2005 vs 2006 Overstreet prices - for MY 10,000th post

[FlyingDonut]

10,000 posts. Whoo hoo!

 

I appraised an original owner collection last summer. Guy bought comics off the stands in Oakland from 1962-1976 and then put them in a box. He sold everything he had in 2001 except his Spider-Mans, which he liked and kept. I graded these books pretty tight under Overstreet grading guidelines (no "qualified" grades, for example) and appraised them for insurance value - so these prices are straight Overstreet.

 

Very interesting comparison on these books from 2005 to 2006. Can we tell there was a movie about Spider-Man featuring Dr. Octopus in 2004? Why the huge jump on ASM 18?

 

thanks, btw, to Stronguy for the excel help

[Stronguy]

Congrats on the 10,000!

 

Wow! That's an ugly hit on the #3 -- $872.50. At least I'm glad to see that OS has started revising prices downward (without doing it across the board for everthing in "X" grade).

[ronm3-migration]

Congrats on the 10,000! :aclaim:

 

Wow! That's an ugly hit on the #3 -- $872.50. At least I'm glad to see that OS has started revising prices downward (without doing it across the board for everthing in "X" grade).

 

 

Congrats on the 10k!

That is good to see. I wonder how many books received a downgrade?

[skybolt]

Congratulations FD on 10,000 posts.

 

By the way, I own a 7.5 copy of ASM#3, and I don't remember it being valued at $2,630 last year. Are you sure that's not the VF value?

[FlyingDonut]

That could very easily be the answer. I'll have to look into it again.

[drice6900]

#3 in 6.0 is $672, in 8.0 is $1960. Definitely a mistake in the spreadsheet input. I think you put in the #2 price instead

[drice6900]

Same problem with #45

[FlyingDonut]

Same problem with #45

 

"operator error" I'll fix it and repost the link. Ignore those two for now.

[ronm3-migration]

Ahh man! What a bogus 10k post! Cant even get the info right! Stop drinking the Cabernet Sauvignon.

[FlyingDonut]

Ahh man! What a bogus 10k post! Cant even get the info right! Stop drinking the Cabernet Sauvignon.

 

No Cab for me. Bourbon.

 

I do apologize for [embarrassing lack of self control] the data up. I'll get it right tonight and post again.

[Comicdey]

10,000 posts. Whoo hoo!

 

I appraised an original owner collection last summer. Guy bought comics off the stands in Oakland from 1962-1976 and then put them in a box. He sold everything he had in 2001 except his Spider-Mans, which he liked and kept. I graded these books pretty tight under Overstreet grading guidelines (no "qualified" grades, for example) and appraised them for insurance value - so these prices are straight Overstreet.

 

Very interesting comparison on these books from 2005 to 2006. Can we tell there was a movie about Spider-Man featuring Dr. Octopus in 2004? Why the huge jump on ASM 18?

 

<iframe name="cwindow" width="95%" height=600 src="http://www.boxofcomics.com/pages/donut.html"></iframe>

thanks, btw, to Stronguy for the excel help

 

Your 10,000th post was flawed.......everyone will always remember the day and moment in time........

[lou_fine]

Since we are comparing 2006 OS prices to 2005 OS prices, I thought some of you would be interested in the following stats:

 

OS's Top 100 Golden Age Books:

-----------------------------------------

 

2006 Total Value = $5,228,450

2005 Total Value = $4,806,400

Total Value Increase = $422,050

% Value Increase = 10.88%

 

 

OS's Top 20 Silver Age Books:

--------------------------------------

 

2006 Total Value = $327,900

2005 Total Value = $314,250

Total Value Increase = $13,650

%Value Increase = 4.34%

 

 

That's now two years in a row that Overstreet's GA Index has virtually doubled the performance of the SA Index. The 2004 to 2005 comparison showed GA with a percentage increase of 9.41% while the SA Index came in at only 5.06%. Actually, both the past two years have been relative slow compared to the 2003 to 2004 increases which came in at approximately +23% to +24% for both GA and SA that year.

 

The increases the past two years seems to run counter to the hype we hear from CLink and Pedigree about runaway record prices on their SA books. At the same time, we seem to see a lot of GA books selling at close or slightly above guide depending upon the book, at auctions such as Heritage and Hake's.

 

Maybe it's a case of filtering out all of the hype since the record prices for SA tends to be really in the uber high grades with a lack of price support in the lower and mid grades. GA prices, although much more sedate still tends to show relatively more strength across the board in all grade levels as opposed to just high grade.

 

Would certainly love to hear what everybody else's opinions is on Overstreet's price changes from 2005 to 2006?

[Aman619]

not really. The top book lists are the most skewed segment of th ecomics market. AND, remember (asyou know all too well) the GA Guide price increases are NOT based on sales results. These are just Uncle Bobs Annual increases for most of the books on these lists. So he can raise them whatever he wants and we need to remember NOT to confuse the se Guide prices with real sales data.

 

Silver Age prices have far more data to work with, but, even here Guides prices still dont reflect reality. They lag it by years and 1000s on most of the books on the SA list.

 

So if I understood your point correctly, Overstreet is not stating or suggesting a booming GA market in NM- copies of the top 100 books. Just announcing another year's increase in their Guide prices.

[tth2]

The increases the past two years seems to run counter to the hype we hear from CLink and Pedigree about runaway record prices on their SA books. At the same time, we seem to see a lot of GA books selling at close or slightly above guide depending upon the book, at auctions such as Heritage and Hake's.

 

Maybe it's a case of filtering out all of the hype since the record prices for SA tends to be really in the uber high grades with a lack of price support in the lower and mid grades. GA prices, although much more sedate still tends to show relatively more strength across the board in all grade levels as opposed to just high grade.

Lou, YOU'RE the one who's constantly talking about how hot SA prices are, and how you wish GA books could catch on fire again like they did back in the 90s.

[lou_fine]

not really. The top book lists are the most skewed segment of th ecomics market. AND, remember (asyou know all too well) the GA Guide price increases are NOT based on sales results. These are just Uncle Bobs Annual increases for most of the books on these lists. So he can raise them whatever he wants and we need to remember NOT to confuse the se Guide prices with real sales data.

 

Silver Age prices have far more data to work with, but, even here Guides prices still dont reflect reality. They lag it by years and 1000s on most of the books on the SA list.

 

So if I understood your point correctly, Overstreet is not stating or suggesting a booming GA market in NM- copies of the top 100 books. Just announcing another year's increase in their Guide prices.

 

Aman;

 

Would generally agree with most of your points here.

 

The way I read it with respect to GA price increases are:

 

1) Increases of 7% - 12% means the market is holding steady or increasing slightly and OS is calling in some of his rainy day increases saved from previous years.

 

2) Increases of 2% - 5% means that prices are probably quite soft in the actual marketplace with OS calling in a bit of his rainy day increases.

 

3) Increases of 15% - to 30% means the market is red hot with OS holding back on the real increases and adding into his rainy day increases savings bank.

 

Would agree with you that OS probably has quite a few years of increases banked for the SA books in high grade. Unfortunately, this probably does not apply for most SA below 8.5 or so as the savings bank is overdrawn here. This has probably thrown a curve into the SA prices since OS simply hates to lower prices. He should probably bite the bullet here and just change the spread by lowering the mid grade prices and raising the high grade prices. OS doesn't have the same problem with the GA prices since the spreads are relatively more accurate as books tend to sell around or slightly above guide across the board in all grade levels.

[Aman619]

right. Bob when he cant raise the top price, he's been increasing the spreads by lowering the VF on down. His spreads are all over the map now...from 1:3:6 all the way up to 1:3:40 for the top books. Most books fall into the 1:3:9 thru 1:3:12 range. Most keys are 1:3:15 except the tippy top issues.

 

overall though, the prices are just a curiousity for all actively traded comics. Used to be we bought books in a vacuum: dealer sets a price, and we decided based on the copy's condition and the Guide price (and dealers reputation!). We had very little access to what anyone else was paying for similar books, and, had NO WAY of knowing which two copies WERE similar in grade. Just had to grab our wallets (or other stuff) and pony up! Or pass.

 

Now we can look up real sales data, or witness it ourselves online. So obviously, Bobs lagging curved pricing is really only useful for th ebooks that dont change hands all that much as a benchmark (guide). Its not totally irrelevant....just for the good stuff!

[Wally's Comics]

well FD's stats could be wrong,

but one thing I know is right...

 

ASM #14 took a hit in 8.0 (down $90)

First Goblin

 

and

 

ASM #25 went down too ( I think it was 40 bucks down)

First Mary Jane

 

both of these are puzzlers to me since I have seen them going strong on eBay

all last year...

 

I must be missing something...

 

 

but, I must say is that flutuations in the market are a possitive sign -

I just hope it is correct...

 

( haven't seen any ASM 1-50 keys go down in years)

 

 

[the blob]

given that the top 100 GA books practically don't exist in NM in many cases (or, are perhaps more likely to be tucked away deep in someone's vault), while the top 100 SA usually do, those OPG numbers are sort of random.

 

plus, are those the prices for 9.4s? Isn't the silliness mainly in 9.6+?

[HouseofComics.Com]

3) Increases of 15% - to 30% means the market is red hot with OS holding back on the real increases and adding into his rainy day increases savings bank.

 

 

Good post.

[OldGuy]

on the 10k