, are praying for a game against an EPL team at the EPL team’s home stadium.  Why?  Big attendance payoff.

I imagine Wrexham fans want a game against one of the relatively local EPL teams in the Manchester/Liverpool area.  "Super Paul" Mullin stated he wanted: “Liverpool away or Everton at home. I’d favour either of the ties. Liverpool would be more special to me, with me being a Liverpool fan, but equally playing Everton here would be a nice opportunity to cause an upset.”  

Me, I want to see them either play a very weak opponent with a chance to advance or a London team like Arsenal. 

Draw is coming up and in a few hours so we will know soon!

FA games will be televised and it looks like the National League teams may be getting second half of of the season  permission to televise games.  A victory Wrob and Wryan.

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Beige

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Coventry are on a bit of a good run - but the WC break tends to slow momentum.

Hard to pick their form - due to a pitch ripped up by the rugby team, they have only played at 'home' a few times.

Comfortably mid-table though.

Plenty of Tickets for Wrexham fans - can't see a crowd of over 10 - 12,000 unless they price the tix at a fiver or something.

Wrexham have a sluggers chance - best bet will be to hold out for a draw and get a sell-out replay at the Racecourse.

Coventry should win though, by a couple of goals.

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Another bad FA Cup draw for Wrexham. Instead of getting an EPL team like Arsenal, Man U, Tottenham, etc. on the road (huge stadiums) which would be a big payday, they get Sheffield Wednesday United who presently sit second in L1 the Championship League at home - in other words a good team of a quality that is two or three levels above them (a very tough match) but no cache or big payday.  Always hope for an upset and in theory this is an easier game than the upset they just pulled off - but very hard to pull off more than one upset like that.

Reason for edit: Correcting my misinformation.  

 

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Interesting discussion.  We've been watching "The Curse of Oak Island" since it began and have often speculated about the finances.  It's hard to imagine the millions would have spent if it was just two guys from Michigan's Upper Peninsula.  The History Channel must be spending a gigantic amount of cash to have all those hangers-on, guest scientists and so on, along with the hugely expensive excavation equipment. It would be really interesting to know the precise funding and outlays for shows like this or "Wrexham."

 

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On 1/8/2023 at 10:00 AM, MattTheDuck said:

Interesting discussion.  We've been watching "The Curse of Oak Island" since it began and have often speculated about the finances.  It's hard to imagine the millions would have spent if it was just two guys from Michigan's Upper Peninsula.  The History Channel must be spending a gigantic amount of cash to have all those hangers-on, guest scientists and so on, along with the hugely expensive excavation equipment. It would be really interesting to know the precise funding and outlays for shows like this or "Wrexham."

 

I think Wrexham is a fairly cheap show to produce.  It's pretty no frills.  

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