How accurate is the Census?!

[Amazing_Bag_man]

What I mean is when let say that the Incredible Hulk 181 is now at 1342 submitted at CGC, but real the count should be alittle lower only because alot of the rabid investors want to get that extra 0.2 or about 0.4 higher then that 9.0. Then you could say it's really 1145 true submitions at CGC for example.. Let go one step further and say the whole census board could be inaccurate and you don't know what to believe anymore.

[sfilosa]

The census will never be perfectly accurate, but it is an improve from having nothing.

 

So what if there have been resubmits. I for one believe that there are a lot more ungraded copies (in the hands of collectors) than there are graded copies at this time.

 

A perfect point was in the Marketplace. Sullypython said he finally looked in a box of books that he bought 10 years ago and found many bronze age gems. He sent them to CGC and a lot came back 9.4 (and some 9.6). Do you think he is the only dealer that has boxes of books that they haven't looked at since CGC came into exsistence.

 

The census is a tool, but it will be many years before it become accurate enough to form solid opinions on the rarity of certain books.

[murph0]

I'd guess that on heavily submitted books (over 1k submissions) there's at least 100-200 ghost books.

 

Brian

[Darthdiesel]

I'd guess that on heavily submitted books (over 1k submissions) there's at least 100-200 ghost books.

 

Brian

 

Really? Who would resubmit their Origin 1 and Spawn 1's?

[blowout]

I'd guess that on heavily submitted books (over 1k submissions) there's at least 100-200 ghost books.

 

Pure speculation. Where did you pluck this figure from?

[blowout]

I am also of the opinion the it is just too early to have much confidence in the accuracy of the CGC census in determining the scarcity of books. There are so many ungradded books out there that we need to give it a few more years at least before lending too much faith in the data.

[murph0]

The people who got back 9.6's? What would be the point of owning a CGC'd copy of this book unless it's 9.8 or better..

 

Brian

[murph0]

Just based on the amount of resubmits I know of as a fraction of the total census. I know for a fact that of the 152 books on the MTU 1 census, 10 are ghost books. Of the 147 for MS 5? I know of 15 resubs (5 of them were on account of me ).

Now, take the fact that Modern books are regularly resubmitted due to the miniscule differences in grades (a 9.6 looks like a 9.8 looks like a 9.9) and you have some pretty big numbers. I know of at least 30 Black Cover ASM 36's that have been resubbed and I don't even follow the modern slab market!

However, 100-200 is a guestimate but it is based on facts of resubmission patterns and $$$'s on return. IMO the way it is currently, moderns are resubbed the most, followed by silver, and then bronze. Most modern books that are submitted are (for the most part) submitted with the sole intent of reselling and the difference between 9.6 and 9.8 in modern books means a lot as some 9.6 moderns aren't even worth the cost of slabbing in 9.6

 

Brian

[chrisfuccione]

I am not sure if this will be taken as being off or on topic but I have a few questions. 1) How many collectors like raw comics verses how many like graded comics. Because on the coin side there is a lot more collectors that prefer their coins ungraded. Because of that there are many coins that are not included in a census. 2) How common is it where a comic book will be cracked out and resubmitted in hopes of getting a higher grade? On the coin side with some collectors this is a type of game where they will constantly resubmit the same coin over and over until they get the grade they want. This also will effect the census. CHRIS

[awe4one]

I like mine ungraded.

 

 

Jim

[MuadDib]

When do you guys speculate the market on certain CGC books getting more than 3 times their overstreet value begin to drop? Forget Modern books as slabbing them, in my opinion, is a waste of time....I am really only referring to key Bronze Age (9.4's and up) as well as Silver Age books (9.4's etc.). I mean we are already seeing a drop in value of certain key books. For example FF #48, because of oversubmission, is steadily losing its ~$1800.00 value. Also, how long do you guys see books like Tomb of Dracula 10 9.4, or even Brave & Bold 54 9.4 commanding waaaay over 3 times their overstreet value after a few more years? (Not bad books to have in a collection eh! , now I have reading copies b/c I collect first and for most for the stories, but should I get rid of the 9.4's when they are hot now or will they get hotter and potentially increase in value?)

 

Of course, with regards to Golden Age books, I believe that they should be slabbed for they are true collectors gems in VF or higher, never mind the key Golden Age books which should also be slabbed at G or higher (an a few Silver Age keys as well e.g. X-men 1, AF 1, ASM 1, FF 1 etc.)

[sfilosa]

I would guess that most of the huge increases in price have already occured for those books that "everyone already knows about".

 

You are correct that CGC NM Silver/Bronze Age books get around 300% of guide. I keep track of most Silver Age Marvel sales and I can say for a fact that X-Men is now getting (by far) the least premium for high-grade issues.

 

As the price of the book increase, I believe it will be harder to continue to get the same multiple.

 

Example: If guide list book X at $100 in NM, it might not be hard to get $300 if it is a book that has decent demand. On the other hand if book X guides for $1,000 it could be much harder to get the same multiple ($3,000) as many potential buyers do not have that type of money to spend on books.

 

 

To summarize my point: There is a "glass ceiling" effect to all books and as the prices continue to increase the multiple will decrease.

 

[shadroch]

Coins have been slabbed well over 10 years,as compared to a couple for comics. Has anyone attempted to compare the growth of coins in the coin census,and then extrapolate this to the comics census. For example- Has the growth in the census of Hi-grade Silver Dollars been steady at a 15% rate for the last decade. At this time there are few top coins on the market that have not been slabbed,but still quite a few in private collections. Yet the slabbing companies are still slabbing so they have not saturated the market.

[12c_Comic]

I think in the end the old economics philosophy of "Supply and Demand" will dictate if a comic will hold it's value in the long run.

[chrisfuccione]

Coins have been slabbed well over 10 years,as compared to a couple for comics. Has anyone attempted to compare the growth of coins in the coin census,and then extrapolate this to the comics census. For example- Has the growth in the census of Hi-grade Silver Dollars been steady at a 15% rate for the last decade. At this time there are few top coins on the market that have not been slabbed,but still quite a few in private collections. Yet the slabbing companies are still slabbing so they have not saturated the market.

 

 

That is a great question. I am going to post it on the coin side to get responce. CHRIS