CGC - Prices and the census - Your Opinions

[valiantman]

Here's the situation...

 

Let's say there is an un-named semi-key Bronze or Silver Age comic

that lists for $100 for NM94 in the latest price guide.

 

What would you say is a "fair price" for 9.0? 9.2? 9.4? 9.6? 9.8?

 

It depends on the CGC Census, right?

 

Assume that the CGC Census looks like this:

10.0 = 0

9.9 = 0

9.8 = 5

9.6 = 25

9.4 = 75

9.2 = 100

9.0 = 115

8.5 = 130

8.0 and lower = 150

Total copies graded = 600

 

I'm wondering what you guys "feel" would be fair on the 9.0+ grades...

 

For example:

 

9.8 = $350

9.6 = $200

9.4 = $125

9.2 = $90

9.0 = $60

 

Wanna play?

[joe_collector]

What would you say is a "fair price" for 9.0? 9.2? 9.4? 9.6? 9.8?

 

It depends on the CGC Census, right?

 

Nope, it depends a lot on the book, what flaws it has, such as Date Stamps, writing, production issues, cover mis-wraps, etc.

 

These days, the CGC grade is just a factor in the overall price.

[sfilosa]

I do an analysis on many Silver-Age Marvels. In general

 

CGC books get.

 

VF/NM - 90-110% of NM Guide

NM- - 125-175% of NM Guide

NM - 275-350% of NM Guide

 

The semi-key books probably get the most premium since many people would/could feel that they are undervalued in the guide.

 

Hope this helps.

[valiantman]

This is actually what I was looking for...

 

The "average percentages" that are generally seen, based on actual sale results.

 

How do your percentages change for lesser books? (Non-keys, moderns, etc.)

The general feeling is that some CGC 9.0 or even CGC 9.4 books aren't even

worth the CGC fees...though 9.6 or 9.8+ can be many multiples of guide.

 

Eventually, it seems like it will all come down to mathematical averages...

Like Overstreet's "standard percentages" for the pricing columns.

(Taking into consideration the raw price and the cgc distributions.)

[joe_collector]

>>Eventually, it seems like it will all come down to mathematical averages...

 

Ah, the Wizard Methodology.

 

Personally, I don't see how a speculator-based, extremely volatile market like high-grade CGC comics could ever be categorized. Depending on movie/character hype, a comic that sells for $200 one day, can fetch $1K the next.

 

Those who try and quantify it with strict multipliers are wasting their time; this is the free market at work and it will not be placed neatly into a "CGC Values" box.

[murph0]

It depends on the book. There's large amounts of ASM's on the census compared to other titles yet ASM prices remain high due to a large collector base. The census only plays a real role when you're looking at highest grade copy or a book that is tough to come by in H.G. (like a bronze book with only a handful of 9.4's or better)

 

Brian

[valiantman]

There's a combo of price and distribution, whether we like it or not.

The limit of 9.2 prices will (should) be whatever 9.4 goes for.

The limit of 9.0 prices is the 9.2 price.

 

Sure it's different from book-to-book, but so is the raw price...

Plot 'em and track 'em...and it gets pretty formulaic whether you like it or not.

(Black-Scholes models, anyone?)

 

If there's a book for sale in CGC 9.2...

we usually say, "What's the going rate for this book in 9.2?"

...and if there's no available info, we'd say

"Ok...so what's the going rate for 9.0 and what's the going rate for 9.4?"

 

Using 9.0 and 9.4, we would all decide what 9.2 is worth...

so, how would we decide that?

Half-way between? Maybe...

But what if 9.0 is plentiful, 9.2 is tough, and 9.4 is almost non-existent?

What if everything from 9.0 to 9.6 is plentiful?

 

How do YOU price that 9.2?

(You know...I'm starting to think this all rhetorical anyway... )

[blowout]

How do YOU price that 9.2?

 

The 9.2 price will always be much closer to the 9.0 price than the 9.4.

CGC 9.4 is the first true NM grade and will always command more attention than the lower grades.

The problem with trying to attach multiples to CGC NM grades comes when you factor speculators/investors in.

A certain multiple system *may* work for collectors, but investors will be progressively searching for higher and higher grades as more books get slabbed. Therefore over time the high multiples will jump from 9.4 to 9.6 to 9.8 to 9.9 etc. Depending on what the perception of 'rarity' is at the time.